甘肃黄土高原林木生长水分条件和植树造林

分析甘肃黄土高原的年降水量和林木蒸散耗水量得出，这里大部分地区水分条件不能满足林木生长的需求。提出了一系列干旱造林应重视的问题和需要采取的方法。     

冀中南太行山东麓苹果需水特征和水分适宜性分析

研究冀中南太行山东麓苹果生长的需水特征和水分适宜性,分析苹果年度生长期内适宜补灌期,为苹果生产充分利用水资源和科学灌溉提供理论依据。运用河北省内丘富岗苹果和素有"太行山第一驿站"之称的顺平苹果物候观测资料及气象资料,利用FAO推荐的彭曼公式和参考作物系数法,进行苹果需水量计算,分析需水特征和水分适宜性。结果表明,冀中南太行山东麓苹果年度生长期需水量呈阶段性线性下降,幼果期-着色期需水量占全生长期需水量80%,萌芽-开花期和成熟落叶期需水量分别占10%。顺平和内丘全生长期多年平均水分适宜度均在0.7以上,中部(顺平)水分适宜度优于南部的(内丘),且2011年以来水分适宜度显著优于1981-2010年的;果实膨大期、着色期、成熟-落叶期水分适宜性较好,萌芽期、开花期、幼果期水分适宜度均小于0.5,降水不能满足果树此阶段需水要求,尤其是幼果期,水分适宜度最差。因此,苹果适宜补灌期为春季3月下旬-5月下旬。     

气候因素变化对许昌烟区的影响及适应性分析

分析了许昌烟区1971—2005年4个年代气候因素变化特点,采用隶属度函数模型和指数和法,估算了许昌各县（市）的气候适生性指数（CFI）,并对其变化原因进行了分析。结果表明：不同年代各县（市）的CFI均在0．80以上,表明各县（市）均属烤烟生产气候适宜区。从4个年代CFI的均值来看,许昌县〉长葛〉襄城〉禹州〉鄢陵;从4个年代CFI变异程度来看,禹州〉长葛〉襄城〉鄢陵〉许昌县。各县（市）不同年代的CFI均呈“低-高-高-低”变化趋势;20世纪80年代以来,许昌县、襄城、长葛、禹州的CFI值及变化趋势基本一致,均明显高于鄢陵。80年代至21世纪初鄢陵的气候适生性指数明显低于其他县（市）,与伸根期温度相对较低,旺长期和成熟期多雨、高湿有关。     

气候因素变化对许昌烟区的影响及适应性分析

分析了许昌烟区1971—2005年4个年代气候因素变化特点,采用隶属度函数模型和指数和法,估算了许昌各县（市）的气候适生性指数（CFI）,并对其变化原因进行了分析。结果表明：不同年代各县（市）的CFI均在0．80以上,表明各县（市）均属烤烟生产气候适宜区。从4个年代CFI的均值来看,许昌县〉长葛〉襄城〉禹州〉鄢陵;从4个年代CFI变异程度来看,禹州〉长葛〉襄城〉鄢陵〉许昌县。各县（市）不同年代的CFI均呈“低-高-高-低”变化趋势;20世纪80年代以来,许昌县、襄城、长葛、禹州的CFI值及变化趋势基本一致,均明显高于鄢陵。80年代至21世纪初鄢陵的气候适生性指数明显低于其他县（市）,与伸根期温度相对较低,旺长期和成熟期多雨、高湿有关。     

广东种植青枣气候适宜度评价

为科学指导广东青枣种植及其精细化管理, 以青枣生长发育对光、温、水的需求指标为依据, 结合广东实际生产气候条件, 构建了青枣种植的光、温、水和气候适宜度模型, 定量评价1961-2019年广东青枣各生育期和全生育期的气候适宜度。(1)除清远和韶关北部山区因地势高易受极端低温影响外, 广东大部地区气候条件适宜种植青枣。(2)广东种植青枣历年气候适宜度介于0.49~0.66, 各气候因子气候适宜度以温度最高, 日照次之, 降水最低。(3)青枣各生育期以花期和抽梢期气候适宜度最高, 发芽期次之, 果实生长期和果实成熟期最低; 温度和日照适宜度由高到低的顺序为:花期>抽梢期>果实生长期>发芽期>果实成熟期; 降水适宜度由高到低的顺序为:抽梢期>花期>发芽期>果实成熟期>果实生长期。(4)降水是广东种植青枣的主要限制因子, 对果实生长期和果实成熟期的影响更显著, 未来青枣种植要十分注意秋冬季节的水分调控。      

区域雷灾易损性分析、评估及易损度区划

根据广东省近10年来的雷电灾害统计资料和近35年来的雷暴日观测统计资料，提炼出雷击密度、雷电灾害频度、经济损失模数、生命易损模数作为雷灾易损性评价指标。在详细分析了广东省各地市的自然环境、经济状况和各地区雷灾损失情况，对广东省各地市面对雷电灾害的脆弱性和易损性进行了综合评估，初步形成了各地易损性结构和广东省雷灾易损度区划。提出雷电灾害区域易损性分析、评估的模式，为区域防御雷电灾害、减低雷电损失的规划提供科学依据。     

相对湿润度指数在农业干旱监测业务中的应用

该文介绍相对湿润度指数在逐日滚动的农业干旱监测业务中应用的处理方法。文中采用联合国粮农组织推荐的方法进行潜在蒸散的计算和作物系数订正,提出了作物根区可吸收土壤总有效含水量的概念,并替代作物根区土壤总有效含水量进行水分胁迫条件下的作物系数订正,观察济南站2008年1—5月冬小麦实际蒸散量的计算结果,发现在蒸发强烈的春季,水分胁迫效果明显;提出了复合相对湿润度指数、区域综合相对湿润度指数等概念,对相对湿润度指数进行应用上的演化,解决了干旱演变过程中存在的前期土壤水分盈亏的累积影响问题,实现了县域内农业干旱状况的综合评定,并突破单种作物生长季的局限,实现了农业干旱的周年监测。通过对山东省114个测墒站2008年2月28日—12月8日人工测墒与区域综合相对湿润度指数的干旱等级对比,3048组有效数据中,2012组数据吻合,总吻合率为66%,其中,黄河、东平湖、微山湖灌溉区及鲁西北大部吻合率在50%以下;中东部地区多在70%以上;从全年情况来看,春季吻合率较低,夏季吻合率较高。     

廊坊市雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划

利用1968～2007年河北省廊坊市9个地面气象观测站的雷暴资料及1998～2007年廊坊市雷电灾情统计数据,结合其区域经济状况和人口密度,确定用雷暴日数（M）、雷电灾害频度（R）、经济（GDP）易损模数（E）、经济损失模数（E’）、生命易损模数（L）、生命损伤模数（L’）作为廊坊市雷电灾害易损性评估指标。计算出廊坊市各县（市、区）6个雷电灾害易损性评估指标后分等级进行综合评估与分析,得出各县市区的易损度,并按5级分区法对廊坊市雷电灾害易损度进行区划。结果表明：廊坊市开发区为极高易损区,全市无低易损区和极低易损区。     

卫星资料在监测玉米生长期水分供应中的应用

根据作物干物质增长速度曲线,利用迭代法求出最佳气候条件下的最大干物质累积量,并求出最佳气候条件下的干物质累积速度。再根据干物质累积速度与绿度值的关系,求出最佳气候条件下的最大绿度值,并将其作为标准绿度值。以每年的绿度值的１．６次方与标准绿度值的１．６次方的比除以温度订正系数,求出水分系数,以此来评价玉米生长期水分供应状况     

棉花耗水规律和灌溉随机控制

根据5年田间试验资料,分析了棉花产量与耗水量的抛物线关系,确定了棉花最佳耗水量;根据棉花植株在不同土壤湿度情况下气孔阻力、蒸腾强度和蕾铃脱落率的变化,确定了不同生育阶段的适宜水分指标和干旱指标。在此基础上,研制了棉花灌溉随机控制模型,可以动态预报棉田土壤有效水分含量和实际蒸散量,并从经济效益和水分利用效率的角度提出优化灌溉决策。     

Ecological Implications of Changes in Drought Patterns: Shifts in Forest Composition in Panama

CO₂ concentration is increasing, temperature is likely to rise, and precipitation patterns might change. Of these potential climatic shifts, it is precipitation that will have the most impact on tropical forests, and seasonal patterns of rainfall and drought will probably be more important than the total quantity of precipitation. Many tree species are limited in distribution by their inability to survive drought. In a 50 ha forest plot at Barro Colorado Island in Panama (BCI), nearly all tree and shrub species associated with moist microhabitats are declining in abundance due to a decline in rainfall and lengthening dry seasons. This information forms the basis for a simple, general prediction: drying trends can rapidly remove drought-sensitive species from a forest. If the drying trend continues at BCI, the invasion of drought-tolerant species would be anticipated, but computer models predict that it could take 500 or more years for tree species to invade and become established. Predicting climate-induced changes in tropical forest also requires geographic information on tree distribution relative to precipitation patterns. In central Panama, species with the most restricted ranges are those from areas with a short dry season (10–14 weeks): 26–39% of the tree species in these wet regions do not occur where it is drier. In comparison, just 11–19% of species from the drier side of Panama (18 week dry season) are restricted to the dry region. From this information, I predict that a four-week extension of the dry season could eliminate 25% of the species locally; a nine-week extension in very wet regions could cause 40% extinction. Since drier forests are more deciduous than wetter forests, satellite images that monitor deciduousness might provide a way to assess long-term forest changes caused by changes in drought patterns. I predict that increasing rainfall and shorter dry seasons would not cause major extinction in tropical forest, but that drying trends are a much greater concern. Longer dry seasons may cause considerable local extinction of tree species and rapid forest change, and they will also tend to exacerbate direct human damage, which tends to favor drought-adapted and invasive tree species in favor of moisture-demanding ones.     

Women participation in formal decision-making: Empirical evidence from participatory forest management in Ethiopia

Amid growing emphasis on community-based approaches to natural resource management, there are concerns about the lack of women participation in communal decision-making. We analyze the association between participation of women in decision-making of forest user groups in Ethiopia and several forest management outcomes. We combine longitudinal survey, administrative and forest inventory data and find that participation of women in executive committees (i.e., formal decision-making) is associated with greater forest benefits, and an improved (perceived and actual) condition of the forest. Alternatively, the association between women participation in group-level meetings and outcomes is not robust. This implies that women participation in formal decision-making is required to reach forest conservation and livelihood gains.     

Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Growth and Climate Response of Treeline Trees in Alaska

In this study, we investigated the response of trees growing at the cold margins of the boreal forest to climate variation in the 20th century. Working at eight sites at and near alpine and arctic treeline in three regions in Alaska, we compared tree growth (from measured tree ring-widths) to historical climate data to document how growth has responded to climate variation in the 20th century. We found that there was substantial regional variability in response to climate variation. Contrary to our expectations, we found that after 1950 warmer temperatures were associated with decreased tree growth in all but the wettest region, the Alaska Range. Although tree growth increased from 1900–1950 at almost all sites, significant declines in tree growth were common after 1950 in all but the Alaska Range sites. We also found that there was substantial variability in response to climate variation according to distance to treeline. Inverse growth responses to temperature were more common at sites below the forest margin than at sites at the forest margin. Together, these results suggest that inverse responses to temperature are widespread, affecting even the coldest parts of the boreal forest. Even in such close proximity to treeline, warm temperatures after 1950 have been associated with reduced tree growth. Growth declines were most common in the warmer and drier sites, and thus support the hypothesis that drought-stress may accompany increased warming in the boreal forest.     

Methods of reliability increase in the estimation of seasonal thermal atmospheric conditions from long-term observational data (by the example of the Northeastern part of the Black Sea)

The method is developed of season separation within the annual cycle of thermal atmospheric conditions tracing the regime of the intrusion of relatively cold and warm air flows into the Black Sea area and providing the increase in the estimation reliability of thermal conditions within the actual seasonal periods. The considerable irregularity of the dates of actual season beginning and the possibility of considerable fluctuations of duration of their spring and fall modifications are revealed. It is noticed that the season separation methods change the estimate of their thermal conditions so considerably that the standard procedure of the annual cycle division into the seasons cannot be considered anymore as the method providing the reliability of their determination. It is demonstrated that the season separation method used in the paper also provides the increase in the estimation reliability of the regime of seasonal and long-tern variability of agrometeorological, hydrophysical, hydrochemical, and hydrobiological processes in the Black Sea basin.     

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Changes in growing seasons for 2041–2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5–10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5–15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40–80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean.     

Protecting “First world” markets and “Third world” nature: The politics of illegal logging in Australia,the European Union and the United States

Global forest governance has recently seen the emergence of a timber legality regime. In an aim to regulate global timber trade flows, the US, the EU and Australia adopted laws prohibiting illegally harvested timber from entering their markets. While some view this as a milestone for environmental and social stewardship in the global forest sector, the effects of the regime remain contested.In order to better understand likely effects of the regime, we apply the Discursive Agency Approach to analyze discursive dynamics of policy making among the stakeholders involved in the creation of each law and their effects on governance design and implementation.Based on 120 interviews in the US, Australia, the EU and with global organizations/institutions, as well as 19 informal conversations, 300 documents, and participant observation data, our results show that legality is a powerful concept in forest governance. Drawing attention away from sustainability, it enables discursive divides between the global North and South as well as between wood producers and importers. These divides were crucial for the emergence of the legality regime. While some forest industry groups perceived the new laws as an opportunity, others saw them as a threat. In all three regions this led to coalitions between supportive industry factions and environmental groups. These coalitions were based on a complementarity of goals; environmentalists aimed to protect “Third World” forests while industry groups aimed to protect “First World” markets against growing competition from these former regions. Yet each coalition was composed differently and employed distinct – albeit related – discursive strategies in policy making. This affected the design of each law and its implementation. The shift from sustainability towards legality re-surfaces prominently in implementation. Stakeholder discussions range from coercive “threatening” to more learning-oriented “educating” approaches. We conclude by discussing the effects these discursive struggles in Australia, the EU and the US have on the global timber legality regime.     

Precipitation projections under GCMs perspective and Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) statistical downscaling model procedures

Insect outbreaks are major disturbances that affect a land area similar to that of forest fires across North America. The recent mountain pine bark beetle (D endroctonus ponderosae) outbreak and its associated blue stain fungi (Grosmannia clavigera) are impacting water partitioning processes of forests in the Rocky Mountain region as the spatially heterogeneous disturbance spreads across the landscape. Water cycling may dramatically change due to increasing spatial heterogeneity from uneven mortality. Water and energy storage within trees and soils may also decrease, due to hydraulic failure and mortality caused by blue stain fungi followed by shifts in the water budget. This forest disturbance was unique in comparison to fire or timber harvesting because water fluxes were altered before significant structural change occurred to the canopy. We investigated the impacts of bark beetles on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stand and ecosystem level hydrologic processes and the resulting vertical and horizontal spatial variability in energy storage. Bark beetle-impacted stands had on average 57 % higher soil moisture, 1.5 °C higher soil temperature, and 0.8 °C higher tree bole temperature over four growing seasons compared to unimpacted stands. Seasonal latent heat flux was highly correlated with soil moisture. Thus, high mortality levels led to an increase in ecosystem level Bowen ratio as sensible heat fluxes increased yearly and latent heat fluxes varied with soil moisture levels. Decline in canopy biomass (leaf, stem, and branch) was not seen, but ground-to-atmosphere longwave radiation flux increased, as the ground surface was a larger component of the longwave radiation. Variability in soil, latent, and sensible heat flux and radiation measurements increased during the disturbance. Accounting for stand level variability in water and energy fluxes will provide a method to quantify potential drivers of ecosystem processes and services as well as lead to greater confidence in measurements for all dynamic disturbances.     

中国不同时间尺度地表太阳总辐射估算研究

利用全国95个气象站点逐日地表太阳总辐射和日照时数资料,通过最小二乘法拟合回归建立地表太阳总辐射气候学计算模型。通过对比分析以日值和月值为起点的地表太阳总辐射计算模型的精度,确定了全国不同省份和区域的不同时间尺度（月、季节、生长季和年）地表太阳总辐射计算模型,并探讨了经验系数a、b值的分布及变化特征。结果表明,以日值和月值为起点建立的月、四季、生长季和年地表太阳总辐射计算模型精度无显著性差异,相对误差均低于8.5%,但以日值为起点的计算模型a、b值变异性更小。在以日值为起点建立计算模型的前提下,全国各地a、b值自西北部向南部减小,且从四季到生长季再到年尺度,随着时间尺度增大,a、b值振幅减小。根据不同省份年地表太阳总辐射计算模型经验系数a、b值,全国可划分为新甘蒙地区、青藏高原地区和中东部地区3个区域,分别确定了每个区域四季、生长季和年尺度下地表太阳总辐射计算模型。各区域不同时间尺度地表太阳总辐射计算模型均通过了显著性检验（p<0.01）,其中青藏高原地区和新甘蒙地区模型相对误差低于8.0%,模拟精度较高。     

Climatic drivers of tree growth at tree line in Southwest Yukon change over time and vary between landscapes

Growth of trees at their altitudinal and latitudinal range limits is expected to increase as climate warms, but trees often exhibit unexplained spatial and temporal variation in climate-growth responses, particularly in alpine regions. Until this variability is explained, predictions of future tree growth are unlikely to be accurate. We sampled Picea glauca (white spruce) growing at forest and tree line on north and south aspects in two mountain ranges of southwest Yukon to determine how and why ring-width patterns vary between topographic settings, and over time. We used multivariate statistical analysis to characterize variation in ring-width patterns between topographic factors and time periods, and calculated correlations between ring-width indices and climate variables to explain this variation. Ring-width patterns varied more between mountain ranges than elevations or aspects, particularly in recent decades when ring-widths increased in one mountain range but not the other. Growth responses to summer temperature were notably weaker during warmer time periods, but growth was not positively correlated to summer precipitation, suggesting trees may not be suffering from temperature-induced drought stress. Rather, ring-width indices began responding positively to spring snow depth after 1976. We conclude that tree growth is unlikely to increase in synchrony with rising air temperatures across subarctic tree lines in southwest Yukon. Instead, they may decline in areas that are prone to thin snowpacks or rapid spring runoff due to the negative influence warming springs will have on snow depth and, consequently, early growing season soil moisture.     

祁连山北坡森林资源与林业建设

祁连山北坡森林资源具有团块层次分布显著、地域分布不均和林区生态系统脆弱等特点，并具有保持水土、调节气候、涵养水源等特殊功能，是河西天然巨型的“绿色水库”。为此，对林区提出了综合规划、分区治理和划分为３个林业气候区开发的意见。