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1.
Global climate change during the twentieth century had a significant impact on the glaciers that resulted in creation of new lakes and expansion of existing ones, and ultimately an increase in the number of glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs) in the Himalayan region. This study reports variation of the end-moraine dammed lakes in the high altitude Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya(HKH) region of Pakistan to evaluate future floods hazard under changing climate in this region. An integrated temporal remote sensing and Geographic information system(GIS) based approach using satellite images of Landsat-7 and 8 was adopted to detect 482 endmoraine dammed lakes out of which 339 lakes(0.02 km2) were selected for temporal change analysis during the 2001-2013 period. The findings of the study revealed a net expansion in the end-moraine dammed lakes area in the Karakoram(about 7.7%) and in the Himalayas(4.6%), while there was a net shrinkage of about 1.5% in the lakes area in the Hindukush range during this period. The percentage increase in the lakes' area was highest above 4500 m asl in the Hindukush, within 3500-4000 m asl in the Himalayas and below 3500 m asl in the Karakoram range. The overall positive change in the lakes' area appears to prevail in various altitudinal ranges of the region. The heterogeneous areal changes in the endmoraine dammed lakes might be attributed to different climate regimes and glacial hydrodynamics in the three HKH ranges. A periodic monitoring of the glacial lakes and their associated glaciers is essential for developing effective hazard assessment and risk reduction strategies for this high altitude Himalayan region.  相似文献   

2.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(3):624-640
Assessment of climate and land use changes impact including extreme events on the sediment yield is vital for water and power stressed countries. Mangla Reservoir is the second-largest reservoir in Pakistan, and its capacity is being reduced due to rapid sedimentation and will be threatened under climate and land use changes. This paper discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on sediment yield at Mangla Dam using General Circulation Models(GCMs), Land Change Modeler(LCM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model after calibration and validation.Results show that over the historical period temperature is observed to increase by 0.10 o C/decade and forest cover is observed to reduce to the level of only 16% in 2007. Nevertheless, owing to the forest conservation policy, the forest cover raised back to 27% in 2012. Anticipated land use maps by using LCM of 2025, 2050 and 2100 showed that the forest cover will be 33%, 39.2%, and, 53.7%, respectively. All seven GCMs projected the increase in temperature and five GCMs projected an increase in precipitation,however, two GCMs projected a decrease in precipitation. Owing to climate change, land use change and combined impact of climate and land use change on annual sediment yield(2011-2100) may vary from-42.9% to 39.4%, 0% to-27.3% and,-73%to 39.4%, respectively. Under climate change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with extreme events and is expected to increase with the increase in extreme events. Under land use change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with the forest cover and is expected to decrease with the increase in forest cover. The results of this study are beneficial for planners, watershed managers and policymakers to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes to enhance reservoir life by reducing the sediment yield.  相似文献   

3.
Land use changes such as deforestation,increase in cropping or grazing areas and built-up land, likely modify the water balance and land surface behavior in the Himalayan watersheds.An integrated approach of hydrological and hydraulic modeling was adopted for comparative analysis of hydrological pattern in three Himalayan watersheds i.e.Khanpur,Rawal and Simly situated in the Northern territory of Pakistan.The rainfall-runoff model SWAT- Soil and water assessment tool and Hydro CAD were calibrated for the selected watersheds.The correlation analysis of the precipitation data of two climate stations i.e.Murree and Islamabad, with the discharge data of three rivers was utilized to select best suitable input precipitation data for Hydro CAD rainfall-runoff modeling.The peak flood hydrograph were generated using Hydro CAD runoff to optimize the basin parameters like CN, runoff volume, peak flows of the three watersheds.The hydrological response of the Rawal watershed was studied as a case study to different scenarios of land use change using SWAT model.The scenario of high deforestation indicated a decline of about 6.3% in the groundwater recharge tostream while increase of 7.1% in the surface runoff has been observed under the scenario of growth in urbanization in the recent decades.The integrated modeling approach proved helpful in investigating the hydrological behavior under changing environment at watershed level in the Himalayan region.  相似文献   

4.
基于GMS的玉符河人工补源影响研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
为探究济南市玉符河人工补源对趵突泉泉域的影响,在系统分析泉域水文地质条件的基础上,采用地下水数值模拟软件GMS10.0建立了2012—2014年覆盖趵突泉泉域的地下水流数值模型,通过模型对玉符河补源实施后地下水的径流方向、影响面积以及对泉水位和西郊水源地水位的提升作用进行评估。结果表明:玉符河补源在实际渗漏量为10.52×10~4m~3/d的情况下,玉符河补源水首先沿着炒米店地堑由南向北流,然后再向东、西方向径流。补源后第177 d,补源影响范围基本抵达四大泉群,玉符河补源的最大影响范围为485.79 km~2。玉符河补源对趵突泉、黑虎泉的最大影响水位为0.06 m和0.04 m;对济南西郊水源地的水位起到明显的提升作用,最大值达到0.57m。西郊水位的抬升可以缓解地下水开采对趵突泉水位的影响,减小保泉的压力,也为将来济南百姓重新喝上优质地下水奠定了基础。  相似文献   

5.
This paper attempts to assess the vulnerability to climate change of human communities in selected mouzas of Sagar Island,South 24 Parganas District of India. A primary household survey has been conducted to collect data on socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategy, health, food, water, social network, natural disaster and climate variation indicators, were selected for Livelihood Vulnerability Index(LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(LVI-IPCC) analyses to measure and compare the vulnerability of mouzas(administrative unit) currently suffering from frequent flooding, coastal erosion and embankment breaching on an annual basis. Secondary data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department, the Water Resources Information System of India and the Global Sea Level Observing System have been used to identify dynamics of climate change by employing statistical and Geographic Information System(GIS) techniques. A GPS survey has been conducted to identify locations of embankment breaching, and satellite images obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and U.S. Geological Survey(NASA USGS) Government website have been applied to shoreline and land use change detection, using a supervised maximum likelihood classification. The results indicate that the study area has experienced increasing temperature, changing precipitation patterns, rise in sea level, higher storm surges, shoreline change, constant land loss, embankment breaching and changing land use, which have had impact on vulnerability, particularly of poorer people. The LVI(0.48 to 0.68) and LVI-IPCC(0.04 to 0.14) scores suggest that the populations of Dhablat, Bankimnagar, Sumatinagar, Muri Ganga and Sibpur mouzas are highly vulnerable(LVI scores of 0.60 to 0.68 and LVI-IPCC scores of 0.11 to 0.14) to climate change both because the communities are more exposed to it, and because poor access to food, health facilities and water makes them extremely sensitive to it and lowers their adaptive capacity. The findings of this study could be crucial to framing further development and adaptation strategies relating to climate change, and to safeguarding the estuarine ecosystem and the vulnerable population.  相似文献   

6.
The chemical composition of several thermal springs around Changbaishan area has been investigated.Cenozoic basaltic rocks are widely distributed in Northeast China and geothermal characteristics have been described.About one hundred hot springs exist around Changbaishan Volcano at the border between China and D.P.R.Korea with high temperature about 82℃. The pH values of the spring water range from 6.9 to 7.1 and the total flow rate is about 4.8 L /sec. The chemical composition of the thermal springs is sodium carbonate; the high-mineral contents of thermal water are believed to have medicinal properties. Bathhouses are already built along the hot springs to take the advantage of the supposed healing properties. The high quality of those hot springs is believed to be utilitized for mineral water. The chemical equilibrium temperatures were estimated at about 160℃ based on the Na-K-Ca geochemical thermometer.  相似文献   

7.
受自然环境和技术方法制约,青藏高原岩溶发育演化和岩溶地下水循环特征研究相对薄弱,制约了青藏高原碳酸盐岩区的经济发展、民生设施建设和地质灾害防治。通过野外地质测量,岩溶地下水、地表水和大气降水水化学和同位素特征分析,泉水流量动态,水均衡计算和物探等技术方法,系统分析了四川省康定市北郊碳酸盐岩分布区的岩溶发育特征,识别了岩溶径流通道和岩溶大泉主要补给来源。结果表明:康定市北郊碳酸盐岩分布于高山峡谷地貌类型区,可溶岩地层分布、岩溶发育程度和岩溶水补给、径流、排泄均受构造控制,可溶岩与非可溶岩接触带和活动断裂附近的岩溶发育程度较强。岩溶水呈管道流径流,主要以岩溶大泉形式集中排泄,泉流量约1.5×104 m3/d且动态较为稳定。通过水文地质条件分析,识别出研究区存在通化组岩溶水径流带和雅拉河断裂岩溶水径流带。水化学-同位素数据、岩溶泉流量动态和水均衡计算结果显示,雅拉河河水是岩溶大泉的主要补给源,岩溶地下水主要沿雅拉河断裂岩溶水径流带径流并集中排泄。   相似文献   

8.
Mountain ecosystems are relatively more vulnerable to climate change since human induced climate change is projected to be higher at high altitudes and latitudes. Climate change induced effects related to glacial response and water hazards have been documented in the Himalayas in recent years, yet studies regarding species’ response to climate change are largely lacking from the mountains and Himalayas of Nepal. Changes in distribution and latitudinal/altitudinal range shift, which are primary adaptive responses to climate change in many species, are largely unknown due to unavailability of adequate data from the past. In this study, we explored the elevational distribution of butterflies in Langtang Village Development Committee (VDC) of Langtang National park; a park located in the high altitudes of Nepal. We found a decreasing species richness pattern along the elevational gradient considered here. Interestingly, elevation did not appear to have a significant effect on the altitudinal distribution of butterflies at family level. Also, distribution of butterflies in the area was independent of habitat type, at family level. Besides, we employed indicator group analysis (at family level) and noticed that butterfly families Papilionidae, Riodinidae, and Nymphalidae are significantly associated to high, medium and low elevational zone making them indicator butterfly family for those elevational zones, respectively. We expect that this study could serve as a baseline information for future studies regarding climate change effects and range shifts and provide avenues for further exploration of butterflies in the high altitudes of Nepal.  相似文献   

9.
泉水出露受到多种因素影响,在传统地质勘查手段之外,各种模型方法及影响因子预测手段,也被越来越多地应用于泉水的研究中。本文尝试利用机器学习的方法进行泉水出露位置的预测研究。根据北京市野外调查,确定了1378个测试样本点,选取了高程、坡度、坡向、地形湿度指数、径流强度指数、距河流距离、距断裂距离、岩性、归一化植被指数及土地利用类型作为影响因子,对比了2种机器学习方法(随机森林模型、分类回归树模型)和地统计方法(证据权重模型)的预测效果。研究发现:随机森林模型的预测效果最好(Area Under Curve, AUC=0.86),分类回归树和证据权重模型效果相当(AUC分别为0.81、0.80);随机森林模型同时揭示,岩性、距断裂距离和距河流距离这3个影响因子对泉潜在出露的影响最大。本研究表明,在强烈人类活动影响下机器学习方法仍然具有较好的泉水出露预测能力,有望为泉水保护、恢复提供新的技术方法。  相似文献   

10.
明水泉群为我国北方罕见的岩溶大泉,具有典型的雨源型特征。大气降水和雨洪水下渗后,向明水一带汇集,受西部文祖断层阻挡而富集,受上覆煤系地层阻隔而承压,在特定的构造条件下,沿断层破碎带或人工钻孔涌出地表,便形成明水泉群。煤系地层是明水泉群形成和存在的基本地质条件之一。煤矿开采吸引大量岩溶泉水,而且破坏原生的地质结构,影响明水泉群的正常出流,危及明水泉群的存在。针对煤矿开采对明水泉群的影响,建议实施相应保泉措施。  相似文献   

11.
人口增长、气候变化、制度变迁、城市化等均会导致土地利用/覆被的变化,进而引起流域水文过程(截留、入渗、蒸散发和地下水补给等)和水循环过程的改变。当前,由于逐年土地利用/覆被数据获取困难、水文模型本身计算缺陷等问题,所有在流域尺度上开展的借助水文模型进行的土地利用/覆被变化影响下的水文模拟研究都存在一个共同缺点,就是采用的水文模型并不能逐年调用土地利用/覆被数据,即水文模型无法真实体现或模拟土地利用/覆被的时空变化。SWAT作为一个广泛应用的分布式水文模型,在其模拟期内,不能逐年调用土地利用/覆被数据,即在进行水文模拟时忽略了土地利用/覆被时间上的变化,这可能会影响其在土地利用/覆被变化剧烈地区(如黑河中游)的应用。黑河流域是典型的内陆河流域,也是中国西北地区第二大内陆河流域。黑河中游是黑河流域的径流耗散区。本文针对SWAT模型在考虑土地利用/覆被变化时的缺点,对其进行了改进并开发出能够逐年调用土地利用/覆被数据的LU-SWAT模型。在土地利用/覆被变化剧烈的黑河中游对SWAT和LU-SWAT模型的径流模拟效果进行比较,发现LU-SWAT模型更适用于黑河中游水循环模拟。  相似文献   

12.
With trends indicating increase in temperature and decrease in winter precipitation, a significant negative trend in snow-covered areas has been identified in the last decade in the Himalayas. This requires a quantitative analysis of the snow cover in the higher Himalayas. In this study, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model, an artificial neural network (ANN), was deployed to predict the snow cover in the Kaligandaki river basin for the next 30 years. Observed climatic data, and snow covered area was used to train and test the model that captures the gross features of snow under the current climate scenario. The range of the likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow was assessed in the Himalayas using downscaled temperature and precipitation change projection from - HadCM3, a global circulation model to project future climate scenario, under the AIB emission scenario, which describes a future world of very rapid economic growth with balance use between fossil and non-fossil energy sources. The results show that there is a reduction of 9% to 46% of snow cover in different elevation zones during the considered time period, i.e., 2Oll to 2040. The 4700 m to 52oo m elevation zone is the most affected area and the area higher than 5200 m is the least affected. Overall, however, it is clear from the analysis that seasonal snow in the Kaligandaki basin is likely to be subject to substantialchanges due to the impact of climate change.  相似文献   

13.
基于CSR发布的GRACE时变重力场模型RL05数据,在频域上计算得到2002~2014年喜马拉雅山冰川质量变化。扣除GIA和水文模型影响后,喜马拉雅地区的冰川质量变化整体上呈现加速消融的趋势,消融速率约为-8.26±4.61 Gt/a,加速度约为-3.54±1.25 Gt/a2。  相似文献   

14.
岩溶含水层中的地下水是重要的可饮用水来源, 由于其复杂的水文地质特征, 采用数值模型分析和评价含水层中地下水环境极具挑战性。采用变饱和度流动方程描述含水层基质中的饱和-非饱和流动, 采用管道流方程描述岩溶管道中的层流及紊流流动, 基于流动解采用对流弥散方程分别描述基质与管道中的溶质迁移过程。根据相关实验数据以及MODFLOW-CFP程序的模拟结果对流动模拟的准确性进行验证, 并基于此开展了岩溶管道以及非饱和参数对地下水流动及污染物迁移影响的模拟。结果显示, 数值模型能很好地重现含水层中饱和区与非饱和区以及岩溶管道的地下水动态, 岩溶管道对含水层的渗流场产生了较大的影响。管道中快速流动的特性使得周围的水向其中汇集, 影响了局部流动场, 进而使得泄露的污染物质随水流进入管道, 快速向管道出口处(泉点)迁移, 突破曲线显示管道出口处的污染物浓度响应速度远快于基质中对应的位置, 非饱和参数对管道中污染物浓度的响应速率有着不同程度的影响。建立的模型完善了岩溶含水层中非饱和区地下水流动、污染物运移以及基质-管道流动与溶质运移耦合模拟等方面的工作, 加深了对岩溶含水层地下水动力学以及污染物迁移过程的认识, 对岩溶水文地质及地下水环境等方面具有重要意义。   相似文献   

15.
The coastal zone is an area characterized by intense interaction between land and sea, high sensitivity to regional environmental changes, and concentrated human activities. Little research has investigated vegetation cover changes in coastal zones resulting from climate change and land-use change, with a lack of knowledge about the driving mechanism. Normalized diff erence vegetation index(NDVI) can be used as an indicator for change of the coastal environment. In this study, we analyzed the interannual changes and spatial distribution of NDVI in the coastal zone around Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao, a coastal city undergoing rapid urbanization in northeast China. The underlying causes of NDVI variations were discussed in the context of climate change and land-use change. Results showed that the spatio-temporal distribution of NDVI displayed high spatial variability in the study area and showed a typical trend of gradually increasing from coastal to inland regions. The significant increase area of NDVI was mainly found in newly added construction land, extending along the coastline towards the inland. Land vegetation cover demonstrated a certain response relationship to sea-land climate change and land-based activities. The impact of land-based human activities was slightly greater than that of sea-land climate change for land vegetation cover. The results indicate that promoting ecological policies can build an ecological security framework of vegetation suitable for the resource characteristics of coastal cities. The framework will buf fer the negative ef fects of sea-land climate change and land-based human activities on vegetation cover and thereby achieve the balance of regional development and ecological benefits in the coastal zone.  相似文献   

16.
本文以济南市泉水补给区为研究对象,利用GIS空间分析方法,在其景观变化分析的基础上,参照中国陆地生态系统的生态服务价值系数,估算了泉水补给区生态服务功能价值变化,重点分析景观变化对研究区生态服务功能的影响,进而为区域可持续发展和城市建设提供理论支持。结果表明:(1)20世纪90年代以来,泉水补给区耕地和草地景观面积呈减少趋势,林地、园地和建设用地景观面积大幅增加,其中,以林地面积增加最大;从景观类型转化看,耕地与其他景观类型相互转化较为密切,特别是与建设用地和园地之间的转化;林地面积的增加主要来源于草地和耕地;(2)泉水补给区生态服务功能价值主要由林地和耕地景观生态服务价值构成,其变化对该研究区生态服务价值变化起决定作用;从生态服务价值构成类型来看,该地区土壤形成与保护服务功能单项价值所占比重最大,约占总服务功能价值的20%;(3)90年代以来,该地区总生态服务价值呈增加趋势;从单项服务价值变化来看,水源涵养、废物处理和食物生产服务功能价值则呈现出减小趋势,其中,以水源涵养减幅最大,为4.01%,主要是由该区建设用地增加,地面硬化面积增多而引起的。研究认为,济南市南部山区作为重要的泉水补给区,其生态服务功能尤为重要,特别是水源涵养功能,因此,研究区水源涵养服务功能价值的降低应在今后南部山区开发过程中得到足够的重视与保护,逐步增加泉水补给区的整体生态效益。  相似文献   

17.
River runoff is affected by many factors, including long-term effects such as climate change that alter rainfall-runoff relationships, and short-term effects related to human intervention(e.g., dam construction, land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)). Discharge from the Yellow River system has been modified in numerous ways over the past century, not only as a result of increased demands for water from agriculture and industry, but also due to hydrological disturbance from LUCC, climate change and the construction of dams. The combined effect of these disturbances may have led to water shortages. Considering that there has been little change in long-term precipitation, dramatic decreases in water discharge may be attributed mainly to human activities, such as water usage, water transportation and dam construction. LUCC may also affect water availability, but the relative contribution of LUCC to changing discharge is unclear. In this study, the impact of LUCC on natural discharge(not including anthropogenic usage) is quantified using an attribution approach based on satellite land cover and discharge data. A retention parameter is used to relate LUCC to changes in discharge. We find that LUCC is the primary factor, and more dominant than climate change, in driving the reduction in discharge during 1956–2012, especially from the mid-1980 s to the end-1990 s. The ratio of each land class to total basin area changed significantly over the study period. Forestland and cropland increased by about 0.58% and 1.41%, respectively, and unused land decreased by 1.16%. Together, these variations resulted in changes in the retention parameter, and runoff generation showed a significant decrease after the mid-1980 s. Our findings highlight the importance of LUCC to runoff generation at the basin scale, and improve our understanding of the influence of LUCC on basin-scale hydrology.  相似文献   

18.
晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的GIS综合评价   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
生态环境脆弱性评估可以为退化系统的综合整治提供策略依据。晋北地区作为我国北方农牧交错带的组成部分,在自然和人为因素的综合作用下,表现出脆弱性的特征。本文利用空间主成分分析和层次分析法,结合遥感数据和地理信息系统技术,评价了晋北地区生态环境的脆弱性。结果表明:在自然和人为因素综合作用下,晋北地区生态环境脆弱性呈现不平衡的空间分布特征,东北部重,西南部轻。极度和重度脆弱区主要分布在东北部,占整个研究区面积的33.1%;微度和中度脆弱区主要分布在西南部,占41.9%;轻度脆弱区在整个研究区几乎均有分布,占24.9%。轻度和中度脆弱区占整个研究区面积的55.5%。总体来看,晋北地区大部分区域处于中度和轻度脆弱性水平。自然因素是晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的主导因素,人为因素是其脆弱性变化的关键外在因素。影响晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的自然因素主要有干旱、NDVI、水土流失比率;人为因素主要有土地利用、第二产业占GDP比重、环保投资指数、水资源量。研究结果为晋北地区合理调控人类活动,保护和治理生态环境提供一定的依据。  相似文献   

19.
利用2000-2014年MOD10A2积雪产品和数字高程模型DEM数据,以积雪覆盖率为指标,在分析西藏高原积雪空间分布特点的基础上,定量研究了高程、坡度和坡向等地形要素对高原积雪时空分布的影响。主要结论有:① 西藏高原积雪的空间分布差异显著,具有中东部念青唐古拉山和周边高山积雪丰富,覆盖率高,而南部河谷和羌塘高原中西部积雪少,覆盖率低的特点。② 海拔越高积雪覆盖率越高,积雪持续时间越长,年内变化越稳定。海拔2 km以下积雪覆盖率不足4%,海拔6 km以上覆盖率达75%。海拔4 km以下年内积雪覆盖呈单峰型分布特点,海拔越高,单峰型越明显;而海拔4 km以上则为双峰型,海拔越高,双峰型越明显。海拔6 km以下积雪覆盖率最低值出现在夏季,而6 km以上则出现在冬季。③ 总体上,高原地形坡度越高积雪覆盖率越高。不同坡向中,北坡积雪覆盖率最高,南坡最低,年内分布呈双峰型,而无坡向的平地积雪覆盖率要小于有坡向的山地,其年内变化呈单峰型分布特点。  相似文献   

20.
为推动乌蒙山贫困缺水区生态环境建设、地下水资源合理利用,以昭通市作为重点调查区,基于地质调查、泉流量统计、水质检测,展开岩溶地下水富集规律及物探找水方法的研究。结果表明:①研究区岩溶地下水系统以条带岭谷型、埋藏型为主。条带岭谷型岩溶地下水系统以现代岩溶为主,目标含水层多、发育深度有限、岩溶发育及富水程度差异大,富水块段为背斜核部及两翼、向斜核部、断层影响带;埋藏型岩溶地下水系统以古岩溶为主,目标含水层单一、发育深度较深且极不均匀,富水块段为断陷谷盆埋藏的古岩溶。②地下水化学类型以HCO3型、HCO3·SO4型为主,条带岭谷型、埋藏型岩溶水分别占96.73%,92.93%,水质总体较好,综合水质评价Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水占比分别为80.84%,64.41%。③建议对>50 L/s大泉进行提引、丰储冬用,对富水块段进行综合物探探测和钻探验证的方法找水。④综合物探找水方法:先通过高密度电法、联合剖面法查明岩溶破碎带及断层,再激电测深确定极化率高的含水层,最后综合测井和钻孔揭露确定具体出水段及涌水量,找水成功率为86.67%,适用于条带岭谷型及浅埋岩溶地下水。   相似文献   

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