1988～1998年北半球积雪时空变化特征分析

利用NOAA提供的北半球近10年(1988～1998)逐周雪盖观测资料，通过引入年或季节累积雪盖周数作为对雪量累积情况的定量衡量，对北半球雪盖变化时空特征进行了分析。结果表明:近10年来，北半球积雪年际变化的关键区位于青藏高原、蒙古高原、欧洲阿尔卑斯山脉及北美中西部，其中青藏高原是北半球积雪异常变化最强烈的区域。青藏高原和欧亚大陆其他地区积雪变化的关联表现为两种不同的时空变化型，第一种型表现为青藏高原地区和其他地区(如欧洲、俄罗斯远东地区)积雪的同位相趋势性增多；第二种型表现为青藏高原地区和中亚地区积雪变化同位相，而和蒙古高原－我国东北地区积雪变化反位相的年际振荡。     

青藏高原积雪对中国降水的影响

通过对1958-2012年JRA-55青藏高原积雪雪深资料的分析,得到青藏高原积雪雪深的年代际分布状况,得到青藏高原积雪的年代际变化特征。采用国家气候中心整理的1951-2013年中国160站月降水资料,分析青藏高原前冬期积雪变化对中国夏季降水的影响,在青藏高原前冬期积雪偏多的情况下,我国长江中游地区,东北地区都为正相关;而东北北部、河套地区南部、淮河和华南地区是负相关。我国东部地区经向呈"负-正-负-正"降水异常分布型;青藏高原前冬期积雪减少,对应长江中下游和华北北部地区夏季降水减少和华南、淮河地区夏季降水增多,我国东部地区经向呈"正-负-正-负"降水异常分布型。     

中国西部积雪类型划分

利用中国105°E以西地区189个地面气象台站1960-2004年积雪日资料和1981-2004年SMMR、SSM/Ⅰ反演的逐日雪深资料,使用积雪年际变率方法划分中国西部积雪类型,并与积雪日数方法的划分结果进行比较.在此基础上,尝试建立了结合以上两种要素的综合分类指标.利用积雪年际变率方法和台站资料,将中国西部积雪划分为3类.其中,稳定积雪区主要包括北疆、天山和青藏高原东部高海拔山区;年周期性不稳定积雪区包括南疆和东疆盆地周边、河西走廊、青海北部、青藏高原中西部、藏南谷地以及青藏高原东南缘;其他积雪区均为非年周期性不稳定积雪区.气候突变后,积雪日数方法划分的积雪类型变化反映出沙漠和低纬度地区积雪变幅增大,在积雪年际变率方法的结果中体现出青藏高原东部地区趋于稳定的积雪面积在增加.在没有台站记录地区,卫星遥感资料很大程度上弥补了台站观测的缺陷,使用这种资料划分积雪类型时,积雪年际变率方法比积雪日数方法的结果更符合西部积雪的分布特点,反映出积雪分布与地形的密切关系.利用综合分类指标划分西部积雪类型的结果表明,台站资料的划分结果很大程度上受积雪持续时间的影响,而在卫星遥感结果中,积雪年际变率则是影响类型划分的主要因素.     

春季青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型对东亚夏季风影响的研究进展

冬春青藏高原积雪异常是东亚夏季风的重要预测因子之一。本文系统回顾了近20年关于青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型影响东亚夏季风的相关研究,主要结论如下：（1）20世纪90年代初春季青藏高原积雪的年际变率从东西偶极型转变为全区一致型,这主要受北太平洋、热带大西洋海温异常变化的影响,也与南极涛动、北极涛动的变化密切相关;（2）春季青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型可通过影响东亚高层的副热带西风急流和低层的水汽输送,进而影响东亚夏季风降水格局变化;（3）青藏高原积雪异常可通过“高原大气河”的机制影响梅雨雨带;（4）大西洋年代际振荡可调节春季青藏高原积雪与梅雨降水关系的年代际变化,当大西洋年代际振荡为正（负）位相时,春季青藏高原积雪与梅雨的关系加强（减弱）。最后,本文对青藏高原积雪异常影响东亚季风变化的关键科学问题进行了讨论与展望。     

青藏高原积雪日数与高原季风的关系

利用青藏高原50个气象台站1960-2004年的积雪日数、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、青藏高原地面加热场强度距平指数和高原季风指数资料,采用EOF、滑动t检验以及相关分析等方法分析了近60年来青藏高原季风的变化特征和近45年来青藏高原积雪日数的变化特征以及二者之间的关系;分析了青藏高原季风与青藏高原高度场和青藏高原地面加热场之间的相关性。结果表明:当初冬(11月)青藏高原地面加热场强度强时,隆冬(12月~1月)的青藏高原冬季风弱,次年春季(4~6月)的青藏高原地面加热场强度弱;当青藏高原夏季风强(弱)时,有利于唐古拉山地区积雪日数的增加(减少),班戈地区和青海东北部积雪日数的减少(增加);当青藏高原冬季风强(弱)时,有利于青海北部和西藏南部积雪日数的减少(增加),喜马拉雅山和唐古拉山积雪日数的增加(减少)。     

四川盆地区域性浓雾序列及其年际和年代际变化

利用四川盆地20个国家级基本气象站1954-2005年的大雾和能见度等资料, 探讨了区域性浓雾的认定标准, 建立起该地区较完整的区域性浓雾日数序列, 分析了其年际、年代际变化及可能原因.结果表明:①盆地内区域性浓雾主要发生在秋冬季 (9月至次年2月), 占总数的92.8%, 这也就决定了浓雾日数序列是一个跨年度统计的序列; ②1954-1976年盆地内浓雾处于偏少的负位相, 尤以20世纪60年代为最少, 相反, 20世纪80-90年代浓雾频次高、强度大, 处于多雾的正位相, 但是近些年有明显的减弱; ③在浓雾的年际和年代际变化中, 大气中凝结核的数量 (背景大气浑浊度) 起着主导作用, 同时, 干湿状况是决定浓雾年代际变化另一主要原因, 局地气候变暖对浓雾的影响具有不确定性; ④90年代以后盆地内浓雾的减弱是3个因子共同作用的结果.     

青藏高原积雪的分布特征及其对地面反照率的影响

通过对１９８３年７月至１９９０年６月青藏高原主体５８个格点积雪资料进行ＥＯＦ分析发现，青藏高原主体积雪分布以西部兴都库什山脉。天山山脉以及南部喜马拉雅山脉为主；高原中部唐古拉山脉、北部昆仑山脉和东部巴颜喀拉山脉的积雪相对较少，青藏高原西部、南部的积雪变化与中部、北部和东部的积雪变化趋势存在反位相关系。另外，本文还对积雪对高原地面反照率的影响作了简单分析。     

青藏高原冬季积雪年代际变化及对中国夏季降水的影响

通过对1961-2006年青藏高原原始测站资料的筛选、剔除和插补等处理,得到了一套具有51站连续的、长序列的积雪观测资料。利用国家气候中心整理的1951-2006年中国160站月降水和月平均气温资料,分析了青藏高原冬、春季积雪年代际变化特征与中国夏季降水和气温的关系,并研究了全球变暖影响下青藏高原积雪对中国大陆对流层温...     

青藏高原冬季积雪关键区视热源特征与中国西南春旱的联系

利用1955-2010年地面气象站积雪深度、降水资料和NCEP再分析资料,采用统计相关,异常指数与相关矢等计算方法,对2010年西南春旱区域性特征、青藏高原积雪视热源特征进行了综合分析,研究了西南春旱典型区域,获得了影响西南地区春季降水的青藏高原积雪视热源关键区。对高原积雪关键区积雪深度与该区域大气视热源的相关性进行了综合分析,发现青藏高原积雪关键区2月的视热源代表性最好。重点分析了青藏高原积雪关键区2月大气视热源与后期西南严重春旱区降水的异常指数年际变化及其相关关系,结果表明,冬季青藏高原积雪关键区积雪浅、整层大气视热源偏高,有利于西南地区春季出现干燥的偏北气流,导致我国西南地区春雨异常偏少。青藏高原积雪关键区视热源对我国西南春旱预测具有明显的指示意义。     

中国近50a积雪变化时空特征

利用1961～2012年中国1400个站点逐日积雪增量、积雪日数和气温稳定通过0℃日数资料,对我国积雪时空变化特征进行了分析研究。结果表明：我国积雪主要分布在新疆北部地区、东北和内蒙古东北部地区及青藏高原地区,年积雪增量均超过50era;在年代际变化中,1991～2000年我国大部分地区积雪增量偏少;在对我国5个区域的趋势分析中,新疆北部地区、东北和内蒙古东北部地区积雪量有显著增加趋势,积雪日数的变化趋势均不显著,气温稳定通过0oC日数均呈显著减少。     

青藏高原冬春雪深分布与中国夏季降水的关系

利用SSMR和SSM／I卫星遥感雪深反演资料,通过与高原测站雪深观测资料的对比分析,揭示了高原雪深的时空分布特征,在此基础上对积雪异常年中国夏季降水异常和大气环流进行了对比分析。结果表明,卫星遥感雪深资料可较真实反映出高原积雪的状况,并可反映出高原西部积雪的变化;高原冬、春季积雪EOF分解第1模态具有相同的空间分布,反映了高原冬、春季积雪分布具有相当的一致性,而春季积雪的第2模态则反映高原积雪的东西差异;冬、春季雪深EOF第1模态的时间序列与中国夏季降水的相关分析表明,大致以长江为界,我国东部地区呈现出南涝北旱的分布模态,春季高原东（西）部多（少）雪与东（西）部少（多）雪年的夏季,我国东部降水表现出长江以南（北）地区为大范围的降水偏多（少）。     

青藏高原冬春积雪和地表热源影响亚洲夏季风的研究进展

青藏高原冬春积雪和地表热源的气候效应是青藏高原气候动力学的两个重要内容。大量资料分析和数值试验研究均表明这两个因子对亚洲季风有一定的预测意义,本文对此做了比较系统的回顾和总结,并进一步比较了青藏高原积雪和地表热源影响东亚和南亚夏季降水的异同。结果表明,东亚夏季降水在年际和年代际尺度上均存在"三极型"和"南北反相"型的空间分布特征,高原春季地表热源在年代际和年际尺度上主要影响东亚夏季降水"三极型"模态;在年代际尺度上它是中国东部出现"南涝北旱"格局的重要原因,而高原冬季积雪的作用相反。另一方面,高原冬季积雪在年际和年代际尺度上对印度夏季风降水的预测效果均要优于高原地表热源。无论是空间分布还是时间演变特征,高原冬季积雪与春季地表热源整体上均无统计意义上的显著联系。不断完善高原地面观测网和改进模式在高原地区的模拟性能,将是进一步深入理解高原积雪和地表热源影响亚洲季风物理过程和机制的关键所在。     

Long-term snow and weather observations at Weissfluhjoch and its relation to other high-altitude observatories in the Alps

Snow and weather observations at Weissfluhjoch were initiated in 1936, when a research team set a snow stake and started digging snow pits on a plateau located at 2,540?m asl above Davos, Switzerland. This was the beginning of what is now the longest series of daily snow depth, new snow height and bi-monthly snow water equivalent measurements from a high-altitude research station. Our investigations reveal that the snow depth at Weissfluhjoch with regard to the evolution and inter-annual variability represents a good proxy for the entire Swiss Alps. In order to set the snow and weather observations from Weissfluhjoch in a broader context, this paper also shows some comparisons with measurements from five other high-altitude observatories in the European Alps. The results show a surprisingly uniform warming of 0.8°C during the last three decades at the six investigated mountain stations. The long-term snow measurements reveal no change in mid-winter, but decreasing trends (especially since the 1980s) for the solid precipitation ratio, snow fall, snow water equivalent and snow depth during the melt season due to a strong temperature increase of 2.5°C in the spring and summer months of the last three decades.     

Impact of the snow cover scheme on snow distribution and energy budget modeling over the Tibetan Plateau

This paper presents the impact of two snow cover schemes (NY07 and SL12) in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) on the snow distribution and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau. The simulated snow cover fraction (SCF), snow depth, and snow cover days were evaluated against in situ snow depth observations and a satellite-based snow cover product and snow depth dataset. The results show that the SL12 scheme, which considers snow accumulation and snowmelt processes separately, has a higher overall accuracy (81.8%) than the NY07 (75.8%). The newer scheme performs better in the prediction of overall accuracy compared with the NY07; however, SL12 yields a 15.1% underestimation rate while NY07 overestimated the SCF with a 15.2% overestimation rate. Both two schemes capture the distribution of the maximum snow depth well but show large positive biases in the average value through all periods (3.37, 3.15, and 1.48 cm for NY07; 3.91, 3.52, and 1.17 cm for SL12) and overestimate snow cover days compared with the satellite-based product and in situ observations. Higher altitudes show larger root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) in the simulations of snow depth and snow cover days during the snow-free period. Moreover, the surface energy flux estimations from the SL12 scheme are generally superior to the simulation from NY07 when evaluated against ground-based observations, in particular for net radiation and sensible heat flux. This study has great implications for further improvement of the subgrid-scale snow variations over the Tibetan Plateau.     

Snow Cover Variation in the Past 45 Years (1959-2003) in the Tianshan Mountains, China

 Meteorological data at 17 weather stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2003 were analyzed to explore the variations in temperature and snow cover. The abrupt change test for snow depth was performed using Mann-Kendall statistic. The spatial distribution of maximum snow depth was calculated by employing GIDS interpolation and DEM data. The results show that mean temperature in winter had a rising trend at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10 a. The minimum temperature in winter increased more evidently at a rate of 0.79 ℃/10 a. The maximum snow depth has obviously deepened at a rate of 1.15 cm/10 a in the past 45 years, and it was about 16% higher than the average during 1991-2003. The Mann-Kendall statistic test of snow depth indicates that the abrupt change occurred in 1976. The maximum increment for snow cover depth occurred in Zhaoshu (Kunes) (39.3%) and Nilka (39.7%) in the west Tianshan Mountains. In contrast, the snow cover depth reduced by 17% in Barkol in the east Tianshan Mountains. There was a primary change periodicity of about 2.8 years in snow cover. In addition, snow cover days with a depth more than 10 cm increased distinctly, however, there was no obvious advance or delay in snow beginning and ending dates.     

中国天山积雪对气候变化响应的多通径分析

基于天山山区1961-2013年60个气象站点实测气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数和积雪深度等气候资料,结合时间序列分析、空间分析以及通径分析等方法,全面精确地获取了天山山区气候变化特征以及气候变化对积雪的通径影响。结果表明：天山山区气候变化显著,主要表现为整体增暖、局部变湿与黯化;气候变暖导致天山山区固态降水（降雪）保证率明显降低,尤其是低海拔区域。各气象要素对积雪不仅存在直接的单因素影响而且各气象要素之间还存在间接的相互交叉、相互联结的多因素影响。单因素影响通径分别为气温、降水和日照时数对积雪深度的3条直接影响通径;多因素影响通径分别为气温、降水和日照时数通过相互之间的内在关系对积雪深度产生的6条间接影响通径。最终结果表明气温是积雪变化的主要影响因素,其影响效应远远大于降水和日照时数的影响。     

1959-2003年中国天山积雪的变化

Mcteorological data at 17 weather stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2003 were analyzed to explore the variations in temperature and snow cover.The abrupt change test for snow depth was performed using Mann-Kendall statistic.The spatial distribution of maximum snow depth was calculated by employing GIDS interpolation and DEM data.The results show that mean temperature in winter had a rising trend at a rate of 0.44℃/10a.The minimum temperature in winter increased more evidently at a rate of 0.79℃/10a.The maximum snow depth has obviously deepened at a rate of 1.15 cm/10 a in the past 45 years,and it was about 16% higher than the average during 1991-2003.The Mann-Kendall statistic test of snow depth indicates that the abrupt change occurred in 1976.The maximum increment for snow cover depth occurred in Zhaoshu(Kunes)(39.3%)and Nilka(39.7%)in the west Tiansban Mountains.In contrast,the snow cover depth reduced by 17% in Barkol in the east Tianshan Mountains.There was a primary change periodicity of about 2.8 years in snow cover.In addition,snow cover days with a depth more than 10 cm increased distinctly,however,there was no obvious advance or delay in snow beginning and ending dates.     

The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate

Global climate models predict that terrestrial northern high-latitude snow conditions will change substantially over the twenty-first century. Results from a Community Climate System Model simulation of twentieth and twenty-first (SRES A1B scenario) century climate show increased winter snowfall (+10–40%), altered maximum snow depth (?5 ± 6 cm), and a shortened snow-season (?14 ± 7 days in spring, +20 ± 9 days in autumn). By conducting a series of prescribed snow experiments with the Community Land Model, we isolate how trends in snowfall, snow depth, and snow-season length affect soil temperature trends. Increasing snowfall, by countering the snowpack-shallowing influence of warmer winters and shorter snow seasons, is effectively a soil warming agent, accounting for 10–30% of total soil warming at 1 m depth and ~16% of the simulated twenty-first century decline in near-surface permafrost extent. A shortening snow season enhances soil warming due to increased solar absorption whereas a shallowing snowpack mitigates soil warming due to weaker winter insulation from cold atmospheric air. Snowpack deepening has comparatively less impact due to saturation of snow insulative capacity at deeper snow depths. Snow depth and snow-season length trends tend to be positively related, but their effects on soil temperature are opposing. Consequently, on the century timescale the net change in snow state can either amplify or mitigate soil warming. Snow state changes explain less than 25% of total soil temperature change by 2100. However, for the latter half of twentieth century, snow state variations account for as much as 50–100% of total soil temperature variations.     

1959-2003年中国天山积雪的变化

利用天山山区17个气象站1959-2003年的气象观测资料,分析了中国天山山区冬季（12-2月）气温、积雪变化趋势特征, 并采用Mann-Kendall统计量对最大积雪深度的变化进行了突变检验,通过GIDS插值方法和DEM数据计算了它的空间分布。结果表明,天山山区冬季平均气温存在明显的上升趋势,倾向率为0.44℃/10 a,与北半球冬季平均气温的变化有着较好的相关性,最低气温的增加更为明显,其倾向率为0.79℃/10 a。45 a来天山山区最大积雪深度具有明显的增加趋势,倾向率为1.15 cm/10 a,检测表明,最大积雪深度在1977年前后发生了突变;与多年平均相比,积雪深度增加幅度最大的是西天山地区的昭苏、尼勒克,分别增加了39.3%和39.7%。天山山区积雪变化以2.8 a左右的周期为主。另外,积雪日数的增加主要出现在≥10 cm的积雪深度上;积雪初、终日期并没有表现出明显的提前或推迟。     

An empirical formula to compute snow cover fraction in GCMs

There exists great uncertainty in parameterizing snow cover fraction in most general circulation models (GCMs) using various empirical formulae, which has great influence on the performance of GCMs. This work reviews the commonly used relationships between region-averaged snow depth (or snow water equivalent) and snow cover extent (or fraction) and suggests a new empirical formula to compute snow cover fraction, which only depends on the domain-averaged snow depth, for GCMs with different horizontal resolution. The new empirical formula is deduced based on the 10-yr (1978-1987) 0.5°× 0.5° weekly snow depth data of the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) driven from the Nimbus-7 Satellite. Its validation to estimate snow cover for various GCM resolutions was tested using the climatology of NOAA satellite-observed snow cover.