长期天气预报中有关预报因子的若干探讨

目前行之有效的长期天气预报方法都是数理统计方法。本文以江淮流域夏季旱涝的长期预报为例，对有关预报因子的几个问题作了探索。挑选有实际天气学意义、各自独立、单相关系数较高的物理因子作预报因子，更有利于提高预报准确率，预报因子的时间尺度以月、季平均值最为适宜，而以三个旬滑动平均值的效果最佳，建立各种预报量的初选、精选因子库，更适用于计算机技术制作长期预报。     

贻贝(Mytilus edulis)的核型与减数分裂

利用体内注射ＰＨＡ和秋水仙素的方法，以锶和生殖腺为材料，对贻贝ＭｙｔｉｌｕｓｅｄｕｌｉｓＬｉｎｎａｅｕｓ的核型和减数分裂进行了观察分析，结果为，二倍体数２ｎ＝２８，核型为１０ｍ＋１２ｓｍ＋６ｓｔ，ＮＦ＝５０。没有发现异形性染色体，贻贝的减数分裂与其他动物类似，也没有发现异形染色体的特殊行为。     

黄海北部降水中氟的浓度变化

1988～1992年连续采集了黄海西北部的大气降水,分析样品中的氟而得到的80多个数据显示出大气降水中氟的平均浓度低于中国北方主要河流的氟平均浓度。在冬季,氟的浓度较其他季节高,这可能和降雨量减少以及人为因素等密切相关。目前还难以估算出人为因素对氟在降水中化学行为的影响程度,但数据显示出人口密集地区降水中氟的浓度明显高于人口稀疏的自然地带。     

三峡工程对长江口区无脊椎动物资源影响的预测

长江大量径流给其河口及邻近海域带来丰富的营养物质,维持了长江河口生态系统的巨大生产力,并使之成为多种重要经济鱼虾类的索饵和产卵场。长江口生态环境的变化,对我国最大、最重要的浙江舟山渔场和江苏吕四渔场的渔业资源有举足轻重的影响。三峡工程的兴建将使长江入海径流量及其季节分配有很大改变,也不可避免地影响到河口和近海的海洋环境、经济动物的组成及资源状况。为研究长江口无脊椎动物资源结构及其分布特征,以及预测三峡工程对自然生态环境的影响,于1985年9月至1986年8月进行了无脊椎动物资源底拖网试捕调查。本文系统整理调查所得资料,结合历史资料进行分析研究。     

Calculating Pollution Indices by Heavy Metals in Ecological Geochemistry Assessment and a Case Study in Parks of Beijing

Pollution index is a powerful tool for ecological geochemistry assessment. The commonly used pollution indices by heavy metals in soils and sediments were classified as two types of single index and integrated index in an algorithm point of view. Four single indices of contamination factor (or concentration factor), ecological risk factor, enrichment factor, and index of geo-accumulation were illustrated, and the reference values for calculating single indices were distinguished into background levels and threshold pollution values. Eight integrated indices were divided into two groups. One group is suitable for the normal distribution single indices including the sum, average, weighted average,vector modulus, and Nemerow pollution indices, and the other for log-normal distribution including the product, root of product, and weighted power product pollution indices. Using background levels as reference values, five contamination classes were divided, and the terminologies are suggested for the single and integrated indices to unify the assessment results. Software of EGAPI was developed in a single document interface to calculate the four single and eight integrated indices by heavy metals to assess the quality of soil and sediment ecological geochemistry. Pollution indices by heavy metals of Cu,Pb, and Zn in soils in parks of Beijing were calculated using EGAPI software, and these five contamination classes and terminologies suggested in this study were evaluated and used. Results ofintegrated indices of Cu, Pb, and Zn in soils indicated that the soil qualities are unpolluted as a whole and varied from low polluted to unpolluted status from the center to the outskirts of Beijing City.     

基于模糊神经网络的义县萤石成矿预测

成矿预测的模糊综合评判方法中评价因素权重确定时具有较强的人为因素,模糊神经网络方法可以建立在无模型基础上,自动获取输入与输出的关系,在专家确定权重初始值的情况下,通过网络训练确定出最优权重值,这在一定程度上减少了人为因素的影响.应用该方法对义县萤石成矿远景区进行了评价,其评价结果与实际一致.表明该方法可推广到其他区域、其他矿种的预测,但应根据预测对象的实际情况建立控矿因素集和相应的隶属度函数.     

Response of riparian vegetation to water-table changes in the lower reaches of Tarim River, Xinjiang Uygur, China

The lower reaches of Tarim River in the Xinjiang Uygur region of western China had been dried out for more than 30 years before water began to be diverted from Konqi (Peacock) River via a 927-km-long channel in year 2000, aimed at improving the riparian ecological systems. Since then, eight intermittent water deliveries have been carried out. To evaluate the response of riparian vegetation to these operations, the groundwater regime and vegetation changes have been monitored along the 350-km-long stem of the river using a network of 40 dug wells at nine transects across the river and 30 vegetation plots at key sites. Results show that the water table rose remarkably, i.e. from a depth of 9.87 m before the water delivery to 3.16 m after the third water delivery. The lateral distance of affected water table extended to 1,050 m from the riverbank after the fourth water delivery. The riparian vegetation has changed in composition, type, distribution, and growing behavior. This shows that the water deliveries have had significant effects on restoration of riparian ecosystems.     

贵州省大方县五凤井田水文地质特征初探

五风井田位于贵州省大方县城东侧,面积89.22km^2,含煤地层为二叠系上统龙潭组,主要可采煤层为6中、26、33号煤层,煤炭总资源量26 130万t。井田内主要含水层为三叠系茅草铺组岩溶溶洞含水层（T1m）,夜郎组玉龙山灰岩岩溶裂隙含水层T1y2）,二叠系中统长兴组岩溶裂隙含水层（P3c）、茅口组岩溶溶洞-暗河含水层（P2m）。矿床属于以岩溶充水为主,水文地质条件中等的矿床。井田的充水水源为地表水、地下水和小煤矿、采空区的老窑积水,充水通道为断裂破碎带及采矿冒落裂隙带。     

生物炭对磷石膏中磷的固化作用

磷石膏中的磷在雨水淋滤作用下浸出,将污染堆场附近水体。本研究采用生物炭固化磷石膏中的磷,以减少其对周遭水体的污染。主要通过模拟固化实验和对照浸出实验,分析生物炭用量、反应时间和温度、初始pH值对固化效果的影响,通过XRD、SEM-EDS分析固化后的生成物。实验结果显示,在生物炭用量为25 mg时,单位固化量达到最大值13.20 mg/g;在反应温度T=293 K、初始pH=7条件下,反应平衡时间72 h时浸出液的磷平衡浓度C_e= 1.40 mg/L;温度提升有助于提高生物炭的固化效果,当T=308 K时,浸出液的磷平衡浓度C_e=0.167 mg/L;碱性条件有利于固化反应持续进行,在pH=11条件下,浸出液的磷平衡浓度C_e=0.153 mg/L。实验结果表明生物炭对磷石膏中的磷具有明显的固化效果。磷石膏中的二水硫酸钙溶解后,Ca²⁺与表面带负电的生物炭结合,在生物炭显微结构的凹陷处,化学吸附溶液中的磷酸根生成了絮状、团簇状的羟基磷灰石(HAP)沉淀,从而使浸出磷得到有效控制。     

防雷减灾公众服务满意度测评与服务分析——以大连市1523份调查问卷为例

公众对于预警信号的等级认识度较低,还不能完全通过红色、黄色、橙色预警信息准确获知雷电灾害的严重程度。2016年,国务院提出“放、管、服”机构改革指导意见,大连市防雷减灾中心在新要求、新形势下,深入挖掘多种服务渠道,提升服务水平。目前大众对防雷安全的认知度、防雷服务的满意度如何,以及影响其结果的因素又有哪些,是下一步工作需要了解的重要问题。