城市区域大气质量数值预报方法的研究进展

文章着重介绍了城市区域大气质量动力数值预报方法的研究进展，分析讨论了数值预报系统中的大气物理－边界层动力学－大气化学变化机制相耦合的结构特点以及预报系统存在的不确定性因素。     

复杂地形城市冬季大气污染的数值模拟研究

采用中尺度大气动力模式与大气扩散模式相结合的方法，针对复杂地形条件下兰州市冬季无明显冷空气入侵天气过程时段（1994年12月2－3日）的大气污染状况，进行污染物（二氧化硫和烟尘）浓度分布的数值模拟研究，分析了模拟的风场的气温层结随时间的变化以及污染物浓度的分布及其变化，进一步分析了模拟的风场和气温层结与污染物浓度分布的关系。结果表明，该模式系统对兰州市大气边界层结构及污染物浓度的分布有较好的模拟能力，并证明了该模式系统可适用于兰州市大气质量预测预报研究。     

中等工业城市大气环境的综合研究

本文系“六五”国家科技攻关项目《常州市经济发展对环境影响预测及环境保护对策研究》大气课题的综合论述。在外场试验的基础上,评价大气环境现状,分析空气污染气象特征,建立适用于平原地区中等工业城市的空气质量模式,合理选用参数,并用实测数据进行严密验证。应用模式,根据经济发展、城市发展规划和能源预测研究,预测1990年与2000年常州市的大气环境质量,并提出多种综合防治对策,定量地评估其环境效益。我们结合应用研究的需要,对大气环境容量理论,大气质量预测方法,污染气象参数和环境效益计算方法等一系列基础性问题,进行了有益的探索研究。     

忻州市空气质量日报与预报方法

采用环保监测部门大气质量监测点污染物的自动采样数据，根据常规气象观测资料和数值预报产品，输入城市中各监测点的污染物指数后，就可以较为及时准确地预报出未来空气质量，计算结论与环保部门会商后通过电视等多种媒体面向社会公众服务。污染指数的预报准确率达76％。     

区域大气质量评价数值模式系统的建立及试用

区域大气质量评价数值模式系统是以CALPUFF的应用开发为核心,根据陕西省的实际情况和大气环境业务服务需求,利用预报实时业务的网络环境,通过VB6.0编程,建立了一个具有自动数据处理、操作简便、比较实用的区域大气质量评价数值模式系统平台。依据2004年1月1日至12月31日的气象资料及源排放清单,对某工程的5个拟建地进行了大气质量数值模拟评价分析。结果表明,5地日均浓度超标的概率分别为27%、11%、5%、3%、8%。年平均浓度5地中3地未出现超负荷浓度值,满足2级标准要求,其他2地出现超负荷浓度值。其中一地污染超标最重,其可能原因是由于山体的影响,山谷中低层水平风速相对较小,不利于污染物的水平扩散,同时易形成地形山谷风次级环流,次级环流的存在把输送出去的污染物带回原地,形成二次污染。     

湖北省城市空气污染气象条件预报模式

湖北省城市空气污染气象条件预报模式（以下简称模式）建立在有限区域中尺度数值天气预报模式和大气污染扩散箱格模型的基础上,是一种利用大气探空资料和一些地形、地表特征来预测城市空气污染变化趋势的方法。     

质量守恒律在国家气候中心气候谱模式中的应用

概述了在国家气侯中心气侯谱模式中,引入参考大气和大气质量守恒律,消除了原模式由于模式大气质量不守恒引起的气候漂移计算误差,改进了气候模拟,提高了预报精度.     

美国国家环保局现行大气质量模式的特点和应用

现在,大气质量模式已成为美国环保机构实施大气质量管理的重要组成部分。本文介绍了美国国家环保局在《空气质量模式指南》和《大气污染应用模式用户网(UNAMAP)》中发布和推荐的有关模式的特点与应用。     

平流层大气质量环流脉冲事件与北半球冬季大陆尺度寒潮低温的次季节尺度预测

次季节预测是无缝隙天气预报气候预测业务的重要环节和难点所在,丰富次季节尺度预报因子、提高次季节尺度预测水平对防灾减灾工作的决策部署具有重要意义和显著价值。本文着重介绍了北半球冬季大陆尺度寒潮低温事件的次季节尺度预测新因子——平流层大气质量环流脉冲事件。平流层大气质量环流脉冲指数具有一定的次季节尺度可预测性,与逐个大范围极端温度事件存在物理联系,实时计算可行,可搭建以平流层大气质量环流变率为基础、以北半球中纬度地区冬季低温灾害次季节尺度预测为目标的动力-统计预测模型。     

自忆数值模式及其应用

取一个现成的数值模式作为动力核，根据自忆性数学原理，将该数值模式变换为一个自忆数值模式。该模式能包容若干个初始场的信息，这就为提高天气预报和气候预测准确率提供了一种可能和机会，藉此要衍生聘种新的预报途径。文中叙述了自忆数值模式的建模原理，给出了制作全球月温度场预报的实例。     

A microscale model for air pollutant dispersion simulation in urban areas: Presentation of the model and performance over a single building

A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model's performance, using CEDVAL(Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Dispersion Models) wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios;and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.     

城市空气污染预报方法简述

概括论述了城市空气污染预报的基本方法(潜势预报、统计预报和数值预报)、数值预报的主要特征(空间尺度与预报时效、高分辨率、多化学物质、理化生过程耦合、污染气象与污染物排放特征)及其用于天津和沈阳等城市的空气污染数值预报模式系统(σ中尺度和β中尺度气象预报模式与城市空气污染预报模式)。     

On Dry Deposition Modelling of Atmospheric Pollutants on Vegetation at the Microscale: Application to the Impact of Street Vegetation on Air Quality

A Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes model is used to investigate the impact of urban canopy vegetation on air quality, with particular emphasis on the comparison between the positive effect induced by deposition versus the negative effect due to a reduction of ventilation. With this aim, a series of simulations over a simplified urban geometry with different vegetation designs are carried out. The problem is tackled at two scales. From the mesoscale point of view, the relevant variable is the total deposition flux of pollutant as a function of the pollutant concentration above the canopy (e.g. the “mesoscale” deposition velocity). This is assessed within the Monin–Obukov similarity theory framework, and a modification of the classical formulation is proposed based on the numerical results. At the microscale, the distribution of concentration within the urban canopy is investigated for the different configurations. The main conclusion is that the height of the vegetation and the magnitude of the microscale deposition velocity are key parameters that determine which of the two effects (deposition or reduction of ventilation) prevails.     

CALPUFF模型在合肥地区SO2大气环境容量测算中的应用

在对合肥地区污染源调查的基础上,利用CALPUFF模型模拟了合肥地区大气污染物SO₂质量浓度场,通过与现场监测结果对比分析了模型的适用性,并根据模拟结果研究了不同排放源对合肥地区大气污染的贡献情况,建立了大气污染物传递矩阵;通过综合考虑城市区域的大气扩散能力、污染源贡献和大气环境质量目标等,采用线性规划模型测算了合肥市的大气环境容量.     

The Representativeness of Air Quality Monitoring Sites in the Urban Areas of a Mountainous City

Lanzhou is a typical mountainous city with severe air pollution in northwestern China. This study uses hourly observational data of air pollutants at five air quality monitoring sites in Lanzhou from July to December 2015 to discuss data quality control and the representativeness of the monitoring sites(four urban sites and one suburban site). A fuzzy matrix is applied to study primary air pollutants. The results show that of the six routinely monitored pollutants,the primary pollutant is PM_10 during the study period. Based on lag correlation analysis and one-way analysis of variance, it is concluded that there are redundant observations at the four urban sites for the timely diffusion and transport of air pollutants from the same general area. The coefficient of divergence(COD) method is then used to evaluate the spatial distribution differences, and the primary air pollutant PM_10 shows differences at each site. COD can be used as a positive indicator to describe site representativeness. To evaluate the overall air pollution in the valley, correlation analysis is performed between the PM_10 concentration retrieved from aerosol optical depth satellite data and the concentration from the four urban monitoring sites. Among these, the correlation between the workers' hospital site data and the retrieval data is the highest, passing the 90% confidence level. A new representative evaluation model for air quality monitoring sites, R_s = 0.77 COD + 0.23R_(retrieval), is established by using COD and correlation coefficients between routine observations and satellite retrieval products. From this model, it can be concluded that the biological products institute site in Lanzhou is the most representative site for the evaluation of air pollution out of the four urban air quality monitoring sites from July to December 2015.     

中国城市机动车排放污染控制规划体系研究

建立城市机动车污染控制规划体系的目标在于揭示城市机动车排放特征以及由此形成的污染物的分布规律,并根据城市大气容量和环境质量的要求进行排放控制目标的选择和方案优化.该文吸收发达国家原有控制规划体系的主体思想,并对其进行了改造,使得新的规划控制体系能够更适合我国城市的特点.该体系结构的核心内容主要由机动车排放因子的确定、机动车污染物排放时空分布规律的确定、大气环境质量状况的模拟和分析、机动车排放优化模型的建立和综合控制实施影响评估四部分组成.通过建构上述四个核心模块的规划内容和方法,新的控制规划体系可以迅速、有效地为中国城市机动车污染控制管理和决策服务.     

城市大气边界层的数值研究

本文利用能量闭合的二维非线性、非定常模式,结合地面热量平衡方程,研究了城市热岛和城市热岛环流以及其它相关的城市边界层参量的发展演变规律;同时探讨了在城市污染面源的情况下,污染物的扩散、输送问题.模拟结果得到了天津市城市热岛观测资料的证实.     

上海城市空气质量预报分类统计模型

上海城市空气质量预报的分类统计模型利用上海地区2000年6月至2002年12月的空气污染浓度资料及常规气象资料建立模型，用2003年全年资料检验模型。模型采用方差分析方法区分不同污染浓度高低的气象条件，按季节、地面风向和雨量3项指标对浓度样本分类，季节分类划分冬、夏半年子样本，风向分类划分偏西风向、非西风向子样本，雨量分类划分有雨、无雨子样本，共计3层分类，18个分类子样本，样本分类的高值区和低值区与实际污染浓度的季节、地面风向和雨量的分布是一致的。最后，采用线性逐步回归方法对各分类子样本建立起一组预报模型。模型的检验评分结果显示：分类统计模型较全样本统计模型实际业务预报精度有所提高，在城市空气质量预报中是切实可行的。     

The influence of street architecture on flow and dispersion in street canyons

Summary The paper presents an overview of the influence of street architecture on the wind and turbulence patterns in street canyons and discusses the effects on local air quality. The findings of recent experimental and numerical studies are summarized and wind-tunnel data sets are presented that illustrate the flow-field variability. It is shown that small-scale features of the street architecture play an important role. The formation of a vortex inside the street canyon is affected by the roof configuration. In shorter street canyons, the flow component along the street becomes important for pollutant transport. These results are of importance for urban air quality modeling in particular when dealing with pollution problems caused by road traffic. Furthermore, the findings should be taken into account in fast response models that are used to assess critical areas in the case of accidental or non-accidental releases of hazardous material in urban areas.