大气模式估算的东亚区域人为硫酸盐和黑碳气溶胶辐射强迫及其时间变化特征

本文利用大气环流模式及大气化学模式所得气溶胶资料,估算了相对1850s时期硫酸盐和黑碳气溶胶引起的全球及东亚区域人为辐射强迫,重点分析其在东亚区域的季节和长期变化特征.结果表明,就当前全球年平均全天空而言,人为硫酸盐气溶胶对大气顶的直接和云反照率强迫分别为-0.37和-0.98 W·m-2,黑碳气溶胶对大气顶和整层大气的辐射强迫值为0.16和0.47 W·m-2;中国东部区域是目前上述气溶胶辐射强迫最强的区域,硫酸盐的直接和间接辐射强迫分别超过-2.0和-4.0 W·m-2,黑碳对大气顶和整层大气的直接辐射强迫分别可达2.0和5.0W·m-2;估算的东亚区域上述气溶胶辐射强迫仍在不断增强,峰值预计出现在2010s时段,而且中国东部较强的辐射强迫还可能维持至2030s左右;在未来中、高排放情景下,东亚区域以上两种气溶胶预计对全球气溶胶辐射强迫有更大的贡献.分析还表明,夏季东亚区域较强的水汽会增强吸湿性硫酸盐气溶胶的光学厚度和晴空直接辐射强迫;云的作用一方面会强化东亚区域全天空条件下大气顶黑碳的辐射强迫,另一方面会影响硫酸盐气溶胶间接云反照率强迫的季节变化;上述气候特征的差异使得东亚区域的气溶胶辐射强迫表现出与欧美区域有所不同的特征.本文所用的气溶胶资料与模式气象场的偏差会给气溶胶辐射强迫计算带来一些不确定性,进一步改进气候模式中气溶胶过程、水汽和云等气象场的模拟将有助于获得更为合理的区域气溶胶辐射强迫估算结果.     

东亚地区矿物尘气溶胶直接辐射强迫的初步模拟研究

为研究东亚地区矿物尘气溶胶的直接辐射效应,在区域气候模式RegCM3中加入起尘方案、建立矿物尘气溶胶输送模式,并将其辐射过程加入区域气候模式的辐射方案.通过对2001年3月～2002年3月的模拟发现：中国西北和蒙古国年平均地表起尘率在1μg/(m2·s)以上,最大达到90μg/(m2·s)是东亚地区最主要的矿物尘气溶胶源地;东亚地区矿物尘气溶胶柱含量最大值达5g/m2,出现在塔克拉玛干沙漠和秦岭地区;气溶胶大气顶直接辐射强迫基本呈现大陆上为正、海洋上正负均有的分布特征,区域平均辐射强迫在春夏秋冬分别为108, 088, 037,040W/m2,短波辐射强迫在陆上为正、海上正负均有,长波辐射强迫均为正值;四季的地表辐射强迫分别为-564, -225, -137, -187W/m2;辐射强迫数值对矿物尘气溶胶单次散射反照率的变化较敏感.     

中国不同排放情景下人为气溶胶的气候效应

本文利用区域气候模式RIEMS2.0(Regional Integrated Environmental Model System)和2006年以及2020年三种排放情景下的排放资料,研究了2006年气候背景下的人为气溶胶的浓度分布特征及辐射效应,估算了未来不同排放情景下人为气溶胶的主要成分硫酸盐、硝酸盐、黑碳、有机碳(含二次有机碳)的综合气候效应.结果表明:(1)2006年中国地区人为气溶胶浓度硫酸盐>有机碳>硝酸盐>黑碳,其区域柱浓度平均值分别为6.0、4.0、1.3和0.3 mg/m².(2)2006年硫酸盐、硝酸盐、有机碳和黑碳的平均辐射强迫分别为-1.32、-0.60、-0.40和0.28 W/m².硫酸盐、硝酸盐和有机碳的负辐射强迫超过黑碳的正辐射强迫,人为气溶胶总辐射强迫为-1.96 W/m².(3)人为气溶胶的辐射效应及引起的地面气温变化对排放源非常敏感,未来采取不同排放政策导致的人为气溶胶的含量及辐射效应有较大差异.在未来排放增加的情景下,各区域的气溶胶浓度、辐射强迫、气温下降幅度和降水减少幅度也相应加大.     

气溶胶表面上SO_2的非均相氧化过程

建立了一个可溶性气溶胶表面上SO_2氧化的非均相化学模式,分析了影响SO_2在气溶胶表面上氧化的各因子的作用.结果表明,气溶胶浓度及其成分,SO_2的初始浓度,H_2O_2的初始浓度和相对湿度是影响SO_2在气溶胶表面上氧化的主要因子.最后把该模式引入欧拉型硫沉降模式,讨论了非均相化学过程在区域硫沉降过程中的作用.气溶胶表面非均相化学过程的引入可使SO_2的近地面浓度降低5%～33%,SO_4~(2-)的近地面浓度增加8%～50%.     

N2O增加对大气环境影响的模拟及其与甲烷和平流层水汽影响的比较

本文利用美国国家大气环境中心(NCAR)的二维化学、辐射和动力相互作用的模式(SOCRATES),模拟了大气中N₂O增加对O₃和温度的影响,并从化学、辐射和动力过程讨论了影响原因,此外还与大气甲烷和平流层水汽增加对大气环境的影响进行了对比.分析表明:大气中N₂O浓度增加以后,将通过化学过程引起30 km以上O₃损耗,30~40 km损耗较多;30 km以上降温明显,下平流层中低纬度地区以及对流层O₃增加并有微弱升温;30~40 km附近,北半球中高纬地区O₃减少以及降温幅度都大于南半球.对流层升温主要是N₂O和O₃增加所致,而平流层温度变化主要受O₃控制.北半球中高纬地区动力过程对温度变化的反馈较其它地区明显,这种反馈对平流层中高层北半球中高纬地区温度和O₃的变化都有明显影响.大气中甲烷增加引起的O₃损耗在45 km以上,45 km以下O₃增加.平流层水汽增加会引起40 km以上O₃减少,20~40 km大部分地区O₃增加.N₂O增加造成的O₃损耗正好位于臭氧层附近,其排放对未来O₃层恢复至关重要.N₂O增加引起下平流层15~25 km中低纬度地区有弱的升温,这与其它温室气体增加对该地区温度的影响不同,CO₂,CH₄和H₂O等增加后下平流层通常是降温.     

夏季中国西部地区辐射特征的观测分析和能量收支的模式计算

在2000年6-7月新疆阜康地区野外观测资料和美国宇航局Goddard地球观测系统资料同化系统计算相应时间能量收支基础上分析了夏季我国西部干旱地区辐射特征和能量收支.新疆阜康地区观测的夏季中午平均吸收辐射为664 W/m2左右,反照率为17%,夜间长波净辐射值为60W/m2左右.模式计算的相应地区的辐射特征与观测结果相当接近.模式计算结果表明,夏季新疆、甘肃西部、内蒙一带为感热通量高值区,其最大值在华北、东北地区,其值可达300W/m2.广大西北地区潜热通量都很低,其高值区在华东、华南、西藏东部和四川一带,最大值可达250-300W/m2.     

我国大陆地区和近海海域能量收支分布及其季节变化的数值模拟研究

应用美国宇航局Goddard地球观测系统四维资料同化系统、计算了我国大陆地区和近海海域1998年各月月平均能量收支各项和10m气温、比湿及风矢量的地理分布特征. 模式计算结果表明,地表短波净辐射最强出现在夏季(7月)新疆和西藏中部地区,高值中心区可达275W/m2,在黄海东海海域春季(4月)最大,其值为250W/m2左右. 地表长波净辐射最强出现在夏季(7月)我国西北地区,中心区值为125W/m2,我国近海海域在冬季(1月)最强,其值为75-100W/m2. 我国近海海面,冬季(1月)潜热通量值高于一般月份,中心区值可达250W/m2,夏季我国大陆西南、华北和东北一带为潜热通量高值区,其值为125W/m2. 月平均能量收支计算结果显示,在黄海、东海海域冬季(1月)净通量为海洋向大气输送,夏季(7月)则反之,新疆和西藏高原中部夏季为净通量正值区. 综合温度、湿度和风矢量场分布发现,夏季从南海向华东地区,孟加拉湾向印度次大陆有明显的水汽平流输送,西藏西南部也有来自西南方向的水汽输送.     

大气污染对北京冬季城市和郊区辐射收支影响的观测分析

近年来城市化和大气污染对辐射收支的影响日益显著.本研究利用2013—2014年中国科学院大气物理研究所325m铁塔、南郊观象台、密云气象塔、上甸子区域大气本底站四个观测站点的辐射及自动站气象要素数据,采用南郊观象台的能见度资料将观测数据分为清洁天和污染天,并进行类比分析,以1月份为例,研究了北京地区大气污染和城郊差异对辐射收支的影响.结果表明:(1)从月平均值来看,各站污染天入射短波辐射均小于清洁天,衰减最大可达55.8W·m~(-2),直接辐射亦然,衰减最大可达161.1W·m~(-2),散射辐射相反,增加最大值为72.2W·m~(-2);长波辐射污染天大于清洁天,向下向上长波辐射增加最大值分别为85.0 W·m~2和70.0 W·m~(-2),且长波辐射的衰减与污染物浓度和大气温度相关;净辐射白天污染天小于清洁天,夜间相反.(2)从各站的对比可知,大气污染对入射短波辐射的衰减,南部郊区(13.2%)大于北部城区(7.4%),与北京地区"南北两重天"的污染物分布特征一致;且污染物对长短波辐射的影响呈现了从城区到郊区衰减率依次减小的现象.本研究为大气污染与气象条件的相互作用研究提供了观测基础.     

大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布条件下的气候模拟

利用现有大气本底站的大气CO₂浓度观测信息,综合考虑不同经济区划与土地覆盖类型对应的CO₂浓度差异及其季节变化规律,构建模式区域内以月为单位的网格化大气CO₂浓度非均匀动态分布数据模型.由此数据模型驱动RegCM4-CLM3.5区域气候模式运行,对东亚区2000年3月—2009年2月之间的气候变化特征进行了模拟,进而对大气CO₂浓度非均匀动态分布可能引起的区域气候效应进行了初步研究.结果表明:目前气候模式中CO₂浓度的常态均匀分布假设可能将温室效应夸大了10%左右.对大气CO₂浓度非均匀动态分布影响气温变化的可能机制进行研究表明:CO₂的自身效应(改变大气透射率)并不是导致Exp2试验温度降低的主要原因.大气CO₂浓度的变化影响了大气与植物胞间CO₂分压差,陆地植被通过改变气孔阻力适应这种变化,气孔阻力的变化直接影响到植物与大气间水分的交换,这种作用一方面通过蒸发冷却改变环境温度,另一方面,蒸发水分改变了近地面层湿度,进而水汽扩散到空中影响低云的分布.冬季,植物处于非生长季,对大气CO₂浓度变化响应微弱,湿度和低云变化不明显;夏季,植物生长旺盛,由CO₂生理学强迫激发的云反馈效应强烈,其效果是使中低云趋于增加,进而减弱了到达对流层低层的太阳短波辐射,造成温室效应减弱.     

青藏高原地区气溶胶的时空分布特征及其辐射强迫和气候效应的数值模拟

利用美国的SAGEⅡ全球月平均格点卫星资料, 对青藏高原地区的大气气溶胶状况进行了分析. 分析表明高原上空平流层大气气溶胶的光学厚度在冬季最大, 春、秋季次之, 夏季最小, 存在明显的季节振荡现象. 然后利用MM 5模拟了气溶胶的辐射强迫状况, 结果表明, 相对于设置均一的背景气溶胶而言, 青藏高原地区的辐射强迫均为正值. 高原上地面土壤温度和地面气温均有所增加, 增加的量级相当, 但增幅略小. 高原上500 hPa处的气温也有所增加, 增幅比地面气温的增幅更小, 但仍处于同一个量级.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of aerosol distribution over Tibetan Plateau and numerical simulation of radiative forcing and climate response

In this paper we have analyzed aerosol distribution over the Tibetan Plateau by using the global monthly mean satellite data of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II). The results are as follows: (1) Stratospheric aerosol optical depth can oscillate in the four seasons. It means that the aerosol optical depth is the thickest in winter and a little thinner in spring and the thinnest in summer and then a little thicker in autumn. We have found that the oscillation is caused by the oscillation of tropopause in different seasons. (2) Stratospheric aerosol comes mainly from sprays of volcano. After eruption of Mount Pinatubo aerosol optical depth in stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau increases 10 times compared with before. (3) The characteristic of aerosol vertical distribution over the Tibetan Plateau is that there is an extremely high value at the altitude of 70 hPa. The most interesting thing is that the extremely high value can oscillate between 50 hPa and 100 hPa. We have verified that the oscillation is a unique characteristic over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing it with South China and North China. Then the radiative forcing and regional climate response over the Tibetan Plateau of aerosol are investigated. We have discovered such things as followed by: (1) The radiative forcing is positive because the parameterized aerosol optical depth is less than 0.14 which is the optical depth of the uniform background boundary aerosol layer. It is 0–3 W/m² in January and 0–4 W/m² in April and less than 3 W/m² in July and 3–6 W/m² in October. (2) Ground temperature rises 0.1–0.2 K in October which is the biggest increasing magnitude, and 0.01–0.02 in July which is the smallest one. It rises about 0.05-0.01 K in January and April. (3) Air temperature near the earth’s surface and the one at the altitude of 500 hPa rise too, but the increasing magnitude is less than the former one.

     

The present-day and future impact of NOx emissions from subsonic aircraft on the atmosphere in relation to the impact of NOx surface sources

The effect of present-day and future NO_x emissions from aircraft on the NO_x and ozone concentrations in the atmosphere and the corresponding radiative forcing were studied using a three-dimensional chemistry transport model (CTM) and a radiative model. The effects of the aircraft emissions were compared with the effects of the three most important anthropogenic NO_x surface sources: road traffic, electricity generation and industrial combustion. From the model results, NO_x emissions from aircraft are seen to cause an increase in the NO_x and ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and a positive radiative forcing. For the reference year 1990, the aircraft emissions result in an increase in the NO_x concentration at 250 hPa of about 20 ppt in January and 50 ppt in July over the eastern USA, the North Atlantic Flight Corridor and Western Europe, corresponding to a relative increase of about 50%. The maximum increase in the ozone concentrations due to the aircraft emissions is about 3-4 ppb in July over the northern mid-latitudes, corresponding to a relative increase of about 3-4%. The aircraft-induced ozone changes cause a global average radiative forcing of 0.025 W/m² in July. According to the ANCAT projection for the year 2015, the aircraft NO_x emissions in that year will be 90% higher than in the year 1990. As a consequence of this, the calculated NO_x perturbation by aircraft emissions increases by about 90% between 1990 and 2015, and the ozone perturbation by about 50-70%. The global average radiative forcing due to the aircraft-induced ozone changes increases by about 50% between 1990 and 2015. In the year 2015, the effects of the aircraft emissions on the ozone burden and radiative forcing are clearly larger than the individual effects of the NO_x surface sources. Taking chemical conversion in the aircraft plume into account in the CTM explicitly, by means of modified aircraft NO_x emissions, a significant reduction of the aircraft-induced NO_x and ozone perturbations is realised. The NO_x perturbation decreases by about 40% and the ozone perturbation by about 30% in July over Western Europe, the eastern USA and the North Atlantic Flight Corridor.     

地磁场Z分量的年变化

利用河北省及邻区共８个台的绝对磁测Ｚ分量的资料,分析了地震磁场Ｚ分量的年变化。结果是,曲线相对长斜线而言,一年中形成两个峰值,时间在４月份和１０月份前后。前年１、７、１２月份为低值,７月份最低。相对长斜线的年变量大幅度各台变化不大,有从南往北逐渐加大迹象,但是各台的年变化幅度又随时间而有较大差异。主伙同时间里各台Ｚ分量的变化差异,主要是各地长期变化速率不同引起的。认识了地磁场Ｚ分量这些变化特征和规     

On the regional climatic impact of contrails: microphysical and radiative properties of contrails and natural cirrus clouds

The impact of contrail-induced cirrus clouds on regional climate is estimated for mean atmospheric conditions of southern Germany in the months of July and October. This is done by use of a regionalized one-dimensional radiative convective model (RCM). The influence of an increased ice cloud cover is studied by comparing RCM results representing climatological values with a modified case. In order to study the sensitivity of this effect on the radiative characteristics of the ice cloud, two types of additional ice clouds were modelled: cirrus and contrails, the latter cloud type containing a higher number of smaller and less of the larger cloud particles. Ice cloud parameters are calculated on the basis of a particle size distribution which covers the range from 2 to 2000 m, taking into consideration recent measurements which show a remarkable amount of particles smaller than 20 m. It turns out that a 10% increase in ice cloud cover leads to a surface temperature increase in the order of 1K, ranging from 1.1 to 1.2K in July and from 0.8 to 0.9K in October depending on the radiative characteristics of the air-traffic-induced ice clouds. Modelling the current contrail cloud cover which is near 0.5% over Europe yields a surface temperature increase in the order of 0.05 K.     

Regional variability in dust‐on‐snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Dust deposition onto mountain snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin frequently occurs in the spring when wind speeds and dust emission peaks on the nearby Colorado Plateau. Dust loading has increased since the intensive settlement in the western USA in the mid 1880s. The effects of dust‐on‐snow have been well studied at Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the San Juan Mountains, CO, the first high‐altitude area of contact for predominantly southwesterly winds transporting dust from the southern Colorado Plateau. To capture variability in dust transport from the broader Colorado Plateau and dust deposition across a larger area of the Colorado River water sources, an additional study plot was established in 2009 on Grand Mesa, 150 km to the north of SBBSA in west central, CO. Here, we compare the 4‐year (2010–2013) dust source, deposition, and radiative forcing records at Grand Mesa Study Plot (GMSP) and Swamp Angel Study Plot (SASP), SBBSA's subalpine study plot. The study plots have similar site elevations/environments and differ mainly in the amount of dust deposited and ensuing impacts. At SASP, end of year dust concentrations ranged from 0.83 mg g^?1 to 4.80 mg g^?1, and daily mean spring dust radiative forcing ranged from 50–65 W m^?2, advancing melt by 24–49 days. At GMSP, which received 1.0 mg g^?1 less dust per season on average, spring radiative forcings of 32–50 W m^?2 advanced melt by 15–30 days. Remote sensing imagery showed that observed dust events were frequently associated with dust emission from the southern Colorado Plateau. Dust from these sources generally passed south of GMSP, and back trajectory footprints modelled for observed dust events were commonly more westerly and northerly for GMSP relative to SASP. These factors suggest that although the southern Colorado Plateau contains important dust sources, dust contributions from other dust sources contribute to dust loading in this region, and likely account for the majority of dust loading at GMSP. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial,inter and intra‐annual variability of the Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall

In this study, monthly and annual Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall data were analyzed to learn the rainfall statistics and its temporal and spatial distribution. Frequency analysis and spatial characterization of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin are presented. Frequency analysis was performed on monthly basin rainfall. Monthly basin average rainfall data were computed from a network of 32 gauges with varying lengths of records. Monthly rainfall probability distribution varies from month to month fitting Gamma‐2, Normal, Weibull and Log‐Normal distributions. The January, July, October and November basin rainfall fit the Gamma‐2 probability distribution. The February, June and December ones fit Weibull distribution. The March, April, May and August rainfall fit Normal distribution. The September rainfall fits Log‐Normal distribution. Upper Blue Nile Basin is relatively wet with a mean annual rainfall of 1423 mm (1960–2002) with a standard deviation of 125 mm. The annual rainfall has a Normal probability distribution. The 100‐year‐drought basin annual rainfall is 1132 mm and the 100‐year‐wet basin annual rainfall is 1745 mm. The dry season is from November through April. The wet season runs from June through September with 74% of the annual rainfall. October and May are transition months. Monthly and annual rainfalls for return periods 2‐, 5‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐ and 100‐year dry and wet patterns are presented. Spatial distribution of annual rainfall over the basin is mapped and shows high variation with the southern tip receiving as high as 2049 mm and the northeastern tip as low as 794 mm annual average rainfall. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.