基于信息扩散理论新疆气象灾害风险评估(英文)

Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.     

Climate change on the southern slope of Mt. Qomolangma （Everest） Region in Nepal since 1971

Based on monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 10 meteorological stations on the southern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region in Nepal between 1971 and 2009, the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic change in this region were analyzed using climatic linear trend, Sen＇s Slope Estimates and Mann-Kendall Test analysis methods. This paper focuses only on the southern slope and attempts to compare the results with those from the northern slope to clarify the characteristics and trends of climatic change in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The results showed that： （1） between 1971 and 2009, the annual mean temperature in the study area was 20.0℃, the rising rate of annual mean temperature was 0.25℃/10a, and the temperature increases were highly influenced by the maximum temperature in this region. On the other hand, the temperature increases on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma region were highly influenced by the minimum temperature. In 1974 and 1992, the temperature rose noticeably in February and September in the southern region when the increment passed 0.9℃. （2） Precipitation had an asymmetric distribution; between 1971 and 2009, the annual precipitation was 1729.01 mm. In this region, precipitation showed an increasing trend of 4.27 mm/a, but this was not statistically significant. In addition, the increase in rainfall was mainly concentrated in the period from April to October, including the entire monsoon period （from June to September） when precipitation accounts for about 78.9% of the annual total. （3） The influence of altitude on climate warming was not clear in the southern region, whereas the trend of climate warming was obvious on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma. The annual mean precipitation in the southern region was much higher than that of the northern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region. This shows the barrier effect of the Himalayas as a whole and Mt. Qomolangma in particular.     

过去300年大兴安岭北部气候变化特征（英文）

The Greater Khingan Mountains(Daxinganling) are China's important ecological protective screen and also the region most sensitive to climate changes. To gain an in-depth understanding and reveal the climate change characteristic in this high-latitude, cold and data-insufficient region is of great importance to maintaining ecological safety and corresponding to global climate changes. In this article, the annual average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration series were firstly constructed using tree-ring data and the meteorological observation data. Then, using the climate tendency rate method, moving-t-testing method, Yamamoto method and wavelet analysis method, we have investigated the climate changes in the region during the past 307 years. Results indicate that, since 1707, the annual average temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly and the sunshine duration decreased, with the tendency rates of 0.06℃/10 a, 0.79 mm/10 a and –5.15 h/10 a, respectively(P≤0.01). Since the 21 st century, the period with the greatest increase of the annual average temperature(also with the greatest increase of precipitation) corresponds to the period with greatest decrease of sunshine duration. Three sudden changes of the annual average temperature and sunshine duration occurred in this period while two sudden changes of precipitation occurred. The strong sudden-change years of precipitation and sunshine duration are basically consistent with the sudden-change years of annual average temperature, suggesting that in the mid-1860 s, the climatic sudden change or transition really existed in this region. In the time domain, the climatic series of this region exhibit obvious local variation characteristics. The annual average temperature and sunshine duration exhibit the periodic variations of 25 years while the precipitation exhibits a periodic variation of 20 years. Based on these periodic characteristics, one can infer that in the period from 2013 to 2030, the temperature will be at a high-temperature stage, the precipitation will be at an abundant-precipitation stage and the sunshine duration will be at an less-sunshine stage. In terms of spatial distribution, the leading distribution type of the annual average temperature in this region shows integrity, i.e., it is easily higher or lower in the whole region; and the second distribution type is more(or less) in the southwest parts and less(or more) in the northeast parts. Precipitation and sunshine duration exhibit complex spatial distribution and include fourspatial distribution types. The present study can provide scientific basis for the security investigation of homeland, ecological and water resources as well as economic development programming in China's northern borders.     

中国能源消费碳排放强度及其影响因素的空间计量(英文)

The sustainable development has been seriously challenged by global climate change due to carbon emissions. As a developing country, China promised to reduce 40%–45% below the level of the year 2005 on its carbon intensity by 2020. The realization of this target depends on not only the substantive transition of society and economy at the national scale, but also the action and share of energy saving and emissions reduction at the provincial scale. Based on the method provided by the IPCC, this paper examines the spatiotemporal dynamics and dominating factors of China's carbon intensity from energy consumption in 1997–2010. The aim is to provide scientific basis for policy making on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in China. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, China's carbon emissions increased from 4.16 Gt to 11.29 Gt from 1997 to 2010, with an annual growth rate of 7.15%, which was much lower than that of GDP(11.72%). Secondly, the trend of Moran's I indicated that China's carbon intensity has a growing spatial agglomeration at the provincial scale. The provinces with either high or low values appeared to be path-dependent or space-locked to some extent. Third, according to spatial panel econometric model, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization rate were the dominating factors shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of China's carbon intensity from energy consumption. Therefore, in order to realize the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction, China should improve the efficiency of energy utilization, optimize energy and industrial structure, choose the low-carbon urbanization approach and implement regional cooperation strategy of energy conservation and emissions reduction.     

未来情境下中国高温的人口暴露度变化及影响因素研究（英文）

Overall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat. Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature(HT) and extremely high temperature(EHT) in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃ and 40℃, respectively. Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future(i.e., 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2060–2081 and 2081–2100) were projected at the grid cell level in this study using daily maximum temperature based on an ensemble mean of 21 global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario and with a population projection based on the A2 r socio-economic scenario. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of population exposure was evaluated at different spatial scales including national and meteorological geographical divisions. Results show that, compared with population exposure seen during 1981–2010, the base period, exposure to HT in China is likely to increase by 1.3, 2.0, 3.6, and 5.9 times, respectively, over the four periods, while concomitant exposure to EHT is likely to increase by 2.0, 8.3, 24.2, and 82.7 times, respectively. Data show that population exposure to HT is likely to increase significantly in Jianghuai region, Southwest China and Jianghan region, in particular in North China, Huanghuai region, South China and Jiangnan region. Population exposure to EHT is also likely to increase significantly in Southwest China and Jianghan region, especially in North China, Huanghuai, Jiangnan, and Jianghuai regions. Results reveal that climate is the most important factor driving the level of population exposure in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Jiangnan regions, as well as in South and Southwest China, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. Data show that the climatic factor is also most significant at the national level, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. The rate of contribution of climate to national-level projected changes in exposure is likely to decrease gradually from ca. 70% to ca. 60%, while the rate of contribution of concurrent changes in both population and climate is likely to increase gradually from ca. 20% to ca. 40% over the four future periods in this analysis.     

基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文)

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approxi-mates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

1971-2000年青藏高原气候变化趋势

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi- ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini- mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen- erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten- tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta- neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

Economic development and energy efficiency in Jilin Province,China

The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is revealed by employing cointegration theory, the index decomposition method, and a log-linear regression approach based on a case study of Jilin Province, China. The results suggest： 1） the economic development and energy consumption are interdetermined, whose relationship is positive and long-term. The economic development is highly depending on the energy in Jilin Province. 2） Under the condition of other unchanged factors, the change of industrial energy efficiency contributes to the energy saving, while that of industrial structure increases the energy consumption. 3） The industrial structure change enhances the energy intensity, but the energy utility efficiency change lowers it. From the view of contribution to the energy consumption, the contribution of industrial structure was more than that of the energy utility efficiency in 2000-2011. 4） In 2000-2011, the comprehensive energy intensity change and hydroelectricity energy intensity change were related to all industrial structures＇ change, and the influencing factors about structure of oil energy intensity change were more than those of coal energy intensity change; from the impact degree, agricultural proportion decreased exerted an positive and greater effect on lowering the energy intensity of comprehensive energy and hydroelectricity, and industrial one did on coal and natural gas. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows： the major way to promote the coordinated development of the industrial economy and energy consumption is to optimize the industrial structure by increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry and low energy consumption industrial sectors and to enhance the energy utility efficiency.     

中国旅游业能源消耗与二氧化碳排放量估算(英文)

In 2009, nearly 900 million international tourist arrivals were counted worldwide. A global activity of this scale can be assumed to have a substantial impact on the environment. In this contribution, five major aspects such as the change of LUCC and the use of energy and its associated impacts had been recognized. Recently, the impact of tourism on environment and climate attracts the attention of international organizations and societies in pace with rapid development of tourism industry. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector are becoming a hot spot of international tourism research in recent five years. The use of energy for tourism can be divided according to transport-related purposes (travel to, from and at the destination) and destination-related purposes excluding transports (accommodation, food, tourist activities, etc.). In addition, the transports, accommodation and foods are related to many other industries which are dependent on energy. Thus, the estimations of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector have become a worldwide concern. Tourism in China grows rapidly, and the number of domestic tourists was 1902 million in 2009. Energy use and its impact on the environment increase synchronously with China’s tourism. It is necessary to examine the relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions. In this article, a preliminary attempt was applied to estimate the energy consumption and CO2 emissions from China’s tourism sector in 2008. Bottom-up approach, literature research and mathematical statistics technology were also adopted. According to the calculations, Chinese tourism-related may have consumed approximately 428.30 PJ of energy in 2008, or about 0.51% of the total energy consumptions in China. It is estimated that CO2 emissions from tourism sector amounted to 51.34 Mt, accounting for 0.86% of the total in China. The results show that tourism is a low-carbon industry and also a pillar industry coping with global climate change, energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction. Based on this, the authors suggested that tourism should become an important field in low-carbon economic development.     

中国地区植被对温度变化趋势的响应（英文）

Though many studies have focused on the causes of shifts in trend of temperature, whether the response of vegetation growth to temperature has changed is still not very clear. In this study, we analyzed the spatial features of the trend changes of temperature during the growing season and the response of vegetation growth in China based on observed climatic data and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) from 1984 to 2011. An obvious warming to cooling shift during growing season from the period 1984–1997 to the period 1998–2011 was identified in the northern and northeastern regions of China, whereas a totally converse shift was observed in the southern and western regions, suggesting large spatial heterogeneity of changes of the trend of growing season temperature throughout China. China as a whole, a significant positive relationship between vegetation growth and temperature during 1984 to 1997 has been greatly weakened during 1998–2011. This change of response of vegetation growth to temperature has also been confirmed by Granger causality test. On regional scales, obvious shifts in relationship between vegetation growth and temperature were identified in temperate desert region and rainforest region. Furthermore, by comprehensively analyzing of the relationship between NDVI and climate variables, an overall reduction of impacts of climate factors on vegetation growth was identified over China during recent years, indicating enhanced influences from human associated activities.     

Relationships between energy consumption and climate change in China

Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. It also goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumption and climate factor and between the socio-economic energy consumption and the economic level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.     

能源消费与气候关系的中美比较研究

应用多项式模型把气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨了中国和美国气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明:温度是美国近50年来影响气候耗能量的主要气候因子,中国从20世纪50年代到80年代初,旱涝灾害一直是影响中国气候耗能量的主要气候因子,它们之间存在有明显的线性相关关系,自20世纪80年代初以来,随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响明显减弱,温度对气候耗能量的影响逐渐增强,如果仅考虑气候耗能量,目前中国的能源消费变化正处于由气象灾害驱动型向温度驱动型的过渡时期。     

近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识

利用1953~2012年中国西南地区44个气象台站的逐日降水、温度资料,通过降水和潜在蒸发均一化旱涝指数,从旱涝的年代际、年际、季节内变化以及极端和持续性特征等方面进行了分析,结果表明：从旱涝的空间趋势变化来看,西南近60 a来秋季和年变化呈显著的一致变旱趋势,而春、夏、冬3季旱涝变化趋势表现出一定的区域性特征;从旱涝的时间演变来看,在温度与降水双重因子驱动下春、夏、秋、冬均表现为干旱化趋势,相比较秋季的干旱化程度最强,而春季的最弱,夏、冬两季相当,而全年的干旱程度比四季的程度更强;从极端旱涝的多时间尺度来看,在年代际和年际尺度上,极端洪涝发生频次逐渐减少,而极端干旱发生频次逐渐增多,从季节尺度看,春、冬两季极端干旱发生频次较多,而夏季最少,极端洪涝发生频次夏季最多,春季次之,秋季最少。从旱涝的持续性特征来看,持续性干旱事件的持续时间有增长趋势,发生频率有增多趋势,发生强度有增强趋势,并且主要发生在冬春两季,而持续性洪涝事件的持续时间、发生强度没明显变化趋势,发生频率有减少趋势,发生的季节也没明显差异。     

1208-1369年陕甘宁交界地区干湿变化

More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought (F/D) index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan’anlu in the Yuan Dynasty) was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208–1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. (1) 1208–1240: drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. (2) 1240–1320: long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. (3) 1320–1369: drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic changes might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.     

Wet-dry changes in the borderland of Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia from 1208 to 1369 based on historical records

More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought (F/D) index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan’anlu in the Yuan Dynasty) was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208–1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. (1) 1208–1240: drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. (2) 1240–1320: long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. (3) 1320–1369: drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the Mongol–Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol–Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic changes might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.     

河南省气候变化特征及其对旱涝的影响

根据河南省21个气象站点1960-2013年的气温和降水资料,运用趋势线法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Z指数法、马尔科夫模型、经验正交函数分解等研究了河南省气候变化特征及其对旱涝的影响。结果表明:(1)河南省气温呈现上升趋势,气温突变点是1997年;降水量呈现弱减少趋势。气温从南部向北部逐步降低,中部地区增温趋势明显;降水量由东南向西北逐步减少,中东部地区呈现增加趋势,北部、西部、南部呈现减少趋势。(2)河南省干旱化趋势不断加重。气温变化与旱涝发生次数具有同步性。气温突变点1997年前后对比发现,极端涝灾发生次数明显减少,极端旱灾发生次数明显增加。运用马尔科夫模型预测旱涝随时间变化的趋势,河南省以正常状态概率最大,旱灾状态概率大于涝灾。(3)河南省主要的旱涝空间分布型态分别为整体一致型、南北反位相型、东西反位相型。年际旱涝趋势空间变化与降水量趋势空间变化基本一致;春季的变干趋势从北部向南部逐步加重;夏季的增湿趋势,从西华-南阳一线,分别向东南和西北逐步减轻;秋季整个区域有变干趋势;冬季的增湿趋势从西南向东北逐步加重。     

近50年来中国干湿气候界线的10年际波动

利用中国北方1951～1999年降水量和年蒸发量资料，计算了干燥度指数（D）。并据此将中国划分为干旱区（D（0.20）），半干旱区（0.20-0.50）和湿润区（D(0.50）），近50a中国干湿气候波动显著，区域差异大；50a波动幅度东北区为20～400km，华北区为40～400km，西北东部为30～350km，西南区为40～370km，以80年代为界，在20世纪80年代以前（包括80年代），西南区气候具有显著变湿趋势；西北东部稍变湿；华北区和东北区具有变干趋势，且华北区变干程度比东北区严重。进入90年代。西南区和西北东部气候有变干迹象。华北区西部气候的干旱程度有所增加，华北区东部有所减弱，东北区气候进一步变湿，半干旱区是湿润区与干旱区之间的过渡区，是中国季风的边缘地带，也是环境变化的敏感区，20世纪60～70年代中国（北方）干湿气候存在一次突变，由较湿润变为干旱。50年来干湿气候界线呈现出整体移动和东西、南北相异波动的特征，当干湿气候界线同时向西或向北移动时，中国北方气候就变得相对湿润；当同时向东或向南移动时，北方气候就变得相对干旱；当干湿气候界线东西、南北相异移动时，北方气候的干旱程度就介于二者之间。     

宁夏回族自治区持续性旱灾的气候背景

基于宁夏地区1978—2010年旱灾灾情要素年资料和23个气象站1971—2011年月平均气温和月降水量资料,运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和突变检验方法,详细分析了该地区近33年旱灾灾情及近41年气候的时空变化特征,在此基础上,剖析了持续性旱灾产生的气候背景。结果表明：1978—2010年宁夏地区旱灾呈持续性加重趋势,受灾人口、农作物受灾面积和直接经济损失增速分别为28.78万人/10a、3.16万hm²/10a和8 504.04万元/10a。空间变化上,旱灾加重速度由中部向北、向南呈减慢趋势。1971—2011年宁夏地区气候总体呈暖干化趋势,年平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温的升温率分别为0.42 ℃/10a、0.37 ℃/10a和0.50 ℃/10a,增暖表现为全年温度升高,年平均气温和平均最高气温于20世纪90年代早期发生了显著增暖突变;降水量呈减少趋势,但不显著。宁夏持续性旱灾是气温持续快速上升和降水量减少共同作用的结果,其中气温显著增高是该地区干旱灾害加剧的主要气候因素。     

共和盆地气候变化及其环境响应

利用共和盆地1953年以来的气象资料,分析了53年来的气候变化特征。结果显示:(1) 共和盆地多年平均气温呈上升趋势,以每10年约0.28℃的倾向率增高,各季节气温和降水变化趋势不一致,春季(3-5月)和夏季(6-8月)气温上升不明显,但秋季(9-11月)和冬季(12-2月)两季上升明显;年降水量呈现微弱的增加趋势,年内分配不均,夏季和秋季降水减少,春季和冬季降水量增加; (2) 共和盆地气候暖干化是目前导致土地沙化日趋严重、草地退化、灾害频繁、河流径流量减少等环境问题的关键性因子,已经对当地的社会经济发展与环境产生了重大影响;(3)共和盆地是青藏高原乃至全球气候变化的敏感地区。     

中国各省级行政区未来气候耗能变化可能情景

利用7个全球耦合气候模式的集成结果,得到我国2020~2029和2050~2059年气温和度日变化的可能情景。结合社会经济发展的影响,计算得到我国各省级行政区未来气候耗能变化的可能情景。结果表明:我国未来平均年总度日有显著的降低,总度日的变化有明显的地域性,西部和北方地区降低,南方地区有所增加;取暖度日普遍降低,降温度日有不同程度的增加;2020~2029年和2050~2059年度日变化空间格局相似, 2050~2059年的变化幅度大于2020~2029年;未来我国南方沿海大部分地区的气候耗能有所增加,气候耗能下降区主要分布在北方、中部和西部地区;气候耗能变化空间格局有度日变化的作用,也受社会经济发展水平的影响,同一地区的各省(区、市)具体气候耗能变化值也有较大差异。