珠江河口咸潮问题之我见

咸潮只是河口偏于向陆一侧盐度较低（0.5~10）的那一部分盐淡混合或冲淡水体,不宜将河口“咸水”和海洋“盐水”等同或混为一谈;视“咸潮上溯”为“盐水入侵”欠当。咸潮上溯为河口自身物质的随潮运动,基本上是一种被动的行为。咸潮上溯之动力机理,与河口水、盐物质于一年、一月和一天中随潮在河口的进出、“排”“蓄”循环运动过程有关。小潮向中潮变化时期（一月中）及其初落时段（一天中）,河口正处于由“蓄”（进）转“排”（出）阶段,其时表“排”（淡水）、底“蓄”（咸水）,水体高度呈层,受异重流的影响,底部咸潮进一步上溯“冲刺”达盐度最大值。大潮向中潮变化时的压咸效果最佳。     

长江口泥质区的季节性沉积效应

利用长江口泥质区及其邻近海域夏季和冬季的悬浮体、温度和盐度资料,就长江口泥质区悬浮体的季节性分布和沉积效应进行探讨。由于台湾暖流的强烈阻隔作用,夏季和冬季长江入海的泥沙基本滞留在123^o15'E以西的内陆架进行搬运和沉积。长江入海沉积物供应量、台湾暖流、浙江沿岸流和长江冲淡水具有明显的季节性变化规律,致使长江口泥质区的沉积效应具有强烈的季节性,冬季沉积作用弱,夏季沉积作用强。该泥质区是长江入海沉积物的“汇聚区”,其中冬季的沉积物汇聚量显著小于夏季。长江口泥质区和济州岛西南泥质区的沉积过程变化都具有季节性,但有其各自的鲜明特色。     

长江口南港河段咸潮入侵分析*

本文根据吴淞、高桥的大量实测资料,分析了南港河段咸潮入侵的变化特性。利用长江大通站长系列的流量资料,采用流量机率推算水质机率。南港河段每年受到盐水入侵影响,但不同水文年入侵程度相差悬殊。     

长江口水沙入海通量的观测与分析

在长江口用声学多普勒流速剖面仪（ADCP）进行走航式断面观测,结果表明,采集水样获取的悬沙浓度与ADCP记录的声学信号（后向散射强度）之间存在显著相关关系,因此可据ADCP声学数据获得沿观测断面的高时空分辨率的悬沙浓度剖面。分析结果表明．在徐六泾附近断面以往复流占优势．大潮期间单位时间最大水、悬沙通量值出现于涨潮期．落潮历时较长．落潮期水、悬沙通量分别大于涨潮期水、悬沙通量,净通量向海。长江口南槽拦门沙外侧主要为旋转流．涨潮期间内的水、悬沙通量均分别大于落潮期间的水、悬沙通量。2003年11月12日的观测结果表明．潮周期内通过徐六泾断面向海输运的水与悬沙通量分别为10^9m^3和10^8kg量级：径流量与悬沙输运率分别为10^4m^3／s和10^3kg／s量级。1998年以来徐六泾ADCP流量观测数据与同时间的大通径流量之间存在着显著的相关关系．故可由大通径流量估算徐六泾径流量。作为长江人海径流量．以作为历史资料整编的一种手段。结果表明,长江人海年径流总量略大于大通年径流总量：而在枯水期间人海径流量小于大通径流量。     

长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化

通过实地调查和收集长江下游1950－2000年水文、水利工程资料，建立了长江大通以下枯季径流量变化地理信息系统，分析了影响长江大通水文站以下径流量变化的水文过程，探索了这一区间枯季径流量变化的成因与过程。调查研究表明，截止2000年大通以下各类抽引水工程的总数已达64个，抽引水能力达到了4626m^3/s（潮周期内平均轴引水流量）。实际抽引水量呈现很大的年、季波动，这与本区气候干旱情况、农作物生长期、跨流域调水量等多种因素有关。研究表明：大通－河口段沿江两岸大量的抽引水已成为影响长江大通以下枯季入海流量变化的最重要的因素。本文在过去实际抽引江水资料的基础上，估算了过去不同水文、气候背景下长江大通以下枯季径流量的变化幅度及其对入海流量的影响，并利用实际数据进行了验证。在此基础上，探讨了未来长江大通以下枯季的径流量变化趋势。     

三峡水库运行下洞庭湖盆冲淤过程响应与水沙调控阈值

以1951-2011 年洞庭湖区及荆江段干流主要控制站实测径流输沙量资料为依据,分析三峡水库不同蓄水阶段及不同调度方式下洞庭湖盆冲/淤响应,并提出上游来水来沙调控阈值。结果表明：① 荆南三（四）口流量与枝城站流量、荆南三（四）口输沙率存在极显著正相关（p < 0.0001）,决定系数r2分别为0.859 及0.895。② 与三峡水库蓄水运用前（1999-2002）相比,一、二期蓄水阶段及全面试验性蓄水阶段（2008.10-2011.12）洞庭湖盆年均冲淤量由+4796.4×10⁴ t 依次递减为+684.1×10⁴ t、+449.8×10⁴ t 及-559.6×10⁴ t,湖盆冲淤率由+70.25%分别降至+31.13%、+23.56%及-42.64%。③ 预泄调度及蓄水调度期,湖盆泥沙均由以淤积为主转变为以冲刷为主,防洪补偿调度期湖盆泥沙表现为淤积,而在补水调度运用期则表现为冲刷。④ 洞庭湖盆处于冲/淤临界平衡状态时的荆南三口平均流量、输沙率及含沙量分别为970.81 m³/s、466.82 kg/s 及0.481 kg/m³。并认为,为增强湖泊调蓄功能,必须进一步优化三峡水库调度方式,合理调控下泄水沙量。     

长江口水域悬沙浓度时空变化与泥沙再悬浮

根据近年来长江河口及其邻近水域8个测站1年的表层悬沙浓度逐日观测资料,并结合水动力状况,对悬沙浓度的时空变化进行了分析。结果发现,长江口自徐六泾以下悬沙浓度不断增高,并呈现口内夏高冬低,而口外冬高夏低,且量值为口外大于口内,杭州湾大于长江口。表明长江入海泥沙在海洋动力作用下强烈再悬浮;悬沙浓度在时间上呈现明显的大小潮周期和季节性变化。进一步分析认为,海洋动力 (风浪和潮流) 是泥沙再悬浮的主导因素,制约悬沙浓度的年内变化,其中潮流控制悬沙浓度的大小潮周期变化,风浪引起悬沙浓度的季节性变化,河流径流和海洋动力的对比制约悬沙浓度的空间分布。     

长江三角洲前缘近十余年的冲淤演变及工程影响研究

根据1994-2008年国家专业部门测量的长江口口门区水下地形图及相关数据资料,分析了长江河口三角洲近十余年的冲淤过程:1)在长江来沙显著减少的背景下,三角洲出现了由淤到冲的转换,1994-2000年、2000-2008年,长江口门研究区(1 500 km2)净淤积量分别为7.25亿m3(1.21亿m3/a)和-1.23亿m3(-0.15亿m3/a),冲淤转换的临界输沙率约为2.97亿t(大通站).冲淤转换的时间大约发生在2000-2002年;2)三峡水库蓄水加速了长江来沙的减少,近几年入海泥沙减少和河口口门区出现的冲刷有一半左右归因于三峡工程的运行;3)2000年以来,河口口门外水深超过7 m的大部分区域处于蚀退,尤以10～20m区域侵蚀最为强烈,但0m以上潮间带滩地较前一时段淤积加强,1994-2008年,四大滩地的面积平均增长了约34.2％.研究结果表明:入海泥沙减少是长江三角洲由淤积转为侵蚀的主要原因,三峡水库蓄水加剧了长江入海泥沙的减少及三角洲的侵蚀,河口滩地的逆势淤积是近年一系列的河口重大工程影响的结果.     

长江河口咸潮入侵规律及淡水资源利用

长江河口系多级分汊潮汐河口,其盐水入侵有外海入侵、倒灌、浅滩通道水体交换及漫滩归槽等4种形式,时间上有周日、朔望、洪枯季、年际等变化特点,南支-南港河段纵向上存在3条盐度梯度急剧变化分界线,形成其特有的盐度时空变化规律.研究成果对宝钢水源长江引水方案的形成起了重要作用,并为陈行水库的选址、库容设计提供了基础数据.在长江河口建库,研究工作的重点是推算最长连续取不到合格水的天数,它是确定库容的关键数据.     

未来长江口流量和潮位变化及其对河口水质的影响

本文通过长江口实测氯度与流量和潮位资料的相关分析,预估了未来河口水质的变化。计算表明,当大通站下泄流量不足13×10³m³/s时,未来东线调水及海平面上升,将使长江口南支河段水质严重恶化;三峡水库建成后,枯季1-3月增加下泄水量虽可抵消东线调水的影响,但在水库蓄水的10月遇枯水年分,水质将大幅度下降。     

长江口南支上段压咸临界流量分析

Saltwater intrusion in the estuary area threatens the use of freshwater resources.If river discharge increases to a critical value,then saltwater intrusion frequency and salinity level decreases.In this study,long-term river discharge and tidal range data in the Yangtze River Estuary(YRE)and salinity data obtained in the upper South Branch of the YRE were used to analyze the characteristics of different variables and the basic law of their interactions.Two methods,namely,the material analysis method and empirical models,were applied to determine the critical river discharge for saltwater intrusion control.Results are as follows:(1)the salinity might exceed the drinking water standard of China when the river discharge was less than 30,000 m^3/s.Approximately 69%of salinity excessive days occurred when the river discharge was less than 15,000 m^3/s;(2)the tidal range in the YRE roughly varied in sinusoidal pattern with a 15-day cycle length.Exponential relationship existed between daily salinity(chlorinity)and daily mean tidal range.Combining these two features with the cumulative frequency statistics of tidal ranges,it was showed that notable saltwater intrusion occurred when the tidal range was more than 2.7 m at Qinglonggang station.Moreover,the critical discharge was found to be slightly higher than 11,000 m^3/s;(3)various of empirical models for salinity prediction could be chosen to calculate the critical discharge.The values obtained by different models were in the range of 11,000–12,000 m^3/s;(4)the proposed critical discharge to reduce notable saltwater intrusion was 11,500 m^3/s.After the Three Gorges Reservoir operation,the minimum river discharge into the YRE in 2008–2017 was below the critical discharge,thereby suggesting an increase in the minimum river discharge by reservoir regulation in drought periods.     

The impact of water transfers from the lower Yangtze River on water security in Shanghai

Shanghai is a megacity that increasingly relies on water drawn from the Yangtze River estuary. During periods of low flow, water in the estuary can become too saline for use in city water supplies. River flow is measured at the Datong gauging station 680 km upstream from the river mouth. Several existing and planned river water extractions are located below Datong, including the Eastern Route of the South-North Water Diversion Project (ERP). The effect of these extractions on discharge into the estuary and the associated salinity levels may be significant, even though the extractions are not reflected in the discharge at Datong. We estimate the effects of these downstream extractions on water discharge into the estuary (rather than at Datong), particularly the critical discharge level below which salinity compromises water security in Shanghai. Our results show that the ERP will cause the discharge into the estuary to fall below critical levels between December and February in dry years and January to February in normal years. Future water transfer projects along the lower Yangtze River will further compound the problem. Maintaining Shanghai's water security is therefore a significant challenge for China's water resource management institutions.     

20世纪50年代中期以来崇明岛东部盐沼发育对长江入海泥沙的响应

以20世纪50年代中期以来崇明岛东部盐沼6个钻孔潮坪层段为研究对象,根据柱样粒度特征、碳/氮元素含量、有机碳稳定同位素组成（δ¹³C）和C/N比,结合长江入海泥沙通量的变化,研究20世纪50年代中期以来崇明岛东部盐沼发育与长江入海泥沙的响应关系。结果表明：长江入海泥沙通量及组成是20世纪50年代中期以来崇明岛东部盐沼物质粗细变化的主控因素;崇明岛东部盐沼沉积物δ¹³C与C/N比的相关程度、有机质含量与各粒径区间颗粒含量的相关性在不同时期均存在差异;20世纪60年代,长江入海泥沙量达到顶峰,流域不同侵蚀区域的泥沙相互混合,有机质含量与各粒径区间颗粒含量的相关性及δ¹³C与C/N比的相关程度均很差;20世纪90年代以来,崇明岛东部地区进行了高强度的围垦活动,δ¹³C与C/N比的相关程度下降。这表明20世纪50-80年代崇明岛东部盐沼发育受长江入海泥沙控制,20世纪90年代以来崇明岛东部盐沼发育除受长江入海泥沙控制外,还受围垦等人类活动的显著影响。     

长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化

Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000,with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m^3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m^3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.     

特枯水情对长江中下游悬浮泥沙的影响

基于长江中下游气象资料、历史水沙资料和2006 年10 月现场水沙观测资料, 分析了 典型枯水年大通站的月均径流量和输沙率特征、2006 年特枯水情产生的气候背景以及对长江中下游含沙量和悬沙粒径产生的影响。分析表明, 枯水年长江干流输沙量有显著的减少, 2006 年特枯水情下大通站汛期输沙量仅占多年平均值(1985-2000 年) 的19.8%。在特枯水情 和三峡工程蓄水的背景下, 2006 年10 月长江中下游含沙量平均为0.057 kg/m³, 只占 2003-2005 年10 月平均值的20.6%。2006 年10 月长江中下游悬沙中值粒径平均为4.8 µm, 悬沙中值粒径只占多年平均值的26.3%, 占近期平均值的41.8%。含沙量、悬沙粒度和中游 河床冲淤特性的综合分析表明, 城陵矶-湖口河段水沙垂向交换强, 是三峡兴建以后近期河 道调整频繁的河段。洞庭湖和鄱阳湖对长江干流含沙量的贡献较大, 尤以鄱阳湖的贡献最大, 长江中下游其他支流对长江干流含沙量的贡献较小。汉江和巢湖对长江中下游悬沙粒径的影响相对较大, 而洞庭湖和鄱阳湖则对悬沙粒径的影响相对较小。     

Water discharge changes of the Changjiang River downstream Datong during dry season

Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000, with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.     

长江南京段近20年来河槽演变及其对人类活动的响应

利用 1998年和2013年历史水下地形数据,结合2015年和2016年多波束测深、流速与河床沉积物数据,探讨了南京段河槽演变对人类活动的响应规律。结果表明：① 1998~2013年南京河段整体呈现冲刷状态,净冲刷量为0.56亿 m³。② 南京段主河槽发育有平床和沙波等微地貌,两侧发育有水下陡坡。其中,平床和小尺度沙波区域平均流速为0.79 m/s,而巨型沙波区域平均流速为1.41 m/s。③ 人类活动对该河段的水下微地貌演变与河势演变起到至关重要的作用。由于三峡大坝等人类活动的影响,上游来沙量仍将持续低于多年平均值,南京段河槽会进一步冲刷并极可能给涉水工程安全带来威胁。