长沙市人居环境与经济协调发展的不确定性评价(英文)

The coordinated development of human settlement environment and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. Urban human settlement and economic systems exist in urban ecosystems, which are a structural complexity. Therefore the research is being challenged by some uncertain factors between human settlements and economic systems. However most of the researches were focused on its determinate objective aspects and qualitative analyses while less concern on the quantitative evaluation of coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy, especially little on its uncertain aspect. At present, the urgent task is to study the coordinated development of urban settlement environment and economy in terms of the effect of uncertainty. This study analyzed the uncertain characteristics, which would be confronted at different stages, such as confirming the index categories, their bound values, and their construction rate, etc. According to the actual urban conditions, many construction principles based on uncertainties are put forward and an indicating system for human settlement and economic evaluation is established. Moreover, the application of fuzzy mathematics presents a new method and a calculation model for the comprehensive assessment of the coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy. The application of the method and model in Changsha city of China showed that the assessment results can reflect not only the overall coordination degree of the city, but also the mode of interactive mechanism between urban economic system and human settlement environment.     

The calculation and analysis of ecological footprints,diversity and development capacity of China

The ecological footprint of China’s provinces is calculated in this paper.In general,China’s development is not sustainable because its ecological footprint is beyond its bio-capacity.The sustainability status of each province in China is presented.Ulanowicz’s developmnt capacity formula was introduced to discuss th relation ship of development and ecological footprint’s diversity.The diversity of ecological impacts is related to the efficiency with which an economy uses the source and sink services of the environment and,in this efficiency with which an economy uses the source and sink services of the environment and ,in this view,should be a factor in economic output.Development capacity,calculated from the ecological footprint and its diversity,is used to examine the relationship o economic output with the structure of the ecological footprint.China and its provinces are presented as a case study to investigate this relationship.The analysis shows that footprint capacity is significant in prdicting economic output.Increasing the ecological footprint’s diversity is presented as another way to increase development capacity.     

基于能值的内蒙古可持续发展评价(英文)

An integrated environmental accounting of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(IMAR) is presented in this paper based on emergy analysis with data from 1987 to 2007.Through calculating environmental and economic inputs and a series of emergy indicators,this paper discusses IMAR’s resource use structure,economic situation,and trade status.The results show that more than 85% of the emergy used in IMAR was derived from home sources,indicating a strong capacity for self-sufficiency.Concentrated-used local non-renewable emergy,which provides IMAR economy with most of the driving forces,took the largest share in total emergy use after 2004 and reached 58% in 2007.The Western China Development Plan of 2000 ushered in a rapid growth of coal and electricity production and exportation to other regions of China from IMAR.The export/import emergy ratio of IMAR reached 3.46 in 2007,with the coal exported(3.44 10 23 sej in 2007) without being used by IMAR itself,accounting for almost 100% of the difference between the imports and exports.The results also show that from 1987 to 1998,EmSI values remained higher than 10,suggesting underdevelopment in IMAR;after 1998,EmSI values decreased sharply from 19.07 in 1998 to 1.88 in 2007,indicating that IMAR is characterized by medium-run sustainability and is relying more on non-renewable resources and imports.     

中国天山冰川生态服务功能及价值评估（英文）

Mountain glaciers, which perform a unique and irreplaceable ecological service, provide the material basis and characteristic cultural foundation of the ecological environment and sustainable socio-economic development in arid areas. However, few studies have estimated the service value of glaciers in regulating ecological environment and providing human welfare. According to the statistics of the First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory(FCGI/SCGI), this study analyzed the variations in glacier area and ice volume in the Tianshan Mountains in China and modeled the ecosystem service function of mountain glaciers. The service value per unit area and equivalent factor methods were combined to determine the annual value of the ecological service provided by glaciers in the study area. The results show that:(1) In the period 1970–2010, the glacier area decreased by 1274 km~2(the ratio of area shrinkage was 13.9%) and the annual average decrease in ice volume was 4.08′10~9 m~3. The increase in glacier area at high altitudes( 5200 m) may be due to the fact that glacier accumulation caused by increasing precipitation is greater than glacier melting caused by rising temperatures.(2) The annual value of the ecological service provided by glaciers in the study area is 60.2 billion yuan. The values of climate regulation, hydrological regulation, and freshwater resource supply account for 66.4%, 21.6%, and 9.3% of the total value respectively. The annual value of the ecological service provided by hydroelectric power is 350 million yuan.(3) From a comparative analysis of the glaciers, forest, grassland and wetland ecosystems, the supply of freshwater resources/physical production and ecological regulation represent the main contributions of the four types of system, and the ecosystem service value of glaciers per unit area is higher than that of other types of ecosystem. This research will improve the understanding of the impact of glaciers on human welfare and maintenance of the ecological environment and will promote the ecological security of the cryosphere, environmental protection, and the sustainable use of resources.     

Research on the suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale in China

The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that： （1） The environmental suitability of population distribu- tion at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. （2） The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. （3） The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. （4） The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. （5） The coordination degree between population dis- tribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. （6） The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as： implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, guiding the orderly flow of population, optimizing the spatial distribution of popu- lation and drawing up the spatial planning of population development.     

Assessment and analysis of ecosystem services value along the Yangtze River under the background of the Yangtze River protection strategy

The Yangtze River is the third largest river in the world and the longest and largest river in China.China has adopted a national strategy to protect the Yangtze River.A better understanding of the ecosystem services value along the Yangtze River would provide support for the Yangtze River protection strategy.Using Costanza’s method to estimate the ecosystem services value,the value of 10 ecosystem services was estimated within 1 km and 2 km from the Yangtze River in 2017.These 10 services were derived from the four established groupings of provisioning,regulating,supporting,and cultural services.This study compared and analyzed the changes in the ecosystem services value in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the river,and in provinces,cities,and villages along the Yangtze River.The total ecosystem services value within 1 km and 2 km from the river was 37.208 and 43.769 billion yuan,respectively.Within 1 km,the ecosystem services value in the middle reaches was 12.93 billion yuan,while the next highest value was in the upper reaches at 12.45 billion yuan,and the downstream area had the smallest value of 11.855 billion yuan.Within 2 km,the value of upstream ecosystem services was the highest at 16.31 billion yuan,while the second highest value was in the middle reaches at 14.376 billion yuan,and the smallest value was in the downstream area at 13.083 billion yuan.In the Yangtze River Basin,regulating services played a leading role,accounting for 81.6%and 78.9%of the ecosystem services value within 1 km and 2 km from the river,respectively.Among the 10 ecosystem services,hydrological regulation was the most important,while the value of raw material production made the smallest contribution.Among the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River,the highest ecosystem services value was in Hubei Province,while the lowest values were in Shanghai and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.If villages within 1 km and 2 km from the river were to be relocated,the total regional ecological value would increase by 527 and 975 million yuan,respectively.     

Culturable bacterial diversity in hypolithic and peripheral soils in the west of the Hexi Corridor desert and its influencing factors

Microbes inhabiting the desert respond sensitively to environmental changes and may be an indicator for changes in the desert ecosystem.Hypolithic microbial communities in the desert play a vital role in ecosystem processes such as soil formation and organic matter accumulation.This study investigated and compared the culturable bacterial community structure and diversity in hypolithic and peripheral soils,and the interaction between bacteria and environmental factors.The bacteria were isolated using four different kinds of media and identified by 16S rRNA gene-sequence analysis.The numbers of culturable bacteria in the hypolithic and peripheral soils ranged from 3.0×104 to 3.6×105 CFU/g and from 6.5×104 to 5.3×105 CFU/g,respectively,indicating that the bacteria number in peripheral soil was higher than that in hypolithic soil.A total of 98 species belonging to 34 genera were identified,among which Arthrobacter,Bacillus,and Streptomyces were found dominantly and widely distributed.The community of culturable bacteria had obvious sample specificity,and the diversity in hypolithic soil was higher than that in peripheral soil.On the regional scale,the distribution of culturable bacteria and the environmental factors showed regular changes.On the local scale,the high heterogeneity of the hypolithic environment determined the specificity of the number and species of culturable bacteria.     

中国能源消费与气候变化的关系

Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. Itchanges between the climate energy consumption andalso goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumptionenergy consumption and the economic level inand climate factor and between the socio-economic energy between the climate energy level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.     

Spatial quality： analysis of China＇s eco-environmental 1990-2010

Over the past two decades in China, stress on the environment has increased continuously. This paper will assess the change in environmental quality over time, and its spatial variation using data from the statistical yearbooks of 31 provincial administrative regions in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. These books provide a general assessment of the environment at the provincial level, and the three major economic regions from western to eastern China. By using the geographic information system （GIS） and SPSS, we analyzed the changing trend of China＇s eco-environment and calculated the changing trajectory in the gravity center of the eco-environmental quality. We conclude the following. （1） From 1990 to 2010, the rate of deterioration of the environment went down. We argue that the cause of this trend was neither the result as ＂the deterioration trend was under control＂ noticed by the government departments concerned, nor ＂the deterioration rate of the environment was increasingly intensified＂ suggested by many researchers. （2） Since 1990, the general environment has been worsening in China, but it was improved in some regions; however, the ecological deficit is still expanding and will last for a long time. （3） From western to eastern China, the deterioration rate of environmental quality was slowed down. The reasons include a good natural environment, a developed regional economy, and technology and finance in eastern China. （4） After extensive economic development in China, there are imbalances of population, economy, society, and the environment in the 31 provincial regions. The governments at all levels should play an important role in research and protecting the environment. In addition, it is imperative to implement positive measures such as controlling population, improving the environment, and promoting smart development to balance the socio-ecological system.     

Evaluation of Ecosystem Services Value of the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve by Multiple Criteria

Understanding the value of ecosystem services is useful for the decision making and sustainable management of the wetlands. It would be better to integrate ecological, economic and social factors into ecosystem service valuation. The general value of the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve in the southwest China by integrating a social welfare weight, which is determined by a three-level analytic hierarchy process, was calculated. Through analyzing the functions, stakeholders and ecosystem services of the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve, the six main services, including substance production, flood control, gas regulation, climate regulation, recreation, and biodiversity conservation,were selected; and a three-level hierarchical structure model was established. The top(goal) level of the model refers to the total ecosystem services value of the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve, the middle level(stakeholder level) refers to stakeholders at different scales, and the bottom level(service level) refers to individual services provided by the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve. The results indicated that the ecosystem services value of the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve was 320.38×10~8yuan RMB in 2011. If including the social welfare, the value increased to 2258.68×10~8yuan RMB. The value of biodiversity conservation accounted for the largest proportion, which were 53% without the social welfare and 75% with it. And without the social welfare, flood control, gas regulation, climate regulation of the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve accounted for 26%, 11% and 8% of the total value, while the proportion that substance production and recreation values were of the total value were very small. Meanwhile, with the social weight,flood control, gas regulation, climate regulation, recreation of the Zoigê Wetland Nature Reserve accounted for 10%,13%, 1% and 1% of the total value, then the weight of substance production value was also the smallest.     

基于改进当量的甘肃省耕地生态系统服务价值及其与区域经济发展的空间关系研究

为量化分析耕地生态系统服务价值及其与区域经济发展的空间关系,采用改进的耕地当量因子,对甘肃省2014年耕地生态系统服务价值进行定量化研究,并采用双变量空间自相关探讨其与区域经济发展在空间上的关联关系。结果表明：（1）在GPP修正的基础上估算得到的甘肃省2014年耕地生态系统服务价值为4.96×10¹¹元,其中水资源供给功能的价值为负,食物生产功能的生态系统服务价值相对较高,美学景观功能的生态系统服务价值最低。（2）双变量空间自相关显示人均国内生产总值与耕地生态系统服务价值在空间上存在显著的负相关关系,Moran’s I指数为-0.252 3。局部双变量空间自相关LISA图也显示低-高聚集区主要分布在经济发展相对落后、具有明显生态优势的东南部地区;而高-低聚集区则主要分布在经济高速发展,生态环境相对恶劣的西北部地区。研究结果可为甘肃省生态环境管护与区域经济发展提供决策参考,为实现经济增长与生态保护统筹协调发展提供参考依据。     

农牧交错区土地利用动态与生态效应变化--以榆阳区为例

以榆阳区1988-2003年土地数据为依据,在分析研究区土地利用的数量和结构变化特点的基础上,运用国内外学者在生态价值估算的方法与模式,结合该区的具体情况对估算方法进行修正,然后对研究区研究时段内各年度的生态系统服务功能经济价值进行了估算,并以1988年为基准测算了土地利用类型的数量和结构变化所引起的生态系统服务功能经济价值变化情况,分析了其变化的时段特点及变化原因,定量地揭示了在生态脆弱区环境与经济发展的关系。研究表明：1988-2003年,榆阳区土地利用变化所产生的环境响应总体米说是积极的,生态系统服务功能经济价值年度总量在波动中提高;营造防护林、退耕还林及农用地内部结构调整政策的实施实现了经济和环境双赢的预期效果。     

土地利用生态服务价值与经济发展的协调及空间分异——以西洞庭湖区为例

土地利用生态服务价值体现了土地通过集约利用与空间优化所发挥生态效益的大小,可在一定程度上反映土地利用与与经济发展的协调关系。以西洞庭湖区为研究对象,在ArcGIS软件支持下,通过评价与分析生态服务价值变化,分析生态经济协调发展水平及其空间差异,探讨土地利用生态服务价值与区域经济发展的互动响应与耦合协调关系。研究表明：① 2000年以来西洞庭湖区土地利用生态服务价值呈下降趋势,2000年西洞庭湖区生态服务价值为1292.13×10⁶元·a^-1,2011年为953.03×10⁶元·a^-1,损失339.10×10⁶元。② 从整个研究区来看,整个研究阶段处于低度冲突的县有6个,分别为常德市辖区、安乡县、汉寿县、澧县、临澧县、津市市,只有桃源县处于潜在危机状态。从数量上看,整个区域内大多为冲突状态,区域在经济发展中存在的潜在危机较大。③ 从空间分异来看,2008年与2011年土地利用生态经济协调度基本上为低度冲突状态,需采取生态服务供给恢复与重建措施,控制生态服务消费需求的过快增长。整个区域只有桃源县与汉寿县由不协调转换为协调状态,主要原因是森林覆盖率相对较高,林地类型面积大,水土保持与水源涵养生态服务功能较强,提高了生态服务价值。     

基于生态系统服务价值变化的生态经济协调发展研究

以1987年、2000年和2010年石羊河流域遥感影像数据为基础,对生态系统单位面积服务价值当量因子进行修正,结合生态经济协调度（EEH）评估模型对石羊河流域生态服务价值和经济发展与生态环境的协调发展水平进行了评估。结果表明：（1）研究区生态系统服务价值呈下降趋势,其损失主要集中在2000-2010年间;（2）生态系统服务价值增长的县（区）分布在流域中上游,降低的县（区）中,民勤县的损失量和下降幅度最大;（3）研究区的EEH值为-0.0174,生态经济发展总体上已处于低度冲突水平,在空间上,低度协调的县（区）主要分布在流域的上游和中游,而低度冲突的县（区）主要分布在流域的中下游;（4）各县（区）在协调发展水平上呈现出低度冲突-低度冲突、低度协调-低度协调、低度冲突-低度协调、低度协调-低度冲突、低度协调-中度冲突5种形式。     

湿地生态系统的服务功益及可持续利用

湿地生态系统作为独特的生态系统类型多样,在地球上广泛分布。湿地生态系统在改善环境、调洪蓄洪、为人类提供各种资源等方面,具有调节气候和水文的生态服务功益、保护水禽迁徙和繁育的生态服务功益、丰富的生物多样性、降解和富集污染物的环境服务功益、物质生产服务功益和旅游服务功益等。鉴于目前湿地生态系统服务功益的片面理解和不合理利用问题,对湿地生态系统服务功益的可持续利用现状进行了分析,提出了湿地生态系统服务功益可持续利用的科学对策,包括全面认识和发挥湿地生态系统的生态和环境服务功益;正确处理直接和间接服务功益的关系,提高湿地生态系统的利用效率;寻求实现湿地生态系统综合经济服务功益的最佳开发模式。     

人地系统耦合框架下的生态系统服务

生态系统服务是连接自然环境与人类福祉的桥梁,是人地系统耦合研究的核心内容。本文在构建生态系统服务与人地系统耦合研究框架的基础上,系统梳理了生态系统服务评估、生态系统服务权衡、生态系统服务影响因素、生态系统服务供给流动与需求等研究前沿,提出了未来生态系统服务研究的重点领域。主要研究结论认为：①国际生态系统服务模型发展迅速,SAORES模型是中国生态系统服务模型优化与参数本地化的突出代表;②生态系统服务权衡具有相对复杂的时空尺度,权衡分析的前提是辨析不同尺度生态系统结构—过程—功能—服务的作用机制;③自然因素是生态系统服务时空分布的基础,土地利用能改变生态系统结构、功能与生态系统服务变化,社会经济因素会导致生态系统服务权衡的差异;④为明晰生态系统服务供给与需求耦合关系,需进一步识别生态系统服务流的运移路径;⑤未来生态系统服务研究需加强生态系统服务对全球变化的响应特征和机制分析、面向可持续发展目标的生态系统服务供给流动与需求研究、生态系统服务的动态评价集成与优化、生态系统服务与人地系统耦合、生态系统服务与大数据集成等。     

多情景模拟下宁夏平原生态系统服务簇识别研究

识别生态系统服务簇及其演化轨迹对区域生态服务管理至关重要,但目前研究多基于历史时期或单一时间节点,对于生态系统服务簇进行情景分析的研究还较为欠缺。本文以宁夏平原为研究对象,首先基于CA-Markov模型对宁夏平原地区土地利用进行多情景模拟,然后使用价值当量因子法对生态系统服务价值进行核算,最后使用Pearson相关系数法分析各项生态系统服务价值间的权衡协同关系,使用K-Mean聚类分析及稳定隐射变化轨迹法识别生态系统服务簇及其演化轨迹。结果发现：不论是历史时期还是未来各种情景之下,宁夏平原土地利用面积转化及空间转置集中在林地、湿地与建设用地当中;除生态保护情景下宁夏平原生态系统服务价值将由116.75亿元增至135.25亿元,其余各情景以及历史时期均呈不同程度的下降趋势;在历史时期以及未来多情景下,宁夏平原各类型服务价值之间大部分呈协同关系,优势簇以食物生产为主导功能,且常年以此类型服务簇为主。     

基于结构方程模型的南方丘陵山地农户福祉与生态系统服务关系——以广东省乐昌市为例

以农户福祉和生态系统服务关系为研究视角，选取地处南方丘陵山地重点生态功能区的广东省乐昌市的8个地形地貌相似、但发展存有差异的村庄为研究对象，基于实地调研、问卷访谈等，采用模糊综合评价法对其2005及2018年农户福祉发展水平进行综合评价；并利用结构方程模型，对农户福祉与生态系统服务之间的关系进行耦合分析。结果表明：1）2005—2018年，农户福祉水平各指标均有一定程度的提升，其中农户收入水平、居住条件等显著增加，其评价值分别由2005年的0.294和0.245增加到2018年的0.385和0.422，同时农户对生态保护的意识逐渐加强。2）农户对生态系统服务功能的认识程度整体呈上升趋势，特别是对文化服务功能的感知有较大的提升，其感知值由2005年的0.251增加到2018年的0.370。3）生态系统四大服务功能与农户福祉水平均存在一定的耦合关系，其中供给服务、文化服务与农户福祉的关系密切。4）加强提升生态系统的文化服务能力，大力发展“特色种植＋林下经济＋生态旅游”等低影响经济发展模式，有利于生态系统服务维护与农户福祉的提高，促进重点生态功能区生态环境和农村经济社会的持续发展。     

生态系统服务权衡研究进展：从认知到决策

作为沟通自然生态系统与人类社会的重要桥梁,生态系统服务一直以来都是地理学、生态学等学科的研究前沿和热点。正确认知生态系统服务之间的关系,是开展多种生态系统服务可持续管理决策的前提,有助于人类福祉的全面提升。本文通过厘定生态系统服务权衡的概念内涵,梳理了生态系统服务权衡的空间、时间和可逆性特征,将多层次人类福祉的满足作为权衡的最终目标,视生态补偿为权衡决策的基本保障途径。生态系统服务权衡关系的识别依托于定量指标法和综合模型法,且权衡关系可能随时空尺度的推移发生改变;情景分析与多目标分析是生态系统服务权衡决策的有效手段。生态系统服务权衡多尺度关联、生态系统服务流与远程耦合、生态系统服务消费与生态补偿,成为当前生态系统服务权衡研究的重点方向。     

粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务价值的时空演化及其影响机制

生态系统服务是生态要素、结构、功能和产品造福于人类社会的媒介和通道。根据生态系统服务价值（ESV）及其影响机制调节人类社会对生态系统的利用强度和保护方式,对于实现人地和谐的可持续发展目标具有重要意义。本文以粤港澳大湾区作为研究对象,依托遥感数据修订ESV核算结果,更加准确地揭示2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区ESV的时空演变特征,并引入面板分位数回归深入探索生态系统服务影响因素的分段效应,增加对生态系统服务影响机制的认识。结果显示：① 2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区ESV减速下降,下降区域主要分布在粤港澳大湾区中部和珠江入海口两岸等城市快速扩张区。② 在城市交界处,土地利用变化会带来更为强烈的ESV变化。③ 在ESV水平不同的区域,影响因素具有不同的影响效果。用地完整度仅在ESV的低值区可以促进生态系统服务能力提升。气温对生态系统服务能力的正向作用随ESV的提高而增强,经济密度对生态系统服务能力的负向作用随ESV的提高而减弱,二者均会导致ESV高值区与低值区间的差距增大,形成“自然马太效应”。