2013年11月大气环流和天气分析

2013年11月大气环流主要特征是：北半球极涡呈单极型分布,主体位于北极圈内,强度较常年同期偏强;欧亚中高纬环流经向度较小;南支槽平均位置大致位于80°E附近,同时,副热带高压较常年同期偏强,位置偏西、偏北。11月,全国平均降水量为22.5 mm,较常年同期（18.8 mm）偏多19.7%。全国平均气温为3.6℃,较常年同期（2.9℃）偏高0.7℃。月内,我国出现3次冷空气过程和6次较强降水过程。东北地区出现了两次强降雪过程,部分地区出现暴雪到大暴雪;台风海燕给华南地区带来较大风雨影响;北方冬麦区及江南大部出现明显降水,干旱缓解;由于冷空气势力弱,中东部地区雾霾天气频发,全国平均雾霾日数为4.3天,为1961年以来历史同期最多。     

2018年4月大气环流和天气分析

2018年4月大气环流的主要特征是极涡偏强且呈偶极型分布,中高纬环流呈4波型,西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年偏弱,南支槽强度较常年偏强。4月全国平均气温12.4℃,较常年同期偏高1.4℃;全国平均降水量43.6 mm,比常年同期（44.7 mm）偏少2.5%。月内我国有3次冷空气过程,其中2—7日为一次全国性强冷空气过程,造成大范围剧烈降温和雨雪天气;北方地区出现5次沙尘过程;南方地区出现3次暴雨过程,其中22—24日的暴雨过程给长江中下游地区造成严重的暴雨洪涝灾害。     

2019年1月大气环流和天气分析

2019年1月大气环流主要特征为：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,环流呈三波型,南支槽平均位置大致位于90°E附近,同时,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期位置偏西,强度偏强。本月,全国平均降水量为14.0 mm,较常年同期（13.5 mm）偏多4%,月内出现三次较强降水过程,江南和西南部分地区降水明显,全国共有35站日降水量达到极端事件标准。全国平均气温为-4.1℃,较常年同期（-5.0℃）偏高0.9℃,共出现4次冷空气过程。本月共发生2次大范围雾 霾天气过程。     

2015年10月大气环流和天气分析

2015年10月大气环流特征如下：北半球极地地区存在单极涡,极涡强度较常年同期偏强。中高纬环流为4波型,西太平洋副热带高压位置明显偏西,强度偏强。10月全国平均降水量为39.5 mm,较常年同期（35.8 mm）偏多10.3%;全国平均气温为11.0℃,较常年同期（10.3℃）偏高0.7℃。东北、华北和西北地区东部等地共计62站发生极端日降温事件。月内共有4次强降水过程,其中10月3—6日,广东中西部和广西东部出现暴雨天气过程。冷空气势力较强,共有4次主要冷空气过程影响我国。我国中东部出现3次大范围雾 霾天气。10月4日,今年第22号台风彩虹以强台风级在广东沿海登陆并造成重大影响,登陆强度追平历史纪录。     

2017年4月大气环流和天气分析

2017年4月大气环流的主要特征是极涡呈偶极型分布,强度偏弱,中高纬环流呈4波型分布,西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年偏强,南支槽强度与常年相当。4月全国平均气温为12.0℃,较常年同期偏高1.0℃;全国平均降水量为44.0 mm,较常年同期偏少2%。月内出现1次全国大范围较强冷空气过程;南方多降水天气,共出现3次区域性暴雨天气;北方出现2次扬沙天气;多省(区、市)局地遭遇风雹灾害。     

2017年12月大气环流和天气分析

2017年12月大气环流的主要特征如下：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,欧亚中高纬环流呈两槽一脊型;南支槽位于70°E 附近,较常年同期偏西,副热带高压位置偏西,不利于水汽向我国中东部地区输送。12月,全国平均降水量为5.9 mm,比常年同期（10.8 mm）偏少44.8%,我国北方大部分地区降水量较常年同期偏少4~8成。全国平均气温-2.2℃,较常年同期（-3.2℃）偏高1℃;受偏强东北低涡影响,东北地区和内蒙古中东部气温较常年同期偏低1~3℃。月内,冷空气活动频繁,但强度较弱,出现5次一般强度冷空气过程。受频繁冷空气影响,雾 霾天气较常年同期偏少,仅28—30日出现一次大范围持续性雾 霾天气。     

2017年3月大气环流和天气分析

2017年3月大气环流的主要特征是极涡偏强且呈单极型分布,中高纬环流呈4波型,西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年偏弱,南支槽强度较常年偏强。3月全国平均气温4.5℃,较常年同期偏高0.4℃;全国平均降水量36.2 mm,比常年同期（29.5 mm）偏多22.7%。月内我国东部地区有2次中等强度冷空气过程;南方地区有3次区域性暴雨天气过程;北方地区有2次沙尘天气过程;江苏、湖南等省局地遭受风雹袭击。     

2012年1月大气环流和天气分析

2012年1月大气环流及我国天气主要特征如下：北半球高纬度地区极涡呈偶极型,位于加拿大北部的中心偏强,亚洲东北部地区的中心偏弱,中高纬度地区环流呈现经向型,东亚大槽偏强,平均南支槽位于80。E附近,强度偏强。2012年1月全国平均气温为－7．2℃,较常年同期偏低1．7℃。全国平均降水量为16．8mm,较常年同期偏多3．9mm。月内出现两次中等以上强度的冷空气过程以及4次降水过程,新疆、内蒙古等地出现极端低温事件,南方出现大范围持续低温阴雨（雪）天气。     

2016年10月大气环流和天气分析

2016年10月北半球极地地区极涡呈偶极性分布,极涡强度较常年同期偏强。中高纬环流为４波型,西太平洋副热带高压位置明显偏西、偏北,强度偏强。10月全国平均降水量55.4 mm,较常年同期（35.8 mm）偏多55%,为1951年来同期最多;全国平均气温10.9℃,较常年同期（10.3℃）偏高0.6℃。月内我国主要出现了6次区域性暴雨天气过程,其中2次是台风莎莉嘉和海马导致,2次是受低涡、切变线影响。冷空气活动频繁,出现5次过程,较常年偏多。京津冀地区出现4次雾 霾天气过程。今年第21号台风莎莉嘉于10月18日在海南省万宁市以强台风级别登陆,今年第22号台风海马于10月21日在广东省汕尾市登陆,均造成重大影响。     

2014年1月大气环流和天气分析

2014年1月大气环流主要特征如下：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,位置较常年同期明显偏南;欧亚中高纬环流经向度较小;南支槽平均位置位于70°E附近,位置较常年同期明显偏西;同时,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期略偏弱。1月,全国平均降水量为6.2 mm,较常年同期（13.2 mm）偏少53.0%。全国平均气温为-3.4℃,较常年同期（-5.0℃）偏高1.6℃。月内,我国出现1次主要冷空气过程和4次主要降水过程。北方冬麦区降水偏少,气象干旱持续;中东部地区出现大范围雾或霾天气;南方地区出现低温雨雪天气     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

Information for Authors

正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography.     

Connections between the Eurasian teleconnection and concurrent variation of upper-level jets over East Asia

The variation of the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) associated with the Eurasian(EU) teleconnection pattern is investigated using 60-yr NCEP–NCAR daily reanalysis data over the period 1951–2010. The EAJS consists of three components: the polar front jet(PFJ); the plateau subtropical jet(PSJ); and the ocean subtropical jet(OSJ). Of these three jets over East Asia,the EU pattern exhibits a significant influence on the PFJ and OSJ. There is a simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ. A significant positive correlation is found between the EU pattern and the OSJ when the EU pattern leads the OSJ by about 5 days. There is no obvious correlation between the EU pattern and the PSJ. The positive EU phase is accompanied by a weakened and poleward-shifted PFJ, which coincides with an intensified OSJ. A possible mechanism for the variation of the EAJS during different EU phases is explored via analyzing the effects of 10-day high-and low-frequency eddy forcing. The zonal wind tendency due to high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ, as well as the northward/southward shift of the PFJ. High- and low-frequency eddy forcing are both responsible for the positive correlation between the EU pattern and the OSJ, but only high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the lagged variation of the OSJ relative to the EU pattern. The negative correlation between the EU pattern and winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China is maintained only when the PFJ and OSJ are out of phase with each other. Thus, the EAJS plays an important role in transmitting the EU signal to winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China.     

<p>PARTITION OF SEASON BASED ON MULTIELEMENTS AND THE DECADAL CHANGE OF SEASON DURATION IN CHINA</p>

<p>Using the multielements similarity measurement method and 1950–C2017 NCEP/NCAR gridded daily reanalysis datasets, we analyzed season duration in China during 1950–C2016, and we defined the element with maximum absolute sensitivity as the key impact element at each point using the sensitivity analysis method. The decadal change of season duration and its key impact element before and after 1980 were studied. The results indicated obvious meridional and zonal differences in the distribution of season duration for the 67-year average, and that the key impact element has the same distribution characteristics as season duration. In addition, complementary relationships were found between the durations of spring and summer, autumn and winter, and the cold and warm seasons. Of those, the complementary relationship between the durations of spring and summer was strongest and the regions of complementarity were numerous. The complementary regions of autumn and winter durations were found mainly in western China. In the cold and warm seasons, the complementary regions were widespread and the complementary relationship was generally weak. Comparison of the periods before and after 1980 revealed an east–Cwest difference in the interdecadal variation of season duration. Interdecadal variation in spring and summer was found concentrated in northern and western regions, while that in autumn and winter was concentrated in the western region. Areas of significant interdecadal variation of the key elements were found concentrated in northern and western regions, corresponding well with the areas of significant interdecadal variation of season duration.</p>     

THE INFLUENCES OF SSTA OVER KUROSHIO AND ITS EXTENSION ON RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF TWO DIFFERENT EL NIO CASES

By using the gauged rainfall in 160 stations within mainland China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the impacts of anomalous SST in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China were investigated. The results show that a difference in the meridional circulation such as the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern(EAP)may be responsible for the difference in rainfall between 1998 and 2010. In comparison with 1998, the anomalous meridional circulation pattern in 2010 shifted northeastward, and then the western subtropical high, the mid-latitudinal trough and the northeastern Asia blocking high also shifted northeastward, causing intensified convergence of the cold and warm air masses at the southern region and thus more rainfall in the southwestern region and less in the northwestern region. In 1998, the anomalous cyclone, one component of the meridional pattern, located at the Songhuajiang-Nengjiang River basin, resulted in more rainfall in the majority of the area. The results of observation and the model show that the difference in SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension under the background of different El Ni觡o events is the key point:(1) The anomalous warmth moved westward from the mid-Pacific to the east of the Philippine Sea during the central event, which led the heat resources shifting to the northeast in 2010; subsequently, a shift occurred to the north of the anomalous ascent and decent, followed by a warm SSTA in the region of Kuroshio's extension in 2010 and Kuroshio in 1998.(2) The warm SSTA in the Kuroshio extension causing the Rossby wave activity flux strengthened in 2010, and then the westerly jet shifted northward and extended eastward. A warm SSTA in Kuroshio and cold SSTA in its extension in 1998 caused the westerly jet to shift southward and weaken. As a result,the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone shifted northward in 2010, and the blocking high also shifted northward.     

Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050

Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Characterization and source apportionment of volatile organic compounds in urban and suburban Tianjin,China

Tianjin is the third largest megacity and the fastest growth area in China, and consequently faces the problems of surface ozone and haze episodes. This study measures and characterizes volatile organic compounds(VOCs), which are ozone precursors, to identify their possible sources and evaluate their contribution to ozone formation in urban and suburban Tianjin,China during the Ha Chi(Haze in China) summer campaign in 2009. A total of 107 species of ambient VOCs were detected,and the average concentrations of VOCs at urban and suburban sites were 92 and 174 ppbv, respectively. Of those, 51 species of VOCs were extracted to analyze the possible VOC sources using positive matrix factorization. The identified sources of VOCs were significantly related to vehicular activities, which specifically contributed 60% to urban and 42% to suburban VOCs loadings in Tianjin. Industrial emission was the second most prominent source of ambient VOCs in both urban and suburban areas, although the contribution of industry in the suburban area(36%) was much higher than that at the urban area(16%). We conclude that controlling vehicle emissions should be a top priority for VOC reduction, and that fast industrialization and urbanization causes air pollution to be more complex due to the combined emission of VOCs from industry and daily life, especially in suburban areas.