Risk,perception and adaptation to climate change: evidence from arid region,India

The paper contributes to the growing literature highlighting the significance of assessing risk and vulnerability, micro-level perceptions and adaptation decision-making in building resilience of farm communities to climate change in dryland region of India. To select a region for grassroots enquiry, spatial differential in risk to climate change was assessed in Rajasthan, using IPCC AR5 framework. Among the highly vulnerable and risky districts, Bikaner district was selected for elicitation of micro-level imperatives. Rising atmospheric temperature, inter-seasonal displacements of rainfall and recurrence of extreme events were perceived by the farmers resulting in resource degradation, production risks and erosion of households’ socio-economic dynamics. As risk preventive measures, suitable adjustment in agricultural practices, natural resource management, shift to off-farm activities and other relief measures were adopted by the farmers. Farmer’s choice of adaptation was influenced by several climatic, socio-economic and infrastructural & institutional factors in varying degree. Moreover, several financial, economic, infrastructural and informational bottlenecks to adaptations were reported during household survey and FGDs. The results suggest that capturing grassroots evidence is crucial for directing locally tailored adaptation strategies, along with the improving deficiencies in the developmental pathways for climate-resilient agriculture.

     

Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria

Understanding climate variability and change is essential for designing adaptation policies and strategies to deal with the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector. This Paper aims at assessing climate variability/change, the perception of rural farmers on climate change and preferred  adaptation strategies among the farmers in some selected farming communities in Nigeria. The study thus used both meteorology data and social survey, to examine variability/change in climate and factors determining the adaptation techniques adopts by rural farmers. The results show a relatively uniform temperatures and some seasonal variations in recent years (diurnal range of temperature is about 10 °C) but the rainfall shows much more seasonal variations. The rainfall has relatively undeviating trend from 1981 to 1996 but the trend appears to be upwards from the year 1997 to 2010. About 72.8% participants responded in the affirmative that climate is changing but there appears to be a significant relationship between the length of farming experiences and farmers’ perceptions of climate change adaptation techniques. Water-related (about 53%) and nutrient related (about 52%) technologies appear to have a high preference among the farmers. The major driver that determines farmers’ preference for climate change adaptation techniques is their incomes and experiences.     

Exploring the relationship between local institutions in SAT India and adaptation to climate variability

This paper examines the relationship between local institutions and adaptation to climate variability in four semi-arid villages in India. Based on a qualitative survey, it draws attention to the constraints that farming households face, the role of institutions, and the implications for their capacities to adapt. Using an institutional framework, the study examines the role of local institutions in facilitating community adaptation to perceived climate variability. It was found that at the institutional and community level farmers rely on government schemes that provide social safety nets and the private sector such as moneylenders as sources of adaptation options regarding access to credit. Serious constraints emerged, however, in terms of adaptation to what may be a more challenging future. These constraints were further explored by means of grounded theory. The lack of collective feeling and action has hindered bargaining for better market prices and the development of alternate livelihood options. The need for better financial inclusion and access to more formal systems of finance is necessary to increase the overall adaptive capacity of households. During crisis situations or climatic shocks, the absence of these systems means the sale of household assets and resources especially among small and landless groups of farmers. Overall, rural households perceive that public, civic, and private institutions play a significant role in shielding them against the adverse effects of climate variability. The perceived importance of different institutions is, however, different across different categories of farmers, women, and labourers.     

Farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures to climate change and influential factors: a study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Adaptation to climate change in agricultural settings depends on understanding farmers’ perceptions of the nature of climate change, their agency in adapting and the efficacy of adaptive measures themselves. Such knowledge can improve mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study addresses the limited understanding of how farmers appraise their private adaptive measures and influential factors. It uses data from structured interviews with 598 rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Based on protection motivation theory, farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures were measured by perceived self-efficacy, perceived adaptation efficacy and perceived adaptation cost. Multiple regressions were used to understand significant factors affecting those assessments. Some demographic and socio-economic factors, belief in climate change, information and objective resources were found to influence farmers’ adaptation assessments. It is shown that the sources and quality of information are particularly important. The improvement of both the accessibility and usefulness of local services (e.g. irrigation, agricultural extension, credit and health care) is deemed a necessity for successful adaptation strategies in the Mekong Delta. The paper also shows the application of PMT in measuring farmers’ appraisals of private adaptive measures to climate change, thereby opening this area for further research.     

Uneven socio-ecologies of Hispaniola: Asymmetric capabilities for climate adaptation in Haiti and the Dominican Republic

This article adopts a “capabilities” approach to climate justice to examine a globally unique phenomenon: a decade of unprecedented surface area growth in Lake Azuéi (the largest lake in Haiti) and Lake Enriquillo in the Dominican Republic (the largest lake in the Caribbean region). The objective was to explore how two neighbouring communities and their governments respond to large-scale environmental change within connected but uneven political ecological contexts. Current climate change impacts in this bi-national island present an opportunity to better understand not only local climate justice but also how fragmented sovereignty, territoriality, and citizenship regimes may affect processes of climate adaptation. The researchers conducted 27 semi-structured interviews in the Dominican Republic and 11 in Haiti, with open ended questions. The data analysis explores impacts of the lakes’ growth; perceived causes and solutions; access to assistance; views on responsibility; and capacities for mobilization, bi-national cooperation, and international partnerships. The article argues that different capabilities for climate adaptation are shaped by historical path dependencies, local institutional contexts, and international linkages; and that attaining climate justice requires attention to these factors within a collective normative framework. The conclusion examines how climate science, research partnerships, and citizen participation might be leveraged to help build binational adaptation strategies grounded in a capabilities approach to climate justice.     

Circulating climate services: Commercializing science for climate change adaptation in Pacific Islands

In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy.     

Differential impacts of climate change on communities in the middle hills region of Nepal

There is a growing understanding that the impacts of climate change affect different communities within a country, in a variety of ways—not always uniformly. This article reports on research conducted in the middle hills region of Nepal that explored climate change vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity across different well-being groups, genders of the head of household and household location. In the study region, dry land farming has increasingly experienced climate-induced changes to farm productivity and natural resources. The experience of vulnerability to decreased livelihood options and natural resource hazards due to a changing climate varied according to household wealth and well-being status, with very poor and poor households more vulnerable than medium and well-off households. The research indicates that the climate change adaptation would benefit by considering: (i) differential impacts of vulnerability mainly based on well-being status of households; (ii) understanding of the local socio-political context and underlying causes of vulnerability and its application; and (iii) identifying vulnerable populations for the units of vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning.     

Adaptation policy and adaptation realities: local social organization and cross-scale networks for climate adaptation on Mount Kilimanjaro

Least developed countries have prepared national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) to coordinate international adaptation funding to reduce social vulnerability to climate change. The adaptation programs have been written for consistency with existing sectoral policies and development agendas—policies which have thus far led to inequitable and incomplete decentralization of responsibility to organize and manage adaptation at the local level. The capacity of local social organization and of cross-scale networks and flows of knowledge and resources from higher levels of government is insufficient to facilitate socially equitable and sustainable adaptation to climate change. Tanzania’s NAPA, poverty reduction strategy paper, and sectoral policies for forest, water, and agriculture/livestock illustrate the coordination of adaptation plans with existing policies. National and regional statistics and a survey of households on Mount Kilimanjaro—a regional priority for climate adaptation in Tanzania—demonstrate significant gaps in local social organization and cross-scale networks for adaptation. Challenging existing structural causes of vulnerability will be difficult under adaptation plans written for complementarity with the very policies that have produced social inequality. Outside of a few development projects of limited geographic extent, there is limited evidence for socially equitable and sustainable adaptation outcomes. Sustainable adaptation will require substantial new commitments to developing local capacity and cross-scale networks.     

Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.     

An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments

This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed.     

Adaptation of climate variability/extreme in arid environment of the Arabian peninsula by rainwater harvesting and management

Water management in Saudi Arabia is facing major challenges due to the limited water resources and increasing uncertainties caused by climate change. The rainfall and temperature records of the Saudi meteorological data for more than three decades were analyzed for policy suggestions in water sectors based on the changing rainfall patterns. The trends in the annual aridity and rain indices were also examined to define the changing climate conditions and for determining the dry months in different cities of the Kingdom. An increased annual and maximum rainfall was observed for six cities while a decreasing trend in both annual and maximum rainfall was observed for the same number of cities highlighting the variability of rainfall in the whole region. An increasing maximum rainfall with decreasing annual rainfall was observed for the rest of the cities signifying the more extreme rainfall evens and resulting floods of short durations. The changing rainfall trends were also observed for different months during 31 years of the recorded period in addition to the varying climate pattern for different cities within the same district. Finally, these preliminary assessments of any systematic changes in view of the increased rain intensities and extreme climate events are viewed to demonstrate the value rainwater harvesting and management as a local adaptation to the climate variability and extreme in the Kingdom.     

Assessment of the effects of climate and land cover changes on river discharge and sediment yield,and an adaptive spatial planning in the Jakarta region

In Jakarta, climate change has been detected through rising air temperatures, increased intensity of rainfall in the wet season, and sea level rise. The coupling of such changes with local anthropogenic driven modifications in the environmental setting could contribute to an increased probability of flooding, due to increase in both extreme river discharge and sedimentation (as a result of erosion in the watersheds above Jakarta and as indicated by sediment yield in the downstream area). In order to respond to the observed and projected changes in river discharge and sediment yield, and their secondary impacts, adaptation strategies are required. A possible adaptation strategy is through policy making in the field of spatial planning. For example, in Indonesia, presidential regulation number 54 year 2008 (Peraturan Presiden Nomor 54 Tahun 2008—Perpres 54/2008) was issued as a reference for the implementation of water and soil conservation. This paper assesses the impact of climate and land cover change on river discharge and sediment yield, as well as the effects of Perpres 54/2008 on that river discharge and sediment yield. The spatial water balance model Spatial Tools for River Basins and Environmental and Analysis of Management Option was used for the runoff computations, whilst the Spatial Decision Assistance of Watershed Sedimentation model was used to simulate erosion, Sediment Delivery Ratio, and sediment yield. The computation period is from January 1901 to December 2005, at the scale of the following watersheds: Ciujung, Cisadane, Ciliwung, and Citarum. During the twentieth century, computed average discharge in the downstream area (near Jakarta) increased between 2.5 and 35 m³/s/month, and sediment yield increased between 1 × 10³ and 42 × 10³ tons/year. These changes were caused by changes in both land cover and climate, with the former playing a stronger role. Based on a computation under a theoretical full implementation of the spatial plan proposed by Perpres 54/2008, river discharge would decrease by up to 5 % in the Ciliwung watershed and 26 % in the Cisadane watershed. The implementation of Perpres 54/2008 could also decrease the sediment yield, by up to 61 and 22 % in the Ciliwung and Cisadane watersheds, respectively. These findings show that the implementation of the spatial plan of Perpres 54/2008 could significantly improve watershed response to runoff and erosion. This study may serve as a tool for assessing the reduction in climate change impacts and evaluating the role of spatial planning for adaptation strategies.     

IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability

A prototype multi-purpose index is proposed for use in the evaluation of practices for adaptation to climate variability and change. The Index of Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA) allows the user to assign weights and scores to a set of user-defined evaluation criteria. Individual criterion scores are aggregated into a final index value. Both the final value and the individual parameter scores provide useful information for improved decision making in the context of climate change. An innovative aspect of IUPA is that guidance is given to the user through the inclusion of recommendations on evaluation criteria and criterion-specific weight factors. These have been defined by a panel of experts from the Latin-American and Caribbean Region (LAC). Application of the index is demonstrated for an existing adaptation practice from the Coquimbo Region, Chile. The IUPA tool is recommended for use in the evaluation of adaptation practices in their design, implementation and post-implementation phase. It is practical for a quick first assessment or when limited financial resources are available, making the tool especially useful for practitioners in the developing world. The index is flexible both from the perspective of its construction and use. Additional expert opinions can easily be included in the future versions of the tool.     

Multi-level governance of climate change adaptation through regional partnerships in Canada and England

Adaptation to climate change is widely recognized as a multi-level governance challenge because expected impacts and respective measures cut across governmental levels, sectors and societal domains. The present paper analyses the role of regional adaptation partnerships in Canada and England in the multi-level governance of climate change adaptation. We describe and compare three partnerships per country with regard to their evolution, membership and governing structures, coordination across levels and societal domains, and their adaptation activities and outputs. Although both partnership schemes represent new collaborative approaches, their genesis and governance differ. While the Canadian collaboratives are a government-centred approach that originated and partly operated top-down through a national programme for the period 2009–2012, the English partnerships follow a more pluralistic stakeholder-centred approach that evolved bottom-up already in the early 2000s. Both schemes have in common that they mediate between governmental levels, foster networking between public and private actors, and eventually build adaptive capacities and inform adaptation policies. We conclude that regional adaptation partnerships represent a new governance approach that facilitates climate change adaptation, albeit with limits. Since state actors play(ed) key roles in both partnership schemes, they do not represent a new sphere of authority outside the state. Instead of blurring or destabilizing governmental levels they complement (and perhaps even stabilise) them with multi-level interactions.     

Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO₂ concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.     

Exploring the health context: A qualitative study of local heat and climate change adaptation in Japan

Extreme temperature events and global climatic changes may put human health at risk. Urban centers are particularly vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change. Japan is a densely populated and highly urbanized island frequently exposed to natural hazards and heat episodes. Japanese governments and practitioners design heat adaptation strategies to protect health and reduce risks. Are these strategies implemented at the local level? How do policymakers and researchers perceive heat and climate change adaptation measures? How are these strategies evaluated? In short: what is happening in Japan “on the ground”? This critical review briefly outlines heat adaptation solutions and challenges from three Japanese prefectures. It draws attention to implementation and evaluation barriers, and highlights creative approaches to adaptation, such as involving civil society volunteers.     

First- and second-order adaptation to natural hazards and extreme events in the context of climate change

This paper deals with coping and adaptation processes to natural hazards and (potential) climate change impacts. Selected response measures to natural hazards are critically reviewed with respect to the actual and potential consequences that these measures might imply for additional adaptation needs and changes within social-ecological systems. In this context, the author introduces the concept of first- and second-order adaptation processes in order to underline the cascade process that adaptation implies, the potentials for failure, and the limits of adaptation. Important aspects of first- and second-order adaptation processes as well as the issue of the limits of adaptation are illustrated based on observations and empirical work conducted in Vietnam. In its final part, the paper discusses the findings in light of selected theoretical approaches that might help to understand how stabilization and destabilization processes are influenced or even triggered by adaptation measures.     

Visualizing flood risk,enabling participation and supporting climate change adaptation using the Geoweb: the case of coastal communities in Nova Scotia,Canada

Impacts of climate change have been observed in natural systems and are expected to intensify in future decades (IPCC in Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPC, Geneva, 2014). Governments are seeking to establish adaptive measures for minimizing the effects of climate change on vulnerable citizen groups, economic sectors and critical infrastructure (Adger et al. in Global Environ Change 15(2):77–86, 2005. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005; Smit and Wandel in Global Environ Change 16(3):282–292, 2006. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008). Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to changing conditions due to rising sea levels and storm event intensification that produce new flood exposures (Richards and Daigle in Government of Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 2011 http://www.gov.pe.ca/photos/original/ccscenarios.pdf). However, communities oftentimes lack access to locally-relevant climate change information that can support adaptation planning. This research introduces the use of a Geoweb tool for supporting local climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Canadian communities. The Geoweb tool (called “AdaptNS”) is a web-based visualization tool that displays interactive flood exposure maps generated using local climate change projections of sea level rise and storm surge impacts between the years 2000 and 2100. AdaptNS includes participatory features that allow users to identify and share specific locations to protect against present and future coastal flood events. By soliciting feedback from community members, AdaptNS is shown to support local adaptation through the provision of flood exposure visuals, as a platform for identifying adaptation priorities, and as an avenue to communicate local risks to external entities that could facilitate local adaptation initiatives (e.g. upper levels of government). Future Geoweb research directions include improving the visualization of climate change projection uncertainties, the expansion of informational and participation capabilities, and understanding the potential for long-term adoption of Geoweb tools in adaptation decision-making.