修正的质量通量积云对流方案及其模拟试验研究Ⅰ:方案介绍及对1991年洪涝过程的模拟

文中在综合比较各类积云对流参数化方案优缺点的基础上 ,主要参考陈伯民等修正的ECMWF质量通量积云参数化方案 ,对其进行简化和修改 ,发展了一个质量通量积云对流参数化方案 ,文中表示为 MFS(Mass Flux Scheme)。MFS是一种综合型的方案 ,既考虑了大尺度水汽辐合的重要性 ,又考虑了积云中的上升运动、下沉运动、环境中的补偿下沉运动 ,以及卷入、卷出和蒸发等 ,用总体云模式来描述积云与环境的相互作用 ,同时考虑了深对流和浅对流。将 MFS植入 NCAR区域气候模式 Reg CM2中 ,对 1 991年 5～ 7月江淮地区特大降水过程的夏季风气候特征和变化进行了模拟 ,并与 NCAR Reg CM2选用 Kuo方案 ,在同样初、边值条件和其它物理过程选择下的模拟结果进行了对比分析。分析结果表明 ,植入 MFS后的模式能够模拟这次极端的降水气候事件。在某些方面 ,如地表气温 ,降水的模拟上 ,植入 MFS后的模式的模拟结果要比原模式的结果更合理     

WRF模式中不同积云对流参数化方案对比试验

本文主要对基于WRF模式的快速同化系统（RUC）中使用的积云对流参数化方案进行简单介绍,并对不同积云对流参数化方案进行了典型个例降水预报的对比试验和检验。结果表明,总体预报效果以KF和GD方案较好,具体表现在雨区分布及大暴雨中心强度,对流降水对总降水贡献,在中低层流场高低值系统分布,以及冷空气活动引起的变温正负中心强度及位置,KF和GD方案模拟结果可以较好地反映观测实况,TS评分结果也表明KF和GD方案在小级别降水预报中占有优势。     

WRF模式中不同积云对流参数化方案对比试验

本文主要对基于WRF模式的快速同化系统 (RUC) 中使用的积云对流参数化方案进行简单介绍, 并对不同积云对流参数化方案进行了典型个例降水预报的对比试验和检验。结果表明, 总体预报效果以KF和GD方案较好, 具体表现在雨区分布及大暴雨中心强度, 对流降水对总降水贡献, 在中低层流场高低值系统分布, 以及冷空气活动引起的变温正负中心强度及位置, KF和GD方案模拟结果可以较好地反映观测实况, TS评分结果也表明KF和GD方案在小级别降水预报中占有优势。      

积云参数化方案中云底质量通量的限制及在高分辨率模式中的应用

对SAS积云参数化方案中的云底质量通量进行限制并将其应用到华南区域高分辨率模式降水预报中,分别对强对流个例和弱对流个例进行模拟和比较,分析了限制云底质量通量之后的积云参数化方案对模式降水预报的影响,并探讨了不同大小的云底质量通量限制对预报结果的敏感性。试验结果表明,对积云参数化方案进行闭合时采用不稳定能量释放假设要比原来的准平衡闭合假设更适用于中小尺度模式。对积云参数化方案的云底质量通量进行限制以后可以有效地消除对流参数化在高分辨率模式中引起的虚假降水,同时又能够合理地引入一些次网格尺度的弱对流的影响,从而改进模式的降水预报效果。敏感性试验结果表明,随着云底质量通量限制程度的变弱,对流参数化方案对模式降水预报的影响会逐渐增强;在一定大小范围内的云底质量通量限制下,强对流个例的总降水量预报结果对于不同大小的限制不如弱对流个例敏感。对两种不同的云底质量通量限制方式进行比较发现,在云底质量通量较大时完全关闭对流参数化方案可以更有效避免对流参数化引起的虚假降水。      

一种改进的质量通量积云参数化方案及预报试验

用国家气象中心有限区域业务预报模式,以１９９８年８月一次热带风暴降水过程为试验个例,对引入了下曳气流的质量通量积云对流参数方案和模式中的原质量通量积云参数化方案进行了对比试验。结果显示;引入了下曳气流后,通过提高对流降水量使降雨强度预报得以提高,更接近于实况;改进后的方案对大雨以上预报水平有一定的改善,各项评分结果均有所提高。     

公里尺度分辨率WRF模拟梅雨暴雨对积云对流参数化的敏感性试验研究

本文利用中尺度模式WRF V4.0.2(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,Version 4.0.2)对浙江省两次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行数值模拟,分别选用WSM6和Thompson云微物理方案、YSU和MYJ边界层方案、以及11种对流参数化方案进行试验,探究不同积云对流参数化方案对梅雨锋暴雨的1 km高分辨率预报的影响,结果表明：（1）在对各试验的降水预报评估过程中,使用传统点对点方法和邻域法都能客观表现出各试验的预报水平,而邻域检验法能更客观地评估模式对小范围强降水的预报水平。（2）三类积云对流方案（包括：无积云对流方案、传统积云对流方案和尺度自适应积云对流方案）都能较好地模拟出小雨降水的发生情况,但随着降水强度增强至暴雨、大暴雨量级时,尺度自适应的积云对流方案对降水的预报结果有明显改善。（3）在不同微物理和边界层组合方案下,尺度自适应积云对流方案的模拟结果差异更显著,而传统积云对流方案的模拟结果的效果差异不明显。（4）在1～10 km的“灰色区域”范围内,当网格分辨率逐渐提高到1 km时,尺度自适应积云对流方案较传统积云对流方案对模式的预报结...     

积云对流和云物理过程调整对气候模拟的影响

本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 (LASG/IAP) 的大气环流谱模式SAMIL, 结合观测与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告 (IPCC AR4) 大气模式集合平均结果, 以大气辐射通量为例, 诊断分析了物理过程调整前后模式对气候模拟的影响。旧版本SAMIL对大气辐射通量的模拟存在较大偏差, 经过大气辐射过程、 积云对流和诊断云等物理过程的调整后, 新版本SAMIL模拟的全球辐射通量的年平均结果与观测的偏差大幅减小, 其中大气顶能量收支的年变化及其平均值与观测更为接近。在积云对流方案调整基础上, 通过对诊断云物理方案的进一步调整, 新版本SAMIL对云物理量模拟更为合理, 在赤道辐合带等区域, 在很大程度上克服了单一积云对流物理过程调整引起的云宏观和微观属性不匹配问题, 能模拟出夏季气候平均辐射通量的全球分布特征, 尤其在东亚区域有较好的模拟能力。研究还表明, 在热带和副热带对流活跃区域, 当前SAMIL中积云对流过程偏差对辐射通量的模拟偏差有很大影响, 而模式中较为简单的诊断云方案也会将云宏观物理量模拟偏差带入云微观量模拟中, 也是主要偏差源之一。本文结果表明, 要继续提高SAMIL的模拟性能, 急需更新云物理参数化方案以改进云辐射过程的模拟, 同时也需要有针对性的研究积云对流和云物理过程之间相互作用, 并作进一步协同调整。     

暴雨模拟中积云对流参数化方案的对比试验

利用WRF中尺度数值预报模式,选用七种微物理方案及网格嵌套技术分别与Kain-Fritsch(new Eta)、Betts-Miller-Janjic、Grell-Devenyi（简称KF、BMJ、GD方案）三种积云对流参数方案匹配,对2007年6月1—2日湖南南部的暴雨过程进行了模拟试验。模拟结果表明：选用Lin等微物理方案和三种积云方案,采用20 km的格点分辨率,基本上可以模拟这场暴雨的范围,且采用网格嵌套技术的模拟结果优于未采用嵌套的模拟结果;其中KF方案模拟的强降水位置、强度与实况比较接近;BMJ方案模拟的强降水范围偏大、强度偏强,位置偏南,上述两种方案都不同程度地存在着虚假的暴雨中心;GD方案模拟的强降水范围、强度均偏小。     

不同积云对流参数化方案对中国东部降水模拟的对比分析

本文将目前国际上气候模式中应用比较广泛的三种积云对流参数化方案引入到P-σRCM9区域气候模式中,并考察了不同积云对流参数化方案对P-σRCM9区域气候模式模拟中国降水性能的影响.分析发现四种积云对流参数化方案(包括原方案)下模拟的积云对流加热率基本上都呈现出单峰特征,且加热峰值出现在对流层中低层.并发现积云对流参数化方案对冬季降水平均场和年际变率模拟的影响较小,而对夏季降水模拟的影响更加重要.同时注意到Kuo方案和Anthes-Kuo方案模拟的冬、夏季降水平均场和年际变率均较其他两个方案更接近观测.     

RIEMS中积云对流参数化方案对我国降水的影响

利用区域环境集成系统模式RIEMS选择Kuo-anthes(KA)和Grell(GCC)积云对流参数化方案,进行1991年5～8月敏感性试验,重点考察了区域环境集成系统模式中两种积云对流参数化方案对1991年江淮流域持续性暴雨的模拟能力.结果表明:1)对于200 hPa西风急流的位置和强度来说,采用GCC积云对流参数化方案较采用KA对流参数化方案,RIEMS模式模拟的结果更加接近观测;2)不管模式采用哪种参数化方案,RIEMS模式都能模拟出850 hPa上的水汽输送和流场,但模式模拟的水汽输送都比观测强;3)不管是采用GCC方案还是KA方案RIEMS模式基本上能够模拟出平均气温的空间分布,但对于长江以南地区,模式模拟的温度较观测偏低,对长江以北地区模式模拟的温度偏高.而采用GCC方案模式模拟的温度更加接近观测,并且对大部分地区温度偏差在-1.65～1.5℃;4)对于降水来说,采用GCC方案模式能够较好地模拟降水的空间分布特征以及雨带季节性移动,但模拟的雨带较观测的偏北,大约为1～2纬度.尽管GCC积云对流参数化方案在RIEMS模式中模拟中国地区降水更加接近观测,但由于积云对流参数化在不同水平分辨率下影响模式模拟的效果,因此对利用RIEMS模式进行数值模拟应考虑不同水平分辨下积云对流参数化方案的适用范围.     

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PARTⅡ:CUMULUS CONVECTION ACTIVITIES SIMULATED FROM THREE SCHEMES AND SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS BY USE OF MASS FLUX SCHEME*

By comparison of simulated cumulus convection processes in RegCM2,using the Kuo scheme,the Grell scheme and the mass flux scheme (MFS),it is found that the MFS can simulate the cumulus heating and moistening very well.A series of sensitivity tests show that the parameters for specifying the conversion coefficient from cloud droplets to raindrops,the turbulent entrainment and detrainment rates in updrafts anddowndrafts,and the intensity of the downdrafts have different degrees of influence upon the cumulus convection.Therefore.it is quite important for cumulus parameterization scheme to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART II:CUMULUS CONVECTION ACTIVITIES SIMULATED FROM THREE SCHEMES AND SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS BY USE OF MASS FLUX SCHEME

By comparison of simulated cumulus convection processes in RegCM2,using the Kuo scheme,the Grell scheme and the mass flux scheme (MFS),it is found that the MFS can simulate thecumulus heating and moistening very well.A series of sensitivity tests show that the parametersfor specifying the conversion coefficient from cloud droplets to raindrops,the turbulententrainment and detrainment rates in updrafts anddowndrafts,and the intensity of thedowndraftshave different degrees of influence upon the cumulus convection.Therefore.it is quite importantfor cumulus parameterization scheme to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT*

Based on the existing cumulus convective parameterization schemes,a mass flux scheme (MFS) for cumulus convective parameterization has been successfully developed by reference to the work of Chen et al. (1996).The MFS is a comprehensive scheme.In MFS,not only the importance of the large-scale moisture convergence is taken into account,but also it includes the cumulus updrafts and downdrafts,cumulus-induced subsidence in the environmental air.entrainment,detrainment and evaporation.The interaction between the cumulus and the environment is described by using a one-dimensional bulk model.At the same time the scheme includes the penetrative and shallow convections.The MFS has been successfully incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM2 developed by NCAR.The new model has been applied to simulate summer monsoon characteristics and their variations of heavy rainfall process in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basins for three months from May to July 1991.The results show that the new model can successfully simulate this rainfall prolonged process.By comparising the model outputs of RegCM2.using the Kuo scheme and the MFS.it is found that the MFS is better in simulating the surface temperature,rainfall position and amount,and rainfall duration.     

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT

Based on the existing cumulus convective parameterization schemes,a mass flux scheme(MFS)for cumulus convective parameterization has been successfully developed by reference to thework of Chen et al.(1996).The MFS is a comprehensive scheme.In MFS,not only theimportance of the large-scale moisture convergence is taken into account,but also it includes thecumulus updrafts and downdrafts,cumulus-induced subsidence in the environmental air.entrainment,detrainment and evaporation.The interaction between the cumulus and theenvironment is described by using a one-dimensional bulk model.At the same time the schemeincludes the penetrative and shallow convections.The MFS has been successfully incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM2developed by NCAR.The new model has been applied to simulate summer monsoon characteristicsand their variations of heavy rainfall process in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basins for threemonths from May to July 1991.The results show that the new model can successfully simulate thisrainfall prolonged process.By comparising the model outputs of RegCM2.using the Kuo schemeand the MFS.it is found that the MFS is better in simulating the surface temperature,rainfallposition and amount,and rainfall duration.     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

下曳气流在积云对流中的作用

利用国家气象中心高分辨率有限区域业务预报模式（ＨＬＡＦＳ）对有无下曳气流的积云参数化方案进行了对比试验,通过对积云内容各物理量及大尺度物理量场的诊断分析研究下曳气流对积云对流发生发展的作用以及对大尺度热力,动力场的影响。结果表明：（１）下曳气流具有湿冷的特征,主要出现在强对流时段时流层中下层;（２）下曳气流的引入,促进了模式中强积云对流的发生发展,并在更高更多的空间层次上更强地加热及干化环境大气,     

Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model

Abstract

A simplified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in GCMs, is presented. This parameterization is based on a plume ensemble concept similar to that originally proposed by Arakawa and Schubert (1974). However, it employs three assumptions which significantly simplify the formulation and implementation of the scheme. It is assumed that an ensemble of convective‐scale updrafts with associated saturated downdrafts may exist when the atmosphere is locally conditionally unstable in the lower troposphere. However, the updraft ensemble is comprised only of those plumes which are sufficiently buoyant to penetrate through this unstable layer. It is assumed that all such plumes have the same upward mass flux at the base of the convective layer. The third assumption is that moist convection, which occurs only when there is convective available potential energy (CAPE) for reversible ascent of an undiluted parcel from the sub‐cloud layer, acts to remove CAPE at an exponential rate with a specified adjustment time scale.

The performance of the scheme and its sensitivity to choices of disposable parameters is illustrated by presenting results from a series of idealized single‐column model tests. These tests demonstrate that the scheme permits establishment of a quasi‐equilibrium between large‐scale forcing and convective response. However, it is also shown that the strength of convective downdrafts is an important factor in determining the nature of the equilibrium state. Relatively strong down‐drafts give rise to an unsteady irregularly fluctuating state characterized by alternate periods of deep and shallow convection.

The effect of using the scheme for GCM climate simulations is illustrated by presenting selected results of a multi‐year simulation carried out with the Canadian Climate Centre GCM using the new parameterization (the CONV simulation). Comparison of these results with those for a climate simulation made with the standard model (the CONTROL simulation, as documented by McFarlane et al., 1992) reveals the importance of other parameterized processes in determining the ultimate effect of introducing the new convective scheme. The radiative response to changes in the cloudiness regime is particularly important in this regard.     

对流凝结加热对华北夏季锋面影响的数值模拟研究

本文利用改进的ＭＭ２模式，用干、湿过程模拟了一次夏季华北锋面结构。干模式仅能模拟出大尺度特征和明显偏弱的锋面环流，而湿模式可模拟出某些重要的中尺度流场特征。表明只要具有合理的模式物理过程，使用大尺度资料，也可以在一定程度上模拟出中尺度系统。对流参数化的试验表明，系统演变和降水预报对湿润因子ｂ和增温廓线很敏感。在此工作基础上，设计了考虑下沉气流的积云参数化方案。初步结果表明，这种方案使降水量预报有改进。