南黄海北部DLC70-3孔沉积物磁化率特征及其对古冷水团的指示

对长71.2 m的南黄海北部DLC70-3孔沉积物粒度、磁化率和总有机碳(TOC)进行了实验分析。结果显示,DLC70-3孔沉积物的磁化率值与平均粒径呈正相关关系,与w(TOC)呈负相关关系,表明以陆源碎屑输入为主的陆架海区沉积物中的磁性矿物以粗颗粒为主;由于w(TOC)均值非常低,因此不能将磁化率低值全部归结为有机质稀释作用的结果,主要可能是沉积速率大所致。此外,磁化率值受到沉积物所处氧化还原环境的控制,氧化环境下磁化率值高,还原条件下磁化率值低。冷水团沉积层位的沉积物是在较强的还原条件下形成的,因此,磁化率指标可以指示古黄海冷水团的形成演化,将磁化率指标与同一钻孔中微体古生物指标指示的古冷水团层位进行对比,得出了完全一致的结果,从而为今后研究区的古冷水团演化研究提供了新的指标。      

用交叉点数据计算中国近海海平面变化

讨论了由测高卫星升、降弧段海面高在交叉点上的约束监测海平面变化的方法；用TOPEX／POSIDON测高数据计算了中国黄海、东海、南海海域的海平面变化，其中黄海、东海海域受两个月周期分量的振荡信号影响，而南海海域以年周期变化为主要表现特征；分析了3个海区海平面变化的相关性，扣除两个月的周期分量振荡信号后，其海平面变化的相关性达到90％以上；分析了海水面积随纬度带的变化对不同纬度分布的海区海平面变化量的影响。     

应用SPSS分析降水年际年内变化对泉水动态影响—以济南明水泉域百脉泉群为例

该文以济南明水泉域百脉泉群为例,运用SPSS软件,采用皮尔逊(pearson)相关系数法,分析了大气降水年际变化、年内变化对泉水流量及水位的影响。分析表明:前一年降水及前二年降水量与泉水流量呈强相关关系,当年降水对泉水流量影响相对较小,呈中等相关关系;当年降水与前一年降水与泉水水位为强相关关系,前二年降水影响略小,为中等相关关系;泉水月流量与前2、3个月降水有较强的相关性,泉水水位则与前2个月大气降水具有中等相关性。丰水年及平水年泉流量、水位高峰值在时间上较降水的高峰值推迟1~3个月,泉水水位最大日升幅一般滞后某一次大的降水过程之后1~2天。     

2012年成都市PM10污染与地面气象条件的相关性分析

为了解2012年成都市PM10浓度分布情况及其与地面气象条件的相关性,通过分析2012年PM10浓度的分布情况,选取了13次污染过程,并对这些过程中的地面气象要素情况进行分析。结果表明,PM10浓度呈波状分布,其中3月和11月分别达到峰值,7月为全年最低;过程期间各变量具有以下特征:PM10浓度与温度呈正相关,与气压呈负相关,当有降温升压时PM10浓度减小;24小时变压变温都较小,表明天气较稳定;地面风速小,普遍小于2m/s,且主要为弱偏西偏北风,而当风速增大时有利于PM10的扩散;低能见度与较大的相对湿度对应较好,二者有明显的负相关。     

江门市年最大风速变化特征分析

为了更好的了解江门市年最大风速的变化特征,利用欧洲中尺度天气预测中心(ECWMF)提供的1979-2012年每天8个时次地面(10m高度)阵风后处理资料,通过Mann-Kendall突变检验和经验正交函数(EOF)分解等方法,统计分析了江门市年最大风速的变化趋势及时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)该地区年最大风速一般介于20-30m/s,呈线性上升趋势,并在2003年左右发生了突变。(2)江门市年最大风速出现的季节主要是在夏季和秋季。(3)江门市年最大风速的时空变化存在两种主模态,他们分别可以解释总方差的76.0%和9.0%。第1模态在空间上表现为全区一致性,从21世纪初至今呈现显著的2~4年的变化周期;第2模态在空间上呈现出东北-西南反向型,同样在21世纪初期存在明显的2年和4年年际变化信号。     

安徽钻孔体应变与降雨、地下水位关系的研究

利用合肥台、黄山台钻孔体应变2013～2015年观测资料日均值与降雨引起的地下水位变化进行相关分析,同时考虑体应变变化的滞后性,使用Matlab计算水位和体应变不同滞后时间的相关系数,确定滞后天数;扣除滞后天数,再进行回归拟合分析,消除水位干扰。鉴于水位对体应变干扰的复杂性,在运用长周期数据时,以月为窗长进行回归分析,能较好地消除水位对体应变的干扰,利于体应变的趋势性判断。     

西太平洋西北海域海温与西副高和极涡的联系

本文通过西太平洋西北部海表温度与北半球500hpa西副高和极涡环流指数的典型相关分析,得到了一些有意义的环流超前与滞后的相关事实,证实了环流有3—6个月的滞后相关的存在。     

基于GIS的东黄海渔场影响因子分析

利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术、结合近年对东黄海海洋渔业资源与环境的调查资料,对东黄海渔场的渔业资源变化的主要影响因子进行空间分析与叠加,得到该渔场的资源分布与水温、初级生产力、饵料、底质等因子的时空分布专题图,经过相关分析,即可掌握当前该渔场资源的概况。     

基于国家1:50000地形数据库的公路交通网络空间分布特征和趋势变化研究

为了获得全国公路交通网络空间分布特征和趋势变化,以国家1:50000地形数据库的公路交通数据(2012~2015年4个时间序列)为研究对象,利用空间自相关的统计方法对其展开分析研究。实验结果表明全国公路交通网络的空间分布具有显著的空间自相关性和聚类特征,同时其分布与区域经济指标存在空间显著正相关。     

成都城市区域小气候时空变化特征分析

利用成都市12个自动站的气象资料,分析了成都市区域小气候及其变化特征.研究表明,成都城市热岛现象并非出现在城市中心区,而是北部和东部工业区,其平均气温相对较高,降水量偏多;南部文化区平均气温最低,风速最大;西部旅游居家区气温年变化最小,且有冬暖夏凉的特征,降水量偏少;城市中心区风速最小.     

Interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet

Feature s of the interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet in the tropical Indian Ocean are revealed using observation data and model output.The results show that the jet has significant interannual variation,which has a significant correlation with winter El Nino Modoki index(R=0.62).During spring after an El Nino(La Nina) Modoki event,the Wyrtki Jet has a positive(negative) anomaly,forced by a westerly(easterly) wind anomaly.The result of a linear-continuously stratified model shows that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet(-70%) and the third to fifth modes together account for approximately 30%.Surface wind anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean are related to the Walker circulation anomaly associated with El Nino/La Nina Modoki.The interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet has an evident impact on sea surface salinity transport before the onset phase of the summer monsoon in the Indian Ocean.     

Interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean

We analyzed interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean, using NCEP wind field and OAFlux heat flux datasets. Results indicate that South China Sea monsoon intensity had an obvious interdecadal variation with a decreasing trend. Variability of the monsoon was significantly correlated with latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area and tropical Pacific Ocean. Variability of latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area had an interdecadal increasing trend, while that in the tropical Pacific Ocean had an interdecadal decreasing trend. Latent heat flux variability in these two sea areas was used to establish a latent heat flux index, which had positive correlation with variability of the South China Sea monsoon. When the latent heat flux was 18 months ahead of the South China Sea monsoon, the correlation coefficient maximized at 0.58 (N=612), with a 99.9% significance level of 0.15. Thus, it is suggested that latent heat flux variability in the two areas contributes greatly to interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon.     

Sea Salt Sodium Record in a Shallow Ice Core from East Antarctica as a Potential Proxy of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in Southern Indian Ocean

Antarctic sea ice has experienced an increasing trend in recent decades, especially in the Ross Sea and Indian Ocean sectors. Sea ice variability affects greatly the maritime airmass transport from high latitude to Antarctic continent. Here we present a new ice core record of sea salt sodium(ssNa+) concentration at annual-resolution in the Princess Elizabeth Land spanning from 1990 to 2016, showing that this marker could be used as a potential proxy for reconstructing the sea ice extent(SIE) in the Southern Indian Ocean(SIO) given their significant correlation(R =-0.6, P 0.01) over the past 27 years. The correlation and composite analyses results show that the ssNa~+ at the 202 km inland from Zhongshan Station and the SIE changes in SIO are closely related to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and Southern Annular Mode(SAM). The northward wind in central SIO occurs during positive IOD and the strengthened westerlies occurs during positive SAM, both of which favor increased sea ice in SIO and lead to the decreased ssNa~+ concentration at the coastal site.     

A time-dependent baroclinic model on NEC bifurcation

As it is well-known, the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcates into the Kuroshio flowing northward and the equatorward Mindanao Current, which is well depicted by Munk’s theory in 1950 in terms of its climatology. However, Munk’s theory is unable to tell the NEC bifurcation variability with time. In the present paper, a time-dependent baroclinic model forced by wind, in which temporal and baroclinic terms are added to Munk’s equation, is proposed to examine the seasonal variability of the NEC bifurcation latitude. An analytical solution is obtained, with which the seasonal variability can be well described: NEC bifurcation reaches its northernmost position in December and its southernmost position in June with a range of about 1° in latitude, consistent with previous results with observations. The present solution will degenerate to Munk’s one in the case of steady and barotropic state.     

不同防风标准雨量计的观测差异

针对不同的防风标准在翻斗雨量计观测时对风场变形误差的防护作用,从降水总量随风速波动的变化、设备间的均方差及其相关系数和观测时间灵敏度等几个方面对观测数据进行分析。数据分析表明不同的防风标准翻斗式雨量计对风场变形误差的防护作用存在一定的差异,其中SMALLDIFR具有更高的时间灵敏性,在雨量比较大时,偏斜式雨量计更优。     

Numerical simulation of the structure and variation of upwelling off the east coast of Hainan Island using QuikSCAT winds

The spatial structure and variation of the upwelling in the waters east and northeast of Hainan Island, China during 2000-2007 were investigated using a nested high-resolution Princeton Ocean Model (POM) forced by QuikSCAT winds. The model produced good simulations of the summer upwelling and the seasonal and annual variability. Strong upwelling occurs from mid-July to mid-August with a peak east of Hainan Island associated with the southwesterly monsoon in the South China Sea. Sensitivity experiments indicated that when the local wind stress controls the variability of the upwelling, the large-scale circulation significantly enhances the upwelling northeast of Hainan Island by inducing a local upwelling and transporting cold water northeast-ward along the island’s east coast. The joint effects of the local wind stress and large-scale circulation result in stronger upwelling northeast of Hainan Island. This implies that the annual variation of the upwelling northeast of Hainan Island is controlled not only by the local alongshore wind stress but also by the large-scale circulation. This result will help us investigate the decadal variation of the upwelling in this region in the future.     

Influence of the Eastern Indian Ocean Warm Pool Variability on the Spring Precipitation in China

The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool （EIWP） and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） Sea Surface Temperature （SST） data, the reanalysis data of monthly grid wind field at 925 hPa with a resolution of 2.5^＊ latitude and longitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR）, and the monthly mean rainfall data from 160 observational stations in China. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China. The area, volume and intensity indices of the EIWP are negatively correlated with the spring precipitation in southwestern China, while they are positively correlated with the spring precipitation in the rest of China, especially in the northeast. For this correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China, it is found that the correlative relationship is mainly connected with the variations of the moisture transport by the warm air flow, which is under the influence of the EIWP variability, into the inland of China in spring. Two causative factors may influence this transport. One is the variation of the moisture transport carried by the warm air flow from the Arabian Sea influenced by the EIWP variability. The other is the variation of the equator-crossing flow （70^＊-90^＊E） influenced by the EIWP anomaly in the previous winter which exerts its effect on the moist warm air transported from the Southern Hemisphere. The position and intensity of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High （WNPSH） variability caused by EIWP variation also influence the spring precipitation in China.     

Projections of wind changes for 21st century in China by three regional climate models

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.     

基于波形互相关的爆破震相识别研究

利用内蒙古测震台网地震事件资料,选取爆破事件中SNR较高的8个爆破事件波形作为模板,使用基于波形互相关系数的模板匹配方法进行震相识别。研究结果表明,在震级相近的情况下,相同类型地震事件各自对应的波形之间互相关系数较大,可作为地震类型判别的依据。     

Annual and interannual variability of scatterometer ocean surface wind over the South China Sea

To investigate the annual and interannual variability of ocean surface wind over the South China Sea (SCS), the vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method were employed to analyze a set of combined satellite scatterometer wind data during the period from December 1992 to October 2009. The merged wind data were generated from European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS)-1/2 Scatterometer, NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and NASA’s Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The first VEOF mode corresponds to a winter-summer mode which accounts for 87.3% of the total variance and represents the East Asian monsoon features. The second mode of VEOF corresponds to a spring-autumn oscillation which accounts for 8.3% of the total variance. To analyze the interannual variability, the annual signal was removed from the wind data set and the VEOFs of the residuals were calculated. The temporal mode of the first interannual VEOF is correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with a four-month lag. The second temporal interannual VEOF mode is correlated with the SOI with no time lag. The time series of the two interannual VEOFs were decomposed using the HHT method and the results also show a correlation between the interannual variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.