From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries |
| |
| Institution: | 1. IRD – UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203 SETE cedex, France;2. IRD – International Laboratory ICEMASA, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa;3. School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London, UK;4. AZTI. Herrera Kaia portualdea z/g. 20110 Pasaia, Gipuzkoa, Spain;5. UMR 7159 LOCEAN, IPSL, Boîte 100, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 PARIS Cedex 05, France;6. LSCE/IPSL, CNRS/CEA/UVSQ, Orme des Merisiers, CE Saclay, 91191 Gif s/Yvette, France;7. Departement Geosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France;8. University of California, San Diego, USA;9. Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1Z4, Canada;10. ORTHONGEL, 11 Rue des Sardiniers, 29900 Concarneau, France;11. CIRED, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech,45bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne, France;12. OPAGAC, c/Ayala 54, 28001 Madrid, Spain;13. ESSIC, university of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA;14. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;15. IATTC, La Jolla Shore Drive, La Jolla, CA 92037-1508, USA;p. Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy;q. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80205, USA;1. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia;2. Discipline of Geography and Spatial Sciences, School of Land and Food, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia;3. Sustainability Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Locked bag 4, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia;4. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia;5. Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia;6. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia;1. Ocean Wise Conservation Association, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6B 3X8;2. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4;3. Galland Consulting, Washington, DC 20009, USA;4. Environmental Studies Program, Colby College, Waterville, ME 04901, USA;5. Greenpeace, Washington, DC 20001, USA;1. ETH Zürich, Center for Comparative and International Studies, Haldeneggsteig 4, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland;2. University of Essex, Department of Government, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom;1. IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement), UMR 248 MARBEC, Sète, France;2. Institut d’Economie et de Management de Nantes, LEMNA, University of Nantes, France;3. MEMPES, University of Huelva, Spain;4. Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Peru;5. Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l’environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-UVSQ-CNRS, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France;6. ICEMASA, Departement of Ocenography, University of Cape Town, South Africa |
| |
| Abstract: | There is an urgent need for developing policy-relevant future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper is a milestone toward this aim focusing on open ocean fisheries. We develop five contrasting Oceanic System Pathways (OSPs), based on the existing five archetypal worlds of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate change research (e.g., Nakicenovic et al., 2014 and Riahi et al., 2016). First, we specify the boundaries of the oceanic social-ecological system under focus. Second, the two major driving forces of oceanic social-ecological systems are identified in each of three domains, viz., economy, management and governance. For each OSP (OSP1 “sustainability first”, OSP2 “conventional trends”, OSP3 “dislocation”, OSP4 “global elite and inequality”, OSP5 “high tech and market”), a storyline is outlined describing the evolution of the driving forces with the corresponding SSP. Finally, we compare the different pathways of oceanic social-ecological systems by projecting them in the two-dimensional spaces defined by the driving forces, in each of the economy, management and governance domains. We expect that the OSPs will serve as a common basis for future model-based scenario studies in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). |
| |
| Keywords: | Scenarios Oceanic fisheries Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) Oceanic system pathways (OSPs) Economy Management Governance |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
