长江口南支上段压咸临界流量分析

Saltwater intrusion in the estuary area threatens the use of freshwater resources.If river discharge increases to a critical value,then saltwater intrusion frequency and salinity level decreases.In this study,long-term river discharge and tidal range data in the Yangtze River Estuary(YRE)and salinity data obtained in the upper South Branch of the YRE were used to analyze the characteristics of different variables and the basic law of their interactions.Two methods,namely,the material analysis method and empirical models,were applied to determine the critical river discharge for saltwater intrusion control.Results are as follows:(1)the salinity might exceed the drinking water standard of China when the river discharge was less than 30,000 m^3/s.Approximately 69%of salinity excessive days occurred when the river discharge was less than 15,000 m^3/s;(2)the tidal range in the YRE roughly varied in sinusoidal pattern with a 15-day cycle length.Exponential relationship existed between daily salinity(chlorinity)and daily mean tidal range.Combining these two features with the cumulative frequency statistics of tidal ranges,it was showed that notable saltwater intrusion occurred when the tidal range was more than 2.7 m at Qinglonggang station.Moreover,the critical discharge was found to be slightly higher than 11,000 m^3/s;(3)various of empirical models for salinity prediction could be chosen to calculate the critical discharge.The values obtained by different models were in the range of 11,000–12,000 m^3/s;(4)the proposed critical discharge to reduce notable saltwater intrusion was 11,500 m^3/s.After the Three Gorges Reservoir operation,the minimum river discharge into the YRE in 2008–2017 was below the critical discharge,thereby suggesting an increase in the minimum river discharge by reservoir regulation in drought periods.     

基于经验模型的长江口南支上段压咸临界流量

河口区域盐水入侵,威胁三角洲地区城市淡水资源取用及生态环境安全,合理确定压咸临界径流流量,有助于进一步改进流域水库群的调度模式。以长江口南支为例,利用2009-2014年期间60余个潮周期氯度资料,综合分析多种盐度预测经验模型的有效性,确定了抑制咸潮入侵的临界径流流量。结果表明：① 咸潮入侵强度随径流与潮差组合而不同,长江口径流流量小于30000 m ³/s时可发生盐度超标现象,69%的盐度超标天数发生在流量小于15000 m ³/s时期,当径流量小于12000 m ³/s时盐度超标几率达65%;② 盐度与潮差之间为指数型曲线关系,潮差总体呈半月周期变化,根据潮差累积频率分布得到平均意义上“连续10 d盐度超标”临界条件对应的青龙港潮差约为2.7 m,由此推算得到临界大通流量略大于11000 m ³/s;③ 采用多种盐度预测经验模型进行计算,避免连续10 d盐度超标对应的临界径流流量区间为11000~12000 m ³/s,平均阈值取为11500 m ³/s;④ 在三峡及上游梯级水库联合运行后,2008-2015年长江入海最低径流流量有所增加,但仍低于压咸潮临界阈值,建议优化水库调度模式,控制长江入海径流最低流量在11500 m ³/s以上。     

长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化

通过实地调查和收集长江下游1950－2000年水文、水利工程资料，建立了长江大通以下枯季径流量变化地理信息系统，分析了影响长江大通水文站以下径流量变化的水文过程，探索了这一区间枯季径流量变化的成因与过程。调查研究表明，截止2000年大通以下各类抽引水工程的总数已达64个，抽引水能力达到了4626m^3/s（潮周期内平均轴引水流量）。实际抽引水量呈现很大的年、季波动，这与本区气候干旱情况、农作物生长期、跨流域调水量等多种因素有关。研究表明：大通－河口段沿江两岸大量的抽引水已成为影响长江大通以下枯季入海流量变化的最重要的因素。本文在过去实际抽引江水资料的基础上，估算了过去不同水文、气候背景下长江大通以下枯季径流量的变化幅度及其对入海流量的影响，并利用实际数据进行了验证。在此基础上，探讨了未来长江大通以下枯季的径流量变化趋势。     

东线南水北调对黄浦江水质的影响

本文对长江枯季(12—3月)径流的特点、变化规律、河口盐水入侵以及对黄浦江水质的影响等进行了初步分析。长江水量虽然丰富,但枯季径流并不大,枯季径流一般占年径流总量的15%左右。频率50%的平水年各月平均流量都在15000秒立米以下,频率75%的一般少水年枯季1、2月份的月平均流量不足10000秒立米。河口盐度变化随上游来水多少而异,大通站流量在10000秒立米时河口盐度变化敏感,流量再减少河口盐度将急剧增加,便会严重污染河口和黄浦江水质,影响上海市和河口地区的工农业和城市生活用水。因此,在规划长江流域用水时,应使大通站流量在15000秒立米以上,若有困难,至少不能低于10000秒立米。     

基于TOPEX/Poseidon卫星数据的江河流量测算

TOPEX／Poseidon卫星的原始目的是测量海面高度变化信息,为海洋监测服务。作者通过假设基准面的方法,将由TOPEX／Poseidon卫星数据估算的下垫面水位相对变化信息转化为”水位”系列并建立了由TOPEX／Poseidon得出的“水位”与相邻水文站实测流量间的相关关系,进而实现了由TOPEX／Poseidon卫星数据估算河道流量的目的。利用1998～1999年TOPEX／Poseidon在长江下游大通附近的过境数据和对应年份大通水文站实测流量数据,验证了本方法的可行性。研究结果表明：在长江下游河道地区,由TOPEX／Poseidon卫星数据可定量估算出山河流流量信息。     

未来长江口流量和潮位变化及其对河口水质的影响

本文通过长江口实测氯度与流量和潮位资料的相关分析,预估了未来河口水质的变化。计算表明,当大通站下泄流量不足13×10³m³/s时,未来东线调水及海平面上升,将使长江口南支河段水质严重恶化;三峡水库建成后,枯季1-3月增加下泄水量虽可抵消东线调水的影响,但在水库蓄水的10月遇枯水年分,水质将大幅度下降。     

长江干流河道对流域输沙的调节作用

利用长江干流和主要支流上测站1956~2004年的输沙量资料,对干流未测区域的来沙进行了估计。根据泥沙平衡 (Sediment budget) 概念,对长江干流河道的冲淤对来水来沙的响应以及对入海泥沙的影响进行研究发现,长江干流屏山至大通河道平均淤积速率为88.58×10⁶ t/a,河道淤积占总的来沙量及大通站输沙量比例分别为14%与21%。由于河道淤积,大通站输沙量减少了17.5%。总体来说上游淤积较轻,宜昌至汉口区间淤积严重,汉口至大通区间为微冲。长江干流的河道冲淤与流域总的来沙具有显著的相关关系,但各段河道的冲淤对流域来沙的响应各不一样。上游的冲淤与流域的径流量和来沙量均没有很好的相关性,宜昌-汉口段河道冲淤的变化与宜昌站的来沙具有显著的相关性;影响汉口-大通间河道的冲淤变化的主要因素是流域的来水量,河道的冲淤与大通站径流量的存在显著的负相关关系。三峡水库蓄水后整个长江干流的冲淤形势发生了根本的变化。三峡水库的蓄水运用有效地减轻了洞庭湖的泥沙淤积,同时也降低了洞庭湖的对长江干流泥沙的调节作用;长江上游干流河道淤积增强,中下游河道出现冲刷,但不同的河段表现不一;中下游河道冲刷量小于预测值,三峡水库的蓄水运用直接导致了长江入海泥沙的减少。     

Evolution characteristics and drivers of the water level at an identical discharge in the Jingjiang reaches of the Yangtze River

The operation of large-scale reservoirs have modified water and sediment transport processes, resulting in adjustments to the river topography and water levels. The polynomial fitting method was applied to analyze the variation characteristics of water levels under different water discharge values in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River from 1991–2016. The segregation variable method was used to estimate the contributions of the varied riverbed evaluation, the downstream-controlled water level, and the comprehensive roughness on the altered water level at an identical flow. We find that low water levels in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River from 1991–2016 are characterized by a significant downward trend, which has intensified since 2009. Riverbed scouring has been the dominate factor causing the reduced low water level while increased roughness alleviated this reduction. From 1991–2016, there was first a decrease followed by an increase in the high water level. The variation characteristic in terms of the "high flood discharge at a high water level" before 2003 transformed into a "middle flood discharge at a high water level" since 2009. The increased comprehensive roughness was the main reason for the increased high water level, where river scouring alleviated this rise. For navigation conditions and flood control, intensified riverbed scouring of the sandy reaches downstream from dams enhanced the effects that the downstream water level has on the upstream water level. This has led to an insufficient water depth in the reaches below the dams, which should receive immediate attention. The alteredvariation characteristics of the high water level have also increased the flood pressure in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.     

引滦工程对滦河三角洲盐水入侵及土壤盐渍化的影响

引滦工程后滦河三角洲水文过程发生很大变化,滦河入海水量骤减河海动力平衡破坏,海洋作用相对增强,滦河口盐度增加,盐水入侵长度增大,三角洲地下水含盐量增高,土壤盐渍化的面积扩大。     

长江中游荆江河段同流量-水位演化特征及驱动成因

水库运行改变了坝下游水沙输移条件,在河道冲刷的同时,引起水位过程出现适应性调整。本文以长江中游荆江河段为对象,采用多项式拟合法,对比分析1991—2016年间分级流量—水位变化特征,采用基于河流动力学原理的分离变量法,识别河道冲淤、下游控制水位及河床综合糙率等变化对分级流量—水位变化的影响程度。研究表明：1991—2016年间,长江中游荆江河段同流量—枯水位呈下降趋势,2009年以来降幅增大;河道冲刷是引起同流量—枯水位下降的主控因素,河床综合糙率增加抑制了同流量—枯水位下降起到积极作用。1991—2016年间,荆江河段同流量—洪水位经历了先减小后增大的“凹”线型变化,2003年以前洪水特征为“高洪水流量—高水位”,2009年以来逐渐演化为“中大洪水流量—高水位”,同流量—洪水位特性发生转变;河床综合糙率增大是同流量—洪水位抬升的主控因素,河道冲刷抑制了同流量—洪水位的抬升态势。在航道条件及防洪情势上,应重点防控近坝段沙质河段冲刷引起的水位下降溯源传递作用,其洪水流量—水位特性的转变,不利于减缓荆江河段的防洪压力。     

河口河槽季节性冲淤变化及其对河流来水来沙响应的统计分析——以长江口南槽为例

利用长江口南槽1989年12个月的实测地形图和大通站相应的水沙资料,采用GIS技术和数理统计技术分析了南槽的地形变化与河流来水来沙的关系。结果表明:南槽水深与大通站各月平均流量、输沙率和含沙量之间有明显的相关性,说明河口冲淤对流域水沙变化有敏感响应;河槽的响应具有1~1.5月的滞后性。     

长江中下游河床沉积物分布特征

对长江中下游武汉至河口段304处河床沉积物样品进行了粒度测量与分析,通过各参数间的模拟、统计及对比,探讨了沉积物粒度、水动力因素及河床地貌三者间的关系。研究结果表明：本区河床沉积物以中、细砂为主,床底搬运十分微弱,河道相对稳定;从上至下沿程有明显的“粗-细-粗-细”粒径变化,主要反映河流动力地貌、动力沉积特征;粒径在河床的沿程分布总体为北粗南细,说明北岸侵蚀,南岸淤积的特点。研究同时也表明,颗粒因河型不同而迥异;颗粒偏态度-峭度在不同河型中表现各异,对区分顺直微弯分汊和鹅头形分汊河道尤为显著。     

长江中游田家镇深槽的特征及其泄洪影响

长江中游田家镇附近江面最狭处仅650 m, 江底最深处低于黄海基准面以下-90 m, 是长江干流河床突出的最低所在, 距离长江口900 km。通过实地地质地貌调查揭示田家镇深槽形成及其对洪水的渲泄有何影响。 根据地质、水文、地形和直接考察资料, 卡口深槽段长8 km, 系长江自NW-SE斜切过一排强烈褶曲的三叠系厚层石灰岩山地而成, 3个临江石灰岩小山所成矶头导致江流方向变化与流速加速, 以至形成多处涡流, 向江底侵蚀, 而褶皱的石灰岩抗拒侵蚀、溶蚀能力很低, 因而导致远低于海平面深槽的形成, 估计卡口深槽是从中更新世红色风化壳发育的和缓起伏的地面上叠置下来, 已有以10万年年计的长远历史。近数十年多次实测资料比较, 侵蚀淤积有小量变化, 但河床基本稳定。对正常的中、枯水位江流运行没有影响, 但对超过50 000~60 000 m³/s洪水的排泄则有明显的壅阻作用。     

长江口水域悬沙浓度时空变化与泥沙再悬浮

根据近年来长江河口及其邻近水域8个测站1年的表层悬沙浓度逐日观测资料,并结合水动力状况,对悬沙浓度的时空变化进行了分析。结果发现,长江口自徐六泾以下悬沙浓度不断增高,并呈现口内夏高冬低,而口外冬高夏低,且量值为口外大于口内,杭州湾大于长江口。表明长江入海泥沙在海洋动力作用下强烈再悬浮;悬沙浓度在时间上呈现明显的大小潮周期和季节性变化。进一步分析认为,海洋动力 (风浪和潮流) 是泥沙再悬浮的主导因素,制约悬沙浓度的年内变化,其中潮流控制悬沙浓度的大小潮周期变化,风浪引起悬沙浓度的季节性变化,河流径流和海洋动力的对比制约悬沙浓度的空间分布。     

Temporal and spatial changes of suspended sediment concentration and resuspension in the Yangtze River estuary

A detailed analysis of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) variations over a year period is presented using the data from 8 stations in the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, together with a discussion of the hydrodynamic regimes of the estuary. Spatially, the SSC from Xuliujing downwards to Hangzhou Bay increases almost constantly, and the suspended sediment in the inner estuary shows higher concentration in summer than in winter, while in the outer estuary it shows higher concentration in winter than in summer, and the magnitude is greater in the outer estuary than in the inner estuary, greater in the Hangzhou Bay than in the Yangtze River estuary. The sediments discharged by the Yangtze River into the sea are resuspended by marine dynamics included tidal currents and wind waves. Temporally, the SSC shows a pronounced neap-spring tidal cycle and seasonal variations. Furthermore, through the analysis of dynamic mechanism, it is concluded that wave and tidal current are two predominant factors of sediment resuspension and control the distribution and changes of SSC, in which tidal currents control neap-spring tidal cycles, and wind waves control seasonal variations. The ratio between river discharge and marine dynamics controls spatial distribution of SSC.     

长江口水域悬沙浓度时空变化与泥沙再悬浮

A detailed analysis of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) variations over a year period is presented using the data from 8 stations in the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, together with a discussion of the hydrodynamic regimes of the estuary. Spatially, the SSC from Xuliujing downwards to Hangzhou Bay increases almost constantly, and the suspended sediment in the inner estuary shows higher concentration in summer than in winter, while in the outer estuary it shows higher concentration in winter than in summer, and the magnitude is greater in the outer estuary than in the inner estuary, greater in the Hangzhou Bay than in the Yangtze River estuary. The sediments discharged by the Yangtze River into the sea are resuspended by marine dynamics included tidal currents and wind waves. Temporally, the SSC shows a pronounced neap-spring tidal cycle and seasonal variations. Furthermore, through the analysis of dynamic mechanism, it is concluded that wave and tidal current are two predominant factors of sediment resuspension and control the distribution and changes of SSC, in which tidal currents control neap-spring tidal cycles, and wind waves control seasonal variations. The ratio between river discharge and marine dynamics controls soatial distribution of SSC.     

上海洋山深水港建设的地域空间作用分析

论述上海洋山深水港的建港条件及其港区工程组合特征,分析洋山港建成后的地域空间作用。建成后的洋山港水深达15 m以上,并由32.5 km长的东海大桥连接洋山深水港区和上海芦潮港物流园区,可以解决上海河口港不能停靠第五、六代集装箱船的问题,改变了上海港的格局。同时提高了上海国际航运中心在东北亚地区港口中的竞争力,带动了长江三角洲、长江流域及全国的经济发展。     

三峡与南水北调工程建设及海平面上升对上海城市供水水质的可能影响

上海城市供水水源地水质除受沿岸地区经济发展过程中大量污染物排放的影响外，主要受河水盐水入侵的危害，导致严重的水质型缺水问题，正在建设的三峡水利枢纽和拟议中的南水北调工程与全球变暖引起的海平面上升效应相叠架，无疑将影响长江河口段和黄埔江的盐水入侵强度，进而危及上海城市供水水质，着重探讨三峡与南水北调工程建设运营及海平面上升对上海城市供水水源地水质可能产生的综合影响，并提出适应和防范对策。     

长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化

Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000,with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m^3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m^3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.     

长江跨流域供水的水资源初步评价

长江历来都是人们所关注的重要水资源之一。它的丰沛的水量除了满足本流域各种用水之外,能否从其中提供一部分水量向我国北方地区跨流域供水,这是探讨南水北调可能性的关键问题之一。