气候变化与农业——最新的研究成果与政策考虑

全球气候变化将严重地限制农业生产，并引起广泛的饥荒，这种预计的灾害情景已经引起世界的关注和这样的争论，即是否要大幅度地削减温室气体到大气中的排放量。未来气候变化对农业的可能影响现在已经进行了一些详细的研究，虽然可以想象还有很多不确定性，但已进行的所有研究还都没有发现全球的食物供应会受到严重的威胁。采取适应对策在一些国家可以产生节省成本的后果，但采取适应对策所需的新增成本会给发展中国家的发展造成严重的障碍。农业减缓对策的顺利实施，也取决于能否减少技术转让与扩散的障碍，是否能获取可用资金以支持发展中国家的能力建设和其它帮助全球所有地区落实行为转变和技术机遇的措施

CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE RESEARCH FINDINGS AND POLICY CONSIDERATION

Global climate change that would seriously limit agricultural production and cause widespread famine and starvation is the type of disaster scenario that has played on the edge of debate on whether to make significant cuts in the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. The agricultural impacts of potential climate change have now been investigated in some detail. Although considerable uncertainties remain, overall studies conducted to date do not find the global food supply has seriously been threatened. Even though some adaptation strategies may result in cost savings for some countries, but the incremental costs of adaptation strategies could result in a serious burden for developing countries. Agricultural mitigation also depends on reducing barriers to the diffusion and transfer of technology, mobilizing financial resources, supporting capacity building in developing countries, and other approaches to assist in the implementation of behavioral changes and technological opportunities in all regions of the globe.