A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

Structure equation model-based approach for determining lake nutrient standards in Yungui Plateau ecoregion and Eastern Plain ecoregion lakes,China

Predictive nutrient criteria method, combined with expert elicitation and structural equation model (SEM), was proposed in this study for establishing lake nutrient standard in Chinese lakes (Yungui Plateau ecoregion and Eastern Plain ecoregion). Expert elicitation was involved to quantify the probability of attainment of the designated-use (drinking water source) based on monitoring data. The experts scoring results were introduced to SEM to assess predictive relationships between candidate standard variables and the designated-use attainment. In Yungui ecoregion, the standardized effects of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus (TP) on designated-use attainment were ?0.41, ?0.14, and ?0.43, respectively. These result demonstrated that the two most predictive indicators for designated-use attainment were TP and Chl-a. In Eastern ecoregion, the standardized effects of TP, total nitrogen (TN), dissolved oxygen and water temperature (T) on designated-use attainment were 0.77, ?0.12, 0.13 and ?0.02, respectively. The most predictive indicator was TP. The model was further used for estimating the designated-use attainment associated with various levels of candidate standards. TP, TN, Chl-a and Secchi depth (SD) were selected as standard indicators in Yungui ecoregion. TP, TN, and Chl-a were selected in Eastern ecoregion. In order to achieve the 85 % designated-use attainment, standard values of TP, TN, Chl-a and SD in Yungui ecoregion would be 0.02 mg/L, 0.2 mg/L, 1.4 μg/L, and 0.581 m; and standards of TP, TN, and Chl-a in Eastern ecoregion would be 0.039 mg/L, 0.95 mg/L, and 1.75 μg/L, respectively. Finally, the differences between standards in these two ecoregions were also analyzed.