气候变化与农业

全球气候变化将严重地限制农业生产，并引起广泛的饥荒、，这种预计的灾害情景已经引起斩关注和这样的争论，即是否要大幅度地削减温室气体到大气中的排放量，未来气候变化对２的可能影响现在已经进行了一些详细的研究，虽然可以想象还有很多不确定性，但已进行的所有研究还都没有发现全球的食物供应会受到严重的威胁。采取适应对策在一些国家可以产生节省成本的后果，但采取适应对策所需的新增成本会给发展中国家的发展造成严重的障     

气候变化的影响与长期气候目标的建立研究进展

IPCC报告指出,气候变化已经并将继续显著地影响人类赖以生存和发展的资源、生态和环境,并对经济、水资源、海岸带以及生态系统造成重大影响。随着全球气候的进一步增暖,各种不利影响的严重程度可能会加剧。在研究气候变化带来影响的基础上,分析了气候变化的驱动因素,提出减缓气候变化影响应该建立一个长期的气候目标,并建议采取相应对策。     

气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具

气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估. 因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点. 首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径, 同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用. 常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表, 另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力. 文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向.     

全球变化的生态系统适应性

全球变化的适应性研究已经成为全球变化研究的重点,亦是制定全球变化适应对策的关键。基于全球变化的定义,从生态系统对全球变化适应的4个方面：①对大气CO2浓度变化的适应性;②对气候变化的适应性;③对CO2浓度与气候变化协同作用的适应性;④对人为干扰的适应性,综述了当前的研究成果,进而提出了未来关于全球变化的生态系统适应性研究需要重视的方面,尤其是关于生态系统对全球变化响应的阈值研究应引起高度重视。     

全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策

全球气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化已经导致许多地区水资源短缺、生态系统服务退化和巨灾风险增加等一系列生态环境问题。如何有效地应对气候变化风险,促进全球和区域的可持续发展,是当前全球变化研究中的一个重要论题。国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策(2014CB954300)"以可持续性科学为主要依据,以有序人类活动理念为指导思想,以实地观测、模型模拟和情景分析为主要手段,揭示气候变化和人类活动的定量关系,评估气候变化条件下人类活动对区域生态系统服务和人类福祉的影响,建立气候变化—有序人类活动—区域可持续发展耦合模型,提出景观及区域尺度上人类适应全球变化的综合策略。该研究项目将有助于发展和完善景观可持续性科学,促进我国半干旱地区主动适应全球气候变化的土地系统设计的理论和实践。     

减缓气候变化的若干建议

越来越多研究和观测结果表明气候变化已经给人类生活和社会经济带来影响,全球气候变化问题已经成为世界各国所必须面对的挑战。目前国际科学界认为,气候变化至少部分是由人类活动引起的,解决气候变化问题的根本措施之一是减少温室气体的人为排放。主要针对如何减缓气候变化的影响,建议采取相应的政策措施,以实现减缓气候变化的目标。     

中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示

气候变化的社会影响是当前全球变暖影响研究的一个重要领域。以古鉴今,历史上应对气候变化的经验和教训可以为现代人类应对以全球变暖为突出标志的气候变化挑战提供宝贵的借鉴。总结中国历史气候变化对社会影响研究领域的成果,归纳得到了历史时期气候变化对中国社会发展影响的若干认识及其对适应未来气候变化的启示。主要结论是:历史气候变化影响的总体特征是"冷抑暖扬",但影响与响应存在区域差异;社会经济的衰落与百年尺度的气候由暖转冷呈现同期性,与暖期相伴的社会快速发展会增加社会对资源、环境需求的压力,导致社会脆弱性加大;历史上应对气候变化策略因时、因地、因主体而异;而以政府为主导的主动因地制宜适应是应对气候变化的有效策略。     

我国东北地区多年冻土退化情景下的适应对策

气候变化和人类活动加剧,致使我国东北地区多年冻土退化严重.调查结果表明,该地区适应冻土退化的能力较弱,总体表现为:当地居民莺视气候变化,生态保护政策效果显著,产业结构调整潜力较大,但林业管理体制存在不足.依据调查分析结果,提出了适应冻土退化的对策建议:政府部门应加强对冻土退化适应措施的政策引导,建立合理的生态补偿机制,严格执行各项政策措施,加强森林火灾预防和宣传教育工作.     

海平面上升对我国沿海地区经济发展的影响与对策

全球海平面上升将会带来的严重影响,已引起世界各国政府和科学家的广泛关注。1991年,联合国环境规划署发布的“当前全球环境状况”中指出:“全球变暖将会加速海平面升高,……会引起严重的社会经济后果,会威胁低洼岛屿及沿海地区”。1992年,联合国环境与发展大会通过的“21世纪行动议程”中提出:要监测气候变化对环境的影响,而海平面变化也是主要监测内容之一。“大会呼吁各国政府重视对上述问题的研究并将其纳入“政府决策进程”。 中国科学家也已经注意到,海平面上升虽然是缓慢而持续的现象,但其长期累积值将会相当大,加之,我国海岸线长,沿海地区地质结构复杂,随着经济建设的发展所产生的地下水过量开采、土层压实、水位抬升等引起的相对海平面上升更加严重,加剧了海平面上升的危害,并将对我国沿海地区的经济发展带来许多非常不利的影响。     

全球生态系统的状况与趋势

简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目状况与趋势工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉：现状与趋势》中的第3部分，即“对提供生态系统服务的各类系统的评估”。评估结果表明，在20世纪的后50年，全球生态系统的变化幅度和速度皆超过了人类历史上有记录的任何一个相等时间段的情况，目前人类活动实际上已经显著地改变了地球上的所有生态系统。这些变化主要表现在：① 大约1/4的地球陆地表层已经转变为垦殖系统，而且在1950年之后的30年中，转变为农田的土地面积比1700—1850年这150年间转变的总和还要多；②全球大多数的重要流域，由于水资源利用造成的栖息地丧失与破碎化，以及由于养分、沉积物、盐分及有毒物质造成的污染，已经显著地破坏了河流、湖泊和盐水沼泽等湿地生态系统的功能与生物多样性；③ 旱区系统存在着水资源匮乏、过度垦殖、过度放牧和过度砍伐树木等问题，生态状况尤其令人担忧；④ 栖息地的丧失与破碎化、过度开发、污染以及气候变化，已经对海滨系统造成了严重的生态威胁；⑤ 不可持续的农业开发模式，已经严重地破坏了热带森林生态系统的结构与功能。     

Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria

Understanding climate variability and change is essential for designing adaptation policies and strategies to deal with the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector. This Paper aims at assessing climate variability/change, the perception of rural farmers on climate change and preferred  adaptation strategies among the farmers in some selected farming communities in Nigeria. The study thus used both meteorology data and social survey, to examine variability/change in climate and factors determining the adaptation techniques adopts by rural farmers. The results show a relatively uniform temperatures and some seasonal variations in recent years (diurnal range of temperature is about 10 °C) but the rainfall shows much more seasonal variations. The rainfall has relatively undeviating trend from 1981 to 1996 but the trend appears to be upwards from the year 1997 to 2010. About 72.8% participants responded in the affirmative that climate is changing but there appears to be a significant relationship between the length of farming experiences and farmers’ perceptions of climate change adaptation techniques. Water-related (about 53%) and nutrient related (about 52%) technologies appear to have a high preference among the farmers. The major driver that determines farmers’ preference for climate change adaptation techniques is their incomes and experiences.     

Farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures to climate change and influential factors: a study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Adaptation to climate change in agricultural settings depends on understanding farmers’ perceptions of the nature of climate change, their agency in adapting and the efficacy of adaptive measures themselves. Such knowledge can improve mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study addresses the limited understanding of how farmers appraise their private adaptive measures and influential factors. It uses data from structured interviews with 598 rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Based on protection motivation theory, farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures were measured by perceived self-efficacy, perceived adaptation efficacy and perceived adaptation cost. Multiple regressions were used to understand significant factors affecting those assessments. Some demographic and socio-economic factors, belief in climate change, information and objective resources were found to influence farmers’ adaptation assessments. It is shown that the sources and quality of information are particularly important. The improvement of both the accessibility and usefulness of local services (e.g. irrigation, agricultural extension, credit and health care) is deemed a necessity for successful adaptation strategies in the Mekong Delta. The paper also shows the application of PMT in measuring farmers’ appraisals of private adaptive measures to climate change, thereby opening this area for further research.     

Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.     

Climate change and the resilient society: utopia or realistic option for German regions?

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia.     

Climate change and the resilient society: utopia or realistic option for German regions?

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia.     

Micro-level perception to climate change and adaptation issues: A prelude to mainstreaming climate adaptation into developmental landscape in India

Climate change adds another dimension of challenges to the growth and sustainability of Indian agriculture. The growing exposure to livelihood shocks from climate variability/change and limited resource base of the rural community to adapt has reinforced the need to mainstream climate adaptation planning into developmental landscape. However, a better understanding of micro-level perceptions is imperative for effective and informed planning at the macro-level. In this paper, the grass-root level perspectives on climate change impacts and adaptation decisions were elicited at farm level in the Moga district of Punjab and Mahbubnagar district of Telangana, India. The farmers opined that the climatic variability impacts more than the long-term climate change. They observed change in the quantum, onset and distribution of rainfall, rise in minimum as well as maximum temperature levels, decline in crop yield and ground water depletion. The key socio-economic effects of climate change included decline in farm income, farm unemployment, rural migration and increased indebtedness among farmers. In order to cope with climate variability and change thereon, farmers resorted to adaptation strategies such as use of crop varieties of suitable duration, water conservation techniques, crop insurance and participation in non-farm activities and employment guarantee schemes. Farmers’ adaptation to changing climate was constrained by several technological, socio-economic and institutional barriers. These include limited knowledge on the costs–benefits of adaptation, lack of access to and knowledge of adaptation technologies, lack of financial resources and limited information on weather. Besides, lack of access to input markets, inadequate farm labour and smaller farm size were the other constraints. Further, on the basis of the grass-root elicitation a ‘Need-Based Adaptation’ planning incorporating farmers’ perceptions on climate change impacts, constraints in the adoption of adaptation strategies and plausible adaptation options were linked with the most suitable ongoing programmatic interventions of the Government of India. The study concluded that micro-level needs and constraints for various adaptation strategies and interventions should be an integral part of the programme development, implementation and evaluation in the entire developmental paradigm.     

A Profile of International Climate Change Science in the Past One Hundred Years*

Climate change is one of the most active research fields currently, which has attracted extensive attention from the international community. In order to better understand the development situation and research status of international climate change science, in this paper we took the SSCI and SCI databases as data sources, collected the relevant literatures since 1900 based on the key words related to climate change, and made some statistics and analysis of the literatures of the past one hundred years to reveal the development process of climate change research as well as the development and evolution of its research topics and hot spots. The results showed that the climate change research began in the late 18 th century and early 19 th century, and the academic debate about global warming and global cooling started in the early 1970s. The international programs and projects led by a range of international organizations and intergovernmental bodies have contributed significantly to the rapid development of climate change research. The United States and the United Kingdom have long been the core countries of climate change research. The proportion of Chinese papers has risen rapidly in the last decade. The intensity and scope of scientific research cooperation are constantly expanding. Current research focuses on climate model/modeling, climate simulation, climate policy, climate sensitivity, climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and rate of climate change.     

Anticipatory Adaptation Approaches to Climate Change--A Review and Discussion of Southern Australia’s Sustainable Water Management and Its Strategies and Shortcomings

Climate change issues has been discussed and argued for decades. It has been widely recognized that climate change will bring more serious issues to environment vulnerable areas than other areas. Southern Australia is one of the typical examples of vulnerable areas where water deficiency is enhanced by climate change. Although, this area has been successfully adapted with drought environment for decades, those shortcomings of strategies are highlighted by climate change events. In the interests of sustainable water management, Southern Australia’s experiences on possible anticipatory adaptation approaches, especially on mitigation of risks and costs of drought could be expected to provide recommendations to planning and management actions in the future     

Adaptation policy and adaptation realities: local social organization and cross-scale networks for climate adaptation on Mount Kilimanjaro

Least developed countries have prepared national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) to coordinate international adaptation funding to reduce social vulnerability to climate change. The adaptation programs have been written for consistency with existing sectoral policies and development agendas—policies which have thus far led to inequitable and incomplete decentralization of responsibility to organize and manage adaptation at the local level. The capacity of local social organization and of cross-scale networks and flows of knowledge and resources from higher levels of government is insufficient to facilitate socially equitable and sustainable adaptation to climate change. Tanzania’s NAPA, poverty reduction strategy paper, and sectoral policies for forest, water, and agriculture/livestock illustrate the coordination of adaptation plans with existing policies. National and regional statistics and a survey of households on Mount Kilimanjaro—a regional priority for climate adaptation in Tanzania—demonstrate significant gaps in local social organization and cross-scale networks for adaptation. Challenging existing structural causes of vulnerability will be difficult under adaptation plans written for complementarity with the very policies that have produced social inequality. Outside of a few development projects of limited geographic extent, there is limited evidence for socially equitable and sustainable adaptation outcomes. Sustainable adaptation will require substantial new commitments to developing local capacity and cross-scale networks.