乌拉特中旗一次强沙尘暴天气成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、亚欧天气分析图,对2010年3月19日的一次由蒙古冷涡强烈发展而引发的强沙尘暴天气过程,从天气学成因、动力机制等方面进行分析。表明,强冷空气的卷入使蒙古冷涡强烈发展,为沙尘暴的发生提供了动力条件;蒙古冷涡的垂直结构提供了动量下传机制,在地面冷锋后部形成大风区,为沙尘暴的形成提供了基本条件。通过对这次蒙古冷涡引发的强沙尘暴天气过程的分析,找出蒙古冷涡引发的沙尘暴天气过程的一些特点和预报着眼点。     

两次影响内蒙古地区沙尘暴天气的对比分析

对内蒙古地区2004年3月9至10日和2004年3月26至27日发生的沙尘暴天气过程进行了数值模拟和对比分析。两次沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响系统分别是强冷锋锋区和蒙古冷涡。分析结果表明：强冷空气活动是内蒙古地区沙尘暴天气发生的主要原因。沙尘暴天气发生时，蒙古气旋和强冷锋锋区的动力机制有所不同，蒙古冷涡系统中动量下传效率较高，而强冷锋锋区系统中高空急流更强劲。同时分析表明：锋面次级环流对西风的增强和沙尘暴的形成有重要作用。     

近年来强沙尘暴天气气候特征的分析研究

2000～2002年春季(3～5月)中国北方有12次强沙尘暴天气过程发生,其中11次与蒙古气旋有关.作者从干旱气候背景、环流状况、沙尘源、沙尘路径及天气系统等方面进行了分析,并集中对引发强沙尘暴的蒙古气旋进行了诊断分析.结果表明:在这3年中,春季我国北方强沙尘暴天气主要与蒙古气旋的发展移动有关,气旋冷锋后的大风是强沙尘暴天气发生的主要动力因子;蒙古国南部、巴丹吉林沙漠、腾格里沙漠、乌兰布和沙漠和毛乌素沙地是强沙尘暴过程的主要沙尘源地;影响我国的强沙尘暴的沙尘路径至少可分为3种类型,即偏西路径、西北路径和南疆盆地型,以西北路径居多;我国北方春季的连续干旱、气温偏高及冷空气活跃是强沙尘暴天气形成的重要气候背景.     

2007年内蒙古最强沙尘暴天气过程分析

利用基本气象资料和T213数值预报产品资料,对2007年发生在内蒙古大部地区最强的一次强沙尘暴天气过程进行了天气和动力诊断分析。结果表明：高空急流是强风的动量来源;中低层的温度平流输送过程和较强的斜压强迫是蒙古气旋发展的前期原因;蒙古气旋强烈发展的梯度风、高低空急流的动量下传风促使气旋爆发性发展和产生沙尘暴。在沙尘暴天气的形成中,湍流条件也起到重要的作用。     

中国北方特强沙尘暴的天气系统分型研究

使用中国中央气象台出版的历史天气图资料,对1957—1996年和2001—2002年间发生在我国北方的33次特强沙尘暴过程的天气系统进行了分析研究,重点归纳了形成各次沙尘暴过程的天气系统的热力和动力结构、活动特征及高低层系统的相互配置。在此基础上,以触发沙尘暴强风的主要地面天气系统为主要依据,将形成我国北方特强沙尘暴的天气系统,划分成纯冷锋型、蒙古气旋与冷锋混合型、蒙古冷高压型和干飑线与冷锋混合型4种类型。研究了各类型天气系统在沙尘暴强风形成中的作用、各类型强风的特点及沙尘暴天气的时空分布特征,给出了各类型特强沙尘暴的天气学概念模型。     

EPSONGT-10000+扫描仪一次故障排除

本文对2004年3月26日～28日发生在青海西北部、甘肃西部、内蒙古中西部等地的一次强沙尘暴天气过程从天气事实、天气学成因等方面进行了分析和诊断,指出这次沙尘暴过程发生在大气环流调整过程中,前期持续增温为沙尘暴的发生提供了有利的热力条件,斜压槽及强锋区、蒙古气旋和冷锋是触发这次沙尘暴天气过程的重要天气系统;高空急流的动量下传促进了蒙古气旋的发展;涡度对沙尘暴的落区有很好的指示性;在沙尘暴发生区域,对流层低层和近地面层为不稳定层结,从而引起了强烈的垂直上升运动,导致低层强烈辐合,在近地层形成大风和沙尘暴。     

浅析内蒙古中西部一次沙尘暴预报过程

对内蒙古地区2006年3月9日由蒙古气旋强烈发展造成的沙尘暴天气过程进行了天气学的诊断分析。通过与常规气象观测和卫星资料进行的对比,分析发现,强冷空气活动是本次沙尘暴天气发生的主要原因。在沙尘暴天气发生时,蒙古气旋系统中动量下传效率较高,这是地面蒙古气旋强烈发展形成本次沙尘暴过程最为显著的特点。它是由中高层西北气流控制下,在中低层波动发展形成的次级环流使动量下传,同时斜压强迫促使地面蒙古气旋强烈发展而形成的。与典型的高空深厚冷涡的形势形成鲜明的对比,预报难度较大。     

2010年内蒙古中西部地区一次强沙尘暴的天气分析

文章对2010年3月19日发生在内蒙古中西部地区的一次强沙尘暴天气进行了分析,结果表明,此次强沙尘暴是北路强冷空气引发的锋后西北大风沙尘暴天气过程,不断加强的蒙古冷高压和地面冷锋入侵是沙尘暴爆发的动力机制,强烈地上升运动和暖平流使得沙尘暴发生前内蒙古中西部地区上空积累了大量的不稳定能量,高空冷平流的侵扰促使不稳定能量释放,沙尘天气爆发。此外,高空急流的维持促使低层风速明显加大,有利于沙尘天气发展。沙尘暴发生前在对流层中层出现了逆温层,伴随着沙尘暴的发展,对流层中低层形成了深厚的混合层。沙尘天气结束后,大气层结趋于稳定。     

一次特异强沙尘暴天气成因分析

针对 2 0 0 1年 3月 2 6日出现在我国河西走廊东部和蒙古地区的一次强沙尘暴、大风、浮尘天气过程 ,从天气形势、气候成因、动力诊断等方面进行了探讨。分析结果表明 ,蒙古强冷空气南压 ,入侵河西东部 ,加之该区今春以来干旱严重 ,气温偏高 ,地表干土层增厚 ,形成了大风、强沙尘暴、浮尘天气。     

乌兰察布市一次沙尘暴天气分析

利用气象基本观测资料及T213资料,从天气学成因、动力机制、环流形势等方面对2007年3月30—31日出现在乌兰察布市的沙尘暴天气过程进行了分析。分析发现这次沙尘暴天气是在前期干旱少雨情况下受强烈发展的蒙古气旋影响造成的;冷空气活动是沙尘暴天气发生的主要原因,强锋区产生的斜压不稳定促使蒙古气旋发展,高空急流的存在为沙尘暴天气的发生提供了能量;而高层辐合,低层辐散所产生的下沉气流将高空急流动量下传,进一步加强了蒙古气旋强烈发展。     

基于自然的解决方案：中国应对气候变化领域的政策进展、问题与对策

基于自然的解决方案（NbS）在应对气候变化领域的重要作用日益受到国际社会的关注。本文将NbS在应对气候变化领域的生态系统划分为森林、草地、农田、湿地、海洋、城市,采用传统环境政策工具分类,将六大生态系统的政策工具划分为命令控制型、经济激励型、自愿参与型三类。在此基础上,梳理构建NbS在我国应对气候变化领域的政策框架。结果表明,我国初步形成了以命令控制型政策为主,重视通过经济激励型政策引导,并逐步完善自愿参与型政策的NbS政策体系。然而,NbS在我国应对气候变化领域的政策仍存在诸多问题,包括NbS尚未成为应对气候变化的主流措施、缺乏自上而下的管理机制、未形成理论与实践的有机统一、资金来源单一、技术支撑和能力建设薄弱、公众参与度有待进一步加强等。为发挥NbS在我国应对气候变化领域的潜力,建议将NbS纳入我国下阶段国家自主贡献更新文件中,争取提出有关NbS的定量承诺,推动NbS成为应对气候变化的主流措施,构建自上而下的管理机制,建立多元化的资金投入机制,加强从理论到实践、从路径到政策的研究,提升能力保障和公众参与度。     

近55 a中国西北地区夏季降水的时空演变特征

利用1961—2015年中国西北地区274个气象观测站点的日降水数据和再分析大气资料,采用EOF分析及累积距平等方法,研究了近55 a中国西北地区夏季降水的时空演变特征。结果表明：1）1961—2015年中国西北地区夏季降水的演变可分为三个时段,1961—1975年,该区域降水普遍偏少;1976—1996年,西北地区的东部降水偏多,西部降水偏少;1997—2015年,其东部降水偏少,而西部降水偏多。2）1976—1996年,西北地区东部降水偏多,是因为该地区夏季降水强度和降水频次明显增加,而西部降水偏少,则是该区域小雨与中雨的频次减少,降水强度偏弱造成的;1997—2015年,由于有效降水日数减少,降水强度偏弱等原因导致西北地区东部降水偏少,与此同时,西北地区的西部却因降水强度明显增强,持续降水日数和极端降水事件增加使得该区域降水呈现偏多的态势。3）降水区的转移,伴随着北半球对流层中层中纬度波列的演变,同时来自东欧与印度季风的水汽输送也对降水的异常起到了关键作用。     

Shocks to fish production: Identification,trends, and consequences

Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system.     

Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability

Improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to the impacts of climate change is crucial for food security in Asia. This study analyzes the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems dependent on the Asian monsoon to adapt to variability in river discharge caused by climate change. Our study is motivated by the Pumpa irrigation system, a small-scale irrigation system located in Nepal that is a model for this type of system. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the decisions farmers make about the irrigation strategy to use according to available water flow. Given the uncertainty associated with how climate change may affect the Asian monsoon, we simulated the performance of the system under different projections of climate change in the region (increase and decrease in rainfall, reduction and expansion of the monsoon season, and changes in the timing of the onset of the monsoon). Accordingly to our simulations, farmers might need to adapt to rainfall intensification and a late onset in the monsoon season. The demands for collective action among farmers (e.g. infrastructure repair, meetings, decisions, etc.) might increase considerably due to climate change. Although our model suggests that investment in new infrastructure might increase the performance of the system under some climate change scenarios, the high inequality among farmers when water availability is reduced might hinder the efficiency of these measures due to a reduction of farmers’ willingness to cooperate. Our modeling exercise helps to hypothesize about the most sensitive climate change scenarios for smallscale irrigation farming in Nepal and helps to frame a discussion of some possible solutions and fundamental trade-offs in the process of adaptation to improve for food and water security under climate change.     

Cultivating resilience by empirically revealing response diversity

Intensified climate and market turbulence requires resilience to a multitude of changes. Diversity reduces the sensitivity to disturbance and fosters the capacity to adapt to various future scenarios. What really matters is diversity of responses. Despite appeals to manage resilience, conceptual developments have not yet yielded a break-through in empirical applications. Here, we present an approach to empirically reveal the ‘response diversity’: the factors of change that are critical to a system are identified, and the response diversity is determined based on the documented component responses to these factors. We illustrate this approach and its added value using an example of securing food supply in the face of climate variability and change. This example demonstrates that quantifying response diversity allows for a new perspective: despite continued increase in cultivar diversity of barley, the diversity in responses to weather declined during the last decade in the regions where most of the barley is grown in Finland. This was due to greater homogeneity in responses among new cultivars than among older ones. Such a decline in the response diversity indicates increased vulnerability and reduced resilience. The assessment serves adaptive management in the face of both ecological and socio-economic drivers. Supplier diversity in the food retail industry in order to secure affordable food in spite of global price volatility could represent another application. The approach is, indeed, applicable to any system for which it is possible to adopt empirical information regarding the response by its components to the critical factors of variability and change. Targeting diversification in response to critical change brings efficiency into diversity. We propose the generic procedure that is demonstrated in this study as a means to efficiently enhance resilience at multiple levels of agrifood systems and beyond.     

西南地区云水量与可降水量比值的分布特征和变化趋势

采用1980～2009年云水量和可降水量的NCEP逐月再分析资料,通过统计分析,研究30a来西南地区（云南、贵州、讴庆、四川）云水量与可降水量比值的时空分布特征和变化趋势。结果表明：（1）西南地区年、季17孟水量与可降水比值均具有明显的地区性差异,由西北向东南递减,高值区位于川西高原;（2）云水量与可降水比值年内分布不均匀,从2月到8月逐渐减小,9月至1月逐渐增大,同时,季节差异较大,夏季最小,冬季最大;（3）30a来,整个西南地区年、夏季和秋季云水量与可降水量比值呈显著减少趋势。     

A linked vulnerability and resilience framework for adaptation pathways in remote disadvantaged communities

We develop a systems framework for exploring adaptation pathways to climate change among people in remote and marginalized regions. The framework builds on two common and seemingly paradoxical narratives about people in remote regions. The first is recognition that people in remote regions demonstrate significant resilience to climate and resource variability, and may therefore be among the best equipped to adapt to climate change. The second narrative is that many people in remote regions are chronically disadvantaged and therefore are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. These narratives, taken in isolation and in extremis, can have significant maladaptive policy and practice implications. From a systems perspective, both narratives may be valid, because they form elements of latent and dominant feedback loops that require articulation for a nuanced understanding of vulnerability-reducing and resilience-building responses in a joint framework. Through literature review and community engagement across three remote regions on different continents, we test the potential of the framework to assist dialogue about adaptation pathways in remote marginalized communities. In an adaptation pathway view, short-term responses to vulnerability can risk locking in a pathway that increases specific resilience but creates greater vulnerability in the long-term. Equally, longer-term actions towards increasing desirable forms of resilience need to take account of short-term realities to respond to acute and multiple needs of marginalized remote communities. The framework was useful in uniting vulnerability and resilience narratives, and broadening the scope for adaptation policy and action on adaptation pathways for remote regions.     

一次大范围海效应暴雪的雷达反演风场分析

用EVAP(Extended Velocity Azimuth Processing)方法对2010年12月30日发生在山东半岛的一次海效应暴雪过程进行风场反演,以了解暴雪过程中雷达回波和低层风场的特征。得出以下结论:(1)烟台和威海暴雪发生时间不同步,降雪带有明显东移的过程,对应烟台强回波带逐渐向东移动,而威海回波位置少动。(2)雷达回波开始产生于渤海,减弱也始于渤海;强回波带的位置与风场的辐合区有很好的对应关系。(3)反演风场水平切变线的移动,会引起强回波带的波动;烟台北部切变线相对稳定,南部切变线西移,致使强回波带沿顺时针方向旋转;威海南部切变线位置相对稳定,北部切变线西移,引起强回波带沿逆时针方向旋转。(4)辐合切变线是由经过辽宁南下的东北风与山东半岛的西北风(西风)辐合构成;切变线受西风分量减弱的影响而发生移动。     

Uncertainty in Predicting the Effect of Climatic Change on the Carbon Cycling of Canadian Peatlands

Northern peatlands play an important role globally in the cycling of C, through the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere, the emission of CH4, the production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the storage of C. Under 2 × CO2 GCM scenarios, most Canadian peatlands will be exposed to increases in mean annual temperature ranging between 2 and 6° C and increases in mean annual precipitation of 0 to 15 %, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the winter. The increase in CO2 uptake by plants, through warmer temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO2, is likely to be offset by increased soil respiration rates in response to warmer soils and lowered water tables. CH4 emissions are likely to decrease in most peatlands because of lowered water tables, except where the peat surface adjusts to fluctuating water tables, and in permafrost, where the collapse of dry plateau and palsa will lead to increase CH4 emission. There likely will be little change in DOC production, but DOC export to water bodies will decrease as runoff decreases. The storage of C in peatlands is sensitive to all C cycle components and is difficult to predict. The challenge is to develop quantitative models capable of making these predictions for different peatlands. We present some qualitative responses, with levels of uncertainty. There will be, however, as much variation in response to climatic change within a peatland as there will be among peatland regions.     

2006年杭嘉湖平原夏秋天气异常分析

2006年杭嘉湖平原出现夏季特长、秋季极短,梅雨量极少、高温天数多、夏旱连秋旱的气候异常现象,对大气环流进行分析发现,西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西,北半球极涡偏弱,冷空气活动偏北,亚洲地区盛行纬向环流.区域气候的异常与大气环流的季节转换异常有关,并且大气环流的异常可以追溯到其前期环流的异常.2006年前冬和春季中高纬度较强的经向环流和持续偏强的副热带高压使得该年夏季副高继续偏强,并且春季的这一环流异常现象,导致秋季大气环流向冬季过渡较快.对涡动高度的分析表明,5月平流层正中心的异常两移、6～7月平流层持续分裂出两个正中心,以及9月正中心的异常增强,预示和促进了夏季低层大气环流的异常发展,从而夏季偏长、夏秋季节转换推迟;11月冷低压的异常增强南压和暖高压的突然减弱,使秋冬季节转换较快,从而秋季极短.