南亚高压南部环境位涡对台风加强的影响分析

利用2002—2009年8年中6、7、8、9月的NCEP 1 °×1 °再分析资料对登陆我国大陆的台风与150 hPa高层位涡的关系进行统计,8年中共有23个台风受到150 hPa南亚高压南部边缘位涡的影响。其中3个台风(0216“森拉克”、0604“碧利斯”、0903“莲花”),在其发展初期在南亚高压南部的大值环境位涡进入台风中心后,台风中心气压下降。通过诊断分析从等值线的角度得出高层位涡与此类台风发展的关系,在150 hPa高层正位涡异常的作用下,等熵面向大值位涡处汇聚,这种形式可使正位涡异常区两侧的等熵面向下倾斜,从而引起台风中高层的暖中心加强以及中层位涡增大,中层的位涡增大以及暖中心的出现又有利于低层气旋性涡度增长,导致台风中心气压下降,使台风强度增强。根据吴国雄的倾斜涡度发展(SVD)理论,其原因可能是等熵面倾斜使垂直涡度发展,从而加强对流运动潜热释放使台风暖心加强,使得台风的强度加强。通过位涡反演试验也证实了高层位涡对中层位涡发展的影响大于低层。      

湿斜压性与热带气旋强度突变

应用湿位涡方程和倾斜涡度发展理论 ,研究了热带气旋内部相当位温结构的演变与其强度突变的可能关系 ,并用一套高分辨率的模拟资料对所得结论进行验证。结果表明 ,由于热带气旋眼壁附近等相当位温面陡立 ,湿斜压性变化所激发的倾斜涡度发展是引起该区域垂直涡度突然增大或突然减小的主要原因。当热带气旋中心附近大部分区域的垂直涡度显著增长时 ,热带气旋就会在整体上表现为爆发性或迅速发展。最后还据此对同心双眼结构的出现和消失如何影响热带气旋强度变化进行了探讨。     

闽南地区酸雨特征与其影响天气系统的统计分析

使用WRF有限区域模式对2002年第5号台风(Rammasun)减弱后在长白山脉诱生新涡旋产生复合系统的过程进行了60h的模拟。通过对模拟结果的倾斜涡度发展分析,揭示了当减弱的热带气旋移近较高大山脉时,通过与环境场的相互作用可以使空气产生沿倾斜等熵面的下滑运动。在此基础上,热带气旋减弱引起的风的垂直切变的改变可以引起垂直涡度的发展从而诱生新的涡旋中心。     

一次温带气旋涡度场演变特征及气旋发生发展机制分析

气旋是涡旋运动,因此相对涡度(以下简称涡度)是确切表征气旋中心位置和强度的物理量,分析气旋发生发展过程就是分析涡度的变化机理。文中采用1000 hPa地转风涡度表征地面气旋,利用常规地面观测、6 h一次的NCEP 1°×1°再分析场等资料,对2014年6月一次具有螺旋式回转路径的北方温带气旋过程进行了诊断分析。利用Petterssen地面气旋发展公式,再结合300 hPa涡度平流、散度场与850 hPa热力场的配置关系,考察了对流层中低层温度平流、500 hPa涡度平流以及300 hPa涡度平流引起的辐散对地面气旋发展的贡献。结果表明:(1)这次气旋过程中500、300 hPa存在两个正涡度区及涡度中心的替换:即在地面气旋发生发展阶段,第一个涡度中心为主要的涡度中心;在气旋减弱阶段,第二个涡度中心成为主要的涡度中心。(2)地面和高空涡度中心均以逆时针螺旋式路径移动。在地面气旋初生和发展阶段,高低层涡度中心及正涡度区呈后倾结构;当高低层涡度中心及正涡度区几乎垂直重合时,地面气旋停止发展。(3)温度平流项在气旋初生阶段起主要作用;500 hPa涡度平流决定了地面气旋的发展。(4)当300 hPa正涡度平流引起的辐散区叠加在对流层低层850 hPa斜压锋区上时,地面气旋发展。     

涡旋发展和移动的动力和热力问题Ⅱ:广义倾斜涡度发展

从位涡-位温（PV-θ）以及拉格朗日观点,引入广义倾斜涡度发展的概念研究绝热条件下的垂直涡度发展。广义倾斜涡度发展是一个与涡度发展的坐标无关的概念框架,该框架包括倾斜涡度发展。倾斜涡度发展研究当大气处于稳定或不稳定层结情形,空气质点沿着向上凸的陡峭等熵面下滑或沿着向下凹的陡峭等熵面上滑过程垂直涡度激烈发展。因此,倾斜涡度发展是研究强烈天气过程的涡度发展非常强的情形。此外,广义倾斜涡度发展概念澄清了涡度发展和倾斜涡度发展的区别,涡度发展和倾斜涡度发展的判别标准表明,倾斜涡度发展的要求比涡度发展的要求严格很多。在空气质点沿着向上凸的陡峭等熵面下滑或沿着向下凹的陡峭等熵面上滑过程,当在稳定大气中静力稳定度（θ_z）迅速减小或在不稳定大气中静力稳定度（θ_z）迅速增大,即静力稳定度（θ_z）趋于0时,如果C_D<0,那么垂直涡度将急速发展。应用得到的理论结果分析了2008年7月下旬的一次青藏高原低涡过程,该低涡形成于青藏高原中西部,东移滑出青藏高原然后继续东移,给四川盆地和长江中下游带来强降水。诊断表明,2008年7月22日00—06时（世界时）青藏高原低涡沿着四川盆地东北边的斜坡爬升时低涡加强发展,PV₂变化对低涡加强发展有贡献,因为此时的水平涡度（η_s）变化和斜压度（θ_s）变化都对垂直涡度发展起正贡献。而且,22日06时,330 K等熵面的倾斜涡度发展判据满足,表明倾斜涡度发展并对垂直涡度发展起重要贡献。围绕着低涡中心较强的涡度发展和倾斜涡度发展信号表明,广义倾斜涡度发展概念框架可以作为诊断天气过程的一个有用工具。     

孟湾风暴影响高原暴雪的个例分析:基于倾斜涡度发展的研究

基于湿位涡(MPV)诊断分析和倾斜涡度发展(SVD)理论,研究了2007年11月一次孟加拉湾热带风暴北上造成青藏高原暴雪的天气事件。结果表明:热带风暴螺旋云系移动至高原东南部受陡峭地形抬升与高层北侧下滑的干冷空气(MPV1正值带)相交汇是导致这次天气过程的重要原因。由于等熵面密集且明显倾斜,在降雪区上空附近大气弱稳定区,负的MPV2对总湿位涡MPV的贡献超过了MPV1,SVD得到较大增长,同时使得MPV0,导致条件性对称不稳定的产生,有利于倾斜涡度的发展。条件性对称不稳定机制是这次暴雪发生、发展的一种可能的重要机制。     

一次爆发性气旋引发东北地区暴雨成因分析

利用2016年5月2—4日NCEP的FNL 1°×1°再分析资料和GDAS的1°×1°再分析资料、地面观测资料,运用天气学分析、等熵位涡、物理量诊断和水汽来源追踪等方法,从大尺度环流背景、水汽源地和输送、动力和热力机制、等熵位涡等方面对2016年春季一次地面气旋爆发性发展导致的东北地区暴雨天气过程进行了分析。结果表明:位于40°N附近的黄淮气旋北上加强发展,2日14时至3日14时中心气压下降24 hPa,超过爆发性气旋的定义标准。500 hPa高空槽快速加强发展为闭合低涡,低空切变线加强发展为低空低涡,其东部形成明显的低空急流,为暴雨区提供水汽和热量,为东北地区典型的暖式切变降水。等熵位涡自320 K高层向305 K低层输送下传,并逐步向南向东移动,高空正位涡的下传促使地面气旋快速发展,上升运动加强,有利于暴雨的出现。比湿在6 g·kg^(-1)以上对东北地区春末夏初暴雨预报有一定的参考意义。水汽主要来源于东海、黄海及西北太平洋。暴雨区与850 hPa水汽通量散度的负值区、700 hPa垂直速度和850 hPa绝对涡度大值区较为一致,强降水区与850 hPa相当位温密集带和暖区锋生区相对应,降水位于能量锋区以及偏暖区一侧。     

华南暴雨中尺度对流系统的形成及湿位涡分析

利用MM5模式对发生在1998年5月23～24日华南暴雨和中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective System,简称MCS)模拟的模式输出资料,根据湿位涡守恒原理和倾斜涡度发展理论分析了暴雨和MCS形成和发展的原因.结果表明,暴雨和MCS发生在倾斜湿等熵面具有弱对流稳定性的下陷区,沿湿等熵面下滑的冷空气与倾斜上升并具有较强对流有效位能的暖湿空气在下陷区会合的过程中经历了对流稳定性减小的过程,导致暴雨和MCS发生发展区域有气旋性的涡旋发展.对流发展区域的上空满足条件对称不稳定发生的条件,MCS中上升气流呈倾斜状态.由于湿等熵面倾斜,在暴雨和MCS的发展过程中,水平风垂直切变和湿斜压度的增大也有利于涡旋的发展,使暴雨和MCS得以维持.最后,给出了华南地区湿等熵面上暴雨和MCS发生发展的一个物理概念模型.     

青藏高原一次MCC转MCV过程研究北大核心CSCD

利用WRF(ARW)模式、WRF-3DVAR系统以及ATOVS卫星资料,对2013年7月22-23日高原上的一次MCC转化MCV的过程进行了直接同化试验和数值模拟。同化的模拟结果表明,同化不同传感器资料效果相差较大;同时同化多种传感器资料并未比单一资料效果好;连续循环同化有效改善了高原MCV的强度和位置模拟。选定循环同化AMSUB资料为最优同化方案,对此次高原MCC转化为MCV的过程进行分析:中尺度涡旋和强降水均发生在湿等熵面下陷区域。高空正的湿位涡异常叠加低层正温度异常,在此过程中经历对流不稳定度的减弱,诱生出气旋性环流并向下伸展,使得气旋性涡度发展,降水发生,而水汽的凝结潜热释放进一步加剧了湿等熵面的倾斜,从而使得垂直涡度进一步发展。同时,在此过程中受水汽加热的影响,水平相当位温梯度减弱,负的斜压项减弱,使得总的湿位涡正值增大。另外,比较了东部MCV与高原MCV的差异,发现后者由于高原的加热作用,低层的涡度值较大。     

青藏高原一次MCC转MCV过程研究

利用WRF(ARW)模式、WRF-3DVAR系统以及ATOVS卫星资料,对2013年7月22-23日高原上的一次MCC转化MCV的过程进行了直接同化试验和数值模拟。同化的模拟结果表明,同化不同传感器资料效果相差较大;同时同化多种传感器资料并未比单一资料效果好;连续循环同化有效改善了高原MCV的强度和位置模拟。选定循环同化AMSUB资料为最优同化方案,对此次高原MCC转化为MCV的过程进行分析:中尺度涡旋和强降水均发生在湿等熵面下陷区域。高空正的湿位涡异常叠加低层正温度异常,在此过程中经历对流不稳定度的减弱,诱生出气旋性环流并向下伸展,使得气旋性涡度发展,降水发生,而水汽的凝结潜热释放进一步加剧了湿等熵面的倾斜,从而使得垂直涡度进一步发展。同时,在此过程中受水汽加热的影响,水平相当位温梯度减弱,负的斜压项减弱,使得总的湿位涡正值增大。另外,比较了东部MCV与高原MCV的差异,发现后者由于高原的加热作用,低层的涡度值较大。     

AN EXPERIMENT STUDY OF FRONTAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN*

By using PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model,a 60-h simulation is performed to reproduce a frontal cyclogenesis over the Western Atlantic Ocean during March 13-15 1992.The model reproduces well the genesis,track and intensity of the cyclone,its associated thermal structure as well as its surface circulation.The major cyclone (M) deepens 45 hPa in the 60-h simulation and 12 hPa in 6 hours from 36 h to 42 h (model time) and 27 hPa in 24 hours from 36 h to 60 h (model time).Cross-section and isentropic analysis tell us that the cyclogenesis is in very close relation with slantwise isentropic surfaces;the cyclone is always superposed on the core of neutral convective stability with nearly vertical isentropic surfaces,which coincides with what the theory of Slantwise Vorticity Development (SVD) says.Beginning with the theory of SVD,the development and propagation of the oceanic frontal cyclone are studied by using high-resolution model output in the context of slantwise isentropic surfaces.The results show that the frontal cyclone deepens rapidly by the interaction with the large-scale environment after occurring over the ocean with weak static stability;and the theory of SVD can well interpret the development and propagation closely related with slantwise isentropic surfaces,The downstream slantwise up-sliding movement along canting isentropic surfaces makes vorticities develop (USVD) under favorable condition (C_D<0,where CD is SVD index),and results in the moving and development of the cyclone.     

Up-sliding Slantwise Vorticity Development and the complete vorticity equation with mass forcing

The moist potential vorticity (MPV) equation is derived from complete atmospheric equations including the effect of mass forcing, with which the theory of Up-sliding Slantwise Vorticity Development (USVD) is proposed based on the theory of Slantwise Vorticity Development (SVD). When an air parcel slides up along a slantwise isentropic surface, its vertical component of relative vorticity will develop, and the steeper the isentropic surface is, the more violent the development will be. From the definition of MPV and the MPV equation produced here in, a complete vorticity equation is then put forward with mass forcing, which explicitly includes the effects of both internal forcings, such as variations of stability, baroclinicity, and vertical shear of horizontal wind, and external forcings, such as diabatic heating, friction, and mass forcing.When isentropic surfaces are flat, the complete vorticity equation matches its traditional counterpart. The physical interpretations of some of the items which are included in the complete vorticity equation but not in the traditional one are studied with a simplified model of the ChangjiangoHuaihe Meiyu front. A 60-h simulation is then performed to reproduce a torrential rain event in the ChangjiangoHuaihe region and the output of the model is studied qualitatively based on the theory of USVD. The result shows that the conditions of the theory of USVD are easily satisfied immediately in front of mesoscale rainstorms in the downwind direction, that is, the theory of USVD is important to the development and movement of these kinds of systems.     

引发东北极端暴雪的黄渤海气旋爆发性发展机制

利用高分辨率观测资料和ERA5再分析资料, 分析造成2021年11月7—8日东北极端暴雪的温带气旋结构特征及爆发性发展机制, 结果表明:温带气旋发生在高空冷涡背景下, 地面气旋在黄海形成后出现爆发性快速增强并沿东北地区东部北上。地面降雪区主要分布在气旋西侧, 且降雪强度与气旋的发生发展密切相关;地面气旋在爆发性发展后由叶状云系演变为逗点涡旋云系, 并表现出明显的锋面断裂和暖锋包卷;其垂直结构也先后出现高空锋区断裂、干暖核形成和中性锢囚锋区加强;西伯利亚高压脊、华北高空槽和东北高压脊3个异常中心构成Rossby波列, 随着高度异常中心不断东移及波能量向下游地区频散, 华北高空槽区的波作用通量明显增大导致华北冷涡快速增强, 涡度因子的急剧增大有利于地面气旋爆发性发展;随着平流层位涡高值区沿等熵面不断向南发展和向下传播, 导致中层冷涡快速发展并向下伸展, 诱发地面气旋爆发性增强。     

A CASE STUDY OF FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND ITS SENSITIVITY TO COASTAL INITIAL CONDITIONS*

In this study,the predictability and physical processes leading to the rapid frontal cyclogenesis,that took place in the east coast of the U.S.during 3-4 October 1987,are examined using a nestedgrid.mesoscale model with a fine-mesh grid size of 25km.It is shown that the model reproduces reasonably well the cyclogenesis in a coastal baroclinic zone.its subsequent deepening and movement as well as the pertinent precipitation.It is found that the frontal cyclogenesis occurs in a favorable large-scale environment with pronounced thermal advection in the lower troposphere and marked potential vorticity(PV) concentration aloft associated with the tropopause depression.The transport of warm and moist air from the marine boundary layer by the low-level in-shore flow provides the necessary energy source for the observed heavy precipitation and a variety of weather phenomena reported in the cold sector.Several 24-h sensitivity simulations are performed to examine the relative importance of diabatic heating,adiabatic dynamics and various initial conditions in the frontal cyclogenesis.It is found that latent heat release,even though quite intense,accounts for only 25% of the cyclone's total deepening in this case:the weak impact seems due to the occurrence of latent heating in the cold sector and the upward lifting of the dynamical tropopause by diabatic updrafts.Vorticity budgets show that the lowlevel thermal advection dominates the incipient stage,whereas the vorticity advection determines the rapid deepening rate at the mature stage.The results reveal that the predictability of the present storm is closely related to the vertical coupling between the surface cyclone and the upper-level PV core,which is in turn determined by initial offshore perturbations in the lower troposphere.     

ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOCATED AT SOUTH EDGE OF SOUTH ASIA HIGH ON INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

The NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis of June-to-September dataset between 2002 to 2009 is used in this study to conduct statistical analysis of the relationship between the environmental potential vorticity(PV)on 150 hPa located at the south edge of South Asia High(SAH)and TCs making landfall.The results show that 23 of the TCs are affected by the PV on 150 hPa located at the south edge of SAH between 2002 to2009,and three TCs'center pressure decline after the high-value environmental PV moves to the center of the TCs.These three TCs are Senlaku(0216),Bilis(0604)and Linfa(0903).Through diagnostic analysis from the viewpoint of isolines,we determined the relationship between the intensification of these TCs and the PV anomaly at high levels;the isentropic surface is close to the high level’s PV anomaly under the influence of the 150-hPa PV anomaly,leading to the decline of isentropic surfaces on both sides of the PV anomaly.Then the warm core of the middle and high levels of the TC strengthens and PV increases at the middle level,and both of them are beneficial to the reinforcement of the cyclonic vorticity in the low level.As a result,the center pressure of the TC declines.According to Wu’s theory of Slantwise Vorticity Development(SVD),the incline of the isentropic surfaces leads to the development of vertical vorticity,contributing to the vertical motion and the release of the latent heat.Then the warm core of the TC strengthens and the TC strengthens,too.Otherwise,piecewise PV inversion also shows that the high-level PV influences the mid-level more than the low level.     

暴雨中尺度气旋发展的等熵面位涡分析

利用中尺度模式ＭＭ４对１９９１年７月５～６日的江淮梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了数值模拟。用模式输 出资料，根据湿位涡理论分析了这次暴雨过程中对流层低层的中尺度低涡及地面气旋发生发 展的原因。结果表明，在有利的等熵面形态下，具有较高湿位涡值的高层冷空气沿等熵面快 速向南下降的过程中绝对涡度增加，导致了气旋性涡旋的发展加强。     

ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS ON THE MESOSCALE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN A TORRENTIAL RAIN PROCESS*

The mesoscale model MM4 is used to simulate the torrential rain associated with Meiyu front occurring on 5-6 July.1991 in the Changjiang-Huaihe Basin.Based on the outputs of the model,the cause of the mesoscale cyclogenesis on the lower troposphere is investigated in terms of the potential vorticity principle.The results show that because of the favorable pattern of moist isentropic surface,the absolute vorticity increases when cold air with high moist potential vorticity value rapidly slides down southwards along the moist isentropic surface,and then causes the cyclonic vortex development.     

东亚及西太平洋锋面气旋的统计研究

用1958到1989年共32年资料对东亚及西太平洋地区的锋面气旋做了统计研究,气旋生成有两个主要的集中区,蒙古生成区次数最多,沿海生成区次之并还可以分为两个分区。各生成区中心位置和中心数值随季节有不同的变化。 气旋中心气压24小时变化值呈负偏态分布,海洋地区气旋的负偏度更大,爆发性气旋主要出现在海洋上,沿海地区也时有发生。有明显年际、月际变化,主要发生在冬季,次为春季.文中还对爆发性气旋各种特征参数做了详细统计。 用计算气旋活动的相对变率方法,定出了四季气旋主要活动路径。     

Mesoscale dynamics and its application in torrential rainfall systems in China

Progress over the past decade in understanding moisture-driven dynamics and torrential rain storms in China is reviewed in this paper. First, advances in incorporating moisture effects more realistically into theory are described, including the development of a new parameter, generalized moist potential vorticity(GMPV) and an improved moist ageostrophic Q vector(Qum). Advances in vorticity dynamics are also described, including the adoption of a "parcel dynamic" approach to investigate the development of the vertical vorticity of an air parcel; a novel theory of slantwise vorticity development, proposed because vorticity develops easily near steep isentropic surfaces; and the development of the convective vorticity vector(CVV)as an effective new tool. The significant progress in both frontal dynamics and wave dynamics is also summarized, including the geostrophic adjustment of initial unbalanced flow and the dual role of boundary layer friction in frontogenesis, as well as the interaction between topography and fronts, which indicate that topographic perturbations alter both frontogenesis and frontal structure. For atmospheric vortices, mixed wave/vortex dynamics has been extended to explain the propagation of spiral rainbands and the development of dynamical instability in tropical cyclones. Finally, we review wave and basic flow interaction in torrential rainfall, for which it was necessary to extend existing theory from large-scale flows to mesoscale fields, enriching our knowledge of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics.     

地形影响蒙古气旋发展的观测和模拟研究

针对2001年4月上旬一次蒙古气旋发展过程中的地形因素进行了观测和模拟研究, 结果表明:依据低层冷空气是否越过阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地产生气旋冷锋, 蒙古气旋的发生发展过程可以划分为触发和发展两个阶段。在气旋的发展阶段, 斜压不稳定是其主要强迫机制。伴随地形对低层冷空气阻滞程度的变化, 蒙古气旋经历了从缓慢发展到剧烈加强的过程。阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地通过对低层冷空气的阻滞使山地上空等熵面更为陡立, 加强了对流层低层的斜压强迫, 从而使斜压强迫的涡度增长向低层聚集, 导致气旋发展强度增强。阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地及其南侧形成的峡谷地形对低空急流的位置、范围、强度及演变过程具有较重要影响。另外, 对流层高层位涡平流也是气旋发展的一个强迫因素, 但其影响较小。