Emergency alternative evaluation and selection based on ANP,DEMATEL, and TL-TOPSIS

With the increasing occurrence frequency of emergency events, emergency management (EM) has been a very important issue in management science. One of the major activities of EM is to evaluate and select the most desirable emergency alternative(s). This paper proposes a new framework combining the analytic network process (ANP) method, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, and 2-tuple linguistic technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TL-TOPSIS) method to solve the emergency alternative evaluation and selection problem. This study has been done in three stages. In the first stage, we use DEMATEL technique to obtain the network relation map (NRM) among emergency alternative evaluation criteria or sub-criteria. In the second stage, we use ANP method to calculate the global weight of each sub-criterion based on the NRM among emergency alternative evaluation sub-criteria. In the third stage, the ratings of emergency alternative with respect to each sub-criterion are described by linguistic items, and the TL-TOPSIS method is used to rank the emergency alternative. Finally, a practical example of urban fire emergency alternative selection is given to illustrate the application of the proposed framework.

     

双循环新格局下重庆市城镇化发展动力与实现路径

源于时代之变而构筑的双循环新发展格局是市场经济条件下多尺度空间输出理论与劳动地域大分工的“叠加”,为新型城镇化发展带来新的动力源泉。为了揭示这种影响,首先将科技创新和制度改革这2个城镇化发展动力外生变量内生化,构建基于“四维驱动力模型+创新力+制度力”的城镇化动力因子分析框架,结合主成分回归模型对2000年以来重庆市城镇化发展动力进行分析,并据此引入波特的“钻石模型”对其城镇化发展路径进行系统思考。结果表明：1）纳入动力因子体系的创新力和制度力对重庆市城镇化发展产生显著的正向驱动效应,其中创新力表现最为明显。2）重庆市城镇化发展是“六维力”共同作用的结果,但市场力和行政力依然是最主要的驱动力;其次是创新力、内源力和外向力,其中创新力对城镇化发展的驱动效应已在阶段2（2010—2018年）超越行政力的作用效应;最后是制度力;间接反映重庆市城镇化本身是一个内生作用的过程,构筑“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”新发展格局具有客观必然性和前瞻性。3）基于波特“钻石模型”分析指出：重庆市存在增长极体量小、市场购买力不足、产品低端化、同质化现象严重等问题,并据此从发展高级生产要素、创造统一的要素自由流动市场,通过“扩内需、调结构、深化对外开放”扩大市场需求,促进城市发展,培育与发展主导产业及其配套产业,抓住机遇“走出去”和建设高质量的服务型政府6个维度对其城镇化高质量发展的实现路径展开具体对策与建议的思考。     

DOGRAFS温度和风场的预报检验

利用新疆2012年11月1日至2013年10月31日的地面2米温度和10米风场资料,对应用改进后的新疆快速更新循环数值预报同化系统(XJ-RUC)的预报效果进行检验。结果表明：XJ-RUC系统对地面2米温度和10米风场的预报均方根误差和偏差随起报时次和预报时效的不同存在差异,在温度预报方面存在“低温偏高,高温偏低”的趋势,夏、秋、冬三季对18UTC预报最好,春季则对00UTC的预报接近实况;10米风场的预报偏差在冬季随时效推进逐渐增大,春、夏、秋三季则在06UTC出现1.0m/s左右的风速偏差极小值。不论是温度还是风速预报,均在冬季效果最差。     

Empirical formula for wave length of ocean wave in finite depth water

In this paper, function characteristics of dispersion of ocean wave in finite depth water were analyzed systematically. The functional form of the fitting function is reasonably proposed, in which the parameters are optimally determined by the least square method （LSM）. For infinitely deep and extremely shallow water,the fitting function fits strictly the dispersion to be fitted. A new technique is presented in application of LSM.An empirical formula with maximum error of less than 0.5% for computing wavelength in finite depth water is presented for practical applications.     

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

测绘工程专业人力资源现状与毕业生需求研究

随着国民经济的快速发展,测绘行业得到了迅速发展壮大.江苏省是测绘人力资源大省,同时是测绘教育大省.通过抽样调查方法对江苏省测绘工程专业人力资源现状与毕业生需求情况进行了详细研究.研究得出江苏省测绘行业人才队伍不断壮大,未来需求量不断增加,有利于毕业生就业.     

GPS技术在滑坡变形监测中的应用

首先阐明滑坡监测的重要性和必要性，然后分析常规滑坡监测的大地测量技术，并重点介绍了GPS技术应用滑坡监测的优缺点。接着根据GPS天线阵列技术和滑坡监测要求，设计了一套GPS天线阵列滑坡监测系统，并在一个电站的滑坡进行现场测试，对数据处理结果的精度和监测系统的硬件成本进行了比较分析，最后作者认为：GPS技术是一种很好滑坡监测方法，特别是GPS天线阵列技术，其成本低廉，更容易建立远程自动化滑坡监测系统，有很好的实际意义和广阔的市场前景.     

Semi-empirical models of the white-light flare on October 24, 1991

On October 24, 1991, a white-light flare was observed both from space and from the ground. A multi-waveband spectral analysis shows that the peak time of the continuum emission coincides well with that of a radio burst at 2840 MHz and with the hard X-ray emission. Three semi-empirical models, corresponding to the pre-flare condition and to the peak time of continuum emission both with and without non-thermal excitation and ionization of hydrogen by an electron beam, have been obtained. The results indicate that there is fast heating both in the chromosphere and the photosphere. Some evidence is given that this WLF is very likely a result of bombardment by an electron beam. By taking into account non-thermal effects, the chromospheric temperature of the semi-empirical model is significantly reduced.     

1991年10月24日白光耀斑的高时间分辨率多波段光谱分析

本文分析了南京大学太阳塔1991年10月24日用多波段光谱仪观测到的高时间分辨率（5s）的一个2N／X2．1级白光耀斑光谱．对耀斑谱线轮廓、连续发射强度、X射线和射电爆发资料进行了综合对比，分析表明，该耀斑属Ⅰ类白光耀斑，具有如下特征：（1）在白光耀斑的脉冲相期间，各波段光谱线心强度、连续辐射、谱线半宽以及线翼红不对称性与硬X射线高能波段的爆发同时达到极大；（2）H_a谱线在连续发射极大时半宽达10A，且呈现强烈的线心反转，H_β和H_γ线心亦有反转；（3）所拍摄的5条谱线都有明显的红不对称性，持续时间约为1分钟，根据上述结果，本文用电子束轰击、色球蒸发和色球压缩区对该耀斑能量积聚和释放的动力学机制作了定性的分析和解释。