基于Google地图的新一代天气雷达产品在气象服务中的应用

根据等效地球代替地球半径近似定位来计算指定雷达仰角及经纬度上空所通过雷达波束的方位角、及波束长度以及波束所处位置的海拔高度,使得指定经纬度上空的雷达回波的实时获取更加方便可靠、可信,从而有效迅速地将雷达回波由极坐标方式转换为麦卡托方式,并在卫星地图上显示。雷达产品和卫星地图叠加后,增强了雷达产品的可视化效果,更方便于灾情定位、灾情调查、人影作业等。     

新一代天气雷达业务化系统地图设计及模式应用

天气雷达回波需要与地理信息融合应用，以定位雷达回波，指导气象服务。本文针对新一代天气雷达业务化系统（ROSE）产品显示子系统，设计了全新的开放地图格式，采用全国一份地图数据文件，各地雷达站点动态匹配的方式, 改进了现有雷达业务系统中主用户处理系统（PUP)需要各个站点分别申请定制地图的不便。ROSE产品显示子系统支持多种型号业务雷达数据在不同地球投影方式下的地图自适配显示。地图应用子模块程序设计中引入设计模式，有效解决了精细化地图数据的显示效率问题，实现了显示信息与速度的平衡。     

网上雷达回波经纬度定位系统的设计与建立

基于气象业务的需要,开发了网上雷达回波经纬度定位系统。该系统能够依托于网上雷达图像进行回波的定位,包括回波高度,回波相对雷达站的距离、方位角,相对炮点的距离、方位角、作业时的仰角。可以为人影作业时作业时机、打炮方向及仰角提供更精确信息,减少盲目性,提高增雨(防雹)作业效率。该系统用Visual C 编程,界面友好、直观,操作方便、快捷,具有很强的实用性。     

S波段相控阵天气雷达与新一代多普勒天气雷达定量对比方法及其初步应用

受外场试验条件的限制,相控阵天气雷达在测试过程中难以与用于对比的多普勒天气雷达保持相同位置,造成不同雷达之间的观测资料无法直接对比。为了较全面地分析该情况下相控阵天气雷达的探测能力,提出了针对不同地理位置不同分辨率的雷达反射率因子匹配方法和观测资料的定量对比方法。初步使用该方法对2010年5月21日的S波段相控阵天气雷达（S-PAR）与相距54 km的南京新一代多普勒天气雷达（CINRAD/SA）观测资料进行了结构的对比及数值的分析。结果表明：（1）S-PAR的回波结构与位置均较为合理,与CINRAD/SA相比反射率因子测量偏差很小,未受地物影响的径向速度较为接近,同时单波束发射4波束同时接收的扫描方式大大节约了扫描时间;（2）S-PAR受宽波束的影响,100 km外的回波出现了明显的平滑现象,难以探测到细微结构;（3）S-PAR的灵敏度比CINRAD/SA差,100 km处的最小可测反射率因子偏高16 dBz,通过相同灵敏度的模拟后发现S-PAR较差的灵敏度是造成回波结构差异的主要原因;（4）提出的经纬度匹配方法较好地将不同位置下的雷达资料对应起来,经纬度匹配后在垂直方向的不同处理方式得到的结果存在细微差异,基于采样体积的平均方法取得的效果最佳。     

数字展宽地球同步卫星扫描云图的定位

本文将地球作为旋转椭球体,推导出地球同步卫星扫描云图的定位公式,消除了以往把地球近似为球体所带来的定位误差,提高了精度。同时还介绍了在计算机云图处理中地球同步卫星扫描云图加经纬度网格及地图的方法。     

基于SRTM数据的波束遮挡能量耗损率计算方法和效果分析

地形对波束遮挡是影响雷达观测资料质量的重要误差源之一。基于SRTM数据的雷达波束遮挡能量耗损率方法是根据雷达站地理位置及其周围一定范围内的地形信息,计算出探测目标时波束能量的耗损百分比。可以用于对雷达波束能量遮挡进行定量订正,提高雷达基数据质量控制精度。本文详细介绍了波束遮挡能量耗损率计算原理和方法,并利用晴空回波特点分析了波束遮挡对雷达回波强度的影响;提出雷达回波概率特征方法,通过建立北京CINRAD/SA雷达样本数据集,统计得到不同仰角层的概率空间分布,并与波束遮挡能量耗损率进行对比分析。结果表明:雷达波束遮挡能量耗损率与实际雷达回波资料统计的概率空间分布有很好的一致性。      

利用太阳法提高新一代天气雷达探测精度

针对一些型号新一代天气雷达普遍存在太阳法天线波束指向检测成功率低、精度差,而且没有天线波束宽度、雷达接收系统全链路回波强度测量误差检测功能等问题,采取5个方面改进措施:(1)改进算法;(2)改进数据质控方法;(3)改进天线控制方式;(4)改进太阳位置搜索方式;(5)降低天线转速并提高采集分辨率。实际测试评估表明:改进后的太阳法天线波束指向检测明显提高了天线波束指向精度,解决了太阳法天线波束指向检测可靠性差、成功率低的问题;现场太阳法天线波束宽度测量可靠性高,测量精度可以满足回波强度定标要求;雷达接收系统全链路回波强度测量误差检测功能能够发现雷达回波强度定标中无法发现与天馈参数有关的回波强度测量误差偏大问题。     

新一代天气雷达基数据的三维拼图和产品生成软件系统

本软件系统采用C++和Fortran语言开发,定位于15部左右的新-代天气雷达区域基数据拼图,在Windows XP操作系统的微机上运行.在雷达资料质量控制的基础上,完成省或区域中心的新一代天气雷达基数据组网,实时提供经纬度、海拔高度网格的回波强度资料,并生成部分产品,为中小尺度天气分析、临近预报、人工影响天气、水文等应用奠定基础.     

基于气候统计特征的雷达回波质控方法

利用北京南郊S波段雷达2011—2016年的观测资料,从雷达气候统计的角度,利用不同强度回波发生频率的统计特征及其空间分布特征,对雷达地物杂波和波束遮挡的识别与订正方法进行研究。结果表明:①利用雷达回波出现频率特征,可以很好地识别雷达近中心地物杂波和受地形高度影响的地物杂波特征;同时还可以直观地识别出雷达波束遮挡区域以及遮挡程度。北京南郊雷达地物杂波主要分布在近雷达中心和北京西部、西北部的山前地区,地物杂波主要集中在0.5°仰角和1.5°仰角层上。雷达波束遮挡主要集中在由高大建筑引起遮挡的东南方位向和由于地形引起波束遮挡的西西北方位向,波束遮挡主要集中在0.5°仰角层。②采用局部可变区域平均垂直廓线方法利用高仰角回波订正低仰角回波,能有效订正地物杂波,并保留回波的局部特征。对于波束遮挡区域的回波填补,也能够较好地保持上下层仰角回波之间的连续性,同时兼顾了回波不均性分布等特性。③基于雷达气候特征进行地物杂波识别和波束遮挡识别,无需依照先验知识,相比于传统方法能更好地反映本地雷达回波真实情况,且具有方法简单、可快速复用、本地适用性强等优点。     

窄波束C波段双偏振多普勒天气雷达及其探测能力分析

为了评估南京信息工程大学窄波束C波段双偏振多普勒天气雷达的观测性能和应用潜力,对雷达的高分辨率回波数据进行了分析,利用固定地物订正了径向定位误差,以及在线太阳信号修正了差分反射率因子(Z_(DR))偏差;通过对流降水和层状云降水回波分析,发现了共振散射效应、不同降水粒子的回波特征、非均匀波束填充(NUBF或NBF)现象、降水倾斜结构和可能存在过冷水的证据。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on