国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

在整理、介绍主要国际组织、国家、研究机构和一些学者所提出的温室气体减排情景方案、减排目标和设想的基础上,对当前国际上主要的温室气体减排情景方案的温室气体减排目标、大气温室气体浓度目标和温度控制目标进行了归纳、比较和综合分析。研究结果表明：①国际组织和主要国家对温度升高的控制目标总体以2℃为主,即到21世纪末,将大气温度控制在不高于工业革命前2℃的范围内;②国际组织和主要国家的温室气体减排方案一般都倾向于在2050年将大气温室气体浓度控制在450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e（二氧化碳当量）的范围内,但各个方案中有关具体的减排责任分配、减排措施和减排量分歧仍然较大;③在确定温室气体减排目标和减排配额时,国际组织和主要国家一般都按照“共同但有区别”的原则,倾向于为发达国家制定减排目标,但也有个别方案认为发展中国家也应承担量化的减排义务。     

Correlation between land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions in urban areas

Urban areas are the main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous studies have identified the effectiveness of better urban design on mitigating climate change and land-use patterns in cities as important factors in reducing GHG by local governments. However, studies documenting the link between land-use and GHG emissions are scant. Therefore, this study explores the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments in urban areas and investigates their correlations. The study area, Xinzhuang, is a satellite city of Taipei that has rapidly urbanized in the past few decades. Twenty-one potential variables were selected to determine the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments by binomial logistic regression based on the investigation data of national land use in 1996 and 2007. The correlation of land-use change and GHG increments was examined by Spearman rank-order analysis. Results of logistic regression analysis identified that population and its increasing density rate are main driving forces on both land-use change and GHG increments. The Spearman rank correlation matrix indicates that fluctuating urbanization level is significantly correlated with the increase of total GHG emissions, the emissions of residence, commerce, and transportation sectors in neighborhoods; and the emissions of residence and transportation sectors seem closely connected to current urbanization level. The findings suggest that relationships among land-use, urbanization, and GHG emissions in urban areas vary greatly according to residence and transportation characteristics. Land-based mitigation may provide the most viable mechanism for reducing GHG emissions through residence and transportation sectors.     

国际主要温室气体排放数据集比较分析研究

温室气体排放数据集是国际上开展温室气体排放评价与减排责任谈判的数据基础。对国际上温室气体排放的数据集进行了细致的调研和分析,收集并较为全面深入地比较分析了美国能源信息管理局（EIA）数据集、世界资源研究所（WRI）数据集、美国橡树岭国家实验室CO2信息分析中心（CDIAC）数据集、联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）数据集和OECD国际能源署（IEA）数据集等5个全球尺度的国际主要温室气体数据集的主要信息。概括了这5个国际主要温室气体数据集的开发机构概况、分析了数据集的详细特征、定量比较了这些数据集的可用性与差异。     

气候变化与农业——最新的研究成果与政策考虑

全球气候变化将严重地限制农业生产，并引起广泛的饥荒，这种预计的灾害情景已经引起世界的关注和这样的争论，即是否要大幅度地削减温室气体到大气中的排放量。未来气候变化对农业的可能影响现在已经进行了一些详细的研究，虽然可以想象还有很多不确定性，但已进行的所有研究还都没有发现全球的食物供应会受到严重的威胁。采取适应对策在一些国家可以产生节省成本的后果，但采取适应对策所需的新增成本会给发展中国家的发展造成严重的障碍。农业减缓对策的顺利实施，也取决于能否减少技术转让与扩散的障碍，是否能获取可用资金以支持发展中国家的能力建设和其它帮助全球所有地区落实行为转变和技术机遇的措施     

Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from coal and natural gas thermal power plants using life cycle approach

The importance of mitigation of climate change due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from various developmental and infrastructure projects has generated interest at global level to reduce environmental impacts. Life cycle assessment may be used as a tool to assess GHG emissions and subsequent environmental impacts resulting from electricity generation from thermal power plants. This study uses life cycle approach for assessing GHG emissions and their impacts due to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and imported coal thermal power plants using the IPCC 2001 and Eco-Indicator 99(H) methods in India for the first time. The total GHG emission from the NGCC thermal power plant was 584 g CO₂ eq/kWh electricity generation, whereas in case of imported coal, it was 1,127 g CO₂ eq/kWh electricity generation. This shows that imported coal has nearly ~2 times more impacts when compared to natural gas in terms of global warming potential and human health as disability-adjusted life years from climate change due to GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O).     

Greenhouse gases mitigation against climate change: United States-Mexico border study case

Solar radiation is one of the most important energy resources of our planet. The interest in its use as a renewable and clean energy to mitigate the greenhouse gases (GHG) effects has increased significantly. This paper evaluates the measurements of global solar radiation and its energy potential and presents a comparison between both of them, as an example of the effort to reduce GHG emissions. The measurements were made with pyranometers installed in the city of Mexicali, Baja California, located in northwestern Mexico, and the city of Yuma, Arizona, located in the southwestern United States. Separated by a distance of 96 km, both cities have a sustained development and are climatically similar, since they present numerous sunny days, extreme hot temperatures and little precipitation. The results presented show differences in their behavior and in the solar radiation measurement values, especially for the critical spring and summer seasons, with values 15.73% (0.042 kW/m²) higher in Mexicali with respect to Yuma. Energy power is estimated, and it is discussed with some variables as global solar radiation, rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity and climatology of clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy days. With this estimation, the solar energy used and GHG avoided is projected for Mexicali. It is assessed that 291 tons of GHG are prevented. The Mexicali values of potential energy are higher than those of Yuma; therefore, this solar and energy comparative study provides reasons to develop these technologies in Mexico, but solar technologies should be deployed also in Yuma. The measured data at the regional level demonstrate their importance, and the relevance of the proposed mitigation strategy for climate change.     

Climate change risks for severe storms in developing countries in the context of poverty and inequality in Cambodia

Least developed countries are generally regarded as particularly sensitive to climate change due to among other vulnerable locations and low adaptation capabilities. In the present study, we address climate change hazards in least developed countries by presenting a methodological framework, which is suitable for the estimation damage costs as a function of risk aversion, equality, income distribution and climate scenario using state-of-the-art climate model projections. As a case study, the methodology is applied to study severe storms in Cambodia based on two future climate scenarios and data on historical damages from storm events, which are used as a proxy in performing a sensitivity analysis on all input parameters. For the assumptions and parameter ranges used here, the study shows a high sensitivity to the income distribution (reflected by discount rates) and risk aversion and smaller effects from equality measures and extreme wind climate scenario. We emphasize that the assumptions on risk aversion reflecting consumption smoothing possibilities of low-income households clearly depicts that climate risks can be particularly high as a consequence of poverty and therefore recommend that context-specific vulnerabilities and equity concerns in climate risk studies should be included when making assessments for least developed countries.     

Applying a Ruggiero three-stage super-efficiency DEA model to gauge regional carbon emission efficiency: evidence from China

China’s climate change mitigation strategies and efforts are based on accurate regional carbon emission efficiency (CEE) estimates. Decision-making units which are all data envelopment analysis (DEA)-effective cannot be ranked by using the original DEA model. While previous studies omit environmental factors when gauging resources or environmental efficiency. In this study, we combine a Ruggiero three-stage model with a super-efficiency DEA model (SE-DEA) to solve these two problems. Following this method, we consider environmental factors and thereby compare provincial CEE in China in the new production frontier. The main results obtained are as follows: (1) provincial CEE values differ significantly in the first stage and the third stage; (2) in the third stage, only Eastern China reaches the SE-DEA relatively effective level, where CEE rankings in descending order are: Eastern, Central, and Western China; (3) provinces are divided into four categories in terms of provincial CEE values and per-capita GDPs, and therefore, regional climate and development policies could be oriented due to different categories. This efficiency evaluation methodology and the results obtained in our study not only contribute to understanding this issue, but also could be of specific interest to climate change policy makers in China.     

The future of industrial cities and regions in central and eastern Europe

Economic transition in central and eastern Europe (CEE) has had a particularly strong impact on industrial cities and regions. Following their economic collapse, most of them are now confronted with serious problems such as high unemployment and vast ecological damage. The paper presents findings from a pan European research project that investigated the problems of these cities and regions as well as the strategies being adopted to cope with structural change. It examines the differences in approaches and addresses the question whether existing EU policy is suitable for supporting the redevelopment of old industrial cities and regions in CEE countries. The paper concludes with recommendations for future directions in policy making.     

Comparative analysis of the international carbon verification policies and systems

Carbon verification, which can guarantee the reliability and credibility of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data, is the most important part of the daily operations of the carbon emission right trading system. Many international institutions, countries and regions have conducted research on and have practiced carbon verification policies and systems. Through comparative analysis of the international carbon verification policies and systems, they can provide experience for Chinese unified national carbon market to start supporting carbon verification. The paper study concludes that (1) carbon verification systems developed by international institutions focus on the scientific level of verification methods; (2) carbon verification policies and systems issued by important countries and regions draw on International Standardization Organization (ISO)14064 standards based on their national conditions and focus on the scientific level and reasonableness of verification methods; (3) major international experience includes complete verification policies and systems, strict standard verification procedures, diversified verification forms and a focus on key emission sources. Based on the differences in China’s carbon emissions characteristics caused by unbalanced regional economic development and the conditions of carbon verification in seven pilot carbon trading areas, this thesis proposes the following suggestions: pushing forward the establishment of carbon verification policies and systems by accelerating legislation on climate changes; facilitating carbon verification in a coordinated manner; regulating key GHG emission sources; establishing and improving supervision on carbon verification; and intensifying international exchanges and cooperation.

     

Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm

This paper addresses the problem of interdependent failures of critical infrastructures in disasters. Disruptions to critical infrastructure systems such as electric power or transportation frequently cause major social and economic loss in disasters, both directly and through failures in one system leading to or compounding disruptions in another. Strategic approaches regarding infrastructure failures are needed to guide community mitigation and preparedness efforts. This paper defines and provides a conceptual framework for investigating infrastructure failure interdependencies (IFIs) from the standpoint of societal impacts. In order to identify empirical patterns, a unique database has been developed of IFIs observed in major electric power outage events. This paper presents analysis of this data for a major Canadian disaster, the 1998 Ice Storm that affected the northeastern region of the country. The analysis identifies IFIs due to power outage caused by the storm that are of greatest societal concern. These represent potential foci for effective, targeted pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness efforts. The framework and approach are broadly applicable across a range of natural and human-induced hazards.     

Decision support method for GHG emission management in industries

Keeping temperature rise well below 2 °C is Paris Climate Agreement’s main commitment and corporate-level participation will be crucial to achieve national mitigation targets. Hence, companies should adopt measures that allow them to adapt to upcoming scenarios where low-carbon production is expected to become mandatory and a great competitive advantage. However, mitigation strategies cannot be evaluated without consideration of subjective environmental criteria. Consequently, lack of decision support methodologies for climate change evaluation in industries is a barrier for innovation. Aiming at consideration of non-monetary aspects, we develop a support method that incorporates costs, benefits, opportunities and risks related to climate change in manufacturing industries. First, we compared the most relevant multi-criteria decision analysis methodologies and identified an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the most suitable for ranking corporate climate change strategies. Then, we collected global analysis criteria from the most important socially responsible investment indices, and climate change scientific studies. To adapt these criteria to the AHP method, each criterion was sorted into benefits, opportunities, costs or risks hierarchies. Proposed method was efficient for assessing long-term subjective criteria and ranking alternatives for GHG emission management in two large manufacturing companies. A sensitivity analysis of the outcome revealed its consistency and flexibility for ranking alternatives and weighting criteria. Finally, the method is not limited to a particular type of industry and it can be adapted to other areas, such as service companies, sanitation or public sector.     

An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards, it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention), and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7–1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities—thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.     

气候变化谈判的共识与分歧初析

国际社会在应对气候变化领域经过多年磋商和谈判取得了一些重要进展,系统总结和分析了气候变化谈判领域已取得的共识,包括气候变化谈判的科学基础、人类社会对气候变化的重要性认识、策略转变、综合措施、不同经济发展阶段国家应对气候变化的角色认同等方面,综合比较和分析了国际气候谈判领域不同利益集团针对焦点问题存在的差异性认识,包括各国应对气候变化问题的基本思路、派别性立场、温室气体减排目标以及减排活动的范围等内容。     

Energy sector policies in Botswana and their implications for global climate change

Like most African countries, Botswana contributes almost insignificantly to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs). In this context, some have argued that energy policy and legislative measures to regulate emissions in Botswana should not be accorded high priority. This is a misguided view when one considers that each country, no matter how under-industrialized, contributes to the overall global emission problem. Moreover, the least developed countries will have to industrialize in order to meet the increasing economic and social needs of their growing populations. For rapidly growing economies like Botswana, whose annual energy demand is projected to increase by about 4% for the next ten years, the importance of compiling accurate inventories of sources and sinks of GHGs and formulating environmentally-friendly policies can hardly be over- emphasized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the ideal basis for the country-by-country investigations and management of global climatic change; specifically its nature, properties, directionality, characteristics and probable consequences. Botswana was a founding signatory of UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention in 1994. The country is also involved in regional cooperation efforts, within the Southern African Development Community, to enforce regulatory mechanisms to minimize GHG emissions from the energy sector. There exist certain energy-related institutions, policies, and regulations in the country which could mitigate the impact of GHG emissions on global warming. This paper, based on government and other relevant documentation, critically analyses Botswana's energy sector policies in as far as they affect climate change. It is clear that much still needs to be done about energy policies in terms of proper formulation, monitoring, co-ordination, energy pricing and the exploration of energy alternatives to mitigate potentially negative impacts on climate change.     

Perspectives of Natural Disasters in East and South Asia,and the Pacific Island States: Socio-economic Correlates and Needs Assessment

The regions of East and South Asia, and the Pacific Islands are among the most-hazardprone areas in the world. Because of this, during the last century, most of the humancasualties of `natural-triggered' disasters have taken place in this region. This circumstance therefore has become a major global humanitarian concern. Another major concern, specifically for the donor agencies, is the damage sustained by infrastructure resulting from environmental disasters. These recurrent loses take away a significant proportion of the cumulative economic gains accrued from development investments over many years.Stepwise multiple regression results substantiated the fact that many of the socio-economic and demographic variables significantly influence disaster-related deaths and injuries in this part of the world. A comparative temporal analysis has shown that, over the past two decades, demographic variables have become prominent predictors of disaster-loss in South, Southeast and East Asian and the Pacific states.Many countries of the region are lagging behind in understanding and recognizing thebroader scope of disaster mitigation and management. Emerging needs and awarenessamong the decision-makers and the general public, however, have prompted institutionsin many countries to initiate a critical review of the prevailing approaches. Thecountry-specific disaster-management capacities and needs in the region vary widely.There are many differences in historical courses, institutional and administrative settings, sociocultural characteristics, as well as political and economic systems. Development of a common institutional framework for the region, therefore, seems unfeasible. Based upon a regional review, it has become clear that the research calls for improving the understanding of the significance of disaster mitigation and management in light of sustainable development and the emerging global issues. In addition, aspects of human resource development to enhance institutional mitigation and response capacities are emphasized.     

大气气溶胶辐射强迫及气候效应的研究现状

由于工业活动的影响,对流层气溶胶含量明显增加。他们通过直接吸收和反射太阳辐射以及改变其它辐射强迫因子（云、臭氧）的大小间接影响地气系统的能量收支。近年来研究表明：人类活动产生的气溶胶具有与CO₂温室气体大小相当、符号相反的辐射强迫效应。他们在全球或区域范围内削弱温室气体的变暖趋势,对气候变化造成很大的影响。文章就人为气溶胶辐射强迫及气候效应近年来的研究状况做了介绍。     

An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments

This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed.     

Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and its geodynamical implications

Risk reduction as an outcome only takes place if results of risk estimation studies are used to develop action plans for risk-management and risk-reduction strategies. This paper describes an automated model that uses the output of existing earthquake loss estimation methodologies to support decision makers in evaluating a set of competing seismic mitigation strategies and exploring their impact in reducing socio-economic losses of urban settlements. The proposed model is structured to quantify the monetary value of earthquake losses and to find an optimal budget allocation assigned to each mitigation strategy based on user input. The optimization method takes into account both pre- and post-earthquake expenditures, such as costs of building upgrades, critical facility enhancement, temporary shelter provisions, debris removal, hospitalization and human casualty. The system consists of five main modules: (1) building damage function; (2) mitigated damage function; (3) cost estimation function; (4) optimization function; and (5) user interface function. Whereas the optimization function provides the optimal values assigned to each mitigation alternative based on the estimated costs and a defined budget, the user interface allows the decision maker to interact with the software in each step and plan mitigation strategies that best suit the user’s socio-economic requirements and limitations. The outputs of the proposed model are presented with respect to an application in a pilot study area within a vulnerable city district of Tehran, Iran.     

A case study in surface mining simulation with special reference to the problem of model evaluation

Summary This paper discusses the framework for modelling and analysing the materials handling aspects of a conventional contour mine as related to the smaller to medium-size coal mining companies. Special emphasis is placed on model evaluation. The methodology employed consists of: (a) using the surface geometry of the area to be stripped for developing the equations that are used for analysing the critical factors affecting pit layout, (b) effecting engineering and graphical layout of the mine, (c) collecting — through time studies — and analysing equipment characteristic data, (d) constructing the model, and (e) evaluating the model. The results show that the graphical approach for model construction and evaluation is fast, accurate, and reliable.