一阶Buterworth递归式带通滤波器技术改进方案

把一阶Ｂｕｔｔｅｒｗｏｒｔｈ递归式（ＦＢＲ）带通滤波器应用于滑动样本,输出序列出现了振幅和位相的相对误差。为了克服这种现象给制作中长期预报带来的困难,作者通过数值试验,分析了该滤波器的误差传递特性,并设计了“拟定初值的三步滤波方案”。大量试验表明,该方案可较为有效地抑制输出序列的误差和位相飘移     

季节内振荡研究中两种数字滤波器的性能对比

就长序列资料的MJO滤波，分析了Lanczos滤波器与Butterworth滤波器的滤波性能，结果表明：1)在滤波器参数n足够大时，Lanczos滤波器对MJO信息的滤出和对非MJO信息盼抑制均优于Butterworth滤波器；2)在分辨率为△=1d、MJO为30～60d定义下，Lanczos滤波器参数的阈值n1=69d，当n≥n1时，可以保证Lanczos滤波器优越性成立。     

基于EPGA的FIR滤波器设计与仿真

介绍了数字滤波器理论及其常见实 现方法的基础,提出了一种基于EPGA的高效实现方案''该方案采用对称结构,加法、乘法运算和级联技术,利EPGA 芯片Maxplus软件对该方案进行了仿 真验证。结果表明基于EPGA的实现方案速度快、实时性好%节省硬件资源,具有重要的工程应用价值。     

不同数字滤波方法在风暴轴研究中的性能比较

比较了Butterworth带通滤波器和不同截断方式下的对称滤波器在风暴轴研究中对天气尺度瞬变波动的滤波性能。理论分析表明：当n≥9时,在天气尺度为2．5～6．0d的定义下,对称滤波器对天气尺度瞬变波动的滤波性能优于Butterworth带通滤波器。针对逐日观测资料,对称滤波器在研究天气尺度瞬变波动问题时取截断参数n=15相对最优。在此截断参数条件下,正弦截断对称滤波器的滤波性能优于梯形截断对称滤波器,且两者均优于Butterworth带通滤波器,这种优势在风暴轴偏强的厄尔尼诺年体现得更为明显。在样本序列较短的情况下,为了得到天气尺度瞬变波动,利用Butterworth带通滤波器并选取带通滤波参数为2．5～8．0d的做法是可取的。     

基于DSP的数字助听器多通道响度补偿方案

针对人耳听觉特征,尤其是老年性听损患者的高频听力损失,提出了一种新的利用正交镜像滤波器组（QMFB） 对语音信号进行子带划分的响度补偿方案,利用低通滤波器模拟高频听损状态下的语音信号,设计了一个基于QMFB的非等宽4通道滤波器组对模拟信号进行子带划分响度补偿&最后通过Matlab仿真并TMS320C5402 芯片实现了这一过程。实验与仿真结果显示,该响度补偿方案很好地补偿了老年性听损患者在高频段的语音能量损失,使患者的听力得到显著改善。     

天气尺度瞬变波滤波方案比较分析

利用观测资料，分别使用Batterworth带通滤波器和31点低通滤波器滤出天气尺度瞬变波，计算其方差分布后进行分析。结果表明，31点低通滤波器的滤波效果优于Batterworth带通滤波器，并且在厄尔尼诺年和反厄尔尼诺年效果更为显著。此外，在分别使用两种滤波器的情况下进一步分析、比较对时间序列直接滤波和剔除纬向平均的时间序列再滤波的结果，发现纬向对称部分的瞬变扰动对瞬变波的影响非常小，几乎可以忽略不计。     

提取准双周和准一月低频振荡的Lanczos滤波器及其应用

根据青藏高原大气热源季内振荡分析的实际需要,设计了适于提取准双周（10～20d）、准一月（20～40d）振荡的Lanczos滤波器（L.f.）。通过与Butterworth滤波器（B.f.）滤波效果的定量分析,确定了准双周、准一月L.f.窗宽参数l的临界值l0分别为24、46;当l≥l0时,L.f.滤波器性能全面优于B.f.。选用拉萨附近格点（90°E,30°N）的1950—2006年整层大气热源资料做了应用试验,结果表明,由l=121的L.f.得到的拉萨夏季准双周、准一月振荡分量质量可靠,可用于青藏高原大气热源季内振荡强度的年际差异和季内过程分析。     

青藏高原区域性积雪增量序列及其变化特征

利用青藏高原83个气象台站的逐日积雪观测资料,充分考虑每次降雪过程所引起的积雪变化,建立了该地区1960-2007年度的区域性积雪增量序列,并讨论了其长期变化特征.结果表明:(1)积雪增量序列具有其他积雪参数指标的代表性,又较其他积雪参数指标序列有明显的统计学优点.(2)在48个年度里,1960-1966年度青藏高原区域性积雪增量处于负位相,1967-1998年度为多雪的正位相,1999-2007年度又为少雪的负位相,其中1998年度是个具有显著性的突变点.     

长期大气折射指数预报研究

本文对近地面大气折射指数气候变化统计预报进行了研究,建立了逐步回归多重分析时变模式。在模式中考虑了大气折射指数肘间序列的振动周期、前期预报因子(降水量),还特别考虑了时间序列的振动位相,并随着新数据的到来,适时地改变预报因子和预报方程的参数。本文用该模式对上海近地面6月上旬旬平均大气折射指数进行了长期预报试验,结果表明预报误差较小,预报效果稳定,具有较好的实用价值。这方面的工作可用来对无线电波的传播环境进行预测,从而对电子工程系统进行适时的调整控制。除此而外,该预报模式也可以应用于其它的预报领域。     

平流方程的数值研究

二维平流方程分别用二阶差分方案、四阶差分方案、一维三次样条函数方案及谱导数方案(假谱方案)进行长时间的数值积分,其中风场是给定的均匀旋转风场或形变风场,并分别以不同大小的圆锥状的物理量分布作为初值。数值试验的结果表明,谱导数方案的精度最高,没有位相误差;其次是一维三次样条函数方案;再其次是四阶差分方案;二阶差分方案的精度最差,畸变严重,位相误差大。 对上述四种方案给出用权重系数形式表示的统一的导数计算公式,看到高精度的导数计算公式是非局地性的。     

Two-Dimensional Variational Analysis of Near-Surface Moisture from Simulated Radar Refractivity-Related Phase Change Observations

Because they are most sensitive to atmospheric moisture content, radar refractivity observations can provide high-resolution information about the highly variable low-level moisture field. In this study, simulated radar refractivity-related phase-change data were created using a radar simulator from realistic highresolution model simulation data for a dryline case. These data were analyzed using the 2DVAR system developed specifically for the phase-change data. Two sets of experiments with the simulated observations were performed, one assuming a uniform target spacing of 250 m and one assuming nonuniform spacing between 250 m to 4 km. Several sources of observation error were considered, and their impacts were examined. They included errors due to ground target position uncertainty, typical random errors associated with radar measurements, and gross error due to phase wrapping. Without any additional information, the 2DVAR system was incapable of dealing with phase-wrapped data directly. When there was no phase wrapping in the data, the 2DVAR produced excellent analyses, even in the presence of both position uncertainty and random radar measurement errors. When a separate pre-processing step was applied to unwrap the phase-wrapped data, quality moisture analyses were again obtained, although the analyses were smoother due to the reduced effective resolution of the observations by interpolation and smoothing involved in the unwrapping procedure. The unwrapping procedure was effective even when significant differences existed between the analyzed state and the state at a reference time. The results affirm the promise of using radar refractivity phase-change measurements for near-surface moisture analysis.     

Autoregressive filtering versus linear detrending in estimation of fluxes by the eddy covariance method

The application of autoregressive running mean filtering (RMF) and linear detrending (LDT) in the estimation of turbulent fluxes by the eddy covariance method is analysed. The systematic, as well as the random, errors of the fluxes arising from filtering and/or limited observation time effects are described. To observe negligible systematic errors in fluxes, the RMF has to be applied with moderately long time constants. However, the obtained flux values are subject to increased random errors during periods of non-stationarity and the method leads to systematic overestimation of variances. These shortcomings are not inherent in the LDT approach, which is recommended for use. But the systematic errors of fluxes due to LDT are not negligible under certain experimental conditions and have to be accounted for. The corrections are important because the relatively small errors in short-period fluxes can translate to significant errors in long-period averages. The corrections depend on the turbulence time scales, which should be preferably estimated as ensemble mean variables for a particular site.     

附加相位延迟到弯曲角反演过程中的误差传递模型

为了研究全球卫星导航定位系统无线电掩星探测中的误差传递过程,文中讨论了掩星探测中附加相位延迟到弯曲角的反演过程中,附加相位延迟随机误差对反演弯曲角误差的影响。在对全球卫星导航定位系统和低轨道卫星进行精密定轨的情况下,忽略轨道误差对反演结果的影响,将轨道参数视为常数,考虑附加相位延迟△L存在随机误差δ△L时对反演弯曲角α带来的弯曲角误差δα。利用EGOPS仿真软件,采用数值模拟的方法模拟了无电离层影响的大气附加相位延迟数据,利用CHAMP真实轨道数据,MSIS-90大气模型和全三维射线追踪器进行前向建模,从中选取了一个掩星事件对误差传递模型进行了验证。结果表明:附加相位延迟的变化会给弯曲角的反演带来相应的误差:当随机误差为5 cm左右时,反演的弯曲角误差在±0.2 mrad范围内;当随机误差为1 cm左右时,反演的弯曲角误差在±4μrad范围内;当随机误差为1 mm左右时,反演的弯曲角误差在±40μrad范围内。最后从模拟的掩星事件中随机抽取了20个掩星事件进行统计分析,给出了20个掩星事件存在1 cm附加相位延迟测量误差引起弯曲角误差的均值误差,其误差特性虽略大于个例研究结果,但与模型完全吻合,反演的弯曲角误差也在±40μrad范围内,进一步验证了模型的准确性。     

Displaced-Beam Small Aperture Scintillometer Test. Part I: The Wintex Data-Set

The friction velocity (u_*) and the sensible heat flux density (H) determined with a displaced-beam small aperture scintillometer (DBSAS) and a hot-film eddy correlation system are compared. Random errors in the DBSAS are relatively small, compared to scatter found with two eddy-correlation systems. Assuming that the hot-film system yields the true fluxes, theDBSAS appears to overestimate u_* when u_* is less than 0.2 m s^-1 and to underestimate u_* at high wind speeds. This implies that the DBSAS measurements of theinner scale length of turbulence, l₀, a direct measure for the dissipation rate of kinetic turbulent energy, are biased. Possible causes for these results are discussedin detail. A correction procedure is presented to account for effects of random noise and of so-called inactive turbulence or sensor vibrations. The errors in u_* cause errors in the DBSAS measurements of the structure parameter of temperature C_T ². The derived H appears to be less sensitive to errors in l₀ and C_T ², because errors in these quantities tend to cancel out.     

Summer temperature in the eastern part of southern South America: its variability in the twentieth century and a teleconnection with Oceania

The 1907–2001 summer-to-summer surface air temperature variability in the eastern part of southern South America (SSA, partly including Patagonia) is analysed. Based on records from instruments located next to the Atlantic Ocean (36°S–55°S), we define indices for the interannual and interdecadal timescales. The main interdecadal mode reflects the late-1970s cold-to-warm climate shift in the region and a warm-to-cold transition during early 1930s. Although it has been in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index since the 1960s, they diverged in the preceding decades. The main interannual variability index exhibits high spectral power at ~3.4 years and is representative of temperature variability in a broad area in the southern half of the continent. Eleven-years running correlation coefficients between this index and December-to-February (DJF) Niño3.4 show significant decadal fluctuations, out-of-phase with the running correlation with a DJF index of the Southern Annular Mode. The main interannual variability index is associated with a barotropic wavetrain-like pattern extending over the South Pacific from Oceania to SSA. During warm (cold) summers in SSA, significant anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies tend to predominate over eastern Australia, to the north of the Ross Sea, and to the east of SSA, whereas anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation is observed over New Zealand and west of SSA. This teleconnection links warm (cold) SSA anomalies with dry (wet) summers in eastern Australia. The covariability seems to be influenced by the characteristics of tropical forcing; indeed, a disruption has been observed since late 1970s, presumably due to the PDO warm phase.     

Optimizing the Determination of Roughness Parameters for Model Urban Canopies

We present an objective optimization procedure to determine the roughness parameters for very rough boundary-layer flow over model urban canopies. For neutral stratification the mean velocity profile above a model urban canopy is described by the logarithmic law together with the set of roughness parameters of displacement height d, roughness length \(z_0\), and friction velocity \(u_*\). Traditionally, values of these roughness parameters are obtained by fitting the logarithmic law through (all) the data points comprising the velocity profile. The new procedure generates unique velocity profiles from subsets or combinations of the data points of the original velocity profile, after which all possible profiles are examined. Each of the generated profiles is fitted to the logarithmic law for a sequence of values of d, with the representative value of d obtained from the minima of the summed least-squares errors for all the generated profiles. The representative values of \(z_0\) and \(u_*\) are identified by the peak in the bivariate histogram of \(z_0\) and \(u_*\). The methodology has been verified against laboratory datasets of flow above model urban canopies.     

Notes of Numerical Simulation of Summer Rainfall in China with a Regional Climate Model REMO

Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by "perfect" boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences: heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies.     

基于Parsivel天气现象仪资料的郑州“7·20”罕见特大暴雨微物理特征分析

基于2016-2018年ECMWF模式温度预报和浙江省72个国家基本站观测资料,根据温度日变化特征,采用K-近邻(KNN)回归算法进行误差订正,改进浙江省172 h精细化温度预报。在KNN回归算法中,将模式起报时刻的温度视作“背景”,由模式预报减去起报时刻温度消除“背景”影响,得到温度日变化曲线,通过温度日变化曲线构建差异指标,选取历史相似个例。根据历史相似个例的误差特征,对温度预报进行订正,得到改进的温度预报。检验结果表明,KNN方案的温度预报平均绝对误差较ECMWF和30 d滑动平均误差订正方案(OCF)的分别减小26.2%和5.2%;日最高和最低温度预报误差绝对值小于2℃,准确率较ECMWF的分别提高14.8%和4.3%,较OCF的分别提高3.0%和1.3%。KNN方案对地形复杂地区的温度预报改进效果更为明显,对冷空气活动和夏季高温等天气过程预报改善效果也较稳定。     

Validation of synoptic circulation patterns simulated by the Canadian climate centre general circulation model for western north America: Research note

Abstract

In order to assess the ability of a GCM to simulate regional to synoptic scale atmospheric structures, a correlation‐based computer‐assisted gridded map typing procedure is used to compare daily pressure (MSL) and geopotential height fields (500 hPa) from a GCM simulation of the present climate to a decade of NMC analyses. The model is able to reproduce the entire range of synoptic circulation types. However, statistically significant differences in the seasonal frequencies and variances of the main circulation types are evident. These differences, which are most pronounced in the winter (at 500 hPa) and in spring and autumn in the MSL fields, are consistent with subtle errors in the predicted fields at the hemispheric scale. The lack of agreement between the NMC climatology and the “control” simulation precludes extension of this approach to investigation of climate change impacts in western north America, and to more meteorologically dynamic extra‐tropical regions. The map‐typing procedure is shown to be an appropriate GCM synoptic‐scale validation tool that permits direct comparison of GCM output and observed fields. As such, it has the potential to elucidate the regional‐scale impacts of global climatic change through established synoptic circulation environment relationships.