| 预报爆发性气旋的一个综合判据 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 林明智,李修芳.预报爆发性气旋的一个综合判据[J].应用气象学报,1993,4(1):112-116. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 林明智 李修芳 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心 北京100081
(林明智，李修芳)，国家气象中心 北京100081(余鹤书) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据ECMWF数值预报产品的气旋加深率、卫星云图特征、高空槽和高空急流等四个因子对气旋发展的贡献确定发展指数，以发展指数作为预报西北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的综合判据。对1991年1—6月西北太平洋的温带气旋进行试报，预报准确率比单纯的数值预报提高约25%。
|
| 关 键 词： | 爆发性气旋 发展指数 综合判据 |
A Compositive Criterion for Forecasting Explosive Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific |
| |
| Lin Mingzhi Li Xufang Yu Heshu.A Compositive Criterion for Forecasting Explosive Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1993,4(1):112-116. |
| |
| Authors: | Lin Mingzhi Li Xufang Yu Heshu |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081) |
| |
| Abstract: | The contribution of meteorological factors (such as deepening rate,cloud patterns,alofttrough and jet)for explosive cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific is analysed by using the nu-merical prediction productions from ECMWF.A compositive index FZ which depends upon thefactors is given.The compositive criterion for forecasting explosive cyclogenesis is determined.According to the technological process presented,experiments of 24-hour forecast were conductedduring January through June of 1991 over the western North Pacific.The results show that themethod has an accuracy of better than about 25%. |
| |
| Keywords: | Explosive cyclogenesis A compositive index A compositive criterion |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载全文 |
