气旋爆发性发展产生的北方冬季雷暴天气分析

分析了１９９０年１２月２１日和１９９６年１２月３１日沈阳市出现的两次冬季雷暴天气过程,结果表明：这两次冬季雷暴天气都是由于气旋在短时间内爆发性发展所产生的。气旋的爆发性发展对我国北方除造成大范围降雪外,还可产生强对流天气。而气旋以“Ｕ”型路径移动,入渤海后迅速发展;８５０、７００ｈＰａ爆发性的增温增湿导致其以上气层出现潜在不稳定层结,是预报冬季雷暴的一个着眼点。此外,城市热岛效应对触发冬季雷暴也起     

黄、渤海气旋暴发性发展的个例分析

对1993年6月初的一个在黄、渤海区达到暴发性发展强度，并形成了一个有明显眼区的温带气旋个例进行了诊断研究。结果表明，温度平流和涡度平流、沿岸锋生以及高空急流的动力作用对气旋暴发性发展有重要贡献。     

东亚和西太平洋爆发性温带气旋发生的气候学研究

本文利用历史天气图资料,对1973—1988年中国东部和沿海地区的温带气旋及其爆发性发展情况进行了统计,共有1014个温带气旋发生,其中有1/5达到了爆发性发展的强度,构成了西太平洋爆发性海洋气旋的一部分.它占整个西太平洋爆发性气旋总频数(包括不同来源)的51％.进而对这类爆发性气旋的活动规律进行了分析,概括出了它们的气候学特征.比较亚洲大陆、中国近海及西太平洋地区的爆发性温带气旋表明,西太平洋地区不仅频繁而且强烈.而东、西太平洋地区发生海洋爆发性气旋的对比表明,二者存在着明显的差异.同时也指出,东太平洋地区爆发性气旋的发生并不是一种少见的现象.     

Numerical simulations on the explosive cyclogenesis over the kuroshio current

In this paper, the Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM4) is used to investigate the explosive oceanic cyclone of 14-15 March 1988 over the warm Kuroshio Current. A series of numerical simulations on this cyclogenesis indicates that the favorable weather condi-tions and strong baroclinity in the low- and middle-level are essential to its explosive development. The explosive cyclogenesis occurred over a wide range of sea surface temperatures (SST’s), which was then characterized by strong baroclinity, the low-level jet (LLJ) was initially formed under the favorable atmospheric circulation and then this LLJ advected the moisture and heat northward for the explosive development of the cyclone, the LLJ played an important role in the process of cyclogenesis. Sensitivity experiments show that the latent heating was a key factor to explosive cyclogenesis, the latent heating deepened the short-wave trough, which resulted in the rapid intensification of the cyclone; while in the explosive intensification stage and continuous de-velopment stage, there was less contribution of local surface processes for the explosion of the cy?clone.     

Review of the experience with monitoring uncertainty requirements in the Clean Development Mechanism

In order to ensure the environmental integrity of carbon offset projects, emission reductions certified under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have to be ‘real, measurable and additional’, which is ensured, inter alia, through the monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) process. MRV, however, comes at a cost that ranges from several cents to €1.20 and above per tCO₂e depending on the project type. This article analyses monitoring uncertainty requirements for carbon offset projects with a particular focus on the trade-off between monitoring stringency and cost. To this end, existing literature is reviewed, overarching monitoring guidelines, as well as the ten most-used methodologies are scrutinized, and finally three case studies are analysed. It is shown that there is indeed a trade-off between the stringency and the cost of monitoring, which if not addressed properly may become a major barrier for the implementation of offset projects in some sectors. It is then demonstrated that this trade-off has not been systematically addressed in the overarching CDM guidelines and that there are only limited incentives to reduce monitoring uncertainty. Some methodologies and calculation tools as well as some other offset standards, however, do incorporate provisions for a trade-off between monitoring costs and stringency. These provisions may take the form of discounting emissions reductions based on the level of monitoring uncertainty – or more implicitly through allowing a project developer to choose between monitoring a given parameter and using a conservative default value.

Policy relevance

The CDM Executive Board acknowledged that monitoring uncertainty has not been treated in a consistent manner and the draft standard on uncertainty was subsequently presented in May 2013. This article supports the implementation of this standard for more comprehensive, yet cost-efficient accounting for monitoring uncertainty in carbon offset projects. Moreover, in the light of the ongoing discussions on the New Market Mechanisms as well as the operationalization of the Green Climate Fund and different national mitigation policies, the CDM experience provides valuable insights with regards to the treatment of monitoring uncertainty and constitutes a solid basis for designing uncertainty requirements for new mechanisms to mitigate climate change.     

2014年11月上旬西北太平洋一次极端强度爆发气旋的数值模拟和分片位涡反演分析

基于NCEP 6 h一次,0.5°（纬度）×0.5°（经度）水平分辨率的GFS（Global Forecasting System）再分析数据,利用数值模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）,对2014年11月上旬西北太平洋一次极端强度的爆发气旋事件进行了模拟。在成功复制爆发气旋主要特征的基础上,较详细的分析了本次爆发气旋快速发展的有利环境条件,并利用分片位涡反演的方法,对此次爆发气旋的快速发展过程进行了研究,主要结论如下:（1）本次爆发气旋的爆发性发展阶段维持了约27 h,其最大加深率约为3.98 Bergeron（气旋加深率单位）,最低中心气压约为919.2 hPa。（2）爆发气旋的快速发展与对流层高层高空急流对热量的输送,对流层中层西风带短波槽槽前暖平流和正涡度平流的有利准地转强迫,以及对流层低层暖锋伴随的暖平流过程密切相关。（3）分片位涡反演的结果表明,对流层顶皱褶对应的平流层大值位涡下传和降水凝结潜热过程造成的正位涡异常是本次爆发气旋快速发展的主导因子,而对流层低层的斜压过程贡献相对较小。在气旋爆发期的前期和强盛期,降水凝结潜热释放是爆发气旋发展的最重要因子,而在爆发期后期,随着降水的减弱和爆发气旋的东北向移动,对流层顶皱褶作用所造成的正位涡异常成为维持气旋快速发展的最有利因子。     

东北低压爆发性发展过程的诊断分析

本文对一次东北低压的快速强烈发展过程做了扰动动能、扰动有效位能及涡度收支平衡分析。结果表明:1.气旋爆发性发展前后,扰动动能的产生项变化剧烈,是主要的扰动动能源。气旋爆发性发展前期,以斜压过程为主,而在爆发期,由正压过程制造的扰动动能也有大量增加,同样是不可忽视的,且这时扰动动能通过系统边界与外界的交换很小。2.扰动有效位能在气旋强烈发展前有大幅度增长,由潜热释放造成的扰动有效位能的产生数值很小,平均有效位能向扰动有效位能的转换是扰动有效位能的主要来源。3.在气旋的爆发期,对流层中层及上层的涡度变化最为显著,涡度平衡中,散度项对对流层中下层正涡度的增长贡献最大,而网格尺度及次网格尺度的垂直输送项和涡度平流项对中上层正涡度的迅速增加有着重要意义。     

加油站雷击电磁场影响分析及危害范围界定

为确定加油站雷击电磁脉冲的防护水平和安全间距,根据雷电流特性和油品燃烧爆炸性质,采用ADTD闪电定位系统监测资料,通过对重庆华兴加油站的防雷安全评估,重点分析加油站遭受临近雷击或自身遭受雷击后雷击电磁场影响及起火、爆炸的危害范围。结果表明：在加油站周边防雷设施能保护距离加油站33.54～41m范围的情况下,加油站遭受临近雷击时雷击所产生的电磁场可不考虑;加油站遭受直击雷时,应采用小于5m×5m的屏蔽网格才能使LPZ1区的电磁场处于安全状态;加油站因雷击起火或爆炸的危害范围分别为5.22m和138.95m。结论可为加油站的雷电设防要求及周边规划提供理论依据。     

On the vertical structure of Mediterranean explosive cyclones

An attempt is made to explore the vertical structure of the surface explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean on a climatological basis during the cold period of the year in order to get a better insight in the interaction between the upper and lower levels responsible for the genesis and evolvement of the phenomenon. The vertical profile of the explosive cyclones was examined with the aid of the vertical tracing software of the University of Melbourne Cyclone Tracking Algorithm, using the 1?×?1° spatial resolution of ERA-40 reanalysis data. It was found that about 57?% of the track steps of surface explosive cyclones extend up to 500?hPa. The north-westward tilting of the surface cyclones with height during the stage of explosive cyclogenesis, with a mean distance of 350?km between mean sea and 500?hPa levels, confirms the importance of baroclinicity. About 45?% of the surface explosive cyclones reached their maximum depth before their 500?hPa counterparts, implying the role of surface processes.     

东北太平洋一次强爆发性气旋发展的机制分析

使用FNL Analysis全球格点资料,对东北太平洋一次强爆发性气旋的特殊性进行了分析,发现气旋对其西北部低压系统的吸收合并是其爆发性发展过程中的典型特征,斜压强迫对其快速发展的作用较弱,与西北太平洋爆发性气旋的发展过程存在显著差异。同时,使用Zwack-Okossi诊断方程,从影响爆发性发展的动力和热力因子方面,对其发展机制作了深入的探讨。研究表明,正涡度平流、暖平流和非绝热加热的共同作用使气旋开始爆发性发展,由潜热释放导致的非绝热加热的贡献最大,非绝热加热是其快速发展的主导因子,其中正涡度平流贡献主要来自于中高层,暖平流的贡献主要来自于中低层和高层,而非绝热加热主要发生在中低层,这为东北太平洋爆发性气旋的发展机制提供了一个新的认识。     

预报爆发性气旋的一个综合判据

根据ECMWF数值预报产品的气旋加深率、卫星云图特征、高空槽和高空急流等四个因子对气旋发展的贡献确定发展指数，以发展指数作为预报西北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的综合判据。对1991年1—6月西北太平洋的温带气旋进行试报，预报准确率比单纯的数值预报提高约25%。     

爆发性气旋的前世今生

温带气旋是中纬度地区每日天气舞台上最重要的“演员”.在秋冬季节的中高纬度海洋上有一类快速发展的温带气旋——“爆发性气旋”,尚未受到公众的广泛关注.文章围绕这一主题,首先回顾了温带气旋研究的历史,介绍了“爆发性气旋”这一术语产生的渊源,并对多位学者给出的爆发性气旋定义进行了系统梳理,重点介绍了一个考虑风速影响的、修正的爆...     

Development mechanisms of an explosive cyclone over East Sea on 3–4 April 2012

The development mechanisms of the explosive cyclone that occurred during 3–4 April 2012 over East Sea (Sea of Japan) are examined through numerical simulation and sensitivity experiments using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The characteristics of this explosive cyclone are different from typical cyclonic features observed in this region, including its intensity, deepening rate, and formation time. Numerical simulation, reanalysis data, upper and surface weather charts, and satellite data indicate that the strong baroclinic instability and temperature advection associated with upper-level cut-off low and the interaction of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies between the lower- and upper-level are essential to explosive cyclogenesis.The sensitivity experiments of the explosive cyclone show that latent heat release (LHR) is an important factor in explosive cyclogenesis. The intensification, extent, and movement speed of the cyclone are amplified by LHR as well as the formation of an upper-level cut-off low. The role of LHR is primary important in the generation and evolution of the cyclone. Especially, the LHR contributes to roughly 50% of decrease in sea level pressure (SLP) and 50% of the central cyclone’s low-level PV generation in initial stage. During a 48-h simulation, the contributions of the LHR, surface heat flux, and their interaction on the decrease of SLP of the cyclone are found to be 40.6, −8.2, and 10.5%, respectively. These results reveal that the explosive cyclone has larger deepening rates than OJ cyclones, and develops with a large amount of LHR near the cyclone center.     

Historic and Future Perspectives of Storm and Cyclone

In weather sciences, the two specific terms “storm” and “cyclone” frequently appear in literature and usually refer to the violent nature of a number of weather systems characterized by central low pressure, strong winds, large precipitation amounts in the form of rain, freezing rain, or snow, as well as thunder and lightning. But what is the connection between these two specific terms? In this paper, the historic evolutions of the terms “storm” and “cyclone” are reviewed from the perspective of...     

AMSU资料监测新疆雪盖范围的初步应用

分析了沙漠、森林、草原、平原、高原地区以及水体、积雪等主要地表特征在NOAA-16 AMSU(Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit)对地观测最为敏感的23．8、31．4和89．0GHz通道中的光谱特性,提出了利用这3个通道监测中国新疆地区雪盖范围的方法,并得到了2001年10月到2002年3月新疆地区的旬雪盖图。AMSU监测结果与地面观测记录“点对点”的对比验证结果表明：绝大多数时间段的判识准确率在70％以上,雪盖率的变化趋势与地面观测结果也基本一致,从而确认了监测方法的可靠性及AMSU资料用于积雪监测的能力。另外,简单分析了影响AMSU监测精度的因素,并指出了需要解决的几点问题。     

ANALYSIS OF COMPOSITE DIAGNOSIS OF OCEANIC EXPLOSIVE CYCLONES*

Using the data of ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) to undertake composite diagnoses of 16 explosive cyclones occurring at the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans,it is found that there are a lot of obvious discrepancies on the basic fields between these strong and weak explosive cyclones.The major reasons why the explosive cyclones over the Atlantic are stronger than those over the Pacific Ocean are that the non-zonal upper jet and the low-level warm moist flow over the Atlantic are stronger.The non-zonal upper jet offers stronger divergence,baroclinicity and baroclinic instability fields for explosive cyclones.Anticyclonic curvature at the high level of strong explosive cyclones is easy to make the inertia-gravitational wave developing at the moment of northward transfer of energy and stimulate the cyclones deepening quickly.Warm advection and diabatic heating can cause the upper isobaric surface lifting,as a result,the anticyclone curvature of cyclones enlarges,and wave energy develops easily as well.The most powerful period of the development of explosive cyclones is just the time when the positive vorticity advection center is located over the low vortex.At the upper level,when the distribution of potential vorticity contours changes suddenly from rareness to denseness,and the large values of the potential vorticity both in the west and north sides of cyclones extend downwards together,then cyclones are easy to explosively develop.The formation of strong explosive cyclones is closely related with the non-zonality of upper jet and the anticyclonic curvature.     

Explosive cyclogenesis in the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean

The formation conditions of 21 explosive cyclone in the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean in 1986–1999 are analyzed. The typical values are determined of some characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean accompanying the explosive cyclogenesis: North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Oscillation indices, air and water temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes.     

Assessing characteristics of Mediterranean explosive cyclones for different data resolution

A comparison of two objective climatologies of explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean region is performed. The results are derived from two different mean sea-level pressure reanalysis data resolutions, but from the same assimilation model, in order to quantify the pure impact of higher resolution on the identification and characteristics of explosive cyclones, when the assimilation model is the same. The explosive cyclones were identified with the aid of the Melbourne University automatic cyclone finding and tracking scheme over a 40-year period, using the 6-hourly analyses of ERA-40 mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) on: (a) 2.5?×?2.5 and (b) 1?×?1 latitude–longitude grid. The comparison of the two datasets revealed the significant role of the increase in spatial resolution of MSLP data on the identification and tracking process, and the number of the explosive cyclones in the high-resolution dataset is almost four times greater than the respective one in the lower resolution dataset. However, the comparison of explosive cyclone characteristics, including spatial and temporal variations of explosive deepening, revealed differences in the geographical distribution of the location of the maximum explosive deepening and average explosive cyclone Laplacian of the central pressure. These differences are due to the identification in the higher resolution set of smaller scale and secondary explosives along the strongly baroclinic northern Mediterranean boundaries, south of the Alps and the Pyrenees. Explosive deepening appears a bias to the daytime period from 12 to 18 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) for both datasets, which is more prominent in the LR dataset. Statistically significant difference of pressure tendency between the two datasets appear for the daytime period from 06 to 12 UTC, accounting for better representation of orographic forcing in the HR dataset.     

Ozone content over the Russian Federation in the second quarter of 2014

The review is compiled on the basis of the results of the total ozone (TO) monitoring in the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses the data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under the methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality of the functioning of the entire system is under operational control based on the observations obtained from the OMI satellite equipment (NASA, the United States). The basic TO observational data are generalized for each month of the second quarter of 2014 and for the quarter as a whole. The results are also given of the regular observations of surface ozone content carried out in the Moscow region and characterizing ozone conditions in the surface layer in the center of the European part of Russia.     

温带气旋爆发性发展的中期背景及预报

在研究了冬季(11—1月)西北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展前5天,对流层中高层超长波及长波配置及西风急流、动量输送等物理量特征的基础上,综合出气旋爆发性发展的中期预报着眼点,应用数值预报产品可有效地延长预报时效。