Statistical forecast of surface ozone concentration in Moscow

Two synoptic-statistical methods for forecasting daily maximum surface ozone concentrations are proposed based on the relations between surface ozone and meteorological variables in the Moscow region. The methods use current ozone measurements and forecasts of meteorological variables and of synoptic situation. Statistically, the methods provide better forecast results than climatic and persistence methods. Compared with the persistence forecast, the above methods reduce the variance of the forecast error from 1.5 to 2 times. The most significant predictors for forecasting daily maximum surface ozone concentration with lead times of one to three days for Moscow are the forecast time (Julian day of the year), prognostic temperature, relative humidity, indices of the meteorological pollution potential of the atmosphere (MPP), and surface ozone concentration observed on the previous day. The forecast efficiency is demonstrated using the 2006 observational data from the stations of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences-Moscow State University and Mosecomonitoring State Nature Protection Organization.     

Long-Term Trends in Extreme Temperatures in Hong Kong and Southern China

The observed long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong were studied based on the meteorological data recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1885-2008. Results show that, over the past 124 years, the extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the length of the warm spell in Hong Kong, exhibit statistically significant long-term rising trends, while the length of the cold spell shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. The time-dependent return period analysis also indicated that the return period for daily minimum temperature at 4°C or lower lengthened considerably from 6 years in 1900 to over 150 years in 2000, while the return periods for daily maximum temperature reaching 35°C or above shortened drastically from 32 years in 1900 to 4.5 years in 2000. Past trends in extreme temperatures from selected weather stations in southern China from 1951-2004 were also assessed. Over 70% of the stations studied yielded a statistically significant rising trend in extreme daily minimum temperature, while the trend for extreme maximum temperatures was found to vary, with no significant trend established for the majority of stations.     

The Influence of Selected Meteorological Parameters on the Concentration of Surface Ozone in the Central Region of Poland

Abstract?This paper presents the results of measurements of the concentration of surface ozone and concurrent standard meteorological parameters: total solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed, and vertical and horizontal components of the wind. The data were collected from 2005 to 2010 at stations located in central Poland (Mazowieckie voivodeship): Warszawa (urban), Legionowo (suburban), Granica and Belsk (rural). Furthermore, Granica is situated in the forested area of Kampinoski National Park. Continuously measured surface ozone concentrations demonstrated the well-known diurnal cycle of surface ozone concentration with a maximum in the afternoon and a minimum in the early morning hours. The averaged diurnal variations over six years reveal that the highest concentrations appear at rural stations (Belsk: 55?µg?m^?3 and Granica: 50?µg?m^?3) and the lowest at the urban station (Warszawa: 41?µg?m^?3). The threshold for high levels of surface ozone (120?µg?m^?3 per 8?h) was exceeded most often at Granica and Belsk. The occurrence of the ozone “weekend effect,” especially at urban stations, has been identified. The difference between weekend and weekday surface ozone concentrations at urban and rural stations was as high as 6.5?µg?m^?3 and approximately 2?µg?m^?3, respectively. Using appropriate statistical tools, it has been shown that meteorological conditions have a significant influence on ozone concentration. High correlation coefficients were found between ozone concentration and solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The forward stepwise regression model explains up to 75% of the variations in daily surface ozone concentration in terms of meteorological variability in summer and up to 70% in winter. At the same time, a multilayer perceptron neural network model was used to reconstruct the concentration of surface ozone. High correlation coefficients (up to 0.89) indicate that, on the basis of standard meteorological parameters and NO₂ concentration, we can determine ozone concentration with high accuracy.     

Trend analysis of temperature parameters in Iran

In this study, long-term annual and monthly trends in mean maximum, mean minimum and mean temperature are investigated at 35 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical significance of trends is assessed by the Mann–Kendall test. Most stations, especially those in western and eastern parts of country, had significant positive trends in monthly temperature time series in summer season. However, the maximum number of stations with the positive trend were observed in April (30 stations), and then in August (29 stations) while the negative trends were seen in February (16 stations) and March (15 stations). On annual scale, most stations in western and southern parts of Iran had significant positive trend. Overall, about 71%, 66% and about 40% of stations had statistically significant trends in mean annual temperature, mean annual minimum temperature and in mean annual maximum temperature, respectively. These results, however, indicate that the climate in Iran is growing warmer, especially in summer.     

Periodic variability of surface ozone concentration over western and central Europe from observational data

Characteristics of periodic variability of surface ozone concentration at 98 western and central European stations participating in the EMEP program for at least 7 (up to 14) years are determined. Daily and hourly model concentrations of surface ozone for each station are given in an analytical form that presents a sum of a constant constituent and basic harmonics that determine ozone concentration variability throughout a year and a day. A 12-month harmonic, whose maximum is observed in the spring period (in Northern Europe it is observed 1 to 2 months earlier than in Southern Europe) dominates in the energy spectrum of seasonal variability of daily mean ozone concentration at most stations. The energy part of higher (6-and 4-month) harmonics is the largest at the stations close to the sea and ocean coasts. Higher harmonics largely influence the time of the ozone extremum formation, shifting it towards the summer, or even forming a second (summer) maximum, whose magnitude at a number of stations (in Italy, Hungary, in the south of Germany, and in some others) exceeds the spring maximum. A 24-hour harmonic dominates in the energy spectrum of daily ozone variability. The maps of a “normal” distribution of surface ozone fields and their standard deviations for different seasons and time of the day have been compiled based on the model characteristics. The “norms” derived can be used to detect anomalies in the temporal trend of the surface ozone and to validate its climate changes.     

Important factors governing the incompatible trends of annual pan evaporation: evidence from a small scale region

Many studies reported the coexisting trends of decreasing and increasing pan evaporation in some large scale regions. This study proved that the coexisting trends also occurred in small scale region as well as in large scale region. To discover the important factors governing the incompatible trends of annual pan evaporation, annual climatic data of ten meteorological stations at the Liaohe Delta over recent 45 years were analyzed by the partial correlation analysis, and the results showed the strongest statistically correlation between annual relative humidity and annual pan evaporation. Researches on two extreme cases suggested there was obvious contrary trend between annual relative humidity and annual pan evaporation for one case, in despite of slight contrary trend for another case. Generally, annual relative humidity most likely was an important factor relating to the trend of annual pan evaporation. At the same time, an expanded urbanization and irrigation were seen around these meteorological stations. Urbanization and irrigation exerted opposite effects on pan evaporation, they therefore were speculated to be the ultimately inducements causing unbalanced relative humidity, and led to incompatible pan evaporation.     

Concentration of trace gases in the lower troposphere,simultaneously recorded at neighboring mountain stations Part II: Ozone

Summary Long-term ozone recordings at different altitude levels, conducted in remote areas, can make a valuable contribution to an understanding of the background level of ozone, its periodical variations and possible long-term trends.The measuring stations (three high mountain stations between 740 and nearly 3000 m a.s.l. with small horizontal distance) are described together with recording and calibration procedures. Information is provided on the time history of all recordings since 1978, considering not only the annual means but also the monthly and 10-day means as a function of height. An analysis is presented of the annual variations which differ considerably in the respective height levels and—in three-dimensional diagrams—the correlation between daily and annual variation is shown as a function of height. Then follows a careful parameterization: analysis of the frequency distribution of the ozone concentration, correlation with relative humidity, relative sunshine duration, and temperature. It can be seen that the correlations are very different and partly inverse, depending on the altitude level.Many ozone profiles obtained between valley level and nearly 3000 m a.s.l. (cable car O₃ radiosonde) give a picture of the typical ozone profile for different meteorological situations and for the case of stratospheric intrusions of ozone into the troposphere. The stratospheric contribution of ozone to the tropospheric ozone budget is discussed.Since obviously a very high photochemical production rate can be established for ozone in the lowest layer above ground (correlation of O₃ with the daily variation of the sunshine duration) it was examined if this O₃ variation might be caused only by horizontal transport of ozone from remote areas with high anthropogenic activity by the daily quasiperiodical currents near the ground. But this is not the case.The correlation between ozone concentration, other trace gases such as nitrogen-oxygen compounds and hydrocarbons is shown.With 29 Figures     

近46a虎林市气候变化的趋势分析

利用累积距平法和线性趋势分析法对虎林市1961～2006年的年、季平均气温、降水和相对湿度的长期变化特征进行分析,结果表明：近46a来虎林市的气候表现出向暖干型发展的趋势：年和季平均气温均呈上升趋势,各季气温上升幅度略有不同;年降水量有略微增加趋势,相对湿度有略微减小趋势。     

Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China

On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal temperatures from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008, the temperature trends are analyzed by using Mann–Kendall test and linear trend analysis. There is an increasing trend in mean annual and seasonal temperatures during this period, and the increasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in the other three seasons. The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.0158°C/year during the last 48 years. There are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends for annual and seasonal temperatures. The increasing trends in the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than those in the middle and lower reaches. The largest increase magnitude occurred in the low temperature area, while the largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature area. The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the maximum temperature time series, and summer is the only season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend. All the time series showed a statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α?=?0.05 for the minimum temperature time series. As a whole, the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magnitude of the maximum temperature.     

Trends, stability and stress in the Colombian Central Andes

Mountain ecosystems have been projected to experience faster rates of warming than surrounding lowlands. These changes in climatic conditions could have significant impacts on high-altitude Andean environments, affecting the quality and magnitude of their economic and environmental services. Even though long-term data in these regions are limited, it is important to identify any discernible long-term trends in local climatic conditions. Time series of several variables were analyzed to detect statistically significant long-term linear trends that occurred over recent years in a páramo ecosystem of the Colombian Central Andes. Records included cloud characteristics, sunshine, rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and relative humidity. Conditions of atmospheric stability were also explored. Total sunshine exhibited decreasing trends ranging from ?3.7 to ?8.5% per decade at altitudes around the pluviometric optimum. The strongest changes in sunshine occurred during the December-January-February season. Mean relative humidity observed at altitudes around and below this threshold showed increasing trends of +0.6 to +0.7% per decade. Annual rainfall and mean relative humidity above the optimum showed decreasing trends ranging from ?7 to ?11% per decade and from ?1.5 to ?3.6% per decade, respectively. Minimum temperatures on the coldest days and maximum temperatures on the warmest days exhibited increasing trends at all altitudes ranging from +0.1 to +0.6, and from +0.2 to +1.1°C per decade, respectively. Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures at higher altitudes were significantly greater than those observed in average at lower altitudes. The strongest changes in minimum temperatures, particularly, occurred during the December–January–February and June–July–August dry seasons. All these changes suggest that atmospheric conditions in the area are shifting from statically unstable conditions to conditionally unstable or statically stable conditions. Observed historical trends indicate that climate impacts and other human activities have stressed these unique and fragile environments.     

Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin,India

In this study, trend analyses of historic past climatic variables were investigated for the Betwa basin located in Central India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann–Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, pre-whitening is used before employing the MK test. The long-term trend analysis showed several of the meteorological stations to exhibit a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area. Seasonal and yearly numbers of rainy days are decreased. However, onset of effective monsoon (except for Shivpuri and Tikamgarh stations) did not show any trend during the study period. For maximum temperature, five out of 12 stations showed a decreasing trend in monsoon season whereas almost all other stations showed an increasing trend in winter and no trend in summer season. For minimum temperature, only two stations of the basin showed a decreasing trend in monsoon and all other stations exhibited a significant increase in winter and summer season. The increase of winter temperature may adversely affect the growth of Rabi crop (wheat and mustard) in the study area. Potential evopotranspiration (PET) did not show any trend in monsoon, except for Jalaun and Jhansi stations, showing decreasing trends. Raisen and Vidisha stations showed an increasing trend in winter only, and the trend for other stations were random in nature. In summer, five out of 12 stations showed an increasing trend in PET. Results of this study can be employed in preparation of water resources development and management plan in the Betwa Basin.     

Surface ozone concentrations in Agra: links with the prevailing meteorological parameters

Measurements of surface ozone (O₃), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x=NO+NO₂) and meteorological parameters have been made at Agra (North Central India, 27°10??N, 78°05??E) in post monsoon and winter season. The diurnal variation in O₃ concentration shows daytime in situ photochemical production with diurnal maximum in noon hours ranging from 51 to 54 ppb in post monsoon and from 76 to 82 ppb in winter, while minimum (16?C24 ppb) during nighttime and early morning hours. Average 8-h O₃ concentration varied from 12.4 to 83.9 ppb. The relationship between meteorological parameters (solar radiation intensity, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction) and surface O₃ variability was studied using principal component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and correlation analysis (CA). PCA and MLR of daily mean O₃ concentrations on meteorological parameters explain up to 80 % of day to day ozone variability. Correlation with meteorology is strongly emphasized on days having strong solar radiation intensity and longer sunshine time.     

河北省雾凇和雨凇气候特征及气象条件分析

利用1980—2009年河北省142个气象站的雾凇、雨凇资料、河北省南部94个气象站的地面观测资料和邢台探空资料,分析了河北省雾凇、雨凇的时空分布特征;利用箱线图分析了河北省南部适宜雾凇、雨凇出现的温度、湿度和风速等气象条件。结果表明：（1）在空间分布上,雾凇、雨凇主要出现在河北省南部,东部平原多,西部山区少;在时间分布上,雾凇、雨凇均出现在11月至次年3月。（2）适宜雾凇出现的气象条件是雾日并且气温在-7.2～-3.1℃之间、相对湿度≥92%、风速≤1.2 m·s~（-1）;雾凇出现时,95%的情况出现了逆温层。（3）适宜雨凇出现的气象条件是雨日并且气温在-4.1～0℃之间、相对湿度≥87%;雨凇出现时均有逆温层出现。（4）雾凇、雨凇高值区的相对湿度明显高于低值区,因此相对湿度大是雾凇、雨凇高值区形成的主要原因。     

Surface ozone concentration variability in Moscow and Kiev

The comparison is represented of the results of surface ozone concentration measurements in two megalopolises, Moscow and Kiev. A temporal course of ozone concentration and temperature in both cities is close by the shape and is typical of medium-polluted plain stations. In both megalopolises, two maxima are observed within the seasonal ozone concentration variability, in spring and summer, and during the day, a usual ozone concentration maximum (approximately in 2–3 hours after the local noon) and the night one being typical of big cities. An average ozone concentration and an average temperature in corresponding periods are higher in Kiev than in Moscow. Evidently, the summer maximum is associated with photochemical ozone generation processes, and the spring one, with dynamic processes of its transport in the atmosphere. In both megalopolises, the episodes are observed in the warm period under meteorological conditions being unfavorable for the pollutant scattering in the atmosphere when the ozone concentration exceeds the threshold limit value and is dangerous for health. The repeatability of such episodes is the highest one in July-August. In Kiev, such episodes are more frequent than in Moscow. An effective statistical model is constructed for both megalopolises in which the observed ozone concentration is represented in the form of regression function of temperature and relative humidity.     

Results of surface ozone monitoring in the atmosphere over Ulan-Ude

Presented are the results of surface ozone monitoring in the atmosphere over Ulan-Ude during the period from 2000 to 2012. Revealed are seasonal and diurnal variations of surface ozone. The analysis of the seasonal variability of surface ozone concentration indicates the presence of the clearly pronounced maximum in spring-summer period. A statistical model of forecasting single concentrations of the surface ozone is considered using the multiple regression analysis. Temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, wind speed, turbulence factor, temperature gradient, velocity of vertical flow, and concentrations of minor gas admixtures such as nitrogen oxides are used as predictors. Analyzed are statistical relationships, where observed ozone values are presented in the form of the regression function of the most significant predictors.     

1962—2017年辽宁省设施农业生长季寡照灾害时空特征及影响因素

利用辽宁省28个气象站日照时数观测数据,采用Fortran语言自动识别技术和统计诊断分析方法,以设施黄瓜和茄子为例,分析了1962-2017年辽宁省设施农业生长季寡照灾害发生频数的时空变化特征。结果表明：气候态下,辽宁省设施黄瓜和茄子轻度寡照灾害发生频数占总发生频数的百分比高达96.1%,中度寡照灾害发生频数仅占总发生频数的3.9%,且近56 a没有发生重度寡照灾害。轻度寡照灾害发生频数呈经向型分布,辽宁西部地区最少,辽宁北部和辽宁东部地区最多;11月发生频数最多,2月和3月最少。轻度寡照灾害发生频数空间上阜新东部和朝阳东部增加趋势最大,时间上气候倾向率为0.68次·（10 a）^-1,并且在1999年前后发生了显著的年代际突变。轻度寡照灾害发生频数与同期风速呈显著负相关,与相对湿度和降水日数呈显著正相关。风速和降水日数对辽宁大部地区寡照灾害发生频数的线性增加影响显著,相对湿度则对辽宁局部地区的线性增加影响显著。1962年以来,辽宁省设施黄瓜和茄子最易发生轻度寡照灾害,且发生频数在时间和空间上均呈显著增加趋势。     

Temporal and Spatial Trends of Temperature Patterns in Israel

Summary  Daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 40 stations in Israel were analyzed to detect long-term trends and changes in temporal and spatial distribution patterns during the second half of the 20th Century. The trend analysis, reveals a rather complex changing pattern, with a significant decreasing trend of both the daily maximum and minimum temperature, during the cool season, and an increasing trend during the warm season. On an annual basis, there seems to be almost no temporal trends in minimum and maximum temperatures since the changes in winter and summer show an opposite tendencey. Received November 30, 1998 Revised May 27, 1999     

On the Spatial Distribution of the Daily Maximum Hourly Ozone Concentrations in the Athens Basin in Summer

Summary  From a network of nine stations measuring hourly-average values of ozone concentrations within the Athens basin it was found that the highest values of such concentrations occur in the summer months, i.e. June, July and August. For this season, the daily variation of the hourly values of ozone concentrations was determined by applying the “Box and Whiskers” method. A well-marked daily variation with the maximum occurring in the early afternoon was found at all stations, although hourly concentrations exhibit considerable differences among the stations. Finally, an attempt was made to investigate the characteristics of the spatial distribution of the daily maximum values of the ozone concentrations in summer within the basin by applying the method of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Two significant components, E1 and E2 were found to account for 52.9% and 21.6% of the variability of the original data. The spatial distributions resulting from these components indicate that the lowest values occur at the centre of the city and that the highest gradients of the ozone concentrations occur towards the Northeast and the Northwest suburbs. For the second component, E2, the gradient is definitely higher toward the Northeast. Also, in all stations that are not sited at the northern residential areas, the values in E2 are lower than the respective averages while in E1 they are higher. Received June 20, 1997/Revised May 28, 1999     

城市庭院小气候特征季节变化初探

通过对低纬城市－－昆明城市庭院内的草地、屋顶和道路的气象观测资料的比较分析，研究了庭院内不同下垫面的小气候变化规律和差异特征。昆明地区不同下垫面气象要素均具有与大气候相近的变化趋势，平均最高气温最大值出现在干季后期；气温日较差干季大，雨季小。相对湿度雨季大，变化小；干季小，变化大。风速以干季较大；雨季数值小，变化也小等年变化特征。比较不同下垫面的气象要素值得出，由于受下垫面和测点附近环境影响，与草地相比，屋顶和道路的最高气温高，最低气温低，气温日较差较大，相对湿度低，风速大，其差异表现为干季大、雨季小。     

Surface ozone measurements in the Venezuelan tropical savannah

A one-year set of surface ozone measurements in a four-station network located in the Venezuelan savannah is reported. The diurnal ozone variation is typical of continental stations with a maximum in the afternoon, when vertical turbulent mixing is strongest. The annual O₃ average concentration, based on the monthly averages of daily maxima, was 17±2 ppb, which is in good agreement with values reported for similar latitudes. The boundary-layer ozone levels did not fall below 8 ppb, in contrast with previous sporadic measurements made in tropical latitudes. No evidence was found that mesoscale O₃ downdrafts in the ITCZ in the South American continent are an important source of surface ozone. Finally, it is suggested that the relatively high ozone levels observed at the end of the dry season are probably of photochemical origin.