中国不同区域能源消费碳足迹的时空变化(英文)

Study on regional carbon emission is one of the hot topics under the background of global climate change and low-carbon economic development, and also help to establish different low-carbon strategies for different regions. On the basis of energy consumption and land use data of different regions in China from 1999 to 2008, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint models based on total energy consumption, and calculated the amount of carbon emissions and carbon footprint in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. The author also analyzed carbon emission density and per unit area carbon footprint for each region. Finally, advices for decreasing carbon footprint were put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions from total energy consumption increased 129% from 1999 to 2008 in China, but its spatial distribution pattern among different regions just slightly changed, the sorting of carbon emission amount was: Eastern China > Northern China > Central and Southern China > Southwest China > Northwest China. (2) The sorting of carbon emission density was: Eastern China > Northeast China > Central and Southern China > Northern China > Southwest China > Northwest China from 1999 to 2003, but from 2004 Central and Southern China began to have higher carbon emission density than Northeast China, the order of other regions did not change. (3) Carbon footprint increased significantly since the rapid increasing of carbon emissions and less increasing area of pro-ductive land in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. Northern China had the largest carbon footprint, and Northwest China, Eastern China, Northern China, Central and Southern China followed in turn, while Southwest China presented the lowest area of carbon footprint and the highest percentage of carbon absorption. (4) Mainly influenced by regional land area, Northern China presented the highest per unit area carbon footprint and followed by Eastern China, and Northeast China; Central and Southern China, and Northwest China had a similar medium per unit area carbon footprint; Southwest China always had the lowest per unit area carbon footprint. (5) China faced great ecological pressure brought by carbon emission. Some measures should be taken both from reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon absorption.     

京、津、冀地区的碳排放趋势估计

通过多种方法相结合,估计了京、津、冀地区2009-2050年的能源碳排放量、水泥工艺碳排放量和森林碳汇量,计算了区域总的碳排放量和净碳排放量。结果表明:1)京、津、冀地区碳排放量都呈现先升后降的Kuznets趋势,森林年碳汇量对碳排放降低影响不明显;2)在自由排放条件下,北京、天津均在2030年前达到碳排放高峰期,河北省及整个京津冀地区的碳排放高峰将延迟到2039年;3)在2050年前,北京、天津年碳汇量将有所降低,河北年碳汇量则上升。     

我国城市居民直接能耗的碳排放类型及影响因素

针对我国287个地级以上城市,在测算了近9年居民直接能耗导致的CO₂排放量的基础上,进行聚类、对比,并分析城市居民直接能耗的碳排放影响因素,得到以下结论:全国分为6类城市居民直接能耗碳排放类型;高碳排放型城市的地均碳排放强度、人均工资碳排放强度及居民直接能耗CO₂排放总量等方面均比低碳排放型城市高,人均地方生产总值碳排放强度低于低碳排放型城市,并多为经济发达城市和资源丰富城市,其碳排放构成上分别以电、交通能耗碳排放和气碳排放为主导,高碳排放型城市居民直接能耗CO₂排放量占全国地级以上城市的86.20%。我国大部分地级城市居民直接能耗的碳排放属于相对低碳排放型,其人均CO₂排放量低于全国平均水平。城市所在地的降温度日数(CDD)、采暖期、采暖强度、人均能源供给量、居民的人均工资、城市人均地方生产总值是影响城市居民直接能耗CO₂排放量的主要因素。     

Growing up and cleaning up: The environmental Kuznets curve redux

Borrowing from the Kuznets curve literature, researchers have coined the term “environmental Kuznets curve” or EKC to characterize the relationship between pollution levels and income: pollution levels will increase with income but some threshold of income will eventually be reached, beyond which pollution levels will decrease. The link between the original Kuznets curve, which posited a similar relationship between income and inequality, and its pollution-concerned offspring lies primarily with the shape of both curves (an upside-down U) and the central role played by income change. Although the EKC literature has burgeoned over the past several years, few concrete conclusions have been drawn, the main themes of the literature have remained constant, and no consensus has been reached regarding the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve. EKC research has used a variety of types of data and a range of geographical units to examine the effects of income levels on pollution. Changes in pollution levels might also be at least partly explained by countries’ position in the demographic transition and their general population structure, however little research has included this important aspect in the analysis. In addition, few analyses confine themselves to an evaluation for one country of the long-term relationship between income and pollution. Using United States CO₂ emissions as well as demographic, employment, trade and energy price data, this paper seeks to highlight the potential impact of population and economic structure in explaining the relationship between income and pollution levels.     

Impacts of Global Emissions of CO, NOx, and CH4 on China Tropospheric Hydroxyl Free Radicals

Using the global chemistry and transport model MOZART,the simulated distributions of tropospheric hydroxyl free radicals(OH) over China and its sensitivities to global emissions of carbon monoxide(CO),nitrogen oxide(NO x),and methane(CH 4) were investigated in this study.Due to various distributions of OH sources and sinks,the concentrations of tropospheric OH in east China are much greater than in west China.The contribution of NO + perhydroxyl radical(HO 2) reaction to OH production in east China is more pronounced than that in west China,and because of the higher reaction activity of non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOCs),the contributions to OH loss by NMVOCs exceed those of CO and take the dominant position in summer.The results of the sensitivity runs show a significant increase of tropospheric OH in east China from 1990 to 2000,and the trend continues.The positive effect of double emissions of NO x on OH is partly offset by the contrary effect of increased CO and CH 4 emissions:the double emissions of NO x will cause an increase of OH of 18.1%-30.1%,while the increases of CO and CH 4 will cause a decrease of OH of 12.2%-20.8% and 0.3%-3.0%,respectively.In turn,the lifetimes of CH 4,CO,and NO x will increase by 0.3%-3.1% with regard to double emissions of CH 4,13.9%-26.3% to double emissions of CO and decrease by 15.3%-23.2% to double emissions of NO x.     

Impacts of Future NOx and CO Emissions on Regional Chemistry and Climate over Eastern China

A coupled chemical/dynamical model (SOCOL-SOlar Climate Ozone Links) is applied to study the impacts of future enhanced CO and NOx emissions over eastern China on regional chemistry and climate. The result shows that the increase of CO and NOx emissions has significant effects on regional chemistry, including NOx, CO, O₃, and OH concentrations. During winter, the CO concentration is uniformly increased in the northern hemisphere by about 10 ppbv. During summer, the increase of CO has a regional distribution. The change in O₃, concentrations near eastern China has both strong seasonal and spatial variations. During winter, the surface O₃, concentrations decrease by about 2 ppbv, while during summer they increase by about 2 ppbv in eastern China. The changes of CO, NOx, and O₃, induce important impacts on OH concentrations. The changes in chemistry, especially O₃, induce important effects on regional climate. The analysis suggests that during winter, the surface temperature decreases and air pressure increases in central-eastern China. The changes of temperature and pressure produce decreases in vertical velocity. We should mention that the model resolution is coarse, and the calculated concentrations are generally underestimated when they are compared to measured results. However, because this model is a coupled dynamical/chemical model, it can provide some useful insights regarding the climate impacts due to changes in air pollutant emissions.     

以科学发展观为指导，积极应对气候变化

气候变化已经对全球生态、环境、经济和社会可持续发展以及外交和国家安全产生极大影响,引起各国政府、公众和学术界的极大关注。气候变化关系人类的生存和发展,应对气候变化实现可持续发展具有重要性和紧迫性。我们要以科学发展观为指导,把握好共同但有区别的责任,积极应对气候变化。     

种植不同作物对农田N2O和CH4排放的影响及其驱动因子

以种植玉米(Zea mays)、大豆(Glycine max)和水稻(Oryza sativa)的农田生态系统为研究对象,于2003年6~10月系统观测了N2O和CH4的排放、土壤温度和湿度以及相关的生物学因子。玉米和水稻分别施化肥氮300 kg.hm-2,大豆未施氮肥。研究结果表明,作物类型对农田N2O和CH4排放具有显著的影响。土壤-玉米系统、土壤-大豆系统和土壤-水稻系统的N2O季节性平均排放通量分别为620.5±57.6、338.0±7.5和238.8±13.6μg.m-2.h-1(N2O)。种植作物促进了农田生态系统的N2O排放,玉米地土壤和裸地土壤的N2O平均排放通量分别为364.2±11.7和163.7±10.5μg.m-2.h-1(N2O)。土壤-玉米系统、土壤-水稻系统、玉米地土壤和裸地土壤N2O排放受土壤温度的影响,与土壤湿度无显著统计相关,但受土壤温度和水分的综合影响。土壤-大豆系统N2O排放随作物绿叶干重的增加而指数增加,与土壤温度和水分条件无统计相关,由大豆作物自身氮代谢所产生的N2O-N季节总量约为6.2 kg.hm-2(N)。土壤-水稻系统CH4平均排放通量为1.7±0.1 mg.m-2.h-1(CH4),烤田抑制了稻田CH4的排放。烤田前影响稻田CH4排放的主要因素是水稻生物量,烤田后的浅水灌溉及湿润灌溉阶段的CH4排放与土壤温度和水稻生物量无关。本研究未观测到旱作农田有吸收CH4的现象。     

城市地铁对沿线居民通勤交通碳排放的影响 ——以郑州市为例

基于郑州市地铁1号线、2号线周边11个典型社区的居民调查数据,对地铁开通前后居民通勤交通碳排放进行了核算,从职业、收入和距离等方面分析了地铁沿线居民通勤交通碳排放的影响因素,结果表明:(1)地铁1号线开通后人均通勤碳排放减少18%,地铁2号线开通后减少43%;(2)不同职业类型的居民在地铁开通后通勤碳减排比例由高到低依次为教师、公司职员、其他、工人、公务员;(3)居民收入与通勤交通碳排放量成正相关,与地铁开通后的碳减排比例呈负相关;(4)居民通勤碳减排率与居住地到最近地铁站的距离成负相关,地铁开通后距离地铁站为0~1,1~2,2~3 km的小区人均通勤碳排放减少率分别52.76%,41.12%,24.36%。     

The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century.