不同气候情景下中国滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期预估

气候变化背景下，海平面上升叠加台风—风暴潮、天文大潮等产生的海岸极值水位事件趋多增强，对我国滨海城市社会经济可持发展构成了严重威胁。为认识未来我国滨海城市海岸极值水位危害性（强度和频率）的变化，本文首先采用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）数据，分析了不同气候情景下（RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5，简称为RCPs）下，未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国滨海城市沿岸海平面变化幅度；其次，基于沿海验潮站的历史观测资料和文献数据，分析了未来热带气旋强度变化对海岸极值水位的影响；最后，利用皮尔逊Ⅲ型（P-Ⅲ）水文概率曲线方法，预估了不同气候（RCPs）情景下未来不同年代（2030年、2050年和2100年）我国9个滨海城市海岸极值水位重现期的变化。结果表明：（1）在不同气候情景下，我国滨海城市沿海平均海平面均呈现上升趋势，其中，到21世纪末，长三角地区沿海海平面上升幅度最大，上升速度比全国平均高出约30%；（2）热带气旋的强度与台风—风暴潮的增水幅度存在正相关关系。预计到21世纪末，热带气旋的整体强度很可能将增强，热带气旋引发的台风—风暴潮的增水幅度较当前很可能有明显提高。（3）未来我国滨海城市沿海极值水位将有显著增高的趋势，当前极值水位的重现期将明显缩短。到21世纪末，我国滨海城市当前百年一遇的极值水位，重现期几乎都将缩短至20年一遇以下，其中，大连、青岛、上海和厦门等城市海岸极值水位重现期很可能缩短为（或低于）1年一遇。本文虽在一定程度上反映了不同气候情景下海岸洪水危害性的变化，但对于未来热带气旋的变化及其影响的研究尚有待进一步深入。

Estimating the return period of extreme water level in coastal cities of China under different climate scenarios

In the context of climate change, coastal extreme water level events caused by sea level rise and typhoon-storm surge, astronomical tide, have become more and more intense, posing a serious threat to coastal cities in China. To understand the hazards(intensity and frequency) changes of the extreme water level of Chinese coastal cities in the future. This paper uses the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP5) to analyze the sea level change of Chinese coastal cities under different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5, referred to as RCPs) in different period (2030, 2050, and 2100);secondly, analyzes the impact of future changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones on coastal extreme water levels, based on historical observation data and literature data from coastal tide gauge stations; finally, estimates the change in the return period of the extreme water level on the coast of 9 Chinese coastal cities under different climate (RCPs) scenarios in different period (2030, 2050 and 2100),based on Pearson-III(P- III) hydrological probability curve. The results show that: firstly, under different climate scenarios, the mean sea level of Chinese coastal cities has shown a growing trend. By the end of this century, the Yangtze River Delta, where the coastal sea level will increase the most, has risen about 30% higher than the average. Secondly, there is a positive correlation between the intensity of tropical cyclones and the typhoon-storm residual. By the end of this century, the overall intensity of tropical cyclones will be likely to increase, and the typhoon-storm surge caused by tropical cyclones will be likely to increase significantly. Thirdly, the coastal extreme water level of coastal cities will have a significant increase trend, and the return period of the extreme water level will be shortened. By the end of this century, the recent 1-in-100-year extreme water level event will become less than 1-in- 20-year,such as the return peirod will be likely to be shortened to 1-in-1-year in Shanghai City, Qingdao City, Xiamen City and Dalian City. This article reflects the changes in the hazard of coastal floods under different climate scenarios to a certain extent, but it is necessary to study on the changes and impacts of future tropical cyclones deeply.