The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia

Concern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction.     

The Social Geographies of Indigenous Population and Housing in Australia's Regional Urban Centres

In recent years, social scientists have turned increasing scholarly focus to the ‘post-colonial city’, as it relates to the lived experiences and socio-cultural worlds of urban-dwelling Indigenous peoples. In Australia, this literature is concerned primarily with issues of identity, power and representation in big cities. More conventional geographic analyses regarding socio-spatial, economic and demographic aspects of urban Indigenous experience have been mostly absent from this discourse. In this paper, we begin to address this gap within the literature by identifying notable socio-spatial, economic, and demographic features of urban Indigenous experience in regional Australian cities. We draw on census and administrative data to empirically examine Indigenous residency, presence, and uneven housing market access in regional urban centres. The analysis builds a national comparative picture regarding population change, tenure type, crowding and housing affordability in these localities. At the same time, it ‘drills down’ to explore some of the drivers and implications of change against these indicators in one case study locality: Geraldton Western Australian. This case study analysis, based on recent fieldwork, grounds the broad identified trends in a localised narrative, illuminating some of general and specific socio-economic and socio-spatial dynamics that shape urban life for Indigenous peoples in regional Australia and the implications of these dynamics for broader questions of co-existence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.     

中国出口产品地区专业化

研究出口产品地区专业化有助于深入理解产业地理格局和区域经济发展。本文基于演化经济地理学最新提出的产品地区相关专业化概念及其对应的评价指标AR(Average Technological Relatedness),分析了2000-2011年中国城市制造业出口产品地区专业化的时空特征及影响因素。结果表明：中国出口产品地区专业化程度较高的城市由东部沿海逐渐向内陆扩散,并形成多个连片地区,与区域经济发展水平高度契合。出口产品地区专业化具有显著的产品分异,技术含量高的产品具有更高的地区专业化水平。实证模拟结果显示,更高的技术关联密度、地方经济复杂度与产品复杂度有利于提升出口产品地区专业化程度,而地方政府对出口产品的干预趋于违逆市场的方向,不利于产品地区专业化的提升。     

区域产业集聚研究进展

区域产业集聚研究是人文地理学重要的研究领域,是人地关系地域系统研究的重要方面,在全球化背景下,区域发展要响应全球化,促进区域产业集聚形成,培育区域发展优势,提高竞争力,融入到全球生产网络。文章重点回顾了近10年来区域产业集聚的研究进展。区域产业集聚的理论研究取得了很大进展,集中体现在新产业区理论、新经济地理学理论、产业簇群理论、点-轴理论、公司地理论等方面。学者们从不同侧面,对区域产业集聚机制进行了研究,注重集聚经济、贸易与市场拉动、企业联系、知识传播等方面的研究。区域产业集聚研究是对全球经济一体化的重要响应,区域企业集群与推进企业的培育是区域产业集聚的关键。要不断调整区域产业集聚要素,以形成产业集聚的最佳状态和效果,要加强传统工业基地的产业集聚研究。既要培育合理的产业集聚,又要注重与区域人口、资源环境相协调。     

新疆区域经济空间分异的微观机制与测度分析——基于新经济地理学的视角

借鉴新经济地理学的基本框架,从人口与产业集聚匹配性的视角分析了新疆地区差距形成的微观机制,通过引入内含空间因素的测度指标,对新疆地区差距现状及其演进趋势进行了分析。研究发现：新疆地区差距是集聚机制作用下人口与产业（进而产出）集聚不匹配的结果,在此机制作用下,新疆地区差距呈现明显的梯度特征,各梯度之间差距明显,其中第一梯度和第四梯度地区人口与产业集聚的不匹配是新疆地区发展失衡的主要动因。为缩小地区发展差距,未来新疆政策设计的基本思路是立足其特殊区情,先“动钱”、再“动人”,通过集聚经济的发展和劳动力的自由流动逐步实现区域间协调发展。     

2000—2020年中国人口分布格局演变及影响因素

基于第五、六、七次全国人口普查数据,本文分析了2000—2020年中国人口分布的空间格局、集散态势和影响因素。结果表明,中国人口分布依然保持东密西疏的基本格局,胡焕庸线两侧的自然地理环境差异性决定了这一格局的长期稳定性;人口空间集中化趋势在21世纪初的10年内主要发生在东南半壁,但在2010—2020年间成为各区域的共同特征。省会城市的人口集聚能力持续增强,2010—2020年的优势更加凸显,但这种行政力量主导的首位度提升效应将随着全省发展阶段的演进而逐渐弱化。人口变动的区域分化明显：沿海城市群的空间连绵化逐渐形成了强吸引力、高承载力的沿海人口增长带,东北地区几乎转向全面的人口收缩,中部各省依托省会展开的人口竞争依然激烈,川渝黔地区普遍实现了人口的止降回增,西北地区则面临人口收缩风险。此外,区域人口增长的驱动因素逐渐从经济要素主导转为经济要素和舒适性要素并重,各地区舒适性的差异可能将成为影响未来人口空间格局变化的重要因素。     

Regional population redistribution in the USSR: 1979-84

"The primary purpose of this paper is to assess very broadly the regional growth and redistribution of the total, urban and rural populations of the USSR, as well as aggregate, regional and city size patterns of urbanization for the 1979-84 period. In order to investigate the continuity or reversal of trends, comparisons with preceding intercensal periods will also be undertaken, particularly with the 1970-79 period." It is found that "regional rates of population change between 1979 and 1984 were generally lower than those of 1970-79, primarily due to a general decline in natural increase rates. In addition, regional variations in rates of population change for the 1979-84 period were similar to those of the 1970-79 period.... The USSR has apparently reversed its long-term trend of deconcentration in the sense that the population as a whole is becoming more concentrated again, but this time in a new area of concentration, Central Asia, which is now the most populous economic region."     

Australian Immigration Policy in Practice: a case study of skill recognition and qualification transferability amongst Irish 457 visa holders

ABSTRACT

Immigration quotas in Australia are guided primarily by economic policy—the needs of the nation are quite rightly the principal concern of policymakers. Using data from a mixed-methods study, this article engages in a dialogue between labour geography and population and migration studies through an examination of the lived experiences of migrating workers and their families. The paper examines a number of cases where policy and practice have detrimentally affected the migration experience of Irish migrants who came to Australia under the Temporary Work (Skilled) (subclass 457) visa. The case study focuses on interviews with secondary 457 visa applicants, namely the wives of former 457 workers. These interviews highlight the problems faced by newcomers to Australia who arrive under this visa. The experiences relayed by these women demonstrate how ill-considered policy relating to qualification transferability makes entering the workplace and, therefore, transition to life in Australia more difficult than it needs to be. While the cases that underpin this paper ended in migration failure (the families involved returned to Ireland), the core issues of qualification transferability and skill comparison were replicated in the wider study dataset (of 1022 survey responses and 80 qualitative interviews). While acknowledging that citizens generally have more freedom and more civil rights than non-citizens, the findings of this study indicate that further review of Australia’s 457 visa is needed, particularly with respect to the limitations placed on the agency of migrant workers. Greater awareness amongst prospective migrants as to the purpose and limits of the 457 visa is also necessary, in order to avoid misinterpretation and the extreme personal repercussions outlined in this paper.     

THE HUMAN GEOGRAPHY OF SOUTHEAST ASIA: AN ANALYSIS OF POST-WAR DEVELOPMENTS

This paper reviews the directional shifts in human geographical research on Southeast Asia from 1945 to the present. It first begins with an overview of the identity of the region as conceived in various cultural traditions, such as the Greek, Arabic and Indian traditions. This is followed by an evaluation of regional geographies of Southeast Asia in the post-war period, highlighting the pre-eminence of the geostrategic definition of the region and the failure to come to grips with its rich cultural-historical identity. The paper then goes on to show that, arising from the changes in conceptual developments and methodologies in geography, the early regional emphasis then shifted to systematic concerns, with a movement away from ‘encyclopaedic’ to ‘adjectival’ geography (economic, urban, population, political, cultural and historical) and a greater emphasis on issues concerning national development. Since the 1980s, there have also been fewer regional works on Southeast Asia and though there are now many more indigenous geographers within the region, much of their research is based on their own national or provincial areas. However, this may shift again, given that rapid economic growth has now given the region prominence. Certainly, there is renewed multi-disciplinary interest in Southeast Asia.     

Progress of economic geography in China’s mainland since 2000

Economic geography in China’s mainland has developed in a different way from that in many other countries. On the one hand, it has been increasingly active in participating in academic dialogues and knowledge development led by Anglophone countries; on the other hand, it takes practice-based and policy-oriented research, i.e. satisfying the demands from the Chinese government and society, as the linchpin of research. Since there has been a lot of literature reviewing the development of economic geography in the country before the new millennium, this paper will make a comprehensive analysis of the discipline in 2000–2015, based on a bibliometric survey and research projects done by Chinese economic geographers. The analysis indicates that (1) economic geography research in China’s mainland is unevenly distributed but concentrated in several leading institutions; (2) traditional research fields like human-nature system, regional disparity, industrial location and transportation geography remain dominant while new topics such as globalization, multinational corporations and foreign direct investments, information and communication technology, producer services, climate change and carbon emission emerge as important research areas; (3) Chinese economic geography is featured by policy-oriented research funded by government agencies, having considerable impacts on regional policy making in China, both national and regional. To conclude, the paper argues that the development of economic geography in China’s mainland needs to follow a dual track in the future, i.e. producing knowledge for the international academic community and undertaking policy-oriented research to enhance its role as a major consulting body for national, regional and local development.     

基于不同尺度的中国区域经济差异

采用变异系数、泰尔指数、空间自相关和尺度方差等统计方法从地带、省级、地级和县级4 个尺度对1998-2009 年中国区域经济差异进行测度和空间格局比较分析。① 差异测度研究表明, 自1998 年以来, 中国区域经济差异在4 个尺度上均表现出扩大的趋势;省级、地级和县级单元人均GDP具有显著的空间自相关性, 其中地级和县级人均GDP的空间自相关程度呈扩大趋势。② 尺度方差及其分解研究表明, 尺度方差及其构成大小依次排列均为县级、地级、省级、地带, 即尺度越小, 尺度方差越大, 对区域经济差异的贡献份额也越大。③ 空间格局研究表明, 不同尺度区域经济空间关联格局总体相对稳定, HH类型集聚区大多分布于东部沿海地区, LL类型在中西部地区的大规模集聚是不同尺度区域经济空间自相关性的主要原因;各尺度显著空间关联类型对总体空间自相关和区域经济差异的影响各不相同。     

Ageing research in Australia: reflecting on Graeme Hugo’s four decades of contribution

ABSTRACT

Globally, population ageing is one of the most pressing social and policy issues faced today. Over the next two decades, Australian society will face dramatic increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, as the baby boomers move into older age and fertility levels remain low. Yet population ageing is not a surprising or new trend—demographic changes in the age profile of a population tend to occur incrementally rather than suddenly. As a demographer and geographer, Graeme Hugo drew attention to this trend in Australia’s population more than three decades ago. Throughout Graeme Hugo’s vast breadth of work over the past 40 years, there has been a consistent thread of demographic analysis and academic thought associated with the ageing of Australia’s population. This paper focuses on Hugo’s contributions to academic thought and policy on Australia’s ageing population and the challenges associated with this for both service delivery and health policy as Australian society moves into an unprecedented era of population ageing.     

当代俄罗斯经济区划研究

前苏联是世界最早研究经济区并进行经济区划实践的国家。在当代俄罗斯市场经济的转型时期，其经济区划具有新的背景、结构和原则。随着俄罗斯集权化的巩固和联邦化的发展，如何在全国范围内合理布局生产力，改善联邦各主体原有的经济部门和地域结构，使不同水平的区域综合发展，并表现其鲜明的市场专业化水平，进行科学的经济区划是俄罗斯经济地理所面临的主要任务。本文通过对俄罗斯经济区划的历史回顾及现状分析，提出了其区域发展的现存问题及解决措施。     

Demographic response to rural restructuring and counterurbanisation in South Australia, 1981-1991

"Using South Australia as a case study, this paper seeks to trace and demonstrate two processes (counterurbanisation and rural restructuring) whose effects overlap to differentiate and characterise the population geography of...two zones, separated by a transition along the outer fringe of Adelaide's urban field.... In the demographic core zone [rural restructuring] has been partly offset by continued counterurbanisation, resulting in demographic mixing and rural dilution. The 1981-91 population growth in rural communities is shown to be more a function of population density at the outset of the period than of initial population size. Demographic growth...is shown to conform to a simple unidimensional scale, allowing the production of a clear, easily interpretable typology of rural demographic change with few non-conforming statistical areas. At a local level within individual rural communities, demographic decline is shown to be accompanied by increased concentration of the population into small towns, while demographic growth is associated with deconcentration."     

中国农业地域分异与现代农业区划方案

农业是自然再生产与经济再生产过程的统一,农业地域格局取决于自然、经济、社会和技术等要素的综合影响,而且伴随着这些要素的长期变化而产生时空演化和区域分异,由此奠定了综合农业区划的科学基础。本文探讨了中国工业化、城镇化、信息化和农业现代化协调发展新战略,剖析了现代农业发展环境的时空转变及其动态特征,建立了农业自然要素与农业地域功能耦合测度指标体系,应用聚类分析和定性评判综合手段提出了新时期中国现代农业区划原则和方法,制定了全国现代农业区划方案。该方案包括15个农业一级区、53个农业二级区,并与1981年农业综合区划方案进行比较分析,深入揭示了快速工业化、城镇化、信息化进程中中国农业生产结构、地域功能、格局动态和发展趋向,为新时期加快各地区现代农业战略性结构调整,促进农业现代化发展奠定了重要基础,为创新发展现代农业与乡村地理学,促进地理学综合研究服务国家战略需求提供了重要参考。     

张其昀主编的《方志月刊》及其地理学贡献

《方志月刊》是中国近代唯一的一种侧重于区域地理的刊物,刊物的名称选择、编辑特色等均受到了主编张其昀地理学思想的影响。通过对《方志月刊》载文及相关史实的梳理与考证,解析其办刊特色和地理学贡献。研究表明：该期刊注重科学的区域地理研究和地图、照片的运用,注重国外地理学成果的介绍和地理学史的整理,为中国近代地理学特别是区域地理学的发展提供了有益导向。     

The demogeographic region as an object for planning and management

A basic task in population geography is to investigate the spatial aspects of Soviet population policy. The concept of a demogeographic region is proposed as an approach for planning and managing demographic processes. A demogeographic region is an area with a certain combination of conditions and factors affecting demographic processes in order to endow it with distinctive tendencies in the evolution of demographic processes and structures and, as a result, with a given type of demographic indications. A demogeographic regionalization should be considered as a particular type of general economic regionalization. A method of identifying demogeographic regions with particular reference to the region Sverdlovsk Oblast has been worked out. It involves several steps. A preparatory stage involves the study of the territorial characteristics of urbanization in the oblast and the use of the field potential technique to identify areas with different levels of urbanization. The field potential of settlement makes it possible to establish spatial concentrations of population and the gravitation of places within the field of settlement, which are the basic features of contemporary urbanization. The number of minor civil divisions of Sverdlovsk Oblast was classified on the basis of demographic characteristics reflecting population change, age and sex structure, natural increase, and migration. The pattern recognition method, which makes it possible to combine into classes those elements that come closest to each other in terms of a series of attributes, was used. The entire set of minor civil divisions in Sverdlovsk Oblast was divided into 4 classes that differed in the quantitative parameters of demographic characteristics. These classes happen to have a fairly compact distribution within the oblast so that these classes could also be treated as territorial types of demographic setting. The plotting of these types on a map of the field potential of settlement yielded 3 demographic regions within the oblast: a Central Region with a high level of urbanization and steady population growth; a Peripheral Region with a low level of urbanization and a pronounced population decline; and a Transition Region with a medium level of urbanization, broken down into 2 subregions A (with stable population) and B (with declining population). The spatial and functional linkages between urbanization and demographic processes that can be identified within demogeographic regions suggest that any modification of some processes will affect others. This is crucial for controlling the spatial development of urbanization and demographic processes. Consequently, the demographic setting within Sverdlovsk Oblast can be optimized by controlling the demographic development within demographic regions. That proposition is illustrated with some examples.     

Regional disparities in present-day Norway

This article examines the role of regional policy in the light of the significant changes in the economic geography of Norway in the last thirty years. It focuses on how regional and sectoral policies with spatial effects have become the major instruments of the government to protect the settlement pattern inherited from previous periods of economic development. Regional disparities persist, and they are illustrated through a series of maps showing demographic trends and status in 1982.     

1980年以来京津冀区域研究进展评论

1980年以来,因研究内容和空间治理重点不同,京津冀、京津唐、环渤海、大渤海等区域名称与区域范围多次变动。作为中国最早开展人文与经济地理学研究的对象区域,越来越受到经济贸易、生态环境、城乡规划等多学科关注。本文基于学术论文和专著、具有影响的科研项目,对1980年以来京津冀及相关区域研究进展进行了综述和评论。归纳起来,研究对象区域经历了“京津唐（塘）—大（环）渤海—京津冀”的变化过程。整体上可分为4个阶段：20世纪80年代面向京津唐地区,国土规划为主的经济地理学区域研究,研究规模有限;20世纪90年代拓展到大（环）渤海地区,面向东（北）亚区域经济一体化进程开展经济贸易科学与地理学交叉研究;21世纪前10年,回归京津冀区域,生态环境科学和城市规划科学大规模介入的融合研究;21世纪10年代京津冀协同发展的多学科区域综合研究。其间,中央政府在该区域开展的一系列重大规划,包括20世纪80年代京津唐国土规划和90年代环渤海经济协作区规划,21世纪前10年京津冀都市圈区域规划和21世纪10年代京津冀协同发展规划,与区域研究形成了良性互动关系,在显著增强空间规划和战略决策的科学性的同时,也有力地促进了人文与经济地理学科发展,推动了人和自然相互间强烈作用状态下区域复杂系统演化规律的研究进展。     

Employing SWOT Analysis in Coursework on the Geographies of Regional Economic Development and Trade

Abstract

The use of SWOT analysis is a means through which geography students can investigate key concepts in economic geography and essential topics in regional economic development. This article discusses the results of a course project where economic geography students employed SWOT analysis to explore medium-sized metropolitan areas across the southern United States and their suitability for export-led development. The results suggest that students were able to critically evaluate these urban regions and their potential for integration into the global economy. This case also intimates that the SWOT concept could be applied to other situations and regions in geography coursework.