一种基于进化策略的气象学反问题求解算法研究

数值天气预报准确性直接取决于好的预报模式和初始场。在预报业务中,依赖观测数据调整初始场和模式参数属气象上的反问题。通过对模式参数识别和初始场调整问题进行等价转化,提出了一种基于进化策略的气象学反问题求解算法。在一维扩散方程和Lorenz-96简单预报模式进行了两类理想数值试验,试验结果表明经过优化后的预报误差均控制在非常小的范围内且预报稳定,从而验证了方法的有效性。     

基于遗传算法的四维变分资料同化技术的研究

将遗传算法应用于四维变分资料同化问题,提供一种新的较为有效的数值预报初始场优化方法,给出了相应的理论依据和详细算法,并结合变分问题本身的特点,设计合理的遗传编码、遗传操作和遗传参数.同时,以二维的浅水方程模式为例建立基于遗传算法的变分同化模型,并从多方面与伴随模式变分同化方案进行分析比较.数值试验结果表明,基于遗传算法的变分同化方案取得了比较满意的同化效果.     

用变分法修正黑河试验数据的初步研究

为了对黑河试验观测资料进行订正,利用一个一维边界层垂直扩散模式和以拟牛顿极小化算法为基础的最优化方法建立了一个变分同化系统,其中,目标函数相对于控制变量的梯度用扰动法求取.并利用模式资料和黑河试验若干时刻的观测资料进行了一些数值试验.试验证明,将初始场变量与模式误差系数同时作为控制变量加以调整,能够有效调整初始场观测资料.并且,用变分同化方法能够较线性插值(时间、空间)方法更有效、合理的修正黑河试验观测资料场的种种缺陷.     

可降水量同化对初始湿度场调整的应用研究

设计了一个三维变分同化方案,利用非静力中尺度模式MM5和由实况观测反演得到的可降水量资料,运用该变分同化方法改善初始湿度场,并对2003年7月9～10日的暴雨过程进行数值模拟对比试验.结果表明,①可降水量资料的变分同化对初始湿度场具有较强的调整能力;②同化可降水量后,可以明显地改善模式初始湿度场,能够有效地提高降水模拟的准确率.     

基于进化方向遗传算法的四维变分资料同化方法

数值天气预报模式初始时刻要素场的变分同化问题是一个非线性最优化问题。利用进化方向遗传算法（EDGA）求解该最优化问题，并对理想初始场作数值模拟，结果表明模拟的效果较好。     

具约束条件的四维变分资料同化问题

考察了具约束条件的四维变分资料同化问题，首先引入解决该类问题的一般理论与方法，然后用有限元浅水模式对具高频重力波约束条件的四维变分同化问题进行数值试验。采用伴随技术方法和约束最优化的罚函数法和增广拉格朗日方法，使定义的约束目标函数达到最小，而得到最优解。数值试验结果表明：以控制重力波增长为约束条件的四维变分资料同化，能够更有效的滤除扰动分量，得到最优初始场。由此也表明了对数值天气预报中的这类问题是可以用具约束条件的四维变分资料同化来处理。     

变分四维同化方法若干问题的数值试验

资料误差和模式误差都可能影响变分四维同化的结果,针对这一问题利用浅水方程模式进行了变分四维同化的数值模拟试验。试验分三种情况进行：（１）仅修正初始场,（２）仅修正模式;（３）二者同时修正。试验结果表明,当模式有误差时,传统的变分四维同化方法（仅修正初始场）可能将模式的误差混淆到初始场中去,尽管在同化期间可得到较好的拟合,但却不一定能保证同化后有好的预报。如果不修正初始场而修正模式,当模式误差不大时     

单多普勒雷达资料在伴随模式同化系统中的应用研究

利用变分方法反演单多普勒雷达资料,得到风矢量场。同时,利用MM5伴随模式同化系统,结合一次暴雨过程,设计四种方案,进行数值模拟试验。结果表明,通过变分方法反演的雷达资料的应用对于暴雨的分布预报有明显的改善作用;运用伴随方法同化雷达资料后可改善对暴雨中心的预报;对于各个物理量误差的减少,雷达资料的应用也起到重要作用,尤其是对于风场作用较为明显;雷达资料的应用可加快伴随模式同化系统目标函数的收敛,得到最优初始场。     

一阶有限元浅水模式的变分资料同化

一阶有限元浅水方程的伴随模式应用于气象资料同化场,并利用最优化方法对具有随机扰动的初始场进行优化处理。通过极小化算法,使所定义的目标函数达到最小,从而得到的最优的气象要素初始场。数值试验结果表明这种处理是很有效的。     

基于模式约束三维变分技术的连续循环同化试验研究

由于模式约束三维变分同化技术中考虑了模式的动力和物理过程,因此能保证各物理量间的平衡关系,从而滤除由于观测资料引入导致的高频波动,减小模式与初始场的协调时间.由于能在较短时间调整到稳定状态,采用模式约束三维变分同化进行连续循环同化可用较少的计算量达到同化多时次的多种观测资料的目的.该研究利用模式约束三维变分技术,针对2006年"桑美"台风个例,进行了连续循环同化卫星云导风、QuikSCAT海面风、Bogus海平面气压的试验.在台风数值预报中往往需要使用经验构造的台风信息(如Bogus海平面气压,Bogus风场等),该研究采用了模式约束三维变分同化技术同化Bogus海平面气压.由于模式约束三维变分同化技术充分考虑了各物理量间的约束,因此通过同化Bogus海平面气压也调整了初始场中相应的高度场、温度场、风场等变量,使得初始场中的台风涡旋具有较强的协调性,提高了对台风的模拟能力.采用AVN模式6小时间隔的分析场作为侧边界,2006年8月8日20时的分析场作为初估场,文中对8月8日20时到9日05时"桑美"台风的观测资料进行了连续循环同化.采用连续循环同化后台风路径的模拟精度得到了显著提高,对台风降水结构等的模拟也得到了改善.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on