Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

Isotopic characteristics of river sediments on the Tibetan Plateau

We systematically collected 40 modern clastic sediment samples from rivers in different tectonic units of the Tibetan Plateau and measured their Sr–Nd isotopic compositions. The isotopic characteristics provide insight into the controversial paleo-tectonic affinity of terranes of the Tibetan Plateau and the provenance of Songpan–Ganzi flysch complex. The Qilian Terrane and Himalaya Terrane have more negative ε_Nd(0) values (from ? 14.3 to ? 11.8 and from ? 20.64 to ? 13.26, respectively) and high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values (from 0.719674 to 0.738818 and from 0.721020 to 0.824959, respectively), reflecting old and mature continental crust origin of these two terranes. The southern Lhasa Terrane is more radiogenic in ε_Nd(0) values (from ? 8.82 to ? 3.8) and low in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values (from 0.711504 to 0.719489), implying the combined impact of the Neo-Tethys mantle and Himalaya old continental crust. Sr–Nd isotopic compositions of the Qilian Terrane are similar to those in the Yangtze Craton, indicating that the Qilian Terrane was probably separated from the Yangtze Craton. Sr–Nd isotopic characteristics of the Songpan–Ganzi Terrane are similar to the Yangtze Craton and are remarkably different to those in the North China Craton, eastern Kunlun–Qaidam and the central Qiangtang metamorphic belt, implying that the widely distributed flysch complex of the Songpan–Ganzi Terrane was sourced from the Yangtze Craton.     

Progress in Studies of the Precipitation Diurnal Variation over Contiguous China

This paper summarizes the recent progress in studies of the diurnal variation of precipitation over con- tiguous China. The main results are as follows. （1） The rainfall diurnal variation over contiguous China presents distinct regional features. In summer, precipitation peaks in the late afternoon over the south- ern inland China and northeastern China, while it peaks around midnight over southwestern China. In the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River valley, precipitation occurs mostly in the early morning. Summer precipitation over the central eastern China （most regions of the Tibetan Plateau） has two diurnal peaks, i.e., one in the early morning （midnight） and the other in the late afternoon. （2） The rainfall diurnal variation experiences obvious seasonal and sub-seasonal evolutions. In cold seasons, the regional contrast of rainfall diurnal peaks decreases, with an early morning maximum over most of the southern China. Over the central eastern China, diurnal monsoon rainfall shows sub-seasonal variations with the movement of summer monsoon systems. The rainfall peak mainly occurs in the early morning （late afternoon） during the active （break） monsoon period. （3） Cloud properties and occurrence time of rainfall diurnal peaks are different for long- and short-duration rainfall events. Long-duration rainfall events are dominated by strat- iform precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring in the late night to early morning, while short-duration rainfall events are more related to convective precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring between the late afternoon and early night. （4） The rainfall diurnal variation is influenced by multi-scale mountain-valley and land-sea breezes as well as large-scale atmospheric circulation, and involves complicated formation and evolution of cloud and rainfall systems. The diurnal cycle of winds in the lower troposphere also contributes to the regional differences     

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1（m）

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.     

自然资源调查监测技术体系构建的方向与任务

自然资源统一调查监测技术体系（简称《技术体系》）的构建与应用,是建立健全自然资源监管体制、推动资源集约节约利用、促进人与自然和谐共生的一项重要举措,也是一项内容众多、复杂艰巨的科技工程。本文根据自然资源统一调查监测的任务与要求,从调查监测信息过程的整体性特征和工程化业务实施的系统性特征出发,分析了《技术体系》构建所面临的基本问题,提出了基于整体性的《技术体系》的总体架构;继而以协同化数据感知、自动化信息处理、精细化场景管理、智能化知识服务等为主线,论述了《技术体系》的发展方向;然后根据先进性与适用性相结合的要求,分析了《技术体系》的数智化实现路径,提出了“空天地海网”一体化协同感知网络体系构建、信息自动处理平台研发、时空场景模型构建、自然资源时空知识服务系统研发、工程化技术重构等主要研发任务。为了切实地做好该技术体系的构建与推广应用,今后还应进一步加强战略需求分析,推动关键技术创新,促进跨学科交叉研究。     

长江经济带文旅产业融合发展水平测度及 空间演化研究

加快文旅产业融合发展利于增强国家软实力和满足人民日益增长的物质文化需要。采用2002—2017年长江经济带11省市和三大城市群的73个地级及以上城市截面数据,运用双产业系统的耦合测度模型、相对发展度模型和探索性空间数据分析法,实证分析长江经济带文旅产业融合发展水平及其空间演化特征。研究发现：（1）文旅产业融合发展水平整体趋于上升,但仍属初级融合阶段。文旅产业融合发展水平从下游到中游及上游呈逐步递减趋势。（2）文旅产业融合发展水平及其增速出现空间异质性。中上游地区文旅产业融合发展水平增速较快,并与下游地区的差距有所减小。（3）文旅产业融合发展的空间集聚差异显著。下游地区属于“高-高”集聚区,成为文旅产业融合发展的重要增长极,具有明显的空间扩散效应;中游地区及核心城市属于“高-低”集聚区,正在成为文旅产业融合发展的新增长极;上游地区则需加快打破二者融合发展的 “低-低”集聚区困局。（4）三大城市群间的文旅产业融合发展不平衡。长三角城市群文旅产业的相应综合发展指数明显领先、二者融合发展的“高-高”集聚空间趋于扩大。     

Dynamics and Relationships of Ca,Mg,Fe in Litter,Soil Fauna and Soil in Pinus koraiensis-Broadleaf Mixed Forest

The Liangshui Natural Reserve in Heilongjiang Province of China was selected as the study area.The authors collected the samples of forest litter (Tilia amurensis,Fraxinus mandshurica,Pinus koraiensis,Acer mono,Betula costata,and mixed litter),soil in humus horizon (0-5cm) and soil horizon (5-20cm),and soil macrofauna (Oligochaeta,Geophiloporpha and Juliformia) from 2001 to 2002.The role of soil macrofauna in the material cycle was analyzed through comparing the macro-element contents among various parts of the subsystems and using enrichment index (EI).The results indicate that dynamic changes of various litters are very complicated.The contents of Fe in each kind of litter increase firstly,and then decrease in the study period.The changes of macro-element contents are greater in the broad-leaf litter than in the coniferous litter,and the mixed litter is in the middle level,but the differences among them are not significant.The contents of Mg and Fe in humus are higher than those in soil,but the contents of Ca in soil are higher than that in humus.The dynamic changes of macro-element contents in soil and soil fauna are not consistent with those in litter.The diplopod presented obvious enrichment of Ca and Mg (EI>1),but it does not significantly enrich Fe.Earthworm has a stronger enrichment ability of Fe than diplopod and scolopendra,but EI<1.Soil fauna can make great influences on the material cycle of the subsystems.     

Excel和AutoCAD相结合的放线模拟方法

通过实例,介绍一种不需编程就可以实现放样的模拟方法,即运用简单的"复制"、"粘贴"方法,先在Excel制成与AutoCAD命令相适应的匹配格式,然后在AutoCAD实现放样模拟。该方法有很高的推广价值。     

钻孔瞬变电磁方法探测越界开采采空区的应用

煤矿井下越界开采扰乱煤炭资源开发秩序,同时存在巨大的安全隐患,准确探测越界开采采空区及其边界对安全采掘极为重要。常规的矿井瞬变电磁探测方法容易受到巷道中的金属和电磁信号干扰,探测精度有限,难以满足采空区边界精准解释的需求。为了解决这一问题,提出一种钻孔中收发信号的钻孔瞬变电磁方法和施工工艺,利用其远离巷道和靠近异常体的特点,提高异常信号在实测数据中的占比;并研究可行域约束的OCCAM反演算法,进一步减小体积效应影响,实现了对越界开采采空区的电阻率精细成像。结合山西某煤矿的工程实践,对该方法精准探测邻矿越界开采采空区规模、性质的实用性和有效性进行了检验。结果表明,钻孔瞬变电磁方法是矿井地球物理技术与钻探工艺技术的高效结合和有益补充,基于可行域约束的OCCAM反演算法能够有效应用于越界开采采空区的边界精确成像解释。      

天津平原区加油站地下水石油烃污染特征及其生物降解机理研究

加油站地下水中石油烃污染是较为普遍的现象,本文对研究区位于不同水文地质条件的加油站地下水进行取样分析,分析加油站地下水中石油烃的污染特征和地下水化学类型特征,并运用因子分析、相关性分析和多元回归分析揭示加油站地下水中石油烃潜在的生物降解机制。研究结果表明,地下水化学类型主要可划分为Cl-Na型、HCO₃-Na型、HCO₃-Ca型和SO₄-Na型4类。加油站地下水中石油烃的检出率为85.71%,检出浓度为0.020.35 mg/L。因子分析结果表明影响地下水化学组成的因素主要以水-岩相互作用和石油烃的生物降解为主。TPH与地下水化学指标间的相关关系表明:TPH与K⁺、Na⁺、Cl^-、Mn、Mg²⁺、 {\mathrm{SO}}_4^{2-}呈现负相关的关系,与pH值、 {\mathrm{HCO}}_3^{-}、 {\mathrm{NO}}_3^{-}、 {\mathrm{NO}}_2^{-}、Ca²⁺、Fe不存在显著的相关关系。加油站地下水环境中可能存在嗜盐或耐盐微生物,导致随着盐度的升高,总石油烃(total petroleum hydrocarbon,TPH)生物降解率加快,TPH浓度呈现出降低的趋势。微生物利用电子受体( {\mathrm{SO}}_4^{2-}、Mn、 {\mathrm{NO}}_3^{-}、Fe)降解TPH的过程中,电子受体的贡献率为:铁还原(64.88%)>锰还原(24.86%)>硫酸根还原(5.78%)>硝酸盐还原(4.46%),即加油站地下水中铁锰还原菌的石油烃生物降解为优势反应。