Attribution analysis for water yield service based on the geographical detector method: A case study of the Hengduan Mountain region

Ecosystem services, which include water yield services, have been incorporated into decision processes of regional land use planning and sustainable development. Spatial pattern characteristics and identification of factors that influence water yield are the basis for decision making. However, there are limited studies on the driving mechanisms that affect the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services. In this study, we used the Hengduan Mountain region in southwest China, with obvious spatial heterogeneity, as the research site. The water yield module in the In VEST software was used to simulate the spatial distribution of water yield. Also, quantitative attribution analysis was conducted for various geomorphological and climatic zones in the Hengduan Mountain region by using the geographical detector method. Influencing factors, such as climate, topography, soil, vegetation type, and land use type and pattern, were taken into consideration for this analysis. Four key findings were obtained. First, water yield spatial heterogeneity is influenced most by climate-related factors, where precipitation and evapotranspiration are the dominant factors. Second, the relative importance of each impact factor to the water yield heterogeneity differs significantly by geomorphological and climatic zones. In flat areas, the influence of evapotranspiration is higher than that of precipitation. As relief increases, the importance of precipitation increases and eventually, it becomes the most influential factor. Evapotranspiration is the most influential factor in a plateau climate zone, while in the mid-subtropical zone, precipitation is the main controlling factor. Third, land use type is also an important driving force in flat areas. Thus, more attention should be paid to urbanization and land use planning, which involves land use changes, to mitigate the impact on water yield spatial pattern. The fourth finding was that a risk detector showed that Primarosol and Anthropogenic soil areas, shrub areas, and areas with slope 5° and 25°–35° should be recognized as water yield important zones, while the corresponding elevation values are different among different geomorphological and climatic zones. Therefore, the spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors in different zones should be fully con-sidered while planning the maintenance and protection of water yield services in the Hengduan Mountain region.     

中国城镇化进程中用水效率影响因素的空间计量分析（英文）

Due to the limitation of total amount of water resources, it is necessary to enhance water consumption efficiency to meet the increasing water demand of urbanizing China. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China in 1997–2013, we analyze the influencing factors of water consumption efficiency by spatial econometric models. Results show that, 1) Due to the notable spatial autocorrelation characteristics of water consumption efficiency among different provinces in China, general panel data regression model which previous studies often used may be improper to reveal its influencing factors. However, spatial Durbin model may best estimate their relationship. 2) Water consumption efficiency of a certain province may be influenced not only by its socio-economic and eco-environmental indicators, but also by water consumption efficiency in its neighboring provinces. Moreover, it may be influenced by the neighboring provinces' socio-economic and eco-environmental indicators. 3) For the macro average case of the 31 provinces in China, if water consumption efficiency in neighboring provinces increased 1%, water consumption efficiency of the local province would increase 0.34%. 4) Among the ten specific indicators we selected, per capita GDP and urbanization level of itself and its neighboring provinces have the most prominent positive effects on water consumption efficiency, and the indirect effects of neighboring provinces are much larger. Therefore, the spatial spillover effects of the economic development level and urbanization level are the primary influencing factors for improving China's water consumption efficiency. 5) Policy implications indicate that, to improve water consumption efficiency, each province should properly consider potential influences caused by its neighboring provinces, especially needs to enhance the economic cooperation and urbanization interaction with neighboring provinces.     

中国水资源利用效率与空间溢出效应测度(英文)

Based on provincial panel data of water footprint and grey water footprint, and with the help of data envelopment analysis model considering and without considering the undesirable output, this paper estimates the water resources utilization efficiency in China from 1997 to 2011. The spatial weighting matrix based on economy-spatial distance function is established to discuss spatial autocorrelation of water resources utilization efficiency. With the help of absolute β-convergence model, this paper concludes that there exists β-convergence in the water resources utilization efficiency. Under the conditions of considering and without considering the undesirable output, it takes about 52.6 and 5.6 years respectively to achieve the extent of half of convergence. By mean of the spatial Durbin econometric model, this paper studies spatial spillover effects of the provincial water resources utilization efficiency in China. The results are as follows. 1) With considering and without considering the undesirable output, there is significant spatial correlation in provincial water resource efficiency in China. 2) Under the two cases, the spatial autoregressive coefficients(ρ) are 0.278 and 0.507 respectively, at 1% significance level. There exist the spatial spillover effects of provincial water resources utilization efficiency. 3) With considering the undesirable output, these factors of the education funds, the transportation infrastructure, and the industrial and agricultural water consumption proportion have positive impacts. These factors of foreign direct investment, the industry value-added water consumption per ten thousand yuan, per capita water consumption, and the total precipitation have negative impacts. 4) Without considering the undesirable output, the factor of GDP per laborer has a greater positive significant influence on the water resources utilization efficiency. However the facts of industry value-added water consumption in ten thousand yuan and the transportation infrastructure have no significant influence. 5) Regardless of undesirable output of water resources utilization efficiency, the assessment of the present real water resources utilization in China will be distorted and policy-making will be misled. The water efficiency measure considering environmental factors(such as gray water footprint) is more reasonable.     

Measurement for coordinated development of "four modernizations" and its efficiency of prefecture level cities or above in China

The efficient and coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization(so called "Sihua Tongbu" in China, and hereinafter referred to as "four modernizations") is not only a practical need but also an important strategic direction of integrating urban-rural development and regional development in recent China. This paper evaluated the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices of "four modernizations" of China's 343 prefecture-level administrative units, and calculated their efficiency of "four modernizations" in 2001 and 2011. The efficiency evaluation index system was established. The efficiencies and their changing trend during the period 2001–2011 were investigated using the data envelopment analysis(DEA) model. Spatial-temporal pattern of the efficiency of China's prefecture-level units was explored by using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA). Finally, the main influencing factors were revealed with the aid of geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. Results indicate that the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices and efficiency of "four modernizations" of China's prefecture-level administrative units have obvious spatial differences and show diverse regional patterns. Overall, the efficiency is relatively low, and only few units with small urban populations and economic scale are in DEA efficiencies. The efficiency changing trends were decreasing during 2001–2011, with a transfer of high efficiency areas from inland to eastern coastal areas. The difference between urban and rural per capita investment in fixed assets boasts the greatest influence on the efficiency.     

Water resource utilization efficiency and spatial spillover effects in China

Based on provincial panel data of water footprint and grey water footprint, and with the help of data envelopment analysis model considering and without considering the unde- sirable output, this paper estimates the water resources utilization efficiency in China from 1997 to 2011. The spatial weighting matrix based on economy-spatial distance function is established to discuss spatial autocorrelation of water resources utilization efficiency. With the help of absolute/3-convergence model, this paper concludes that there exists/%convergence in the water resources utilization efficiency. Under the conditions of considering and without considering the undesirable output, it takes about 52.6 and 5.6 years respectively to achieve the extent of half of convergence. By mean of the spatial Durbin econometric model, this paper studies spatial spillover effects of the provincial water resources utilization efficiency in China. The results are as follows. 1） With considering and without considering the undesir- able output, there is significant spatial correlation in provincial water resource efficiency in China. 2） Under the two cases, the spatial autoregressive coefficients （p） are 0.278 and 0.507 respectively, at 1% significance level. There exist the spatial spillover effects of provin- cial water resources utilization efficiency. 3） With considering the undesirable output, these factors of the education funds, the transportation infrastructure, and the industrial and agri- cultural water consumption proportion have positive impacts. These factors of foreign direct investment, the industry value-added water consumption per ten thousand yuan, per capita water consumption, and the total precipitation have negative impacts. 4） Without considering the undesirable output, the factor of GDP per laborer has a greater positive significant influ- ence on the water resources utilization efficiency. However the facts of industry value-added water consumption in ten thousand yuan and the transportation infrastructure have no sig- nificant influence. 5） Regardless of undesirable output of water resources utilization efficiency the assessment of the present real water resources utilization in China will be distorted and policy-making will be misled. The water efficiency measure considering environmental factors （such as gray water footprint） is more reasonable.     

中国科技资源配置效率测度及其时空格局演变特征(英文)

According to the connotation and structure of science and technology resources and some relevant data of more than 286 cities at prefecture level and above during 2001–2010, using modified method—Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA), science and technology(ST) resource allocation efficiency of different cities in different periods has been figured out, which, uncovers the distributional difference and change law of ST resource allocation efficiency from the time-space dimension. Based on that, this paper has analyzed and discussed the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of ST resource allocation efficiency in different cities by virtue of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA). It turned out that:(1) the average of ST resource allocation efficiency in cities at prefecture level and above has always stayed at low levels, moreover, with repeated fluctuations between high and low, which shows a decreasing trend year by year. Besides, the gap between the East and the West is widening.(2) The asymmetrical distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency presents a spatial pattern of successively decreasing from Eastern China, Central China to Western China. The cities whose ST resource allocation efficiency are at higher level and high level take on a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China.(3) The coupling degree between ST resource allocation efficiency and economic environment assumes a certain positive correlation, but not completely the same. The differentiation of ST resource allocation efficiency is common in regional development, whose existence and evolution are directly or indirectly influenced by and regarded as the reflection of many elements, such as geographical location, the natural endowment and environment of ST resources and so on.(4) In the perspective of the evolution of spatial structure, ST resource allocation efficiency of the cities at prefecture level and above shows a notable spatial autocorrelation, which in every period presents a positive correlation. The spatial distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency in neighboring cities seems to be similar in group, which tends to escalate stepwise. Meanwhile, the whole differentiation of geographical space has a diminishing tendency.(5) Viewed from LISA agglomeration map ofST resource allocation efficiency in different periods, four agglomeration types have changed differently in spatial location and the range of spatial agglomeration. And the continuity of ST resource allocation efficiency in geographical space is gradually increasing.     

Designing a spatial pattern to rebalance the orientation of development and protection in Wuhan

Patterns of spatial development and protection form a basic category of geoscience,and redesigning them is a popular subject of research in regional sustainable development that is important for ecological civilization construction.The authors here report a case study of Wuhan city using the circuit theory model and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model to rebalance its spatial protection and development.The results show the following:(1)Using the density of the gross domestic product(GDP),density of population,rate of urbanization,and access to transportation as evaluation indicators,seven core areas of development in Wuhan were identified,accounting for 59%of the total number of streets,that exhibited a “circular-satellite”spatial structure.(2)According to the importance of ecosystem services,ecological sensitivity,land use type,and slope of the terrain,the resistance surface of spatial development in Wuhan had a stereoscopic spatial form of an“inverted pyramid,”with high surroundings and a low center.The area of low resistance accounted for 6.64%of the total area of Wuhan.(3)Based on coupling analysis using the MCR and spatial morphological characteristics of current,nine axes of spatial development with a total area of 427.27 km2 and eight key strategic points with a total area of 40.02 km2 were identified.Streets that were prioritized for development accounted for 9.63%of Wuhan's total area.(4)By combining the characterization of the development axis with the structure of the three-level core area,we extracted the structure of spatial development of "one heart,two wings,and three belts" in Wuhan.The research framework and empirical results can provide scientific guidance for the urban spatial layout,the development of regional linkages,and ecological environmental protection in China.     

Coordinated development efficiency between cultivated land spatial morphology and agricultural economy in underdeveloped areas in China: Evidence from western Hubei province

Suitable spatial morphology of cultivated land is a basic requirement for sustaining agricultural economic development in mountainous areas. Coordinated development efficiency of cultivated land spatial morphology and agricultural economy(CECA) is of great practical significance to measure the efficiency of cultivated land use, and thereby promote regional rural revitalization. However, few studies to date have focused on coordinated development efficiency between cultivated land use and agricul...     

中国边境地区城镇化时空格局及其驱动力

Border area is not only an important gateway for inland opening-up,but also an important part of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and optimizing national urban spatial pattern in China.Due to the location,natural resources endowment,and traffic accessibility,the urbanization speed is relatively slow in border areas.Therefore,it is a special area that needs to pay close attention to,especially under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative and China's regional coordinated development program.Based on the county-level data from 2000 to 2015,this paper tries to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of urbanization in 134 border counties,and applies geographical detector method to study the driving forces of urbanization in border areas.Conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2015,urbanization rate in border areas has been lower than the national average,and the gap has been widening.Some border counties in southern Xinjiang,Tibet,northeast of Inner Mongolia,and Yunnan,are even facing the problem of population loss.(2)In the same period,urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border is low,while their urbanization rate grows relatively faster comparing with other border counties;urbanization rate in Tibet border is the lowest and grows relatively slowly;urbanization rate in the northeastern and northern border is slightly higher,but it grows slowly or even stagnates.(3)Transportation and industry are the important driving forces of urbanization in border areas,while the driving forces of market is relatively weak.And there are obvious mutual reinforcements among the driving forces,while the effort and explanatory power of resource force increases obviously after interaction.(4)Urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border areas grows relatively fast,with industrial force and transportation force,market force and administrative force as the main driving forces respectively.Tibet border area has the lowest urbanization rate and growth rate,as the driving force of urbanization with strong contribution has not yet formed in Tibet.In the northeastern and northern border areas,the contribution of transportation force to urbanization is greater than other forces,and its interaction with market and industry has obvious effects.     

珠江三角洲地区城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调研究

Urban resilience is an emerging research topic of urban studies, and its essence is described by the ability of cities to resist, recover, and adapt to uncertain disturbances. This paper constructs a "Size-Density-Morphology" urban ecological resilience evaluation system, uses a coupling coordination degree model to measure the degree of coupling coordination between urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2015, and conducts an in-depth discussion on its spatiotemporal characteristics. The results show the following.(1) From 2000 to 2015, the urbanization level of cities in the study area generally increased while the level of ecological resilience declined. The coupling coordination degree between the two systems decreased from basic coordination to basic imbalance.(2) In terms of spatial distribution, the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and ecological resilience of cities presented a circular pattern that centered on the cities at the estuary of the Pearl River and increased toward the periphery.(3) Ecological resilience sub-systems played variable roles in the coupling coordination between urbanization and ecological resilience. Specifically, size resilience mainly played a reverse blocking role;the influence of morphology resilience was generally positive and continued to increase over time;the effect of density resilience was positive and continued to decline and further became negative after falling below zero. The main pathways for achieving coordinated and sustainable development of future urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta include: leading the coordinated development of regions with new urbanization, improving ecological resilience by strictly observing the three areas and three lines, adapting to ecological carrying capacity, and rationally arranging urban green spaces.     

塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析

通过Global Moran's I 指数和Getis-Ord Gi*指数并构建协调发展度模型对塔里木河流域绿洲城镇1995、2000、2005 和2008 年4 个时间点的城镇化水平、土地资源效益和水资源效益的集聚扩散状态及其冷热点空间格局演化与空间联动效应进行分析,得出结论：受塔河流域绿洲分布、气候条件及城镇发展基础等多种因素影响,城镇化和水土资源效益空间格局表现出不尽相同的状态。① 塔河流域城镇化与水土资源效益的集聚扩散状态不一致,城镇发展与自然条件相互作用的时间和力度不同决定了三者空间差异的必然性。② 受城镇化所处阶段、城镇职能与主导产业的影响,各县市水土资源开发的时序不同,城镇化和水土资源效益各自的热点演化格局明显不同,区域联动效应差异显著。③ 城镇化与水土资源效益冷热点区域的数量结构迥异。城镇不平衡发展仍然是主导趋势,土地资源效益滞后于城镇发展,水资源效益敏感性较强。④ 塔河流域范围广,自然条件复杂,各二级流域城镇化与水土资源效益的差异性显著。⑤ 城镇化与水土资源效益协调发展度的类型主要为发展水平低和较低两种,协调发展度的空间格局相比其冷热点区域的空间格局更具稳定性,三者差异显著是协调发展度低的重要原因。     

天山北坡城镇化进程中的水土资源效益及其时空分异

通过空间分析的Global Moran''s I指数和Getis-Ord G_i^*指数以及协调发展度函数选取1995年、2000年、2005年和2008年4个年份数据对天山北坡城镇化进程中的土地资源效益、水资源效益的集聚扩散状态及其冷热点空间格局演化与空间联动发展效应进行分析,研究发现:(1)天山北坡在绿洲自然地理格局下发育起来的城镇,受自然地理条件和水土资源分布特点及城镇发展水平不一、城镇性质各异而对水土资源利用程度不一等因素影响,其城镇化水平和水土资源效益的空间格局表现出不同的发展状态。(2)土地资源效益相似的县市具有明显的空间差异,呈现出分散的格局并保持相对稳定的态势。(3)水资源效益的空间集聚和扩散状态不稳定,变化显著。(4)水土资源效益在城镇化进程中各自的空间演化格局与路径迥异,区域联动效应差异显著。绿洲城镇发展的实际决定了水土资源效益的冷热点区域演化相比自身发展水平更具敏感性。     

长江流域人口-土地-经济城镇化的时空 耦合协调性与驱动因子分析

运用熵值法对长江流域2008年、2013年及2018年3个时期105个地级市的人口、土地、经济城镇化水平进行多维评测;依托ArcGIS平台分析城镇化的时空演变特征及耦合协调性的时空集聚模式;采用多元线性回归模型,挖掘城镇化耦合协调性的驱动因子。结果表明：长江上中下游地区城镇化耦合协调度显著差异,呈现出：下游地区＞＞中游地区＞上游地区的格局。城镇化耦合协调度中等协调及以上水平的地级市主要位于长江三角洲、合肥与皖江沿线、武汉城市圈、长沙城市圈、成渝城市群、南昌、贵阳、昆明等地。耦合协调度处于失调水平的地级市主要位于长江源头地区、藏东—川西—滇北横断山区、甘肃陇南、乌蒙山区、武陵山区、南岭地区等地。城镇化耦合协调度的空间集聚模式可划分为热点聚集型、中部发展型、冷点聚集型、边缘游离型4种类型。在此基础上,构建出4种空间集聚类型的拟合模型,决定系数R²均大于0.800。立足于新型城镇化建设,对长江流域人口、土地、经济城镇化的发展提出了针对性的政策建议。     

汾河流域城市化与水资源耦合协调关系研究

通过构建汾河流域城市化与水资源系统指标体系,利用综合评价法对2010—2019年汾河流域城市化和水资源综合水平的变化趋势进行分析,在此基础上构建耦合协调度模型,分析汾河流域城市化与水资源的耦合协调关系。结果表明：汾河流域城市化综合指数整体呈上升趋势,城市化子系统重要程度表现为经济城市化>社会城市化>空间城市化>人口城市化;水资源综合指数呈波动上升趋势,水资源子系统重要程度呈现出水资源利用>水资源水平>水资源保护,水资源环境不断优化,2013年出现短期下降,主要受水资源量和用水量等要素的影响;从时间上看,2010—2019年汾河流域城市化与水资源耦合协调度不断提高,经历了从2010年低水平轻度失调到2019年高水平协调发展过程;空间上,2010—2019年汾河流域六市城市化与水资源耦合协调度不断提升,吕梁、太原、忻州达到良好协调水平,临汾、运城处于勉强协调水平,而晋中则处于磨合阶段的濒临失调水平。     

黄河流域景观破碎化对土壤保持服务影响研究

基于2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年土地利用现状遥感监测数据,分别采用景观格局指数和当量因子法测度了黄河流域多尺度景观破碎化和土壤保持服务的时空特征,并且综合运用热点分析工具、普通最小二乘法和空间回归分析模型,探索了2000—2015年黄河流域多尺度土壤保持服务时空演变特征及景观破碎化对土壤保持服务的影响机制。结果如下：① 黄河流域土壤保持服务低值区主要集中分布在黄河流域上游青海-甘肃-宁夏-陕西-内蒙古沿线地区以及流域下游河南和山东,另外省会城市以及周边地区同样是土壤保持服务低值区,土壤保持服务具有显著的尺度依赖性;② 研究期间黄河流域土壤保持服务变化的热点区域主要分布在流域上游黄土高原地区,冷点区域主要分布在黄土高原的周边地区,不同尺度下土壤保持服务变化冷热点差异显著;③ 回归结果显示,经济社会因子与土壤保持服务具有显著的负相关;自然本底因子中海拔和林地面积比重与土壤保持服务具有显著的正相关;景观破碎化指数对土壤保持服务的影响差异性显著。未来黄河流域不同分区土壤保持和土地利用政策的制定不仅需要考虑自然本底和经济社会驱动因子,还应考虑多尺度景观格局破碎化以及空间溢出效应,跨区域协同治理对于黄河流域土地利用政策制定和生态系统保护具有重要现实意义。     

长三角地区城镇化协调发展的空间特征及形成机理

基于长三角一体化和区域协调发展的国家战略,在测度2001—2016年长三角地区41个城市的城镇化协调水平后,运用泰尔指数、重心轨迹、热点分析和空间计量模型等方法,分析长三角地区城镇化协调发展的空间特征及形成机理。结果表明：① 长三角地区城镇化协调水平总体差异呈波动下降趋势,省内差异不断缩小但省域间的差异在不断扩大;长三角地区城镇化协调水平整体呈东高西低的分布态势,西北—东南方向的城镇化协调发展动态演化格局变化不大,历年重心较为稳定,但空间关联范围和离散程度呈扩大趋势。② 从空间的集聚特征来看,长三角地区城镇化协调水平有显著正向空间自相关性,热点区渐向经济比较发达的上海、苏南、浙北等地区集聚,冷点区稳定分布在皖北、皖南和浙南。③ 影响城镇化协调发展空间特征的各因素均显著为正,经济发展水平仍然主导着区域城镇化协调发展,人口集聚效应对邻近城市城镇化协调水平提升更加明显,充分发挥城镇化高协调区对低协调区的带动作用,实现长三角地区均衡发展。     

黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率的时空演变及影响因素

采用超效率DEA模型、GIS空间分析方法、动态面板的系统GMM估计方法对2010—2017年黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率时空格局及影响因素进行分析，结果表明：① 黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率整体由2010年的0.70波动下降为2017年的0.67，且区域内70%以上的城市水资源利用效率变动趋势与其一致；② 黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率呈“U”型区域两侧相对较高，中间区域相对较低的空间分布态势，且空间分布重心始终位于地理重心的北方；③ 环境规制、经济发展水平、产业结构优化、技术水平对水资源利用效率呈显著正向影响，农田水利设施建设、城镇化对水资源利用效率呈显著负向影响。研究结论可为黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的推进提供决策支持。     

中国医疗资源配置与服务利用协调发展的时空演化——基于机构分层分析框架

基于机构分层分析框架,运用统计与空间分析方法,剖析中国省域基层医疗卫生机构和医院医疗资源配置与服务利用协调发展的时空演化特征及其驱动因子。研究发现:2010—2018年2类机构的耦合协调类型由濒临失调衰退型变为勉强协调发展型;总体呈东部经济发达地区水平较高,中部地区居中,西北、东北、西南等经济欠发达沿边地区较低的空间分布格局和以长江中下游地区和青藏高原地区为核心的热、冷点区的空间聚集特征,同时在空间格局改善程度、局部空间集聚效应强度和冷热点区变化范围等方面存在差异;受人口分布与结构、经济发展水平和地理空间等因子驱动,同时存在明显时空异质性特征。     

中部崛起背景下安徽省城镇化效率时空分异特征

基于中部崛起的战略背景,以安徽省为例,综合利用DEA模型、Malmquist指数、GIS趋势面分析及空间统计模型等方法对2000—2014年安徽省城镇化效率进行综合评价及时空分异研究。结果表明:(1)2000年后安徽省城镇化效率总体上呈现不断提升的态势,技术进步变化是推进城镇化效率增长的主动力,3个时间断面均呈现出效率东西方向递增、南北方向倒"U"型分布形态。(2)城镇化效率在全局空间均表现出较显著的集聚分布,即城镇化效率高(低)的地域空间相毗邻;城镇化效率局部热点区形成"合肥—芜湖"核心区,且不断向周边马鞍山、滁州等地演化,而城镇化效率冷点区主要集聚在皖北地区,形成"哑铃型"分布格局。(3)地理区位、产业结构及区域政策是影响2000年后安徽省城镇化效率时空分异的主要因素。     

中国地级以上城市土地经济密度差异的时空演化分析

以中国336个地级以上城市为研究对象,利用核密度估计和探索性空间数据分析方法,对2001~2014年中国地级以上城市土地经济密度差异的时空格局演化及影响因素进行分析和探讨。结果表明：① 中国地级以上城市土地经济密度的总体水平不断提高,平均值从2001年的4.769亿元/km²增加至2014年的15.375亿元/km²,但地区差距逐渐扩大;② 中国地级以上城市土地经济密度表现出显著的全局空间正相关性,相邻地市相互影响,呈现出“高–高”或“低–低”的空间集聚态势,且从LISA集聚图来看,城市土地经济密度通过空间聚类可以划分为“高水平均质型地域”、“塌陷型地域”、“极化型地域”和“低水平均质型地域”4种类型,不同地域类型的空间分布范围和稳定性等都存在差异;③ 中国地级以上城市土地经济密度冷、热点区域的空间分布具有相对稳定性,总体上表现出“东热西冷”的分布格局,热点区主要分布在东部的京津冀地区、长江三角洲地区和珠江三角洲地区等,广大中、西部地区则大多处于低值簇,属于城市土地经济密度的冷点区或次冷点区;④ 自然条件状况决定城市土地的供给能力和开发潜力,是导致中国地级以上城市土地经济密度差异的基础性因素,区域经济发展水平、经济发展政策、土地利用管理政策也会对城市土地经济密度差异造成一定程度的影响。