地震空区的定量判据

在中国，孕震空间已经比较广泛地应用于地震预报的实践，并多次取得实际预测强震的效果。但经过系统震例研究发现，利用孕震空间预报地震的虚报漏报率比较高。本文运用解决临界相变问题的重正化群方法所求出的孕震空间区可能发生失稳破裂，导致强震发生的判据对孕震空间的危险性作出进一步鉴别，并用突变论方法求解尖拐空变方程，预测孕震空区未来发生强震的时间和震级，并进一步确定孕震空区的危险性。对２６个中国大陆强有的孕震空     

Seasonal variations in coastal debris on Awaji Island, Japan

The subject of our study was Awaji Island, an island located in the west of Japan that is surrounded by sea and that has serious problems relating to coastal debris. We conducted a long-term investigation focusing on three beaches and evaluated the results. The study was designed to develop an understanding of the actual situation, to inform local citizens, and raise their concerns about the problem of debris with a view to taking action against it. We obtained the following results: the amount, type, and ratio of debris changed according to weather and ocean conditions; debris also differs according to geographical conditions; social and economic activities of the surrounding area influence the type of debris encountered. Following this study, we have continued our investigation, and are continuing to gather data. At the same time, it is important to spread our ideas and enlighten people so as to encourage them not to dump debris. We hope that these actions manage to raise the level of consciousness among local citizens and to expand their anti-debris activities.     

Data use and information creation: challenges for marine scientists and for managers

In the coastal waters of European countries and in the offshore waters of the north-east Atlantic, there is an increasing need for scientists to meet challenging objectives, such as to identify meaningful measures of 'quality', and to recommend 'indicators' to underpin implementation of directives, conventions, statutes and other more informal national and international initiatives. Those indicators may relate to particular species or habitats, to changes in physical and chemical characteristics, and even to the use to which the system is put. The problems to be overcome are difficult, but new and developing approaches will make a significant contribution. The approaches include: criteria to identify 'sensitivity' and 'importance', structures to organise information and electronic information resources to access data.The real challenge is to make the results of the various scientific initiatives relevant to and understandable by a wide range of customers with similar overlapping requirements, and thus make a genuine contribution to protecting the marine environment. Above and beyond that is the need for scientists to drive the agenda to enable real and lasting progress to be made towards ecosystem-based management of our seas and a proper consideration of what 'sustainability' may mean in the marine environment and how we utilise its resources.     

我国科学数据共享现状的调查

本文是科学数据共享政策法规体系研究系列文章的收笔之作.撰写本文的目的,就是为说明科学数据共享政策法规体系的研究是建立在大量的基础调研之上.调查研究是谋事之基、成事之道.从实践中寻求解决现实问题的方法,才能制定出切实可行的政策、法规,调查研究是制定政策、法规的客观依据.为使制订政策、 规章制度适应社会经济发展和变化的新情况,就深入开展调查研究,认真听取各方面的意见,深入研究相应的管理规律和运行机制.本文详述了调查过程、调查方法,以佐证政策法规研究不能脱离实际.     

Joint simulation of transmissivity and storativity fields conditional to steady-state and transient hydraulic head data

The self-calibrated method has been extended for the generation of equally likely realizations of transmissivity and storativity conditional to transmissivity and storativity data and to steady-state and transient hydraulic head data. Conditioning to transmissivity and storativity data is achieved by means of standard geostatistical co-simulation algorithms, whereas conditioning to hydraulic head data, given its non-linear relation to transmissivity and storativity, is achieved through non-linear optimization, similar to standard inverse algorithms. The algorithm is demonstrated in a synthetic study based on data from the WIPP site in New Mexico. Seven alternative scenarios are investigated, generating 100 realizations for each of them. The differences among the scenarios range from the number of conditioning data, to their spatial configuration, to the pumping strategies at the pumping wells. In all scenarios, the self-calibrated algorithm is able to generate transmissivity–storativity realization couples conditional to all the sample data. For the specific case studied here the results are not surprising. Of the piezometric head data, the steady-state values are the most consequential for transmissivity characterization. Conditioning to transient head data only introduces local adjustments on the transmissivity fields and serves to improve the characterization of the storativity fields.     

提高台站短水准则量成果精度的几项措施

结合清原地震台台站水准1985年前后观测成果精度的变化，总结了提高台站短水准观测成果精度的几点主要成功措施。它们是：选择最佳视线长度；拓宽线路、增高视线、减弱折光影响；改造仪器站条件；固定观测时间和人员；确定好观测光段。     

尼泊尔8.1级地震对中国西藏地区造成的震害特征分析

2015年4月25日尼泊尔发生8.1级地震,对我国西藏地区造成较大人员伤亡与房屋破坏,道路、通讯等生命线工程及水利等基础设施损坏严重。本文介绍了本次地震的基本情况,并在现场地震烈度调查和地震损失评估的基础上,对灾区震害进行了分析,给出了灾区房屋类别与破坏情况以及生命线系统与各行业的受损情况。通过分析此次地震的灾害特点,指出了灾区在抗震设防中存在的问题,并提出加大地震地质灾害的防治力度,科学编制恢复重建规划,加强防震减灾宣传,提高农牧民抗震设防意识,加强农牧区房屋建筑的指导和监管等建议,以减少地震造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,促进西藏地区经济和社会的和谐发展。     

Integrated assessment for establishing an oil environmental vulnerability map: Case study for the Santos Basin region,Brazil

The growth of maritime transport and oil exploitation activities may increase the risk of oil spills. Thus, plans and actions to prevent or mitigate impacts are needed to minimize the effects caused by oil. However, tools used worldwide to support contingency plans have not been integrated, thus leading to failure in establishing priority areas. This investigation aimed to develop indices of environmental vulnerability to oil (IEVO), by combining information about environmental sensibility to oil and results of numerical modeling of spilled oil. To achieve that, a case study concerning to oil spills scenarios in a subtropical coastal area was designed, and IEVOs were calculated and presented in maps, in order to make the information about the areas’ vulnerability more easily visualized. For summer, the extension of coastline potentially affected by oil was approximately 150 km, and most of the coastline presented medium to high vulnerability. For winter, 230 km coastline would be affected, from which 75% were classified as medium to high vulnerability. Thus, IEVO maps allowed a rapid and clearer interpretation of the vulnerability of the mapped region, facilitating the planning process and the actions in response to an oil spill.     

Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams

Hydrologic risk analysis for dam safety relies on a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall-runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated in order to evaluate the probability of dam overtopping. Typically, parametric density estimation methods have been applied in this setting, and the exhaustive Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) of models is used to derive some of the distributions. Often, the distributions used to model some of the random variables are inappropriate relative to the expected behaviour of these variables, and as a result, simulations of the system can lead to unrealistic values of extreme rainfall or water surface levels and hence of the probability of dam overtopping. In this paper, three major innovations are introduced to address this situation. The first is the use of nonparametric probability density estimation methods for selected variables, the second is the use of Latin Hypercube sampling to improve the efficiency of MCS driven by the multiple random variables, and the third is the use of Bootstrap resampling to determine initial water surface level. An application to the Soyang Dam in South Korea illustrates how the traditional parametric approach can lead to potentially unrealistic estimates of dam safety, while the proposed approach provides rather reasonable estimates and an assessment of their sensitivity to key parameters.     

利用接收函数计算地壳各向异性的可靠性分析及倾斜界面的影响*

使用接收函数研究壳幔速度间断面和速度结构已是常用的技术,但介质各向异性或倾斜的莫霍(Moho)界面,都会造成接收函数波形的复杂性。本文利用远震P波接收函数计算台站下方的地壳各向异性,通过信噪比测试和谐波分析两种方法来验证各向异性结果的可靠性。通过甘肃地震台网的两个台站记录,讨论各向异性和倾斜界面对接收函数的影响,结果显示,台站BYT(白银)下方具有各向异性,而台站WYT(渭源)下方由于可能存在倾斜界面,得到的各向异性结果则有待进一步分析。为了更好地认识倾斜界面对各向异性计算结果的影响,采用合成理论地震图,计算接收函数,然后利用合成接收函数进行各向异性分析。结果表明,计算得到的快波方向不会受到倾斜界面的影响,但是时间延迟会受到影响。     

A model for assessing and managing the risks of environmental lead emissions

In response to recent activity and legislation concerning lead and its role in electric vehicle development, a model has been developed to assess the health risks to residents from environmental lead emissions. This model may be used to predict the risks to residents in the vicinity of facilities discharging lead into the air. This model is also important for risk management, allowing for risk-based regulations regarding limits on lead emissions. The model is comprehensive, linking together a source term, air dispersion model, household exposure model, physiologically-based pharmakokinetic blood-lead model, and a determination of reference dose. Parameters are treated as distributions, and are considered either uncertain or variable. A range of physiological and behavioral parameters are used to distinguish between various age and gender groups, to reflect the variability in risk of adverse effect to these subsets of the exposed population. A sensitivity study is performed, including a case considering the uncertainty in reference dose which is compared to the case of a deterministic reference dose. Different types of variability are investigated, the variability across sensitive sub-populations of age and gender, and the individual variability within these populations. We found that the differentiation between uncertainty and variability in predicting non-cancer risk human health risk was important, and that methods that combined uncertainty and variability were not expected to be protective to sensitive individuals within a sub-population.     

Sensitivity analysis of two-dimensional steady-state aquifer flow equations. Implications for groundwater flow model calibration and validation

This paper presents the analytical properties of the sensitivity of the two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater flow equation to the flow parameters and to the boundary conditions, based on the perturbation approach. These analytical properties are used to provide guidelines for model design, model calibration and monitoring network design. The sensitivity patterns are shown to depend on the nature of both the perturbed parameter and the variable investigated. Indeed, the sensitivity of the hydraulic head to the hydraulic conductivity extends mainly in the flow direction, while the sensitivity to the recharge spreads radially. Besides, the sensitivity of the flow longitudinal velocity to the hydraulic conductivity propagates in both the longitudinal and transverse directions, whereas the sensitivity of the flow transverse velocity propagates in the diagonal directions to the flow. The analytical results are confirmed by application examples on idealized and real-world simulations. These analytical findings allow some general rules to be established for model design, model calibration and monitoring network design. In particular, the optimal location of measurement points depends on the nature of the variable of interest. Measurement network design thus proves to be problem-dependent. Moreover, adequate monitoring well network design may allow to discriminate between the possible sources of error.     

一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统

介绍了震前地声的历史记载以及震前地声的产生机制和特征．还有如何利用震前地声观测结果对地震发震的三要素进行预测。并针对震前地声监测所存在的问题、困难和发展趋势,提出了一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统,该系统可详尽、完整地记录震前地声的强度、频度、频谱,并可通过在地震易发区域的大规模密集布点,组成这一区域的震前地声监测网络,以监测大地震孕育过程,以及对大地震的三要素进行预测预报。     

Monitoring of structural systems by using frequency data

The present work evaluates the possibility of using dynamic data to assess structural integrity. It addresses the problem of understanding when it is sufficient to measure and use only natural frequencies, thus avoiding the need to measure modal shapes. The classic problem of detecting damage in beams, or beam assemblies, due to concentrated cracks, or damage spread over a structural member is dealt with. Damage is represented as a decrease in stiffness and linear behaviour before and after the event assumed to have caused damage is considered. Damage is restricted to a few unknown sections or elements, so that only the modification of few parameters of the system need to be determined. This study thus rejects assumptions unrelated to the physical aspects of the problem, in contrast to many papers on the subject. The amount of data to locate and quantify damage correctly is discussed; general considerations lead to the conclusion that a unique and reliable estimate of the damage can be obtained using only few additional frequency data with respect to the number of damaged zones. Continuous and discrete (finite element) models are examined. Finally the paper considers the applications to both analytical and experimental data of the procedure developed, which takes account of the peculiar characteristics of damage detection problem. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earthquake loss estimation for Greater Cairo and the national economic implications

The Egyptian economy and culture are centralized in the Greater Cairo region. Thus, it is essential that the built environment is able to withstand the possible earthquake events that may occur, and to continue to operate and function. Failure to do so would result in significant economic losses. This study presents the latter stages of a multi-tiered probabilistic earthquake loss estimation model for Greater Cairo and builds upon previous studies of the seismic hazard. In order to assess possible damage to the built environment, and the resulting economic losses, the vulnerability of the built environment is first evaluated. Through the use of satellite images, Egypts building census, previous studies and field surveys, a building-stock inventory is compiled. This building inventory is classified according to structural type and height, and is geocoded by district. Using existing fragility curves, the vulnerability of the building stock is assessed. In addition, the vulnerability of both the electricity and natural gas networks are assessed, through the use of fragility curves, cut sets and an evaluation of the supply networks. Based on the assessment of direct losses, the losses associated with building damage far exceed those associated with the considered network infrastructure. A macro-economic model is developed that takes into account damage to the built environment and provides estimates of indirect economic losses, as well as enabling the identification of the optimal recovery process. Using this model, it is shown that the indirect losses can exceed direct losses for extreme scenarios where the economy is brought to a near standstill. The framework developed and presented herein can be extended to include more networks, and is also applicable to other regions.     

高频GNSS实时地震学与地震预警研究现状

为实现从注重灾后救助向注重灾前预防转变,如何提高地震灾害监测预警和风险防范能力成为我们关注的重点.本文给出了国际上GNSS位移记录、强震动加速度记录、测震速度记录在地震预警中的应用现状,并总结了各自的特点,归纳出围绕高频GNSS地震学在震级与破裂过程实时反演中的几个需要进一步研究的关键问题：（1）引入北斗系统,基于高频GNSS（GPS/BDS）双系统的实时位移解算方法来提高实时单站位移解算精度,使实时解算精度达到厘米级;（2）开展强震仪加速度记录基线偏移校正研究,弥补地震近场GNSS站密度不足问题;（3）强震仪加速度记录与GNSS位移记录特点不同,开展强震仪加速度数据与GNSS位移数据实时融合处理研究,快速获得包含丰富地震形变和速率的波形数据;（4）测震学方法可快速估算震级,但是在强震发生时会出现震级饱和现象,造成震级估算偏低.需要开展基于GNSS位移时间序列的多种方法相结合的实时震级估算方法研究,通过与地震学方法比较和结合,来得到精度高、计算快的震级估值算法;（5）基于高频GNSS、断层初始模型快速选取、断层尺度、参数自适应调整是快速判断断层破裂方向的基础,在断层破裂过程自适应准实时反演算法方面需要进一步加强.通过国内外研究现状调研、分析,表明基于高频GNSS地震学的震级快速确定、震源破裂过程准实时反演算法的发展将对我国地震预警系统从"二网融合"到"三网融合"提供坚实的技术支撑.     

ESTIMATING SEDIMENT PRODUCTION IN A LARGE WATERSHED / Évaluation de la production en sédiments d'un grand bassin versant

Abstract

Estimates of average annual sediment production in the 4,560 square mile Umpqua River basin in southwest Oregon were developed to assess impacts of land condition, use, and management in the watershed on quality of the water produced. Specific attention was given to channel bankcutting, scour, and deposition; to signs of erosion on the land, occurrence of landslides, and effects of cultivation, timber harvest, grazing, and road construction. Sediment production was estimated and ratings given each tributary drainage in five classes: slight, low, moderate, high, and very high; corresponding to average sediment loads of less than 50 ppm, 50 to 150 ppm, 150 to 500 ppm, 500 to 1500 ppm, and over 1500 ppm carried by the average annual flow. Areas and rating were checked against measured sediment loads, allowing for the fact that the sampling did not include the infrequent high flows which carry a disproportionate share of total sediment load.

Information on geology was available for half the basin; on soil characteristics for a fifth of the area, including some of the forested mountain land. Aerial photo coverage was complete. Suspended load sampling at ten stations, done at two-week intervals for the preceding five years, furnished a fair indicator of sediment movement. Soils and geology information included erodibility and slump and slide hazard indices, and was used to guide field ratings and to extend them to areas not visited. Aerial photographs were used for extrapolation to areas for which soils and geology had not been mapped.     

Analysis of thick, non-planar boundaries using the discontinuity analyser

The advent of missions comprised of phased arrays of spacecraft, with separation distances ranging down to at least mesoscales, provides the scientific community with an opportunity to accurately analyse the spatial and temporal dependencies of structures in space plasmas. Exploitation of the multi-point data sets, giving vastly more information than in previous missions, thereby allows unique study of their small-scale physics. It remains an outstanding problem, however, to understand in what way comparative information across spacecraft is best built into any analysis of the combined data. Different investigations appear to demand different methods of data co-ordination. Of the various multi-spacecraft data analysis techniques developed to affect this exploitation, the discontinuity analyser has been designed to investigate the macroscopic properties (topology and motion) of boundaries, revealed by multi-spacecraft magnetometer data, where the possibility of at least mesoscale structure is considered. It has been found that the analysis of planar structures is more straightforward than the analysis of non-planar boundaries, where the effects of topology and motion become interwoven in the data, and we argue here that it becomes necessary to customise the analysis for non-planar events to the type of structure at hand. One issue central to the discontinuity analyser, for instance, is the calculation of normal vectors to the structure. In the case of planar and ‘thin’ non-planar structures, the method of normal determination is well-defined, although subject to uncertainties arising from unwanted signatures. In the case of ‘thick’, non-planar structures, however, the method of determination becomes particularly sensitive to the type of physical sampling that is present. It is the purpose of this article to firstly review the discontinuity analyser technique and secondly, to discuss the analysis of the normals to thick non-planar structures detected in magnetometer data.     

塔里木盆地地球动力学演化与含油气系统旋回

论述了塔里木盆地的地球动力学演化过程,指出震旦-三叠纪和侏罗-第四纪是两个构造巨旋回．在这类旋回中,盆地经历了由伸展到聚敛的完整发育过程塔里木盆地的演化总体上表现为强伸展-聚敛-微伸展-强聚敛的特点盆地动力学旋回决定了油气的生运聚散过程．提出含油气系统旋口的概念．在分析寒武-奥陶系含油气系统旋回、石炭系-下二叠统含油气系统旋回和侏罗系含油气系统旋回的基础上,指出对含油气系统旋回的形成期与调整再分配期的研究更具实际意义．     

1980—2020年滇池生态脆弱性评价及主要驱动因子

人类活动的加剧和经济社会的发展导致滇池开发强度持续增加,滇池生态系统结构与功能受到严重影响,评估滇池的生态脆弱性程度与主要驱动因子是明晰滇池生态系统现状和问题、实现其精准治理和可持续发展的首要任务。基于“暴露程度—敏感程度—适应程度”模型(VSD模型),选取3个准则7个要素24个指标构建滇池生态系统脆弱性评估指标体系,利用逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)进行权重方案比选,并通过鲁棒性检验分析,确定计算权重的最优方案。通过分析1980—1989、1990—2009、2010—2020年这3个时间段滇池的生态脆弱性,识别出影响滇池生态系统的主要驱动因子,以期为滇池未来生态保护与修复方向的确定提供参考。结果显示,1980—2020年滇池生态脆弱性呈现先增加后降低的趋势,生态脆弱度最高的是1990—2009年(0.502),属于中度脆弱。影响滇池生态系统的主要因素为敏感程度指标,其次为暴露程度指标。在暴露程度方面,影响生态系统的主要驱动因子逐渐从单一的工业污染向工农业的复合污染转变,1980—1989年工业废水排放量为主要驱动因子,1990—2009年建设用地面积是主要胁迫因素,2010—20...