2016年内蒙古地区高温天气统计分析

文章使用常规气象观测资料及内蒙古119个区域站逐小时自动观测资料,对2016年内蒙古出现的日最高气温≥35℃的高温天气进行了统计分析。分析发现:全年有76个站出现≥35℃的高温天气587次,站点主要分布在阿拉善盟西部和中部、巴彦淖尔市西南部、乌海市、锡林郭勒盟中部和北部、赤峰市北部、通辽市北部、兴安盟东部以及呼伦贝尔市西南部;高温集中发生在7、8月份,日最高气温主要出现在15—17时;各站每日高温持续时间较长,持续6h的最多,最多的一天中可以持续15h。7月上旬和7月下旬到8月上旬高温持续时间长,范围广,强度强;极端高温天气事件突出表现为单日极端高温天气出现站多,单站持续高温时间长,单日超过37℃或40℃高温站次多;14个站日最高气温超过历史极值,9个站连续高温日数平历史极值。高温发生时地面减压,地面风速多在4m﹒s^(-1)以上,高于日平均风速。     

1961年以来海南岛降水变化趋势分析

应用趋势分析法和聚类分析法等方法分析了海南岛全岛各站点1961~2004年雨量和雨日分布特征及其变化规律。结果表明:全岛年降水主要集中在5~10月份;年均雨量最多在中部和东部沿海地区,其中琼中最高(2438.9mm/a);最少在西部沿海地区;不同等级降雨雨日分布与雨量基本一致。从年际变化看,全岛年雨量、旱期雨量、汛期雨量均呈增加的趋势;全岛平均年降雨日数、毛毛雨日数以及年最长持续降雨日数均呈逐渐减少的趋;而全岛多年平均年大雨日数、暴雨日数则呈逐渐增加的趋势。     

浙中北地区一种连续强对流天气分析

一、基本统计强天气标准为:雷暴大风——伴有雷暴的阵风≥17m/s或10分钟平均风速≥12m/s;强雨—1小时雨量≥20mm或2小时雨量≥30mm;冰雹。凡在区域内出现上述之一的称为一个强天气日,连续2天以上出现,则称为一次连续强天气。在1979—1987年3—10月共出现强天气日为102天,其中连续强天气为26次,占62天,约为总强天气日的60％多。表1可见在3—8月份的强天气出现数中有50％以上都将出现连续。连续2—3天的在3—9月都有可能出现。而4天以上则都出现在7月份。     

湖北省1994年夏季(6～8月)天气气候概况及其影响

湖北省1994年夏季天气比较炎热,出现四次最高气温≥35℃以上的酷热期,其日数比常年同期偏多,居建国以后第五位,平均气温比常年同期高,梅雨不明显,时间短,整个夏季降雨以过程性和阵性为主,干旱呈阶段性发展,局部地方有洪涝,总雨量大部地区偏少,部分县市出现大风灾害,天气气候对工农业生产比较有利。 1 四次高温酷热期,气温比常年同期高 由于今年夏季西太平洋副热带高压持续偏强,先后共出现四次最高气温在35℃以上的酷热天气。其时间分别是6月28日～7月11日,7月20日～23日,8月 1～6日,8月9～23日。极端最高气温鄂西南长江河谷地区在8月3～4日达到42℃,其他地区在7月3日出现39～40℃。≥35℃的高温日数鄂西南40天左右,武汉市、鄂东北、鄂东南在35天左     

北京奥运赛期温、湿、风、云、雨的气候信息分析

分析北京城近郊区奥运会赛场临近的气象台站(南郊观象台、朝阳站、海淀站、丰台站、石景山站)1995～2004年10年8月的气温、相对湿度、风向风速、低云量、降水量等5个气象要素的气候变化,结果表明:1)19～22日有2次阴雨天气过程,气温下降幅度较大;2)5个台站的主导风向是S-SE,逐日平均风速的峰值出现在16时(北京时间),其值为2.0～3.1m.s-1;3)白天各雨量等级合计≥35%的频率出现5天;4)奥运会开幕时间(2008年8月8日20时),晴天到少云的频率占90%,阴天为10%,无雨为80%。这种气候特点为奥运会组委会、参赛运动员和观众提供了赛场环境5个气象要素的日变化规律。同时,对于奥运会的短期气象服务也有一定的参考价值。     

北京雾和霾临界气象条件的气候变化特征

近年来北京市频繁遭受雾和霾天气的影响,表现为天数增多、持续时间增长的特点,这一变化越来越受到专家学者的重视。气象条件是雾和霾污染形成的客观因素。利用北京市观象台多年雾和霾天气(2013-2015年)和气象要素(1961-2015年)观测资料,从气候变化角度出发,研究雾和霾临界气象条件的气候变化特征。研究结果表明:对雾和霾的形成有促进作用的临界气象条件是日平均风速≤1.9 m/s,日相对湿度≥76%,偏南方向的风向;对雾和霾的形成有抑制作用的临界气象条件是日平均风速≥2.6 m/s,日相对湿度≤69%,日降水量≥0.5mm。1961-2015年北京市观象台低风速日数呈增加趋势,且多为西南方向,高风速日数呈减小趋势,污染物清除能力下降,对污染物的累积起关键性作用;相对湿度较高的日数呈减小趋势,相对湿度较低的日数呈增加趋势;日降水量较大的日数呈下降趋势。三种气象条件中相对湿度条件随年代的变化有利于雾和霾的消散,而风速风向和降水量条件随年代的变化不利于雾和霾的扩散和沉降。但有研究表明,在雾和霾污染的形成消散过程中,风速条件起决定性作用,故北京地区较低风速日数的增加是导致大气污染的重要原因。此外,不利的风向条件加重了北京地区污染物的积累聚集。     

肇庆市不同强度灰霾天气特征及气象因子分析

采用日均法对1980—2015年肇庆灰霾天气作分析,研究了不同强度灰霾天气的变化特征及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明:肇庆灰霾轻微等级出现的比例最大,和总灰霾日数的变化趋势非常一致,呈现上升趋势,近年来重度灰霾天气出现的频次增加。灰霾日数与风速、相对湿度的变化趋势呈反相关关系,受地面风速、逆温层的影响最明显。冬季大气中低层存在逆温层的概率高达93. 6%,风速偏弱,灰霾出现概率大。灰霾期间主导风向为NE,日雨量1 mm,地面平均风速1. 5m/s,比无灰霾出现时小。出现中度及以上灰霾天气时主导风向以偏东风为主,静风频率较高,平均风速低至1 m/s左右,日雨量0. 5 mm。重度灰霾污染天气发生时主要受弱偏东风场控制,低层有逆温,肇庆处于广州、佛山等城市的下风向,广州、佛山等地的污染物输送对肇庆的空气质量有一定的影响。     

黑龙江省气候变暖对极端天气气候事件的影响

黑龙江省1980年以来气候变暖已成为事实，气候变暖导致天气气候极端事件的发生，主要表现在：①大雨暴雨次数增加；②30℃以上极端最高气温平均日数下降；③-30℃以下极端最低气温平均日数明显减少；④初霜日平均后延2～5天；⑤终霜日，北部中部提前3～5天而南部延长；⑥夏季低温次数明显减少，北部减少多于南部；⑦大旱年次数增多，大涝次数北少南多，西南部地区为旱涝敏感区。     

1961年以来海南岛降水变化趋势分析

应用趋势分析法和聚类分析法等方法分析了海南岛全岛各站点1961～2004年雨量和雨日分布特征及其变化规律。结果表明：全岛年降水主要集中在5～10月份；年均雨量最多在中部和东部沿海地区，其中琼中最高（2438．9mm／a）；最少在西部沿海地区；不同等级降雨雨日分布与雨量基本一致。从年际变化看，全岛年雨量、早期雨量、汛期雨量均呈增加的趋势；全岛平均年降雨日数、毛毛雨日数以及年最长持续降雨日数均呈逐渐减少的趋；而全岛多年平均年大雨日数、暴雨日数则呈逐渐增加的趋势。     

水阳江洪峰与强降水

用1964－1999年水阳江水位和雨量资料，分析水阳江水位、面雨量变化规律和洪峰出现特征。结果表明，6月平均面雨量为241.5mm，7、8月平均面雨量分别为186.5mm、155.7mm。宣城出现13次超警戒水位过程；新河庄出现25次超警戒水位过程，且连续超警戒水位日数长。洪峰出现前一周为连阴雨天气，一周平均面雨量为164.5mm。季内日面雨量存在60天周期变化现象，新河庄日平均水位存在60－120天周期变化；1999年宣城日平均水位的小波分析结果为60天周期变化，与新河庄日平均水位功率谱分析结果一致。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.