A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

济南市长清区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

基于自然灾害形成机理及风险评估原理,利用济南市长清区气象数据、自然地理和社会经济等数据,建立起致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标,采用加权综合评价法和层次分析法,借助GIS空间分析技术,对暴雨灾害风险性进行评价和等级划分,并绘制出长清地区暴雨灾害综合风险区划图。结果显示:长清区暴雨灾害综合风险性分布空间性强,无明显的地域分布界限,东部高于其它地区。暴雨灾害高综合风险区分布面积较为分散且最小,占全区总面积的14.60%;中综合风险区主要分布在高综合风险区的外围,占全区总面积的30.31%;轻、低综合风险区分别占全区总面积的20.72%和34.37%。     

TGR-2050型验潮仪在珠江口潮汐测量中的应用分析

使用压力式TGR-2050型验潮仪,在珠江口等河道入海口测量潮汐时,误差比较大;针对珠江口潮汐的特点,分析和研究了大气压扰动、潮流、海水密度、压力感应零点漂移等因素对潮汐测量带来的误差,有针对性地提出解决方案,并通过实验证明了方案的可行性。     

区域碳收支能力估算的面向对象遥感分类方法

全球气候变暖问题是人类面临的最艰巨的挑战之一,通过先进的面向对象分类方法可以提高碳排放与碳汇能力的研究水平,对于控制区域气候变化具有推动作用。本文利用面向对象分类方法,以广西百色市右江区为研究区域,选取Landsat 8 OLI和Google Earth影像数据提取区域地物信息,并针对研究区地势复杂的特点,采用设置多种尺度参数的方法,选取最优尺度进行影像分割。同时,引入隶属度函数法、最邻近分类法和CART决策树分类器3种方法,基于影像光谱差异、几何形状、对象纹理等特征,逐层逐级地实施面向对象分类,随后加以针对性的精度评价分析并检验分类结果。通过总结分析前人的地物碳系数转换关系并结合高精度面向对象分类结果,构建了基于土地覆被类型的碳收支能力估算模型,并根据已有的基于CASA模型的碳收支能力估算方法加以精度校验,最终估算出右江区碳收支能力为-399.64万t。此外,本文结合右江区行政区划、人口分布、DEM等相关数据对区域碳收支能力进行了专题性剖析。结果表明,面向对象分类方法是研究小区域碳收支能力的有效途径,在区域碳循环评估中具有更好的准确性和预见性,有效促进碳收支平衡研究领域的发展。     

A fast clonal selection algorithm for feature selection in hyperspectral imagery

Clonal selection feature selection algorithm (CSFS) based on clonal selection algorithm (CSA), a new computational intelligence approach, has been proposed to perform the task of dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional images, and has better performance than traditional feature selection algorithms with more computational costs. In this paper, a fast clonal selection feature selection algorithm (FCSFS) for hyperspectral imagery is proposed to improve the convergence rate by using Cauchy mutation instead of non-uniform mutation as the primary immune operator. Two experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm in comparison with CSFS using hyperspectral remote sensing imagery acquired by the pushbroom hyperspectral imager (PHI) and the airborne visible/infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS), respectively. Experimental results demonstrate that the FCSFS converges faster than CSFS, hence providing an effective new option for dimensionality reduction of hyperspectral remote sensing imagery.     

Fengyun-4 Geostationary Satellite-Based Solar Energy Nowcasting System and Its Application in North China

Surface solar irradiance (SSI) nowcasting (0–3 h) is an effective way to overcome the intermittency of solar energy and to ensure the safe operation of grid-connected solar power plants. In this study, an SSI estimate and nowcasting system was established using the near-infrared channel of Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite. The system is composed of two key components: The first is a hybrid SSI estimation method combining a physical clear-sky model and an empirical cloudy-sky model. The second component is the SSI nowcasting model, the core of which is the derivation of the cloud motion vector (CMV) using the block-matching method. The goal of simultaneous estimation and nowcasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is fulfilled. The system was evaluated under different sky conditions using SSI measurements at Xianghe, a radiation station in the North China Plain. The results show that the accuracy of GHI estimation is higher than that of DNI estimation, with a normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of 22.4% relative to 45.4%. The nRMSE of forecasting GHI and DNI at 30–180 min ahead varied within 25.1%–30.8% and 48.1%–53.4%, respectively. The discrepancy of SSI estimation depends on cloud occurrence frequency and shows a seasonal pattern, being lower in spring–summer and higher in autumn–winter. The FY-4A has great potential in supporting SSI nowcasting, which promotes the development of photovoltaic energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in China. The system can be improved further if calibration of the empirical method is improved.     

突发性大气污染事故应急监测系统的设计与开发

本文对突发性大气污染事故应急临测系统的总体需求、体系结构、功能模块和关键技术进行了分析.通过分析突发性大气污染事故应急监测工作业务流程,提出系统的建立需在存储和管理多种应急监测相关数据的基础上,并与应急监测业务保持一致.为保证系统的高安伞性、实时性与可靠性,采用部署在局域网内的客户机/服务器体系结构.本文详细阐述了系统...     

基于空-谱先验条件随机场的高分辨率遥感影像变化检测方法

高空间分辨率遥感影像能够提供丰富的空间细节信息,使利用遥感影像进行精细变化检测成为可能.为充分挖掘高分辨率影像中的光谱、空间信息,本文提出一种基于影像空-谱先验信息的条件随机场（Conditional Random Field based on Spectral-Spatial Prior,SSPCRF）模型,该方法使用显著性检测方式自动提供先验光谱-空间样本信息,提高一元势能构建精度,有效缓解一元势能构建不准确导致的推理过程中的误差传递问题,并在二元势能中综合考虑标记场与观察影像的空间上下文信息以保持变化地物轮廓信息.最后,使用基于消息传递机制的推理方法将模型进行全局优化.在2组高分辨率影像数据集上的实验结果表明该方法能够提供较精确的初始变化检测信息,使得在减少变化检测结果中虚警点的同时保持变化地物细节信息.     

秦巴山片区中心城市人口、产业、土地城镇化耦合协调度演变研究

以秦巴山片区中心城市2004—2015年人口城镇化、产业城镇化和土地城镇化数据为基础,研究人口、产业与土地城镇化耦合协调演变特征。结果表明:秦巴山片区中心城市城镇化质量整体偏低,人口、产业和土地城镇化的耦合协调水平偏低,长期处于失调状态;多数中心城市的产业带动能力不强,土地利用效率较低,人口集聚能力有限。结合片区扶贫攻坚与区域发展规划,提出了提高城镇化耦合协调水平的路径。     

DQK－1型磁变仪倾斜仪监控器

70年代的仪器设备受当时的技术和材料的限制，存在着多种弊端。提高观测精度，改善内在质量问题势在必行。本从前兆台网的实际出发，把地球物理与电子技术相结合，把维修经验及仪器研制相结合，运用功率电子学和自动控制理论，试制成功“DQK-1型磁变仪倾斜仪监控器”，把地磁、地倾斜等前兆观测项目中的每天3次人工检查仪器改为实时监控，为确保地震前兆观测的可靠性和连续性提供了硬件保障。