Stability of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation in a coupled box model

The coupled atmosphere–ocean box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation (THC) formulated by Scott et al. [Scott, J.R., Marotzke, J., Stone, P.H., 1999. Interhemispheric THC in a coupled box model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 351–365.] is solved analytically, by introducing the approximation that the time variations of salinity in the ocean are much slower than the time variations in the temperature. The analytic solution shows that there is an unstable limit cycle near the bifurcation where the flow becomes unstable, as suggested by Scott et al.'s numerical solutions. The solution also leads to an analytic expression for the conditions under which the instability discovered by Scott et al. sets in, which is more general than that found by Scott et al. In particular, it includes the effect of coupling the THC to the atmospheric meridional transports of heat and moisture. It shows that the stability of THC is much more sensitive to the representation of the atmospheric heat transport, i.e., to how it depends on the meridional temperature gradient, than it is in hemispheric models. In particular, it shows that interhemispheric ocean models that use mixed boundary conditions, or couple the ocean to a diffusive representation of the atmospheric heat transport, are less susceptible to this kind of instability than when the ocean is coupled to a representation of the atmospheric meridional heat transport which is more sensitive to the meridional temperature gradient, as is implied by observations and theory.     

Comparison of retrospective analyses of the global ocean heat content

In this study, we compare seven retrospective analyses of basin- to global-scale upper ocean temperature. The analyses span a minimum of 10 years during the 50-year period since World War II. Three of the analyses (WOA-94, WHITE, BMRC) are based on objective analysis and thus, do not rely on a numerical forecast model. The remaining four (NCEP, WAJSOWICZ, ROSATI, SODA) are based on data assimilation in which the numerical forecast is provided by some form of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Modular Ocean Model driven by historical winds. The comparison presented here is limited to heat content in the upper 250 m, information that is available for all analyses. The results are presented in three frequency bands: seasonal, interannual (periods of 1–5 years), and decadal (periods of 5–25 years). At seasonal frequencies, all of the analyses are quite similar. Otherwise, the differences among analyses are limited to the regions of the western boundary currents, and some regions in the Southern Hemisphere. At interannual frequencies, significant differences appear between the objective analyses and the data assimilation analyses. Along the equator in the Pacific, where variability is dominated by El Niño, the objective analyses have somewhat noisier fields, as well as reduced variance prior to 1980 due to lack of observations. Still, the correlation among analyses generally exceeds 80% in this region. Along the equator in the Atlantic, the correlation is lower (30–60%) although inspection of the time series shows that the same biennial progression of warm and cool events appears in all analyses since 1980. In the midlatitude Pacific agreement among objective analyses and data assimilation analyses is good. The analysis of Rosati et al. [Rosati, A., Gudgel, R., Miyakoda, K., 1995. Decadal analysis produced from an ocean assimilation system. Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 2, 206.] differs somewhat from the others apparently because in this analysis, the forecast model is weighted more heavily relative to the observations. The analysis of Levitus et al. [Levitus, S., Boyer, T.P., Antonov, J., 1994. Interannual variability of upper ocean thermal structure. World Ocean Atlas, 1994, Vol. 5. Natl. Env. Satell. Data and Int. Serv., Natl. Oceanic and Atmos. Admin. Atlas series, Washington, DC, 176 pp.] has a much different spatial distribution of variability in the interannual band than the others. Partly, this results from the yearly time-averaging of this analysis. Three of the monthly analyses extend over 20 years and thus are useful for examining decadal variations. Comparison of these analyses shows in common a slow progression of warm water westward and then eastward along the equator in the tropical Pacific that is linked to the decadal fluctuations of El Niño.     

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.     

Climate model simulation of anthropogenic influence on greenhouse-induced climate change (early agriculture to modern): the role of ocean feedbacks

We present further steps in our analysis of the early anthropogenic hypothesis (Ruddiman, Clim Change 61:261–293, 2003) that increased levels of greenhouse gases in the current interglacial, compared to lower levels in previous interglacials, were initiated by early agricultural activities, and that these increases caused a warming of climate long before the industrial era (～1750). These steps include updating observations of greenhouse gas and climate trends from earlier interglacials, reviewing recent estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture, and describing a simulation by a climate model with a dynamic ocean forced by the low levels of greenhouse gases typical of previous interglacials in order to gauge the magnitude of the climate change for an inferred (natural) low greenhouse gas level relative to a high present day level. We conduct two time slice (equilibrium) simulations using present day orbital forcing and two levels of greenhouse gas forcing: the estimated low (natural) levels of previous interglacials, and the high levels of the present (control). By comparing the former to the latter, we estimate how much colder the climate would be without the combined greenhouse gas forcing of the early agriculture era (inferred from differences between this interglacial and previous interglacials) and the industrial era (the period since ～1750). With the low greenhouse gas levels, the global average surface temperature is 2.7 K lower than present day—ranging from ～2 K lower in the tropics to 4–8 K lower in polar regions. These changes are large, and larger than those reported in a pre-industrial (～1750) simulation with this model, because the imposed low greenhouse gas levels (CH₄ = 450 ppb, CO₂ = 240 ppm) are lower than both pre-industrial (CH₄ = 760 ppb, CO₂ = 280 ppm) and modern control (CH₄ = 1,714 ppb, CO₂ = 355 ppm) values. The area of year-round snowcover is larger, as found in our previous simulations and some other modeling studies, indicating that a state of incipient glaciation would exist given the current configuration of earth’s orbit (reduced insolation in northern hemisphere summer) and the imposed low levels of greenhouse gases. We include comparisons of these snowcover maps with known locations of earlier glacial inception and with locations of twentieth century glaciers and ice caps. In two earlier studies, we used climate models consisting of atmosphere, land surface, and a shallow mixed-layer ocean (Ruddiman et al., Quat Sci Rev 25:1–10, 2005; Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008). Here, we replaced the mixed-layer ocean with a complete dynamic ocean. While the simulated climate of the atmosphere and the surface with this improved model configuration is similar to our earlier results (Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008), the added information from the full dynamical ocean is of particular interest. The global and vertically-averaged ocean temperature is 1.25 K lower, the area of sea ice is larger, and there is less upwelling in the Southern Ocean. From these results, we infer that natural ocean feedbacks could have amplified the greenhouse gas changes initiated by early agriculture and possibly account for an additional increment of CO₂ increase beyond that attributed directly to early agricultural, as proposed by Ruddiman (Rev Geophys 45:RG4001, 2007). However, a full test of the early anthropogenic hypothesis will require additional observations and simulations with models that include ocean and land carbon cycles and other refinements elaborated herein.     

RADIATION BALANCE AND TURBULENT FLUX CHARACTERISTICS OVER MIZUHO STATION IN ANTARCTICA

In this paper,by using measurements in micrometeorology and radiation balance in the surface layer(Yamanouchiet al.,1981;Wada et al.,1981;Ishikawa et al.,1982;Ohata et al.,1983),we have analyzed the diurnal and annual varia-tion characteristics of radiation balance in spring,summer,autumn and winter,and calculated the momentum flux andsensible heat flux with the aerodynamic method and profile gradient alternate method in different seasons.We have alsoobtained the diurnal variation characters of the latent heat flux from the equation for energy balance.The results fromthe calculation are compared.Finally,the relationship between the turbulent heat and momentum exchange coefficientand the diurnal variation of the Richardson number is discussed.     

冬季北太平洋海表热通量异常和海气相互作用——基于一个全球海气耦合模式长期积分的诊断分析

利用一个全球海气耦合模式长期积分所给出的资料,分析了冬季北太平洋海表湍流热通量（潜热和感热）异常及其对海表温度（SST）异常的影响,并比较了海表热通量诸分量和海洋内部的动力学过程对SST变化的相对重要性。结果表明,冬季热带外海洋上的湍流热通量是影响SST的主要因子,但在北太平洋中部海水的平流作用也不可忽视。冬季热带外海洋向大气释放的潜热和感热通量与SST倾向（而不是SST本身）之间存在着显著的相关,这同Cayan和Reynolds等利用COADS资料和NCEP资料同化模式分析的结果是一致的。模式诊断的结果支持这样一种看法：和热带海洋不同,冬季热带外海洋上的海气相互作用主要地表现为大气对海洋的强迫作用,而不是相反。模式给出的SST倾向的第一个EOF分量及其与海平面气压场的相关特征同Wallace等从观测资料分析所得到的结果是一致的;进一步的分析表明：在冬季北太平洋的大部分区域（特别是西太平洋）,大尺度大气环流异常在很大程度上决定着SST的异常,而这种决定作用正是通过它对湍流热通量的强烈影响来实现的。     

From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries

There is an urgent need for developing policy-relevant future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper is a milestone toward this aim focusing on open ocean fisheries. We develop five contrasting Oceanic System Pathways (OSPs), based on the existing five archetypal worlds of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate change research (e.g., Nakicenovic et al., 2014 and Riahi et al., 2016). First, we specify the boundaries of the oceanic social-ecological system under focus. Second, the two major driving forces of oceanic social-ecological systems are identified in each of three domains, viz., economy, management and governance. For each OSP (OSP1 “sustainability first”, OSP2 “conventional trends”, OSP3 “dislocation”, OSP4 “global elite and inequality”, OSP5 “high tech and market”), a storyline is outlined describing the evolution of the driving forces with the corresponding SSP. Finally, we compare the different pathways of oceanic social-ecological systems by projecting them in the two-dimensional spaces defined by the driving forces, in each of the economy, management and governance domains. We expect that the OSPs will serve as a common basis for future model-based scenario studies in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).     

CO2 feedbacks and the 100 K year cycle in climate

Summary In an earlier paper (Lindzen, 1986), it was shown that allowing CO₂ to vary with snow/sea ice position could lead to a greatly enhanced response in glaciation to 100 K year orbital forcing—even when 20 K year forcing was much stronger. In that model, snow/sea ice position (SSIP) and glaciation were different: the former was the forcing for the latter. However, SSIP and glaciation were not decorrelated. Observations (Berner et al., 1979; Lorius et al., 1985; Neftel et al., 1982) suggest that CO₂ may be independently related to both SSIP and glaciation. In the present paper, we allow (in a highly simplified manner) such independent dependence, and show how it alters the earlier results. Briefly, the dependence of CO₂ on glaciation can contribute to and even cause a highly enhanced response to the 100 K year component of the forcing. However, the CO₂ dependence on SSIP is, on the whole, more effective in this regard. Thus, we expect time series of CO₂ to show variation on the faster time scales than does glaciation.With 5 Figures     

Calendar effect on phase study in paleoclimate transient simulation with orbital forcing

Several studies have shown that the use of different calendars in paleoclimate simulations can cause artificial phase shifts on insolation forcing and climatic responses. However, these important calendar corrections are still often neglected. In this paper, the phase shifts at the precession band is quantitatively assessed by converting the model data of the transient GCM climate simulation of Kutzbach et al. (Clim Dyn 30:567?C579, 2008) from the ??fixed-day?? calendar to the ??fixed-angular?? calendar with a new and efficient approach. We find that insolation has a big phase shift in September?COctober?CNovember (SON) when the vernal equinox (VE) is fixed to March 21. At high latitude, the phase bias is up to 60° (about 3650?years). The insolation phase bias in SON in Southern Hemisphere (SH) is especially important because it can influence the timing of the SH summer monsoon response due to the large heat capacity of ocean. The calendar correction has minor effect (±2°) on the phase relationships between forcing and precipitation responses of the six global summer monsoons studied in Kutzbach et al. (2008). After correcting the calendar effect, especial on SH ocean temperature, the new phase wheel results are more similar for both hemispheres. The results suggest that the calendar effect should be corrected before discussing the dynamics between orbital forcing and climatic responses in phase studies of transient simulations.     

The sensitivity of sub-Saharan precipitation to Atlantic SST

The climate model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Hansen et al., 1983) is used to study the sensitivity of sub-Saharan rainfall to Atlantic Ocean SST. Initial changes of SST in the South Atlantic Ocean on March 1st are shown to reduce the June–August sub-Saharan precipitation totals using the model version with an interactive ocean that updates SST. Evidence is offered in support of theories that link Sahel drought with anomalously warm SST in the eastern South Atlantic and the study compares the model's response to spatially coherent SST anomalies with the response to random SST perturbations. The physical processes whereby SST and sea-level pressure synoptics influence the African summer monsoon are discussed in reference to the simulations. Predictibility of Sahel summer rainfall based on spring SST patterns or spring atmospheric circulation patterns is implied by the results. The SST/Sahel drought links are discussed for projections of future climate characteristics.     

DMS and SO2 at Baring Head, New Zealand: Implications for the Yield of SO2 from DMS

Atmospheric dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were measured at Baring Head, New Zealandduring February and March 2000. Anti-correlated DMS and SO₂ diurnalcycles, consistent with the photochemical production of SO₂ from DMS, were observed in clean southerly air off the ocean. The data is used to infer a yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation. The estimated yields are highly dependent on assumptions about the DMS oxidation rate. Fitting the measured data in a photochemical box model using model-generated OH levels and the Hynes et al. (1986) DMS + OH rate constant suggests that theSO₂ yield is 50–100%, similar to current estimates for the tropical Pacific.However, the observed amplitude of the DMS diurnal cycle suggests that the oxidation rate is higher than that used by the model, and therefore, that theSO₂ yield is lower in the range of 20–40%.     

Reply to comment by Ben-Zvi,A., D. Rosenfeld and A. Givati on the paper: Levin,Z., N. Halfon and P. Alpert, “Reassessment of rain experiments and operations in Israel including synoptic considerations,” Atmos. Res. 97, 513–525. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.06.011

Levin et al. (2010; hereafter LHA) (Levin, Z., Halfon, N., Alpert, P., 2010. Reassessment of rain experiments and operations in Israel including synoptic considerations. Atmos. Res. 97, 513–525. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.06.011.), reanalyzed the results of the operational seeding in northern Israel between 1975 and 2007 and the preceding Israel 2 cloud seeding experiment (1969–1975) and concluded that there is no net increase in precipitation over the target areas. Our analysis revealed that a synoptic bias during Israel 2 is one of the reasons for the apparent positive effect of seeding in the northern target area and the negative effect in the southern area both of which disappeared in the following experiment in the south (Israel 3; 1975–1995) and the operational seeding in the north.Ben-Zvi et al. (2010;hereafter BRG) criticized our paper primarily on the ground that we did not consider the positive results of Israel 1 experiment (1960–1967). It should be noted that in Israel 1 different seeding lines were used from those in both Israel 2 and the operational period. In addition, its raw data is not accessible anymore for reanalysis. Furthermore, Israel 2 had been designed as a confirmatory cross-over experiment to Israel 1 and failed to reproduce its promising results with double ratio (DR) of ~ 1.00, namely, zero rainfall enhancements. The same DR values were also found in Israel 3 and in the operational seeding. Therefore, because of the differences in the two experiments, the lack of access to the raw data and the disappointing results of the confirmatory experiment, we decided to concentrate our analysis on the more recent seeding activities.The attempt by BRG to explain the reduction of the DR to ~ 1.00 in the operational seeding period by the suppression due to pollution have been disproved by Alpert et al., 2008, Alpert et al., 2009 and also fail to explain the sharp decline of the target/control ratio right at the beginning of the operational seeding period when the lucky draw in this area came to its end (see LHA).     

Inertia and diurnal oscillations of Ekman layers in atmosphere and ocean

A 1D model, including a time variation of eddy viscosity and mixed layer depth, is applied to study Ekman spirals. It simulates a weak velocity in the atmosphere but a jet in the upper oceanic mixed layer during daytime; and a strong velocity in the atmosphere but a weak, uniform velocity in the ocean at night. The mean spirals in both atmosphere and ocean are close to the average spirals at midday and midnight, they are not flat as suggested by previous studies but consistent with the observations of Polton et al (2013). Our results also show shorter length scale for magnitude decay than for rotation of mean velocity as observed in the ocean, which comes from the combined effects of the diurnal variation of PBL and the Coriolis force. The latter becomes more important away from the surface. In the upper oceanic mixed layer, the mean velocity mainly comes from the strong jets in the late afternoon and early evening. Near and below the depth of Ekman depth, the weak velocities change with time and cancel out each other if averaged timing is longer than the inertia period. It results in diminishing of magnitude of the mean velocity, but the amplitude of individual parcel oscillating can still be quite large near the Ekman depth. Meanwhile, the change of velocity angle from the surface is near or less than 90 degree. Hence, shorter length scale for magnitude decay than for rotation of the mean velocity is not controlled by viscosity alone. Meanwhile, the model does not need two viscosities as suggested previously.The results also show that either the diurnal variation of surface stress or eddy viscosity alone can create a diurnal oscillation of velocity in the ocean. The interactions between PBL force and the Coriolis force can create a weak instability in the atmosphere and ocean at 30° and 90°. This weak instability may explain the observed nocturnal LLJ near 30 °N on the lee of the Rocky Mountains and the intensification of mesoscale circulation simulated by Sun and Wu (1992).     

Causes of the Intraseasonal SST Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Satellite observations reveal a much stronger intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the southern Indian Ocean along 5-10oS in boreal winter than in boreal summer. The cause of this seasonal dependence is studied using a 2?-layer ocean model forced by ERA-40 reanalysis products during 1987-2001. The simulated winter-summer asymmetry of the SST variability is consistent with the observed. A mixed-layer heat budget is analyzed. Mean surface westerlies along the ITCZ (5-10oS) in December-January-February (DJF) leads to an increased (decreased) evaporation in the westerly (easterly) phase of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), during which convection is also enhanced (suppressed). Thus the anomalous shortwave radiation, latent heat flux and entrainment effects are all in phase and produce strong SST signals. During June-July-August (JJA), mean easterlies prevail south of the equator. Anomalies of the shortwave radiation tend to be out of phase to those of the latent heat flux and ocean entrainment. This mutual cancellation leads to a weak SST response in boreal summer. The resultant SST tendency is further diminished by a deeper mixed layer in JJA compared to that in DJF. The strong intraseasonal SST response in boreal winter may exert a delayed feedback to the subsequent opposite phase of ISO, implying a two-way air-sea interaction scenario on the intraseasonal timescale. Citation: Li, T., F. Tam, X. Fu, et al., 2008: Causes of the intraseasonal SST variability in the tropical Indian ocean, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 18-23     

Numerical Simulation of the Regional Ocean Circulation in the Coastal Areas of Chinaal

1.IntroductionInrecentyears,manystudiesonthemechanismoftheregionalclimateformationandvariationhavebeendonebyusingnestedhigh--resolutionregionalclimatemodels.TheregionalclimatemodelshavepresentedbetterPerformancesinsimulatingregionalclimatefeaturesthanlarge--scalegeneralcirculationmodels(GCM)becauseoftheaccuraterepresentationsofhigh--resolutiontopography,detailedunderlyingsurfacecharacteristics,landsurfaceprocessesandplanetaryboundarylayerparameterization.However,theoceanpartwithinthemodeldom…     

Relationships between lightning activity and various thundercloud parameters: satellite and modelling studies

The lightning frequency model developed by Baker et al. [Baker, M.B., Christian, H.J., Latham, J., 1995. A computational study of the relationships linking lightning frequency and other thundercloud parameters, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 1525–1548] has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from a satellite, using the NASA/MSFC Optical Transient Detector (OTD)) and a variety of cloud physical parameters. Specifically, superior or more comprehensive representations were utilised of: (1) glaciation via the Hallett–Mossop (H–M) process; (2) the updraught structure of the model cloud; (3) the liquid-water-content structure of the model cloud; (4) the role of the reversal temperature T_rev in influencing lightning characteristics; (5) the critical breakdown field for lightning initiation; and (6) the electrical characteristics of the ice crystal anvil of the model cloud. Although our extended studies yielded some new insights into the problem, the basic pattern of relationships between f and the other parameters was very close to that reported by Baker et al. (1995). The more elaborate treatment of T_rev restricted somewhat the range of conditions under which reverse-polarity lightning could be produced if the cloud glaciated via H–M, but confirmed the earlier conclusion that such lightning would not occur if the glaciation was of the Fletcher type. The computations yielded preliminary support for the hypothesis that satellite measurements of f might be used to determine values of the ice-content of cumulonimbus anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. The successful launch and continuing satisfactory functioning of the OTD [Christian, H.J., Goodman, S., 1992. Global observations of lightning from space, Proc. 9th Int. Conf. on Atmospheric Electricity, St. Petersburg, pp. 316–321; Christian, H.J., Blakesee, R.J., Goodman, S.J., 1992. Lightning imaging sensor (LIS) for the earth observing system. NASA Tech. Memorandum, 4350] make it possible—with a high degree of precision—to measure lightning location, occurrence time and frequency f over extensive areas of the Earth's surface. Measured global distributions of lightning and associated lightning stroke radiance demonstrate that: lightning activity is particularly pronounced over the tropics, much greater over land than over the oceans, and exhibits great seasonal variability; lightning radiance tends to be greater over the oceans, less when lightning activity is high, and greater in the Northern Hemisphere winter than summer.     

Solar irradiance forcing of centennial climate variability during the Holocene

Centennial climate variability during the Holocene has been simulated in two 10,000 year experiments using the intermediate-complexity ECBilt model. ECBilt contains a dynamic atmosphere, a global 3-D ocean model and a thermodynamic sea-ice model. One experiment uses orbital forcing and solar irradiance forcing, which is based on the Stuiver et al. residual ¹⁴C record spliced into the Lean et al. reconstruction. The other experiment uses orbital forcing alone. A glacier model is coupled off-line to the climate model. A time scale analysis shows that the response in atmospheric parameters to the irradiance forcing can be characterised as the direct response of a system with a large thermal inertia. This is evident in parameters like surface air temperature, monsoon precipitation and glacier length, which show a stronger response for longer time scales. The oceanic response, on the other hand, is strongly modified by internal feedback processes. The solar irradiance forcing excites a (damped) mode of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic Ocean, similar to the loop-oscillator modes associated with random-noise freshwater forcing. This results in a significant peak (at time scales 200–250 year) in the THC spectrum which is absent in the reference run. The THC response diminishes the sea surface temperature response at high latitudes, while it gives rise to a signal in the sea surface salinity. A comparison of the model results with observations shows a number of encouraging similarities.     

Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the response of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change, following previous work on marine DMS modeling ( Aumont et al., 2002 ) and on the global warming impact on marine biology ( Bopp et al., 2001 ). An atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a marine biogeochemical scheme and used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (a 1% increase per year in atmospheric CO₂ until it has doubled). The predicted global distribution of DMS at  1 × CO₂  compares reasonably well with observations; however, in the high latitudes, very elevated concentrations of DMS due to spring and summer blooms of Phaeocystis can not be reproduced. At  2 × CO₂  , the model estimates a small increase of global DMS flux to the atmosphere (+2%) but with large spatial heterogeneities (from −15% to +30% for the zonal mean). Mechanisms affecting DMS fluxes are changes in (1) marine biological productivity, (2) relative abundance of phytoplankton species and (3) wind intensity. The mean DMS flux perturbation we simulate represents a small negative feedback on global warming; however, the large regional changes may significantly impact regional temperature and precipitation patterns.     

Measurements of Reaction Coefficients of NO2 and HONO on Aerosol Particles

The reaction coefficients of nitrogen dioxide and nitrous acid with monodisperse sodium chloride and ammonium sulphate aerosols have been measured in a flow reactor at atmospheric pressure. These experiments were performed at relative humidities above and below the deliquescence points of both aerosols (r.h. 50 and 85%) at 279 K. The results for NO₂ afford a reaction coefficient in the range (2.8–10) × 10^-4 and for HONO, (2.8–4.6) × 10^-3. For both species, there appears to be an enhancement of the reaction coefficient on sodium chloride aerosol at 50% r.h. The results are compared with reaction coefficients determined by other experimental methods. A good agreement is found for both gases between this method and the coated denuder method previously developed in our research laboratories (Msibi et al., 1993) and with the majority of other published data for NO₂. In the case of HONO, our estimate of reaction coefficient is smaller than, or at the lower limits of the ranges reported by other published studies.