近30a登陆我国的西北太平洋热带气旋活动的时空变化特征

采用1979—2006年美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）资料,对登陆我国的西北太平洋（Northwest Pacific,NWP）TC强度、路径、登陆地点的气候特征、年际变化及其演变趋势进行了统计分析。结果表明：登陆我国的TC以发源于西北太平洋的西侧以及南海中、北部为主,并且在NWP西南区生成的登陆我国的TC基本以西北移动路径为主,而在NWP西北侧和南海生成的登陆我国的TC多为打转或移动路径转向;登陆我国的TC不仅在强度上具有明显增强的变化规律,而且在登陆位置上存在向东北方向偏移的演变趋势,使得登陆厦门以北区域的TC数量具有增加的趋势,而登陆厦门以南的TC数量存在减少的趋势;登陆我国的NWP TC移动路径存在年代际的演变特征。

Spatiotemporal Distributive Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Northwest Pacific in 1979-2006

In this paper,climatology and interannual variation in the intensity,track and landfalling location of tropical cyclones（TCs） landfalling in China over the Northwest Pacific（NWP） are systematically examined,using the about 30 years（1979—2006） TC dataset from the Joint Typhoon Warming Center.The results indicate that a large proportion of landfalling TCs originates in the western part of the NWP and the mid-north part of the South China Sea.The landfalling TCs forming in the southwest part of the NWP are characterized by northwestward tracks,while those forming in the northwest of the NWP and the South China Sea mainly have meandering and recurving tracks.The intensity of landfalling TCs has a tendency to increase.The landfalling locations of TCs display a trend of northeastward shift,which leads to the increase in landfalling TCs north of Xiamen and the decrease south of Xiamen,thus showing the interdecadal variation in TC tracks over the NWP.