海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对厦门海域极值水位的影响及危险性预估

气候变化背景下海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对我国东南沿海地区的洪涝灾害影响日益严重,为应对气候变化的影响,本文以位于我国东南沿海的厦门地区为例,应用多种海洋大气观测资料和数理统计及模拟方法,分析了历史上9914号和1614号两次台风对厦门海域极端海面高度(极值水位)的影响,预估了未来海平面上升情景下厦门海域极值水位的变化及其危险性。结果表明:(1) 9914号台风期间,天文大潮、风暴增水和强降水的同时出现造成了厦门沿海地区超警戒极值水位(732 cm)的出现;(2) 风(向岸强风)、雨(强降水)、浪(巨浪)、潮(高潮位)、流(急流)等多致灾因子的共同作用是厦门沿海地区发生严重灾情的重要原因;(3) 在温室气体中等和高排放(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)情景下,到2050年(2100年),当前百年一遇的极值水位将分别变为30年(2年)一遇(RCP4.5)和25年(低于1年)一遇(RCP8.5)的频繁极端事件。这表明未来厦门沿海极值水位的危险性将显著上升,应采取充分的适应措施降低洪涝灾害风险。     

Wave climate variability of Taiwan waters

Global sea surface wind field data derived from NCEP reanalysis were used in driving a SWAN wave model to reconstruct historical wave records from 1948 to 2008. The reconstructed wave data were compared and verified by the observation of the data buoys of the Central Weather Bureau and the Water Resources Agency, Taiwan, and the National Data Buoy Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States. Over the past six decades, the wave climate in Taiwan waters has undergone considerable changes. The annual mean significant wave heights have reduced an average of 0.31 cm/year. Winter wave heights have gradually dropped 0.86 cm/year, which are related to the weakening of winter monsoons. Regarding the inter-annual wave climate variation, the influence of El Niño/southern oscillation was substantial; the wave heights increased in La Niña years and decreased in El Niño years. In the past 60 years, extreme wave events have been concentrated in two periods: 1967–1974 and 2000–2008. More severe extreme wave events occurred in the latter compared with the former, and all were induced by typhoons. A clear trend, in which the summer (winter) extreme wave events have increased (decreased) gradually, has been identified. The 1980s was the transition period. After the transition period, the annual occurrence of extreme wave events caused by typhoons exceeded those caused by an intense outbreak of winter cold surges, although the total number of the annual extreme wave events has not changed substantially.     

海平面上升对中国沿海工程的潮位和波高设计值的影响

本文根据国内外专家对中国近海海平面上升幅度的估计，讨论了海平面上升对海洋工程和海岸工程所需的设计潮位、设计波高分析计算的影响。     

不同气候情景下中国滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期预估

气候变化背景下,海平面上升叠加台风—风暴潮、天文大潮等产生的海岸极值水位事件趋多增强,对我国滨海城市社会经济可持发展构成了严重威胁。为认识未来我国滨海城市海岸极值水位危害性（强度和频率）的变化,本文首先采用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）数据,分析了不同气候情景下（RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5,简称为RCPs）下,未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国滨海城市沿岸海平面变化幅度;其次,基于沿海验潮站的历史观测资料和文献数据,分析了未来热带气旋强度变化对海岸极值水位的影响;最后,利用皮尔逊Ⅲ型（P-Ⅲ）水文概率曲线方法,预估了不同气候（RCPs）情景下未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国9个滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期的变化。结果表明：（1）在不同气候情景下,我国滨海城市沿海平均海平面均呈现上升趋势,其中,到21世纪末,长三角地区沿海海平面上升幅度最大,上升速度比全国平均高出约30%;（2）热带气旋的强度与台风—风暴潮的增水幅度存在正相关关系。预计到21世纪末,热带气旋的整体强度很可能将增强,热带气旋引发的台风—风暴潮的增水幅度较当前很可能有明显提高。（3）未来我国滨海城市沿海极值水位将有显著增高的趋势,当前极值水位的重现期将明显缩短。到21世纪末,我国滨海城市当前百年一遇的极值水位,重现期几乎都将缩短至20年一遇以下,其中,大连、青岛、上海和厦门等城市海岸极值水位重现期很可能缩短为（或低于）1年一遇。本文虽在一定程度上反映了不同气候情景下海岸洪水危害性的变化,但对于未来热带气旋的变化及其影响的研究尚有待进一步深入。     

Statistical modelling of the barrier height fronting a coastal lagoon and the impact of sea-level rise

A temporal stochastic modelling method for predicting exceedance probabilities of the beach barrier elevations fronting intermittently closed and open coastal lagoons is developed. The method incorporates synthetic tides generated from measured tidal harmonics, and randomly sampled values relating to rainfall, beach face slope, lake opening period, and wave height, direction and period. Samples are derived from distributions of each of these parameters formed from standard long term data records. The method is applied to Tabourie Lake, on the south coast of New South Wales. This entrance is sheltered from the dominant wave climate by an island close to shore, the impact of which is separately assessed by phase averaged wave modelling. The barrier elevation is determined from the 2% run-up level arising from constructive waves. The sensitivity of results to a variety of assumptions is tested. The methodology is applied to determine the probabilistic distribution of barrier heights for both stationary and non-stationary (i.e. sea level rise (SLR)) scenarios. Such probabilities can be adopted in a risk based assessment of catchment flooding behind an enclosing barrier for present conditions, or provide management guidelines for future climate scenario, i.e. changes in rainfall, wave climate, sea level. The model can also be used to investigate different management strategies and how these alter the barrier elevation for given probabilities of exceedance.     

Development and application of a methodology for vulnerability assessment of climate change in coastal cities

This research is based on the need to develop methodology for climate change vulnerability assessment in coastal cities. While there have been some studies on the development of methodologies for vulnerability assessment on a national scale, there have been few attempts to develop a method for local vulnerability assessment with application to coastal cities. The objective of this study was to develop a general methodology to assess vulnerability to climate change and to apply it to the metropolitan coastal city of Busan in South Korea. We followed the conceptual framework for assessing climate change vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is composed of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Sea level rises of 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m, and 3 m were considered as the climate exposure. Sensitivity to sea level rise was measured based on the percentage of flooded area calculated using flood simulation with a GIS tool. The population density and the population at age 65 years and over were also included in the calculation of sensitivity index. Sensitivities to heat wave and heavy rainstorm were quantified using the expert opinions from the Delphi survey and information on land use classification. Adaptive capacity was assessed in three sections: economic capability, infrastructure, and institutional capabilities. By combining the adaptive capacity and three different sensitivities, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR-V), vulnerability to heavy rainstorm (HR-V), and vulnerability to heat wave (HW-V) were separately evaluated in 16 counties of Busan. Using cluster analysis, we could classify four major groups of counties based on SLR-V, HR-V, HW-V, and reported damage cost. For clustered groups, different adaptation strategies were suggested based on the different vulnerability patterns. Application of our methodology to Busan indicated that our methodology is easy to use and provides concrete policy implications when setting up adaptation strategies. The methodology developed in this study could also be used in mainstreaming climate change into Integrated Coastal Management (ICM).     

A hybrid efficient method to downscale wave climate to coastal areas

Long-term time series of sea state parameters are required in different coastal engineering applications. In order to obtain wave data at shallow water and due to the scarcity of instrumental data, ocean wave reanalysis databases ought to be downscaled to increase the spatial resolution and simulate the wave transformation process. In this paper, a hybrid downscaling methodology to transfer wave climate to coastal areas has been developed combining a numerical wave model (dynamical downscaling) with mathematical tools (statistical downscaling). A maximum dissimilarity selection algorithm (MDA) is applied in order to obtain a representative subset of sea states in deep water areas. The reduced number of selected cases spans the marine climate variability, guaranteeing that all possible sea states are represented and capturing even the extreme events. These sea states are propagated using a state-of-the-art wave propagation model. The time series of the propagated sea state parameters at a particular location are reconstructed using a non-linear interpolation technique based on radial basis functions (RBFs), providing excellent results in a high dimensional space with scattered data as occurs in the cases selected with MDA. The numerical validation of the results confirms the ability of the developed methodology to reconstruct sea state time series in shallow water at a particular location and to estimate different spatial wave climate parameters with a considerable reduction in the computational effort.     

Numerical Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Irregular Wave Run-up Over Reef-Fringed Coasts

Wave hydrodynamics over fringing reefs is largely controlled by the reef surface roughness and hydrodynamic forcing. It is believed that climate change will result in a net increase in the water depth over the reef flat, a degrading of the surface roughness of coral reefs and changes in extreme incident wave heights. For an accurate assessment of how climate change affects the safety of reef-fringed coasts, a numerical study of the impact of climate change on irregular wave run-up over reef-fringed coasts was carried out based on a Boussinesq wave model,FUNWAVE-TVD. Validated with experimental data, the present model shows reasonable prediction of irregular wave evolution and run-up height over fringing reefs. Numerical experiments were then implemented based on the anticipated effects of climate change and carried out to investigate the effects of sea level rise, degrading of the reef surface roughness and increase of extreme incident wave height on the irregular wave run-up height over the backreef beach respectively. Variations of run-up components(i.e., spectral characteristics of run-up and mean water level) were examined specifically and discussed to better understand the influencing mechanism of each climate change-related effect on the run-up.     

The Mediterranean: vulnerability to coastal implications of climate change

The Mediterranean is experiencing a number of immediate coastal problems which are triggering efforts to improve short-term coastal management. This paper shows that coastal management also needs to address long-term problems and, in particular, the likelihood of climate change. Regional scale studies suggest that the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to increased flooding by storm surges as sea levels rise—a 1-m rise in sea level would cause at least a six-fold increase in the number of people experiencing such flooding in a typical year, without considering population growth. Protection is quite feasible, however, this would place a greater burden on those Mediterranean countries in the south than those in the north. All coastal wetlands appear threatened. Case studies of coastal cities (Venice and Alexandria), deltas (Nile, Po, Rhone and Ebro), and islands (Cyprus) support the need to consider climate change in coastal planning. However, the critical issues vary from site to site and from setting to setting. In deltaic areas and low-lying coastal plains climate change, particularly sea-level rise, is already considered as an important issue, but elsewhere this is not the case. Therefore, there is a need for coastal management plans to explicitly address long-term issues, including climate change, and integrate this planning with short-term issues. This is entirely consistent with existing guidelines.¹ Given the large uncertainty concerning the future, planning for climate change will involve identifying and implementing low-cost proactive measures, such as appropriate land use planning or improved design standards incorporated within renewal cycles, as well as identifying sectors or activities which may be compromised by likely climate change. In the latter case, any necessary investment can be seen as a prudent ‘insurance policy’.     

Increasing wave heights and extreme value projections: The wave climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Deep-water wave buoy data offshore from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) document that the annual averages of deep-water significant wave heights (SWHs) have increased at a rate of approximately 0.015 m/yr since the mid-1970s, while averages of the five highest SWHs per year have increased at the appreciably greater rate of 0.071 m/yr. Histograms of the hourly-measured SWHs more fully document this shift toward higher values over the decades, demonstrating that both the relatively low waves of the summer and the highest SWHs generated by winter storms have increased. Wave heights associated with higher percentiles in the SWH cumulative distribution function are shown to be increasing at progressively faster rates than those associated with lower percentiles. This property is demonstrated to be a direct result of the probability distributions for annual wave climates having lognormal- or Weibull-like forms in that a moderate increase in the mean SWH produces significantly greater increases in the tail of the distribution. Both the linear regressions of increasing annual averages and the evolving probability distribution of the SWH climate, demonstrating the non-stationarity of the Pacific Northwest wave climate, translate into substantial increases in extreme value projections, important in coastal engineering design and in quantifying coastal hazards. Buoy data have been analyzed to assess this response in the wave climate by employing various time-dependent extreme value models that directly compute the progressive increases in the 25- to 100-year projections. The results depend somewhat on the assumptions made in the statistical procedures, on the numbers of storm-generated SWHs included, and on the threshold value for inclusion in the analyses, but the results are consistent with the linear regressions of annual averages and the observed shifts in the histograms.     

气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的变化、影响及风险

本文系统梳理了IPCC 《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)的主要结论,并对主要观点进行了解读。报告主要关注全球变暖背景下高山、极地、海洋和沿海地区现在和未来的变化及其对人类和生态系统的影响,以及实现气候适应发展路径的方案。在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈大面积萎缩,冰川冰盖质量损失,积雪减少,北极海冰范围和厚度减小,多年冻土升温,全球海洋持续增温,1993年以来,海洋变暖和吸热速度增加了一倍以上。同时,海洋表面酸化加剧,海洋含氧量减少。全球平均海平面呈加速上升趋势,2006—2015年全球海平面上升速率为3.6 mm/yr,是1901—1990年的2.5倍,但存在区域差异。高山、极地和海洋的生态系统的物种组成、分布和服务功能均发生变化,并对人类社会产生了显著负面影响。极端海洋气候事件发生频率增多,强度加大。1982年以来,全球范围内海洋热浪的发生频率增加了一倍,且范围更广,持续时间更长。海平面持续上升加剧了洪涝、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀等海岸带灾害,并影响沿海生态系统。海洋及冰冻圈的变化及其影响在未来一定时期仍将持续,应对这些影响而面临的挑战,应加强基于生态系统的适应和可再生能源管理,强化海岸带地区的海平面上升综合应对,打造积极有效、可持续和具有韧性的气候变化应对方案。     

Estimation of mean and extreme waves in the East China Seas

Accurately estimating the mean and extreme wave statistics and better understanding their directional and seasonal variations are of great importance in the planning and designing of ocean and coastal engineering works. Due to the lack of long-term wave measurement data, the analysis of extreme waves is often based on the numerical wave hind-casting results. In this study, the wave climate in the East China Seas (including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea) for the past 35 years (1979–2013) is hind-casted using a third generation wave model – WAMC4 (Cycle 4 version of WAM model). Two sets of reanalysis wind data from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) are used to drive the wave model to generate the long-term wave climate. The hind-casted waves are then analysed to study the mean and extreme wave statistics in the study area. The results show that the mean wave heights decrease from south to north and from sea to land in general. The extreme wave heights with return periods of 50 and 100 years in the summer and autumn seasons are significantly higher than those in the other two seasons, mainly due to the effect of typhoon events. The mean wave heights in the winter season have the highest values, mainly due to the effect of winter monsoon winds. The comparison of extreme wave statistics from both wind fields with the field measurements at several nearshore wave observation stations shows that the extreme waves generated by the ECMWF winds are better than those generated by the NCEP winds. The comparison also shows the extreme waves in deep waters are better reproduced than those in shallow waters, which is partly attributed to the limitations of the wave model used. The results presented in this paper provide useful insight into the wave climate in the area of the East China Seas, as well as the effect of wind data resolution on the simulation of long-term waves.     

1993—2016年中国近海海平面时空变化趋势

区域海平面变化是目前气候变化研究的热点问题。海平面变化具有时间和空间的异质性,分析海平面变化,应充分考虑时间和空间的差异。基于集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)、最小二乘法,利用卫星高度计、验潮站数据,分析了1993—2016年间中国近海及周边海域海平面的时空变化规律。利用EEMD,计算了1993—2016年中国近海海平面变化空间结构的时间变化规律。结果表明中国近海海平面持续升高,但海平面变化在空间分布和时间上的变化并不均匀。空间结构大致分三个部分:大陆沿岸海平面持续上升且上升速率逐年增加,近海海区升高速率逐年降低,而研究区域内的西太平洋西部海区先减速升高又加速降低。分别利用EEMD分解和线性最小二乘拟合算法计算了1993—2016年中国近海海平面平均上升速率的空间分布,结果表明两种方法得到的海平面升高速率的空间分布大致吻合。两种方法均显示沿海地区的上升速率远大于近海海区,沿海地区上升速率大约为6 mm/a,近海海区上升速率大约为2 mm/a。但EEMD方法显示在广东沿岸和靠近赤道部分区域的上升速率更大。分别计算了大陆沿岸、近海及西太平洋西部海区三个海区内空间平均的海平面时间变化的线性及非线性趋势。非线性趋势显示大陆沿岸海区海平面加速上升,上升速率由1993年的3.65 mm/a,增加到2016年的5.03 mm/a;近海地区海平面上升速率逐年变小,由1993年的4.51 mm/a,减缓至2016年的3.8 mm/a;西太平洋西部海区海平面先减速上升,后加速下降,从1993年的上升率为9.5 mm/a,逐渐变化到2016年的下降率为2.27 mm/a。利用验潮站数据分析了大连、坎门、香港的水位变化,除大连海平面上升速率降低外,其余均显示海平面上升速度逐年升高,和卫星高度计的结果吻合。     

大鹏湾岬湾型海滩季节性变化特征及原因分析——以官湖海滩为例

随着全球海平面的上升及极端气象的频发,全球海滩总体呈现出一定的退化现象,海滩保护成为海岸带生态修复的焦点问题之一。我国华南地区岬湾型海滩分布广泛,以深圳市大鹏湾官湖海滩为代表,基于2020—2021年实测海滩剖面高程数据,分析岬湾型海滩季节性变化特征。研究表明,官湖海滩剖面坡度夏秋缓冬春陡,夏秋侵蚀冬春淤积;海滩沉积物粒径季节性变化不明显。海滩剖面形态受风浪、平均潮位的季节性变化控制,以夏秋季为例,平均潮位逐渐升高,南向波浪强度较大,在二者的共同作用下,海滩后滨侵蚀明显,泥沙离岸输运,并在前滨淤积。补沙方案宜在夏秋季进行,且重点区域为官湖海滩东侧与观海湾海滩,防御方案应主要削弱南向波浪。     

Experimental Study of Overtopping on Sea Dikes and Coastal Flooding Under the Coupled Processes of Tides and Waves

Storm surges are cataclysmic natural disasters that occur along the coasts and are usually accompanied by large waves. The effects of coupled storm surges and waves can pose a significant threat to coastal security. Previous laboratory studies on the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal structures have typically utilized steady water levels and constant wave elements. An indoor simulation of the coupled processes of tides and waves is developed by adding a tide generation system to an existing laboratory wave basin to model continuous dynamic tide levels so that tide generation and wave-making occur synchronously in the pool. Specific experimental methods are given, which are applied to further study waves overtopping on artificial sea dikes and coastal flooding evolution under the coupled actions of tides and waves. The results of the overtopping discharge obtained by the test with a dynamic water level are compared with those obtained from steady water level tests and the existing empirical formula. In addition, the impacts of ecological coastal shelterbelts and structures on coastal flood processes and distributions are also investigated. The proposed simulation methods provide a new approach for studying the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal areas. The study also aims to provide a reference for coastal protective engineering.

     

中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性及其气候特征研究

本文基于1982–2017年日再分析数据，分析了中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性、历史演变、空间格局及可能影响，并探讨了与全球变化和区域气候变率的关联性。近30多年来，中国近海海表总体升温明显，尤以春季长江口附近及以南的外部近岸海域升温最为显著，线性升温速率高达0.2°C/(10 a)。相比而言，沿岸海域对气候变暖暂缓的响应可能更为明显；极端高(低)温强度以显著增强(减弱)为主，尤以春(夏)季幅度最大。沿岸海域春季极值温差增强显著，易通过物候变化引起生物迁移和赤潮等生态灾害突发、频发；北部海域极端事件持续天数大于南部，其中，黄海、东海极端高温持续天数增加显著，可能对渔业资源产生较大影响。受气候变暖暂缓影响，极端低温持续天数亦显著增加；极端高温在长江口附近，台湾海峡和南海北部等海域累积频次上升显著，未来极端海洋热浪事件可能持续增加，将对南海珊瑚礁等产生较大影响。极端低温累积频次以显著降低为主。然而长江口及以南沿岸极端低温在冬春季增强明显，可能对红树林等产生一定影响；太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)暖位相期间，ENSO暖事件得到增强，易引起中国近海海表极端低温的频发。北极涛动(AO)正位相时，限制了极区冷空气向南扩展，中国近海海表极端高温频次趋于增加，其危险性增强。     

Adapting towards climate change impacts: Strategies for small-scale fishermen in Malaysia

As with the global scenario, a number of climate change ‘symptoms’ are being detected in Malaysia. Local scholars have looked into the problems of rising temperature, rising sea level, extreme rainfall and extreme winds, which are causing coastal and mangrove erosion and degradation of marine resources. In turn, these issues are affecting the small-scale fishermen who rely heavily on weather stability to conduct their social and economic routines. This paper analyses six adaptation strategies, namely, reducing the risks associated with fishing routines, strengthening social relationships, managing fishermen's climate change knowledge, facilitating the community's learning of alternative skills, involving fishermen in climate change adaptation planning, and enhancing fishermen's access to credit. These suggestions are hoped to provide basis for concerned parties to develop adaptation strategies that are in line with small-scale fishermen's needs, abilities and interests.     

Climate-based Monte Carlo simulation of trivariate sea states

Accurate wave climate characterization, which is vital to understand wave-driven coastal processes and to design coastal and offshore structures, requires the availability of long term data series. Where existing data are sparse, synthetically generated time series offer a practical alternative. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to simulate multivariate hourly sea state time series that preserve the statistical characteristics of the existing empirical data. This methodology combines different techniques such as univariate ARMAs, autoregressive logistic regression and K-means clusterization algorithms, and is able to take into account different time and space scales. The proposed methodology can be broken down into three interrelated steps: i) simulation of sea level pressure fields, ii) simulation of daily mean sea conditions time series and iii) simulation of hourly sea state time series. Its effectiveness is demonstrated by synthetically generating multivariate hourly sea states from a specific location near the Spanish Coast. The direct comparison between simulated and empirical time series confirms the ability of the developed methodology to generate multivariate hourly time series of sea states. Finally, the potential of the proposed methodology to simulate multivariate time series at multiple locations and incorporate climate change issues is discussed.     

The impact of climate change on prawn postlarvae fishing in coastal Bangladesh: Socioeconomic and ecological perspectives

In Bangladesh, prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) farming remains dependent on the capture of wild postlarvae as hatchery production is still inadequate. However, prawn postlarvae fishing has been accompanied by concerns over recent climate change. Different climatic variables including cyclone, salinity, sea level rise, water temperature, flood, rainfall, and drought have had adverse effects on coastal ecosystem, thus determining a decline in the availability of prawn postlarvae and thereby catch. The households of postlarvae fishers also face a variety of socioeconomic constraints due to climate change. Considering extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change, an integrated approach needs to be introduced to cope with the challenges.     

全球气候变化对我国海岸和近海工程的影响

全球气候变暖导致北半球中高纬度海冰冰情变化、海平面上升以及台风和风暴潮等自然灾害强度和频率加大等事件的发生。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，我国渤海和北黄海的冰情持续偏轻，2006年中国海域平均海平面上升速度高于全球水平。从我国海岸和近海工程安全与未来规划和建设的角度论述了全球气候变化及其伴生事件可能带来的各种影响，并提出了相应的应对措施。