多情景模拟下宁夏平原生态系统服务簇识别研究

识别生态系统服务簇及其演化轨迹对区域生态服务管理至关重要，但目前研究多基于历史时期或单一时间节点，对于生态系统服务簇进行情景分析的研究还较为欠缺。本文以宁夏平原为研究对象，首先基于CA-Markov模型对宁夏平原地区土地利用进行多情景模拟，然后使用价值当量因子法对生态系统服务价值进行核算，最后使用Pearson相关系数法分析各项生态系统服务价值间的权衡协同关系，使用K-Mean聚类分析及稳定隐射变化轨迹法识别生态系统服务簇及其演化轨迹。结果发现：不论是历史时期还是未来各种情景之下，宁夏平原土地利用面积转化及空间转置集中在林地、湿地与建设用地当中；除生态保护情景下宁夏平原生态系统服务价值将由116.75亿元增至135.25亿元，其余各情景以及历史时期均呈不同程度的下降趋势；在历史时期以及未来多情景下，宁夏平原各类型服务价值之间大部分呈协同关系，优势簇以食物生产为主导功能，且常年以此类型服务簇为主。

Identification of ecosystem service bundles in Ningxia Plain under multi-scenario simulation

Identifying ecosystem services bundles and their evolution trajectory is very important for regional ecological service management. However, most of the current researches are based on historical period or single time node, and the research on scenario analysis of ecosystem services bundle is still lacking. This paper selects Ningxia Plain in northwest China as the research object. First, we designed three development scenarios: natural development scenario, ecological conservation scenario and economic priority scenario. Then, we used CA-Markov model to simulate the land use in Ningxia Plain under different scenarios, and applied the value equivalent factor method to account for the ecosystem service values, and used Pearson correlation coefficient method to analyze the trade-off synergistic relationship among ecosystem service values. Finally, we used K-Mean cluster analysis method and stable implicit change trajectory method to determine the ecosystem service bundles and their evolutionary trajectories. We obtained the following conclusions: (1) The land use area transformation and spatial transposition in Ningxia Plain are concentrated in forestland, wetland and construction land in historical periods or in various scenarios in the future. (2) Except for the ecological conservation scenario, the value of ecosystem services in Ningxia Plain will increase from 116.75×10² million CNY to 135.25×10² million CNY, and other scenarios and historical periods show a downward trend to different degrees. Under the economic priority scenario, the value of ecosystem services will be reduced to 98.28×10² million CNY, which is the scenario with the largest decline. (3) In the historical period and different scenarios in the future, most of the service values in Ningxia Plain are synergistic, and the dominant function of dominant bundle is food production, and this type of services bundle is dominant all the year round.