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WU Xuebao Lydie LAVANANT ZHANG Fengying RAN Maonong Pascal BRUNEL 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2001,15(4):477-484
This paper describes briefly the sounding capabilities of TOVS/ATOVS onboard the NOAA polar-orbiting meteorological satellites,followed by a more detailed review of the retrieval schemes.The ICI physical retrieval scheme with some adaptations is implemented in our experiment.The analyses of the Chinese regional NWP model are utilized to create a rolling library of initial guess field.Retrieval results validated against both NWP analyses and radiosondes indicate good agreement between ICI retrievals and conventional observations.Preliminary result from the PC-ATOVS Windows display system of NSMC will also be shown. 相似文献
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The Multivariate and Minimum Residual(MMR) cloud detection and retrieval algorithm, previously developed and tested on simulated observations and Advanced Infrared Sounder radiance, was explored and validated using various radiances from multiple sensors. For validation, the cloud retrievals were compared to independent cloud products from Cloud Sat, MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and GOES(Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites). We found good spatial agreement within a single instrument, although the cloud fraction on each pixel was estimated independently. The retrieved cloud properties showed good agreement using radiances from multiple satellites, especially for the vertically integrated cloud mask. The accuracy of the MMR scheme in detecting mid-level clouds was found to be higher than for higher and lower clouds. The accuracy in retrieving cloud top pressures and cloud profiles increased with more channels from observations. For observations with fewer channels, the MMR solution was an "overly smoothed" estimation of the true vertical profile, starting from a uniform clear guess. Additionally, the retrieval algorithm showed some meaningful skill in simulating the cloudy radiance as a linear observation operator, discriminating between numerical weather prediction(NWP) error and cloud effects. The retrieval scheme was also found to be robust when different radiative transfer models were used. The potential application of the MMR algorithm in NWP with multiple radiances is also discussed. 相似文献
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基于贝叶斯方案的雷达反射率反演水汽及其同化试验 总被引:1,自引:5,他引:1
雷达资料是目前为数不多有能力为高分辨率预报模式提供高分辨率信息资料的资料之一。为充分利用该资料所包含的中小尺度信息,文中基于雷达反射率,利用贝叶斯方法反演出大气相对湿度;将质控后的资料引入3Dvar系统进行同化分析,为高分辨率模式提供初值场。以台风“妮妲”登陆为例,通过一维反演及三维变分系统分析,有效地订正了实况有回波而模式预报无回波区域的大气湿度趋于合理,增加背景场的湿度,减小模拟回波比观测偏强的区域的大气湿度;同化大气湿度后模式在前6小时报出的台风外围回波分布、演变更合理,改进了降水雨带的分布与强度。1个月的批量试验反映1D+3Dvar同化雷达资料后,大气对流层中低层(850~400 hPa)增湿明显,其增湿影响程度可延续12小时以上。其逐时降水预报在前12小时的TS均比控制试验高,而大于5 mm以上降水预报偏差则与控制试验的大略一致或更接近1。 相似文献
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卫星气象的发展——机遇与挑战 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
气象卫星和卫星气象发展到今天,正处于一个承上启下,继往开来的关键时期。本文从国内外气象卫星的发展,气象卫星对大气科学的作用和影响这两大方面讨论了它们在不同发展阶段所取得的进展、成就和特点,以及未来的发展趋势和面临的科学、技术问题。在此基础上,提出了卫星气象为适应良好的发展机遇所面临的挑战,它们是:绝对辐射定标和真实性检验、发展快速精确的辐射传输模式、全球模式中同化卫星遥感的水汽和云等资料、在区域模式中同化卫星遥感的高分辨率资料和发展先进的反演算法。 相似文献
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作者介绍了近年来在数值天气预报领域的一个新动向-变网格一体化模式的进展。这种模式可以替代目前业务数值天气预报的有限区模式和全球谱模式,降低业务数值天气预报的计算成本。网格距离的可变性,以及采用半隐式-半拉格朗日式时间差分方案是该模式的主要特点。法国的变网格一体化模式自1992年已投入业务使用,其可行性已得到了预报检验的初步证实。 相似文献
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数值天气预报业务模式现状与展望 总被引:36,自引:5,他引:31
20 0 4年是数值天气预报理论提出 10 0周年 ,同时也是数值天气预报业务化应用 5 0周年。经过百年的发展历程 ,数值天气预报学科有了飞跃的发展。特别是最近 10多年来 ,大气科学以及地球科学的研究进展 ,高速度、大容量的巨型计算机及网络系统的快速发展 ,更加快了数值天气预报的发展步伐。文中从模式动力框架、物理过程参数化、模式程序软件等方面对数值天气预报业务模式现状进行了简要综述 ,对存在的问题进行了探讨 ,并对数值天气预报业务模式的未来发展作了展望。当前数值天气预报业务模式发展的特点有 :(1) 2 0世纪 90年代中期以来 ,各国的全球和区域模式水平和垂直分辨率都有明显提高 ,且模式物理过程也同步进行改进 ;数值预报业务模式已进入了大规模并行计算的阶段 ;(2 )主要发达国家和中国都正在致力于研发各自的新业务数值预报模式———非静力 (多尺度 )一体化模式或非静力中尺度模式 ,部分国家的新一代天气 气候一体化数值模式已业务运行 ;(3)业务数值预报模式正在朝着不断完善的方向发展。随着模式分辨率的提高 ,云物理过程、陆面过程和湍流过程、考虑坡度 -坡向因子的辐射过程等在模式中的参数化方案 ,以及模式垂直坐标的选择越来越受重视 ,这些物理过程的描述成为业务数值模式改进的重点和 相似文献
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Jianhua LU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(5):707-716
Although the first successful numerical weather prediction(NWP)project led by Charney and von Neumann is widely known,little is known by the international community about the development of NWP during the 1950s in China.Here,a detailed historical perspective on the early NWP experiments in China is provided.The leadership in NWP of the late Professor Chen-Chao Koo,a protége of C.G.Rossby at the University of Stockholm during the late 1940s and a key leader of modern meteorology(particularly of atmospheric dynamics and physics)in China during the 1950s?70s,is highlighted.The unique contributions to NWP by Koo and his students,such as the ideas of formulating NWP as an“evolution”problem,in which the past data over multiple time steps are utilized,rather than an initial-value problem,and on the cybernetic aspects of atmospheric processes,i.e.,regarding the motion of the atmosphere at various time scales as an optimal control system,are also emphasized. 相似文献
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观测发现,西北太平洋区域夏季降水—SST存在显著的负相关,主要是由于El Ni?o衰减年西北太平洋异常反气旋持续至夏季,该过程是检验耦合模式性能的重要参照标准。本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS,通过海洋同化试验、大气模式AMIP试验与观测结果的比较,评估海洋同化试验对西北太平洋夏季局地海气相互作用特征的模拟影响。结果表明,海洋同化试验能够模拟出西北太平洋区域夏季降水—SST负相关,但负相关区域范围偏小。其与观测之间的最大差异出现在8月,西北太平洋负降水异常及异常反气旋位置偏东,强度偏弱。这是由于其模拟的El Ni?o衰减年夏季赤道东印度洋正降水异常偏弱且移动至赤道南侧,对流层增温偏弱,对西太平洋的遥相关作用偏弱。AMIP试验未考虑大气对海洋的反馈作用,不能再现西北太平洋降水—SST负相关,无法模拟出El Ni?o衰减年夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋。研究表明,海洋同化试验对西北太平洋区域局地海气相互作用特征的模拟能力较AMIP试验有所提升,其对8月西北太平洋降水与环流场的模拟偏差与东赤道印度洋降水模拟偏差有关。 相似文献
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Guifu ZHANG Vivek N.MAHALE Bryan J.PUTNAM Youcun QI Qing CAO ANDrew D.BYRD Petar BUKOVCIC Dusan S.ZRNIC Jidong GAO Ming XUE Youngsun JUNG Heather D.REEVES Pamela L.HEINSELMAN AlexANDer RYZHKOV Robert D.PALMER Pengfei ZHANG Mark WEBER Greg M.MCFARQUHAR Berrien MOORE III Yan ZHANG Jian ZHANG J.VIVEKANANDAN Yasser AL-RASHID Richard L.ICE Daniel S.BERKOWITZ Chong-chi TONG Caleb FULTON Richard J.DOVIAK 《大气科学进展》2019,36(6):571-588
After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation. 相似文献
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近30a登陆我国的西北太平洋热带气旋活动的时空变化特征 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
采用1979—2006年美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)资料,对登陆我国的西北太平洋(Northwest Pacific,NWP)TC强度、路径、登陆地点的气候特征、年际变化及其演变趋势进行了统计分析。结果表明:登陆我国的TC以发源于西北太平洋的西侧以及南海中、北部为主,并且在NWP西南区生成的登陆我国的TC基本以西北移动路径为主,而在NWP西北侧和南海生成的登陆我国的TC多为打转或移动路径转向;登陆我国的TC不仅在强度上具有明显增强的变化规律,而且在登陆位置上存在向东北方向偏移的演变趋势,使得登陆厦门以北区域的TC数量具有增加的趋势,而登陆厦门以南的TC数量存在减少的趋势;登陆我国的NWP TC移动路径存在年代际的演变特征。 相似文献
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Arti B. Bandgar J. S. Chowdary C. Gnanaseelan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):69-79
The Northwest Pacific (NWP) circulation (subtropical high) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system. During summer (June–August), anomalous lower tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation appears over NWP in some years, which is an indicative of stronger (weaker) than normal subtropical high. The anomalous NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years are associated with negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over most of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) region. This indicates concurrent relationship between NWP circulation and convection over the ISMR region. Dry wind advection from subtropical land regions and moisture divergence over the southern peninsular India during the NWP cyclonic circulation years are mainly responsible for the negative rainfall anomalies over the ISMR region. In contrast, during anticyclonic years, warm north Indian Ocean and moisture divergence over the head Bay of Bengal-Gangetic Plain region support moisture instability and convergence in the southern flank of ridge region, which favors positive rainfall over most of the ISMR region. The interaction between NWP circulation (anticyclonic or cyclonic) and ISMR and their predictability during these anomalous years are examined in the present study. Seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center and their multimodel ensemble mean skills in predicting the seasonal rainfall and circulation anomalies over the ISMR region and NWP for the period 1982–2004 are assessed. Analysis reveals that three (two) out of seven models are unable to predict negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent during the NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years at 1-month lead (model is initialized on 1 May). The limited westward extension of the NWP circulation and misrepresentation of SST anomalies over the north Indian Ocean are found to be the main reasons for the poor skill (of some models) in rainfall prediction over the Indian subcontinent. This study demonstrates the importance of the NWP circulation variability in predicting summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Considering the predictability of the NWP circulation, the current study provides an insight into the predictability of ISMR. Long lead prediction of the ISMR associated with anomalous NWP circulation is also discussed. 相似文献
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中国数值天气预报的自主创新发展 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾、减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在理论、方法和数值模式研究方面取得了有广泛国际影响的研究成果。在回顾新中国数值天气预报自主创新研究成果的基础上,重点对GRAPES(Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)半隐式半拉格朗日格点模式与物理过程的研发和业务应用的状况以及所取得的重要科学进展进行了综述。近年来,通过自主研发建立了中国数值天气预报业务体系—GRAPES体系。首次以自主技术实现了从区域3—10 km到全球25—50 km分辨率的确定性预报和集合预报系统,并在模式动力框架、四维变分同化和卫星资料同化技术等方面有所突破,建立了大气化学数值天气预报、台风数值预报和海浪预报等系统。自主研发的数值天气预报体系的建立是长期坚持既定科学技术方向以及研究和业务紧密结合、经验不断积累的结果,是中国自主发展数值天气预报技术的重要起点。 相似文献
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国家气象中心数值预报业务的进展 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在最近的15年中,国家气象中心的数值预报业务高速度发展,预报模式从北半球模式发展为全球谱模式,并配套建立了资料同化系统和用于降水预报的有限区预报模式,暴雨和台风预报模式正在研制中。目前数值预报时效已延至7天,T6393丙上时的预报水平已优于的数值预报产品的应用技术在不断改进,最高(低)气温下两天MOS预报精度已接近预报员制作的综合预报结果。 相似文献
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