塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析

通过Global Moran'sⅠ指数和Getis-Ord Gi*指数并构建协调发展度模型对塔里木河流域绿洲城镇1995、2000、2005和2008年4个时间点的城镇化水平、土地资源效益和水资源效益的集聚扩散状态及其冷热点空间格局演化与空间联动效应进行分析,得出结论:受塔河流域绿洲分布、气候条件及城镇发展基础等多种因素影响,城镇化和水土资源效益空间格局表现出不尽相同的状态.①塔河流域城镇化与水土资源效益的集聚扩散状态不一致,城镇发展与自然条件相互作用的时间和力度不同决定了三者空间差异的必然性.②受城镇化所处阶段、城镇职能与主导产业的影响,各县市水土资源开发的时序不同,城镇化和水土资源效益各自的热点演化格局明显不同,区域联动效应差异显著.③城镇化与水土资源效益冷热点区域的数量结构迥异.城镇不平衡发展仍然是主导趋势,土地资源效益滞后于城镇发展,水资源效益敏感性较强.④塔河流域范围广,自然条件复杂,各二级流域城镇化与水土资源效益的差异性显著.⑤城镇化与水土资源效益协调发展度的类型主要为发展水平低和较低两种,协调发展度的空间格局相比其冷热点区域的空间格局更具稳定性,三者差异显著是协调发展度低的重要原因.

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Urbanization and Land and Water Resources Efficiency of Oasis Cities in Tarim River Basin

This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well asurbanization and their interactions in the Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China.In order to doso,we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources andurbanization for the years of 1995,2000,2005 and 2008.Specifically the paper investigatesthe extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographicallyand interplays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of globalMoran’s I index,Getis-Ord Gi* index and a coordinated development model.The methodused provides clear evidence that urbanization,land and water resources efficiency haveshown an uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution,climate,and initial phase of urbandevelopment.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) Agglomeration and dispersionof urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency.(2)Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization,and land and water resources efficiency,in different trajectories,indicate that there are no significant interactions between them.(3)The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varyingstructures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area.(4)Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors,which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area.(5) The degree ofdevelopment coordination of cities in the Tarim River Basin is generally low in part as areflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors.It is also shown that the patternof the degree of coordination development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hotand cold spots of the three factors.