玉门、民乐等地震前跨断层形变异常及与定点前兆观测的相互印证

2002年甘肃玉门5.9级、2003年民乐6.1、5.8级及岷县5.2级地震前震区周围十几至二、三百公里范围内观测到一定数量、明显的跨断层短水准形变异常,其异常形态以加速、突跳或尖点突跳为主,具中期背景或短期前兆意义,反映震前断裂出现先逆断增强后松弛的变化过程,在转折松弛时段易发生地震.其异常空间分布、出现时间等与定点前兆异常具有较好的相互印证意义.     

Pdif震相在CDSN兰州地震台的记录特征

通过对CDSN兰州地震台1990-2000年间31个极远震记录的分析,得到了Pdif震相在CDSN宽频带数字地震仪上的运动学和动力学特征;给出了兰州地震台Pdif震相走时便查表,以便分析时查询比较.所得结果有助于提高地震速报能力和积累震相分析经验,有助于对核幔边界物理性质的认识.     

地震作用下非贯通节理岩体斜坡破坏的物理模型试验研究

地震作用下高斜坡破坏的发生发展过程比较短暂、剧烈,破坏机理相对复杂。本文采用模型试验的方法来研究地震作用下非贯通节理岩体斜坡的反应。试验结果表明:节理上的应变最大,模型上部应变大于下部应变;节理贯通机理复杂,多为拉剪复合型破坏;节理的贯通并不意味着斜坡的破坏,而是破坏了斜坡的整体性,使其处于临界状态。试验揭示了此类斜坡在地震作用下的动力响应及破坏机理,可为理论和工程实践应用提供有益的参考和指导。     

The role of winter phenology in shaping the ecology of freshwater fish and their sensitivities to climate change

Thermal preference and performance provide the physiological frame within which fish species seek strategies to cope with the challenges raised by the low temperatures and low levels of oxygen and food that characterize winter. There are two common coping strategies: active utilization of winter conditions or simple toleration of winter conditions. The former is typical of winter specialist species with low preferred temperatures, and the latter is typical of species with higher preferred temperatures. Reproductive strategies are embodied in the phenology of spawning: the approach of winter conditions cues reproductive activity in many coldwater fish species, while the departure of winter conditions cues reproduction in many cool and warmwater fish species. This cuing system promotes temporal partitioning of the food resources available to young-of-year fish and thus supports high diversity in freshwater fish communities. If the zoogeographic distribution of a species covers a broad range of winter conditions, local populations may exhibit differences in their winter survival strategies that reflect adaptation to local conditions. Extreme winter specialists are found in shallow eutrophic lakes where long periods of ice cover cause winter oxygen levels to drop to levels that are lethal to many fish. The fish communities of these lakes are simple and composed of species that exhibit specialized adaptations for extended tolerance of very low temperatures and oxygen levels. Zoogeographic boundaries for some species may be positioned at points on the landscape where the severity of winter overwhelms the species’ repertoire of winter survival strategies. Freshwater fish communities are vulnerable to many of the shifts in environmental conditions expected with climate change. Temperate and northern communities are particularly vulnerable since the repertoires of physiological and behavioural strategies that characterize many of their members have been shaped by the adverse environmental conditions (e.g. cool short summers, long cold winters) that climate change is expected to mitigate. The responses of these strategies to the rapid relaxation of the adversities that shaped them will play a significant role in the overall responses of these fish populations and their communities to climate change.     

Effects of pollen leaching and microbial degradation on organic carbon and nutrient availability in lake water

Nutrient fluxes across terrestrial-aquatic boundaries and their subsequent integration into lake nutrient cycles are currently a major topic of aquatic research. Although pollen represents a good substrate for microorganisms, it has been neglected as a terrestrial source of organic matter in lakes. In laboratory experiments, we incubated pollen grains of Pinus sylvestris in water of lakes with different trophy and pH to estimate effects of pollen input and its subsequent microbial degradation on nutrient dynamics. In this ex situ experiment, we measured concentrations of organic carbon, phosphorus and nitrogen in the surrounding water as well as microbial dynamics (bacteria and fungal sporangia) at well-controlled conditions. Besides leaching, chemical and microbial decomposition of pollen was strongest within the first week of incubation. This led to a marked increase of soluble reactive phosphorus and total dissolved nitrogen (up to 0.04 and 1.5 mg L⁻¹, respectively, after 5 days of incubation) in the ambient water. In parallel, pollen grains were rapidly colonized by heterotrophic bacteria and aquatic fungi. Leaching and microbial degradation of pollen accounted for ≥80, ≥40, ≥50% for organic C, N and P, respectively, and did not significantly differ among water samples from the studied lakes. Thus, pollen introduces high amounts of bio-available terrestrial organic matter and nutrients into surface waters within a short time. A rough calculation on P input into oligotrophic Lake Stechlin indicates that pollen plays an important ecological role in nutrient cycling of temperate lakes. This requires further attention in aquatic ecology.     

Experimental testing, numerical modelling and seismic strengthening of traditional stone masonry: comprehensive study of a real Azorian pier

Stone masonry is one of the oldest building techniques used worldwide and it is known to exhibit poor behaviour under seismic excitations. In this context, this work aims at assessing the in-plane behaviour of an existing double-leaf stone masonry pier by experimental testing. Additionally, a detailed 3D finite element numerical analysis based on micro-modelling of the original pier is presented (fully describing the geometry and division of each individual elements, namely infill, blocks and joints) aiming at simulating the experimental test results. This numerical strategy can be seen as an alternative way of analysing this type of constructions, particularly useful for laboratory studies, and suitable for the calibration of simplified numerical models. As part of a wider research activity, this work is further complemented with the presentation of an effective retrofit/strengthening technique (reinforced connected plaster) to achieve a significant improvement of its in-plane cyclic response which is experimentally verified in the results presented herein.     

Extracting sea level residual in tidally dominated estuarine environments

Sea level comprises a mean level, tidal elevation and a residual elevation. Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. However, different methods to extract deviations in water level (residuals) from modelled and observed elevation can give different results. The Dee Estuary, northwest England is a macrotidal estuary that undergoes periodic stratification. It is used here to demonstrate methods to extract the residual water level in response to the following interactive processes: tidal, river-induced stratification and flow, meteorology and waves. Using modelling techniques, the interaction and contribution of different physical processes are investigated. Classical harmonic tidal analysis, model simulations and filtering techniques have been used to “de-tide” the total elevation for short-term (approximately month long) records. Each technique gives a different result highlighting the need to select the correct method for a required study. Analysis of the residual components demonstrates that all processes inducing residuals interact with the tide generating a semi-diurnal residual component. It is suggested that modelling methods enable the full effect of tidal interaction to remain in the residual, whilst harmonic tidal analysis (partly) modify and filtering methods (fully) remove this component of the residual. The analysis methods presented and their influences on the resultant residual are applicable to other study sites. However, when applied specifically to the mouth of the Dee Estuary, the external surge is found to be the main contributor to the total residual, whilst local wind and stratification effects are of secondary importance.     

Extreme flows and unusual water levels near a Caribbean coral reef: was this a case of a “perfect storm”?

Observations of currents aimed to study the flow near a spawning aggregation reef, Gladden Spit off the coast of Belize, reveal unusually strong currents on 19–20 October 2009 (the current speed was over 1?m?s^?1, when the mean and standard deviation are 0.2?±?0.12?m?s^?1). During this short time, the water level was raised by 60–70?cm above normal in one place, but lowered by 10–20?cm in another location just 2?km away. The temperature dropped by over 2°C within a few hours. Analyses of local and remote sensing data suggest that a rare combination of an offshore Caribbean cyclonic eddy, a short-lived local tropical storm, and a Spring tide, all occurred at the same time and creating a “perfect storm” condition that resulted in the unusual event. High-resolution simulations and momentum balance analysis demonstrate how the unique shape of the coral reef amplified the coastal current through nonlinear flow–topography interactions. The suggested mechanism for the water level change is different than the classical wind-driven storm surge process. The study has implications for the influence of external forcing on mixing processes and physical–biological interactions near coral reefs.     

Dynamics of the circulation in the Sea of Marmara: numerical modeling experiments and observations from the Turkish straits system experiment

During September 2008 and February 2009, the NR/V Alliance extensively sampled the waters of the Sea of Marmara within the framework of the Turkish Straits System (TSS) experiment coordinated by the NATO Undersea Research Centre. The observational effort provided an opportunity to set up realistic numerical experiments for modeling the observed variability of the Marmara Sea upper layer circulation at mesoscale resolution over the entire basin during the trial period, complementing relevant features and forcing factors revealed by numerical model results with information acquired from in situ and remote sensing datasets. Numerical model solutions from realistic runs using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) produce a general circulation in the Sea of Marmara that is consistent with previous knowledge of the circulation drawn from past hydrographic measurements, with a westward meandering current associated with a recurrent large anticyclone. Additional idealized numerical experiments illuminate the role various dynamics play in determining the Sea of Marmara circulation and pycnocline structure. Both the wind curl and the strait flows are found to strongly influence the strength and location of the main mesoscale features. Large displacements of the pycnocline depth were observed during the sea trials. These displacements can be interpreted as storm-driven upwelling/downwelling dynamics associated with northeasterly winds; however, lateral advection associated with flow from the Straits also played a role in some displacements.     

BAKTRAK: backtracking drifting objects using an iterative algorithm with a forward trajectory model

The task of determining the origin of a drifting object after it has been located is highly complex due to the uncertainties in drift properties and environmental forcing (wind, waves, and surface currents). Usually, the origin is inferred by running a trajectory model (stochastic or deterministic) in reverse. However, this approach has some severe drawbacks, most notably the fact that many drifting objects go through nonlinear state changes underway (e.g., evaporating oil or a capsizing lifeboat). This makes it difficult to naively construct a reverse-time trajectory model which realistically predicts the earliest possible time the object may have started drifting. We propose instead a different approach where the original (forward) trajectory model is kept unaltered while an iterative seeding and selection process allows us to retain only those particles that end up within a certain time–space radius of the observation. An iterative refinement process named BAKTRAK is employed where those trajectories that do not make it to the goal are rejected, and new trajectories are spawned from successful trajectories. This allows the model to be run in the forward direction to determine the point of origin of a drifting object. The method is demonstrated using the leeway stochastic trajectory model for drifting objects due to its relative simplicity and the practical importance of being able to identify the origin of drifting objects. However, the methodology is general and even more applicable to oil drift trajectories, drifting ships, and hazardous material that exhibit nonlinear state changes such as evaporation, chemical weathering, capsizing, or swamping. The backtracking method is tested against the drift trajectory of a life raft and is shown to predict closely the initial release position of the raft and its subsequent trajectory.