源自东风波台风“灿都”发展过程的结构特征分析

对源自东风波的台风“灿都”结构变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1) 引发“灿都”发展的东风波振动强度主要表现在对流层中层,其触发的南海季风区低层对流发展偏于东风波的东北-西南向波轴的西南端。(2) “灿都”中心结构耦合过程经历了中心附近上升运动从不对称向准对称的发展过程;“灿都”中心附近上升运动趋于准对称时也是“灿都”结构调整趋于完成,强度获得快速加强的时段。这可能是东风波加强成热带气旋发展演变的动力特征之一。(3) “灿都”在热带低压阶段的暖心不明显,对流层高层出现东风波暖心特征;由热带低压加强到热带风暴强度阶段,东风波暖心特征趋于消失,低层暖中心区发展;热带风暴到台风阶段的暖中心区由对流层中低层发展至高层,但暖心位置偏于“灿都”中心东侧。      

梅雨锋暴雨中β尺度系统的结构

本文利用中尺度数值模式ＭＭ５，选取１９８１年６月２７日梅雨锋暴雨个例进行数值模拟，分析了梅雨锋的中β尺度雨团和中β尺度系统的空间结构特征。结果指出，在中β尺度雨团相对应的地面气压场上是中尺度低压槽或闭合的中低压系统；在雨团发生初期，其垂直结构为暖心涡柱对流斜压扰动；而在雨团发展期，发展为暖心涡柱强对流混合型低涡；在雨团衰弱期， 暖心涡柱非对流前倾填塞涡。同时还揭示了在北雨团发展南雨团减弱期，在低空     

梅雨期移动性雨团的合成分析

利用华东中尺度天气试验资料,按一定标准挑选1981、1983年梅雨期10个时次发展强盛的中-β尺度雨团进行合成分析。结果表明,雨团区存在明显的中尺度扰动,在对流层低层,雨团位于梅雨锋后强温度梯度区,且在反气旋涡度区后、气旋涡度区前辐合上升地带,具有斜压结构特性,並和非地转的重力波联系;在高层呈现出对流系统特性。概括出的合成雨团概念模式,揭示了大、中尺度系统间的关系及雨团发展的物理机制。     

与台风”海鸥”相关暴雨过程的水汽和干侵入研究

利用常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR的1°×1°再分析资料和WRF3.2模式的模拟结果分析了一次由台风"海鸥"与西风槽远距离相互作用产生的山东暴雨过程的水汽和干冷空气活动。结果表明:水汽辐合主要来自南边界的水汽流入,南边界水汽输入的增强主要是台风向北的水汽输送造成的,对流层低层的低涡使水汽在山东中西部地区集中。南北方向水汽辐合的大小与降水量有较好的对应关系。暴雨过程中有明显干冷空气活动,暴雨初期,对流层顶的干冷空气先行侵入降水区,引起高层西风加速和辐散加强,进而导致上升运动发展。暴雨发展期,对流层中层(500 hPa或600 hPa)干冷空气由西北向东南以偏西气流的方式侵入降水区,与暖湿空气以东西风的形式辐合上升。暴雨强盛期,对流层中层不仅有来自中纬度西北方向的干冷空气侵入,而且还有来自高纬的干冷空气侵入。干侵入始终具有高层超前于低层的特点,有利于位势不稳定的发展。干冷空气与暖湿空气活动的加强使山东地区中低层锋生加强,激发非地转垂直上升运动,是上升运动加强的机制之一。暴雨过程中对流性不稳定和条件性不稳定共存,干冷空气侵入使等相当位温面倾斜及强迫暖湿气流沿锋面倾斜上升,有利于条件性对称不稳定的发展。     

青藏高原东侧一次β中尺度对流系统的数值模拟

利用PSU/NCAR的高分辨率中尺度非静力数值模式MM5,模拟了2001年9月18日发生在青藏高原东侧的绵阳大暴雨过程.结果表明,高分辨率数值模式对触发本次降水过程的β中尺度对流系统具有较好的模拟能力.高分辨率模拟输出显示"9.18"绵阳大暴雨与边界层内一个中尺度辐合扰动的发展和移动相伴,且中尺度辐合扰动还诱发了一个时间尺度约为6 h的β中尺度涡旋和强烈发展的降水雨团.模拟还显示受高原地形影响,该β中尺度对流系统具有独特的动力和热力结构.其动力特征是强上升运动和超强散度柱与对流层低层强涡度互耦发展,热力特征是对流层低层具有对流不稳定能量,中层具有斜压不稳定能量.中尺度对流系统具有两支上升入流和两支下沉出流,低层入流(东南气流)触发低层对流不稳定能量释放,中层入流(高原近地层偏西暖湿气流)触发中层大气斜压不稳定能量释放,两种不稳定能量共同作用促使对流雨团强烈发展,形成绵阳大暴雨.     

2015年6月1—2日长江流域灾害性天气灾情、汛情和雨情特征

2015年6月1—2日灾害性天气使长江流域沿江省份出现严重灾情,众多水库超限,甚至开闸泄洪,长江支流水位上升。6月1—2日长江流域出现了多个强降水雨团,雨团大多数自西向东移动,有少数雨团停滞在局地发展加强;影响湖北南部地区强降水的致灾雨团为一个,强降水集中,降水强度大,突发性明显。仅有一个中尺度对流系统(MCS)造成湖北南部地区强降水天气的发生,该对流系统生命史10.5 h,对流系统中对流发展极其强盛,回波顶高超过18 km,大于40 d Bz的强回波达到10 km高度,这在长江流域强降水事件中较少见到。     

FY-4A GIIRS高时间分辨率温湿度廓线反演及其在台风中的应用

针对2020年第9号台风"美莎克"期间FY-4A 高光谱红外干涉式大气垂直探测仪GIIRS每15 min一次的目标区跟踪加密观测资料,用三维卷积神经网络算法反演的全天空大气温度、湿度廓线分析了台风处于生命史不同阶段时暖心结构和湿度场结构的演变特征。结果表明:卷积神经网络的深度机器学习算法可以用来反演全天空的三维大气温度和湿度垂直廓线,不光适用范围广(晴空和有云视场)、反演精度高,而且反演速度快。利用静止卫星平台高时间分辨率的特性,反演得到的温度、湿度廓线可以细致追踪台风处于发展、成熟和登陆等阶段时暖心结构和湿度场的时空演变特征。台风从发展阶段(热带风暴和强热带风暴)到成熟阶段至登陆消亡时,暖心首先出现在对流层中高层较薄的区域,随着台风强度的加强,深厚的暖心结构明显、强度增加,水平面积增大且垂直往下延伸。由于对流云中强上升气流的输送水汽正距平区逐渐上传至300 hPa,台风最强时密闭云区与四周下沉气流区比湿差高到8 K·kg^-1。暖心结构和高湿度中心随着台风登陆而逐渐消失。     

青藏高原东侧一次β中尺度对流系统的数值模拟

利用PSU／NCAR的高分辨率中尺度非静力数值模式MM5，模拟了2001年9月18日发生在青藏高原东侧的绵阳大暴雨过程。结果表明，高分辨率数值模式对触发本次降水过程的β中尺度对流系统具有较好的模拟能力。高分辨率模拟输出显示“9．18”绵阳大暴雨与边界层内一个中尺度辐合扰动的发展和移动相伴，且中尺度辐合扰动还诱发了一个时间尺度约为6h的β中尺度涡旋和强烈发展的降水雨团。模拟还显示受高原地形影响，该β中尺度对流系统具有独特的动力和热力结构。其动力特征是强上升运动和超强散度柱与对流层低层强涡度互耦发展，热力特征是对流层低层具有对流不稳定能量，中层具有斜压不稳定能量。中尺度对流系统具有两支上升人流和两支下沉出流，低层人流(东南气流)触发低层对流不稳定能量释放，中层人流(高原近地层偏西暖湿气流)触发中层大气斜压不稳定能量释放，两种不稳定能量共同作用促使对流雨团强烈发展，形成绵阳大暴雨。     

冷式和暖式切变线暴雨多普勒雷达资料对比分析

利用临沂新一代天气雷达(CINRAD/SC)观测资料和 MM5 模式产品及 Micaps 常规资料,具体分析了2005年9月20日和2006年7月3日发生在临沂市的冷式和暖式切变线暴雨到大暴雨过程的异同.分析表明两种切变线暴雨雷达回波都表现为和切变线走向一致的积层混合云降水云系,有较大范围,长度远大于宽度,对应于切变线成带絮状回波,最大回波强度相同,移速慢等特点.由于冷、暖式切变线结构上存在差异,冷式切变线暴雨低层有明显的东北气流冷垫,物理量场由低到高向北倾斜,加强了其动力上升运动;水汽输送依赖于对流层中层的西南急流,雨强的增大和高空急流的向下发展有关系.暖式切变线物理量场呈垂直分布,高低空配置利于上升运动维持,暴雨的水汽输送不仅依赖于对流层中层的西南急流,还依赖于低空西南急流,雨强的增大和中高空急流风速辐合中心的建立有关.结构的不同表现在雷达回波上不同特点为冷式切变线强回波单体或短带位于切变线南侧,而暖式切变线强回波单体或短带基本位于切变线雨带的中间.     

热带气旋“利奇马”(1909)暖心演变分析及变性过程探讨

利用NCEP GDAS/FNL再分析数据,根据TFP(Thermal Front Parameter)参数和锋生函数,对1909号热带气旋“利奇马”生命史中各主要阶段暖心特征和变性过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:“利奇马”强度为热带风暴时,其暖心结构较为松散,500 hPa以上和600 hPa以下分别存在一个最强中心,在强度减弱阶段上下层暖心均偏离气旋中心;当其强度升至强热带风暴及以上级别时,低层暖心消失,高层暖心显著增强,结构变得紧凑,气旋中心上空暖区呈棒槌状分布。高层暖心强度与“利奇马”强度呈正相关,当“利奇马”维持超强台风时,其暖心可达10~14℃。“利奇马”与中纬度西风槽接触后,冷空气开始自对流层中低层进入其环流,低层冷空气入侵的程度比中层更明显;低层暖心被冷空气侵蚀而消失,高层暖心则逐渐减弱,结构亦变得松散。TFP参数和锋生函数计算结果表明受冷空气影响,“利奇马”斜压性逐渐增强,其中心西北侧形成一支暖锋,逐渐变性为温带气旋,但冷锋未见发展。变性过程中“利奇马”高层暖心强度虽减弱但仍然维持,但低层暖区被冷空气完全填塞,导致其变性后较快消亡。     

Long-wavelength Cloud Rolls Over the Arctic Ice

Cloud bands observed over the Arctic sea ice are interpreted in terms of long-wavelength gravity-wave modes trapped between the ground and a vertically-thin over-reflecting layer in the mid-troposphere. The over-reflecting layer is neutrally-stratified and lies between the counter-streaming upper troposphere and lower troposphere in a strong high-pressure system. The Arctic cloud bands appear to share many features with the long-wavelength roll waves observed in more temperate latitudes.     

高频瞬变涡动反馈强迫对东亚/太平洋事件演变过程的作用

本文通过位势倾向方程研究了高频瞬变涡动反馈强迫(TEFF)对东亚/太平洋型在低频时间尺度上(8天以上)的演变过程(EAP事件)的影响。一个重要的发现是,无论正位相还是负位相的EAP事件,在对流层中低层上,TEFF对其中、高纬度两个异常中心的演变均起着重要的作用。尤其是高纬度中心,在对流层中层,TEFF异常在盛期前可解释其增强部分的50%左右;盛期之后则起着减缓其减弱的作用。TEFF异常可分解为由高频涡动热量通量的辐合辐散引起的TEFF_heat异常和高频涡动涡度通量引起的TEFF_vor异常。两者在对流层上层相互抵消、下层相互叠加,导致TEFF异常在对流层上层(低层)的作用要弱(强)于对流层中层。就TEFF_heat和TEFF_vor的相对贡献而言,正位相的EAP事件中,TEFF_vor的贡献较大;但在负位相EAP事件中,TEFF_heat的贡献则增大至与TEFF_vor相当的程度。这种TEFF_heat作用在负事件中的增强可能是与贝加尔湖以东地区对流层低层上斜压性的加强有关。     

1958～2005年中国高空大气比湿变化

利用经过质量控制和均一化的92站探空露点温度序列,研究了中国高空大气比湿气候学特征和1958～2005年比湿时间、空间演变以及不同时段线性变化趋势地区和季节差异。中国比湿气候场特征显示,垂直方向上90%以上的水汽集中在对流层中低层,空间呈南高北低的纬向分布。通过累积距平、滑动平均和突变点分析等方法研究了中国平均高空比湿的年代际变化,得到1958～2005年中国对流层中低层大气比湿经历“湿”、“干”、“湿”阶段性变化。不同时段线性变化趋势分析表明,1958～2005年对流层低层比湿呈上升趋势,对流层中层、高层和平流层下层为下降趋势;1979～2005年对流层低层上升趋势和对流层高层下降趋势均较整个时段明显增强。近50年来中国高空各层温度与比湿变化基本同步,统计达到显著相关,说明温度是影响比湿变化的重要因子。趋势的空间分布显示对流层下层全国大部比湿为上升趋势,且1979以来上升趋势更加明显,对流层中层趋势呈北升南降分布,对流层高层多为下降趋势。中国五个分区中西北地区对流层低层比湿上升趋势最明显,长江和华南地区升幅较小。1958～2005年对流层下层各季节比湿变化趋势差异较明显,上升趋势发生在夏、冬两季,1979～2005年四季比湿均呈上升趋势,其中夏季上升趋势最为明显。     

Cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and their extension to the surface

Many cut-off low (COL) climatologies have been done throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Few have focused on COL vertical depth and their link to surface cyclones that often accompany these systems. Here we extend these climatologies in order to gain an understanding of the spatial, mobility, temporal, and seasonal variability of COL extensions towards the surface. Deep COLs (dCOLs), with extension all the way to the surface, are most frequent in the autumn months, are longer lasting, are more mobile and found most frequently situated in the high latitudes. They are usually collocated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) on multiple isentropic surfaces. These RWB events drive high potential vorticity air into the upper troposphere. The depths of these intrusions are also shown to be critical to the development of COL extensions with dCOLs associated with deeper intrusions into the mid-troposphere. Upper-level PV features are collocated with warm surface potential temperature anomalies which can play a critical role in surface cyclogenesis. The warm surface potential temperature features, when out of phase with coupled upper tropospheric processes (surface features lagging behind upper level processes), can inhibit surfaceward extension and result in shallow COL (sCOL) development. Composite analysis shows that dCOLs that drive their own surface low development result in the simultaneous amplification of troughs throughout the troposphere, with the surface cyclone developing within a day of the COL.

     

EFFECT OF DRY COLD AIR ACTIVITY ON THE OFFSHORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON SAOMAI (2006): A NUMERICAL SIMULATION RESEARCH

Employing the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model, Super Typhoon Saomai (2006) is simulated. The variation of track and intensity and its offshore rapid intensification process are well demonstrated by the model, and the temperature and humidity patterns associated with the dry cold air activity and their impact on and mechanism of the offshore rapid intensification of Saomai are mainly studied in this paper. The results indicate that high-resolution water vapor imagery can visually reveal the development, evolution, interaction as well as the mutual complementation of the dry cold air activity accompanied with the development of Saomai. The offshore rapid intensification phenomenon of Saomai is closely related to the dry cold air which originates from the upper- and mid- troposphere. Besides, the dry cold air from the upper troposphere is stronger than that from the mid-troposphere. Saomai intensifies as the dry cold air from the northwest moves toward its circulation but weakens when the dry cold air from the southwest is drawn into the storm. Dry cold airflows and their cold advection effect caused by the downward motion across the isentropic surface are favorable to the development of Saomai. The dry cold air always moves along an isentropic surface from the upper troposphere to the mid-troposphere around the typhoon circulation and contributes to Saomai’s abrupt intensity change.     

The variability of the horizontal circulation in the troposphere and stratosphere – a comparison

Summary The variability of the horizontal circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is compared by using various approaches. Spatial degrees of freedom (dof) on different time scales were derived. Modes of variability were computed in geopotential height fields at the tropospheric and stratospheric pressure levels by applying multivariate statistical approaches. Features of the spatial and temporal variability of the winterly zonal wind were studied with the help of recurrence and persistence analyses. The geopotential height and zonally-averaged zonal wind at the 50-, 500- and 1000-hPa level are used to investigate the behavior of the horizontal circulation in the lower stratosphere, mid-troposphere and at the near surface level, respectively. It is illustrated that the features of the variability of the horizontal circulation are very similar in the mid-troposphere and at the near surface level. Due to the filtering of tropospheric disturbances by the stratospheric and upper tropospheric zonal mean flow, the variability of the stratospheric circulation exhibits less spatial complexity than the circulation at tropospheric pressure levels. There exist enormous differences in the number of degrees of freedom (or free variability modes) between both atmospheric layers. Results of the analyses clearly show that the concept of a zonally symmetric AO with a simple structure in the troposphere similar to the one in the stratosphere is not valid. It is concluded that the spatially filtered climate change signal can be detected earlier in the stratosphere than in the mid-troposphere or at the near surface level. Received June 28, 2000/Revised March 10, 2001     

夏季东亚高空急流与太平洋-日本遥相关型的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR和NOAA月平均资料,采用奇异值分解方法分析了夏季东亚高空纬向风场和西北太平洋海表温度(SST)的耦合关系,并据此研究了东亚副热带高空急流和太平洋-日本(Pacific-Japan,PJ)遥相关型的可能联系。合成分析结果表明,东亚副热带高空急流正模态年,急流偏南偏强,对流层上层南亚高压增强东进,中层西太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,菲律宾周边海域SST升高,中纬度黑潮延伸体区SST降低,菲律宾海和热带西太平洋地区对流活动偏弱,日本海和黑潮延伸体海区对流活动增强,对应PJ遥相关型的负位相;而东亚副热带高空急流负模态年,急流偏北偏弱,对流层上层南亚高压减弱西退,中层西太平洋副热带高压减弱东撤,菲律宾周边SST降低,中纬度黑潮延伸体区SST升高,菲律宾海和热带西太平洋地区对流活动强盛,日本海和黑潮延伸体海区对流活动减弱,对应PJ遥相关型的正位相。由于夏季东亚副热带高空急流活动与PJ遥相关型存在关联,PJ遥相关型可能是东亚副热带高空急流响应太平洋海温异常的纽带。     

一次降雪过程持续原因分析

利用多种观测资料和中尺度数值模拟资料,对2011年2月14日发生在江淮地区的一次预报失误的持续性降雪过程进行较为全面的分析.结果表明:前期的降水导致近地面维持较大湿度,补充南下的冷平流促使低层大气接近饱和,降雪持续期间,水汽集中在对流层低层浅薄的层次中;对流层中层发展和维持的强冷平流导致降水区上空迅速降温减湿,从而在对流层中低层,逐渐建立起弱对流不稳定层结.而叠置其上的稳定层则将对流活动和水汽的向上输送限制在对流层低层内,使得水汽和能量得以在一定范围内集中;不断补充南下的冷空气强迫近地层风场发生扰动,形成的中尺度切变线,为这种浅薄层次下的弱对流活动提供了触发条件.尽管辐合抬升较弱,但与其它季节相比,气温较低的冬季,在抬升凝结高度较低的大气中,水汽易凝结成云致降水.造成这次预报失误的原因,是忽略了近地层系统的变化.另外,对补充冷空气的影响作用考虑不充分.     

The Interannual Variations of Summer Precipitation in the Northern Indian Ocean Associated with ENSO

Using rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP),NOAA extended reconstruction sea surface temperature(ERSST),and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis,this study investigates the interannual variation of summer rainfall southwest of the Indian Peninsula and the northeastern Bay of Bengal associated with ENSO.The composite study indicates a decreased summer rainfall southwest of the Indian Peninsula and an increase in the northeastern Bay of Bengal during the developing phase,but vice versa during the decay phase of El Ni o.Further regression analysis demonstrates that abnormal rainfall in the above two regions is controlled by different mechanisms.Southwest of the Indian Peninsula,the precipitation anomaly is related to local convection and water vapor flux in the decay phase of El Ni o.The anomalous cyclone circulation at the lower troposphere helps strengthen rainfall.In the northeastern Bay of Bengal,the anomalous rainfall depends on the strength of the Indian southwest summer monsoon(ISSM).A strong/weak ISSM in the developing/decay phase of El Ni o can bring more/less water vapor to strengthen/weaken the local summer precipitation.     

Vertical structure of tropical mesoscale convective systems: observations using VHF radar and cloud resolving model simulations

This study examines the time–height variation and structure of a tropical mesoscale convective system (TMCS). Convection experiments using VHF (53 MHz) radar aimed at improving the understanding of the vertical structure of TMCS occurred over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), India during 21–22 June 2000 has been selected for the study. The time–height variations of reflectivity and vertical velocity exhibits four distinct patterns and have been used to classify four subjectively identified types of echoes; viz., formative, mature, transition zone and stratiform regions associated with TMCS. Average vertical velocity profiles were distinctive for each region. The mean vertical motion is upward at all levels in the troposphere during the formative phase. The vertical motion in the mature region is downward in the lower troposphere and upward in the middle and upper troposphere. The maximum upward motion is found in the middle troposphere and secondary maxima near the tropopause level. The transition zone is characterized by strong downdraft in the lower troposphere with local pockets of updrafts in the middle and upper troposphere. The magnitude of the mean vertical motion is considerably reduced in the stratiform region and is downward in the lower troposphere and upward in the upper troposphere. Time–height variation of reflectivity has been analyzed separately for each region. The observed diminished echo zone and tropopause break/weakening during the mature phase and two enhanced reflectivity zone in the stratiform region is also observed. A Cloud System Resolving Model (CSRM) simulation of the same event has been carried out. The CSRM simulations were able to capture the structure of the storm and are consistent with the observations. The model output in conjunction with observations has been used to validate the hypothesis.