滑坡堵江坝溃决洪水及其演进的理论分析

崩滑堵江事件在世界范围内，尤其在山区广泛存在。溃坝后形成的洪水异常凶猛，洪峰高达几米至几十米，演进过程中常造成下游严重灾害。因此，崩滑堵江事件及其灾害链已严重影响人类的工程经济活动。本文对溃决洪水流量，洪峰及其演进过程进行了理论分析，建立了一套预测溃坝洪水特征的计算公式，并用实例验证，取得了较好的效果。     

Automated numerical analysis tool for assessing potential bank failures during flooding

River embankments failure due to severe flooding is an extremely complex phenomena triggering permanent or temporary modification to the river morphology, river flow and sediment movement. Reliable and automatic prediction of these movements is crucial to properly identify the protective measures for residents living within the inundation flood zones. In this regard, BISHOP, a decision tool to automatically predict, at multiple river cross-sections, the slope failure circle with the minimum safety factor has been developed. In this paper, the computer tool BISHOP, named after the simplified Bishop method, is presented. Its applications have proven to be highly efficient in real case studies, where the stability of multiple slope profiles, at different river cross-sections, must be analyzed to establish spatial and temporal evolution of the river banks failures. The integration of the proposed methodology within a comprehensive flow hydrodynamic, sediment transport and landslide calculation has particularly enhanced the evaluation of the flood-risk zone during major flooding. Typical results demonstrating the effectiveness of the developed methodology are demonstrated during the analysis of the evolution of a river reach downstream of a dam a dam break scenario.     

土石坝漫顶溃决及洪水演进研究进展

土石坝漫顶溃决往往在其下游产生巨大的洪水灾难,研究坝体溃决及洪水演进是防灾减灾的需要。对土石坝漫顶溃决过程现象、机理及其模拟的研究进展进行了综述。讨论了物理模型试验的尺度设计,总结了不同尺度、不同类型、不同条件溃坝试验的研究成果;按照参数模型、简化物理模型、精细物理模型,分类总结了漫顶溃坝数学模型研究进展;阐述了溃坝洪水演进方面的试验与模拟研究。在此基础上,对该研究领域今后的研究工作提出了若干展望,包括河道边界对溃坝过程及溃坝洪水传播过程的影响、非均质土石坝溃决机理、溃坝过程中挟沙水流冲蚀规律、溃坝下游河床的冲淤调整及泥沙分选、溃坝对水生态环境的冲击影响等。     

土石坝漫顶溃决及洪水演进研究进展

土石坝漫顶溃决往往在其下游产生巨大的洪水灾难,研究坝体溃决及洪水演进是防灾减灾的需要。对土石坝漫顶溃决过程现象、机理及其模拟的研究进展进行了综述。讨论了物理模型试验的尺度设计,总结了不同尺度、不同类型、不同条件溃坝试验的研究成果;按照参数模型、简化物理模型、精细物理模型,分类总结了漫顶溃坝数学模型研究进展;阐述了溃坝洪水演进方面的试验与模拟研究。在此基础上,对该研究领域今后的研究工作提出了若干展望,包括河道边界对溃坝过程及溃坝洪水传播过程的影响、非均质土石坝溃决机理、溃坝过程中挟沙水流冲蚀规律、溃坝下游河床的冲淤调整及泥沙分选、溃坝对水生态环境的冲击影响等。     

钱塘江河口过江隧道河段极端洪水冲刷深度的预测

钱塘江河口为强冲积性河口,在洪潮水流共同作用下河床冲淤剧烈,极端洪水条件下河床的冲刷深度是过江隧道工程的关键问题之一。基于河床演变分析、动床数值模拟和动床物理模型等研究手段,建立了钱塘江河口过江隧道河段洪水冲刷深度的预测模型,分别经钱塘江河口的典型实测地形、水流泥沙及河床冲淤等实测资料进行验证。在此基础上预测了某过江隧道河段在极端洪水作用下河床最大冲刷深度,三种研究方法所得的结果定性定量基本合理,且与后来地质详勘的沉积分析成果基本一致,进一步表明了预测模型的可靠性,预测的最大冲刷深度可为过江隧道的合理埋设提供科学依据。     

Stability of landslide dams and development of knickpoints

The Wenchuan earthquake triggered many landslides and numerous avalanches and created 100 odd quake lakes. The quake lakes may be removed or preserved. The removal strategy was applied to several large landslide dams, which were dangerous because massive amounts of water pooled up in the quake lakes. The dams could eventually fail under the action of dam outburst flooding, potentially endangering the lives of people in the downstream reaches. This paper studied the stability of landslide dams and the development of knickpoints by field investigations and experiments, and analyzing satellite images. The study concluded that if landslide dams were preserved, they would develop into knickpoints and act as a primary control of riverbed incision and, thus, reduce the potential of new landslide. The stability of landslide dams depends mainly on the development of the step-pool system and stream power of the flood flow. If a landslide dam consists of many boulders, a step-pool system may develop on the spillway channel of the dam, which would maximize the resistance, consume most of the flow energy and consequently protect the dam from incision. The development degree of the step-pool system is represented by a parameter S _p, which was measured with a specially designed instrument. A preservation ratio of landslide dams is defined as the ratio of preserved height after flood scouring to the original height of the dam. For streams with peak flood discharge lower than 30 m³/s, the preservation ratio is linearly proportional to S _p. For rivers with a peak flood discharge higher than 30 m³/s (30–30,000 m³/s), the minimum S _p value for stable channel increases with log p, in which p is the unit stream power. For a landslide dam with a poorly developed step-pool system, S _p is smaller than the minimum value and the outburst flood incises the spillway channel and causes failure of the dam. For preserved landslide dams, sediment deposits in the quake lakes. A landslide dam may develop into a knickpoint if it is stabilized by long-term action of the flow. Large knickpoints can totally change the fluvial processes and river morphology. Uplift of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has caused extensive channel bed incision along almost all rivers. For many rivers, the incision has been partly controlled by knickpoints. Upstream reaches of a knickpoint have a new and unchanging base level. This brings about a transition from degradation to aggradation and from vertical bed evolution to horizontal fluvial process. Multiple and unstable channels are prominent in the reaches, upstream of the knickpoints. If hundreds of landslide dams occurred simultaneously on a reach of a mountain river, the potential energy of bank failure and the slope erosion would be greatly reduced and sediment yield from the watershed may be reduced to nearly zero. The quake lakes may be preserved long term and become beautiful landscapes. Streams with long-term unfilled quake lakes have good aquatic ecology.     

关于黄河流域环境地学与国土整治的思考

本文从黄河流域的地质与地理,气象与气候,水文与泥沙,植被与土壤,以及人文与人口等方面综述了下游地下悬河与断流的环境地学背景,并从洪水与堤防,决口与改道,分流与运河,以及悬河与充等方面分析了黄河下游河道变迁和现状问题。当前,为解决黄河缺水断流,洪水威胁和环境变化等问题,应及时调整黄河中,上游国土整治对策,其中包括遵从自然规律,调整水土保持思路,倡导就地储水,遏制地面蒸发,控制沟谷发育及全面推进小流域     

易贡滑坡堰塞湖溃坝洪水分析

滑坡堰塞坝体主要由块石、碎石土等松散材料组成,随着上游水位的不断上升,极易失稳,一旦决口将对给下游人民的生命财产安全造成极大的威胁。因此,研究堰塞坝溃坝问题具有重要的学术意义和应用价值。2000 年 4 月 9 日,西藏林芝地区波密县易贡藏布河扎木弄沟发生大规模山体滑坡堵塞易贡藏布江,形成坝高60m,长约2500m,库容可达288108m3,体积约28108～30108m3的滑坡堰塞湖, 2000年6月10日堰塞坝溃决。本文以易贡堰塞湖溃坝为例,从连续性方程及Navier Stokes方程出发,结合标准型湍流模型,并采用VOF方法进行自由面处理,基于流体计算软件Fluent模拟分析了溃坝洪水在下游弯曲河道的演进过程及不同位置的流速变化。数值模拟结果与实测资料记录基本一致,表明该模型能够模拟溃坝洪水在地形复杂弯曲河道中的演进过程。     

Inundation Potentials Analysis for Tsao-Ling Landslide Lake Formed by Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan

Without any omen, massive landslides induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake blocked up gorges of Ching-Shui creek, and produced a new landslide lake.Although emergency spillways have been constructed to prevent dam failures,overtopping and possible breaching may still occur due to excessive inflows in raining seasons. As a result, the downstream valleys will have serious inundation and the safety of people and properties will be in immediate danger. The purpose of this work is to simulate and to analyze the inundation potentials downstream of Tsao-Ling landslide lake using a hydrologic/hydraulic approach and GIS (Geographic Information System) technology. Hydrologic analysis is employed to describe regional rainfall-runoff characteristics andto design rainfall/runoff scenarios. One-dimensional dam break flood routings are performed with different return periods of rainfall events and dam failure durations for downstream creeks. The depletion hydrographs of dam break routings are applied into two-dimensional overland flow simulations for downstream lowlands. The results of hydraulic computations are evaluated with GIS maps for inundation potentials analysis, which can be usedto assist the planning of emergency response measures.     

Assessment of potential outburst floods from the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake in Nepal

Flood and sediment disasters caused by glacial lake outbursts have occurred frequently in recent years in the Himalayas of Nepal. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic flooding in downstream areas with serious damage to lives and property. It is thus important to investigate outburst floods from potentially dangerous glacial lakes. In this study, the characteristics of potential outburst floods from the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake due to two types of moraine dam failure caused by seepage flow or water overtopping were analyzed with various scenarios by using integrated modeling system of three numerical models: (1) the flow and bed-surface erosion model, (2) the seepage model and (3) the slope stability model. Flood inundation areas were also identified by using the numerical model of the flow and moraine dam failure and geographical information system tools. Possible threats and damages due to the potential GLOF events from the lake were also analyzed based on numerical results, flood inundation maps and field investigations.     

Coupling fluvial processes and landslide distribution toward geomorphological hazard assessment: a case study in a transient landscape in Japan

This study quantified the relationship among deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DGSDs), landslides, and river rejuvenation in the upper reaches of the Kumano River in the Kii Mountains of Japan, an area of frequent bedrock landslides. River profiles and hillslope landforms were examined, and high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to identify DGSDs and landslides. Many of the deep-seated landslides were associated with rainstorms in 1889 and 2011. Landslide volumes were related to landslide areas on the basis of 52 deep-seated landslides that failed during the 2011 rainfall, providing basic data for landscape denudation and sediment yield. River rejuvenation occurred stepwise, incising moderate relief paleosurfaces and forming two series of knickpoints and V-shaped inner gorges that are up to 400-m deep. More than 65% of DGSDs and 75% of the landslides were located in association with the incised inner gorges along the peripheries of the paleosurfaces or were entirely contained within the inner gorges. DGSDs and landslides associated with the incised inner valley slopes tended to be larger than those developed within the paleosurfaces and may be long-term transient hillslope responses to river incision. Hillslope undercutting caused by rejuvenated river incision may play an important role in long-term slope stability and distribution of mass movements, and could serve as an indicator of landslide hazard.     

长江中下游河道冲淤演变的防洪效应

近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少，河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整，河道蓄泄关系发生变化，对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上，对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下，遇1954年洪水，长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明，未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷，河道槽蓄容积增加，相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大，三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大，总拦蓄洪量减小，长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小，但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。     

精细地形下的尾矿坝稳定性及溃坝模拟分析

目前在尾矿坝稳定性和溃坝模拟分析方面,对溃口位置及水砂的流动状态难以做出准确判断。将尾矿坝稳定性和溃坝模拟有机结合,采用FLAC3D计算正常水位、洪水位、漫顶水位三种工况下尾矿坝稳定性,并利用Rhino与Fluent建立尾矿库及下游精细地形,开展尾矿库溃坝水砂在不同时刻及不同地形下的流动状态研究分析。结果表明:（1）浸润线的埋深随尾矿库水位的升高而变小,由正常水位升高至洪水位时浸润线埋深下降5～8 m,漫顶水位时坝顶浸润线沿坡面向下运移约8 m;（2）库水位对剪切带及尾矿坝稳定性有显著影响,从正常水位到洪水位时,剪切带纵向上不断向坝体内部延伸,横向上不断向坝脚延伸,剪切应变率增大为5.78×10?5,尾矿坝稳定系数由1.80下降至1.32;（3）达到坝顶时剪切带急剧缩短,而剪切应变率进一步增大为3.32×10?4,尾矿坝稳定系数由1.32下降到1.18。溃坝水砂的流动状态受地形影响明显,在山谷中表现为范围减小、流速增大的汇聚流动,在平坦农田处表现为范围增大、流速减小的发散流动特点。     

长江中下游河道冲淤演变的防洪效应

近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少,河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整,河道蓄泄关系发生变化,对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上,对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下,遇1954年洪水,长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明,未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷,河道槽蓄容积增加,相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大,三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大,总拦蓄洪量减小,长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小,但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。     

三峡水库建成后长江中下游防洪战略思考

三峡水库建成后,长江中下游防洪形势显著改善,但由于经济社会发展,防洪要求的提高和江湖关系的变化,长江防洪形势发生了一些新的变化。以1954年和1998年典型大洪水为例,分析了三峡水库建成后长江中下游防洪形势出现的新变化,讨论了长江中下游蓄滞洪空间格局调整及江湖关系变化对于防洪的影响。根据长江水沙变化、河道演变、水库群调控和分蓄洪区使用几率变化等出现的新问题,提出未来防洪战略及对策。结果表明:三峡建成后,百年一遇以下洪水防御形势明显好转,而百年一遇以上特大防洪的防洪形势仍然严峻,洪水风险主要转移到水库群上;今后需要在加强蓄滞洪区建设的基础上,重点推动防洪非工程措施建设,以减轻特大洪水带来的灾害损失。     

Quantitative dam break analysis on a reservoir earth dam

Mathematical simulations on dam break or failure using BOSS DAMBRK hydrodynamic flood routing dam break model were carried out to determine the extent of flooding downstream, flood travel times, flood water velocities and impacts on downstream affected residences, properties and environmental sensitive areas due to floodwaters released by failure of the dam structure. Computer simulations for one of the worse case scenarios on dam failure using BOSS DAMBRK software accounted for dam failure, storage effects, floodplains, over bank flow and flood wave attenuation. The simulated results reviewed a maximum flow velocity of 2.40 m/s with a discharge of approximately 242 mз /s occurred at 1.00 km downstream. The maximum discharge increased from 244 m³/s (flow velocity = 1.74 m/s occurred at 8^th. km) to 263 m³/s (flow velocity = 1.37 m/s occurred at 12^th. km); about a 39% drop in flow velocity over a distance of 4.00 km downstream. If the entire dam gives way instantly, some spots stretching from 0.00 km (at dam site) to approximately 3.40 km downstream of the dam may be categorized as “danger zone”, while downstream hazard and economic loss beyond 3.40 km downstream can be classified as “low” or “minimal” zones.     

Relationships between sand input from rivers and the composition of sands from the beaches of Southern California*

During the period from 1967 through 1972, a sampling programme was completed to determine the economic potential of heavy metals in the beach and river sands of the southern California coastal zone. These samples were employed to test the hypothesis that sand composition in a given beach cell is dominantly controlled by the provenance draining into that cell and is not strongly influenced by longshore leakage from upcurrent cells. Sample sets obtained before and after the exceptional flood of 1969 made it possible to compare the sediment supplied by normal river flow with that supplied by a major flood. Multivariate statistical analysis of the heavy mineral distribution of southern California beaches and rivers indicate that the sand composition of the two northern cells is controlled by the dominantly sedimentary Transverse Range provenance, whereas the composition of the three southern cells is controlled by the dioritic Peninsular Ranges. Some leakage occurs between the two northern cells around the Point Dume-Hueneme-Mugu Canyon Zone, whereas no important southward mixing occurs between cells around the Palos Verdes-Redondo Canyon Zone. Even though the Santa Clara River flows mostly through sedimentary terrains, samples from this river strongly reflect the granodioritic source present in its headlands. Although the basic sand composition within each cell persists during major flooding, leakage between cells may increase following flooding and the compositional packages present may show evidence of greater mixing.     

Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)

Landslides are natural hazards that represent a huge economic burden and cause the loss of human life around the world. In countries such as Colombia, the mass movement events that cause the highest number of deaths and economic losses are often related to river or stream flooding caused by landslides in basins. Therefore, it is necessary to develop tools that estimate and assess landslide risk in such areas. This study presents a methodology to assess the risk associated with landslides in streams or river basins. The hazard posed by landslides is evaluated considering probabilistic methods that include the effects of rainfall and earthquakes. In addition, this study assesses the probability of a sliding mass reaching riverbeds and the probability of riverbed obstruction. Vulnerability is then estimated using impact curves based on the obstruction height. Finally, risk is estimated as the probability that economic losses occur along the riverbed. This methodology is based on probability methods, such as the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method, and the punctual estimates method (PEM). The methodology was applied in the La Liboriana River basin, in the municipality of Salgar in the northwestern Colombian Andes. On May 18, 2015, this mountainous and tropical area suffered a flash flood caused by landslides in the basin, which killed more than 100 inhabitants and caused infrastructure damage and significant economic losses. The results suggest that the proposed method coherently assesses the hazard posed by landslides and that the expected losses are comparable with the records from previous events.

     

不同洪水重现期下橡胶坝调控对洪水风险的影响

现有针对河湖水系连通伴生风险分析的方法或不具备物理过程模拟,或缺乏对风险随机性的探讨。以沂沭河水系连通工程为例,在水力学模型的基础上,考虑连通河网不同河流洪峰相关性,创建随机水情条件下河湖水系连通伴生风险分析模型。通过1 200组水情条件,对沂沭河水系上游进行洪水过程模拟,针对橡胶坝可能造成的洪峰叠加问题,提出不同洪水重现期下橡胶坝运行调度风险管控建议。结果表明:① 50年一遇与100年一遇洪水重现期条件下,均呈现出橡胶坝坝址处水位风险极高（概率P>0.8）,流速风险较低（P < 0.3）的规律,且每当橡胶坝高度升高25%的设计坝高时,沂河与沭河坝前水位风险皆提高约70%,沭河坝址处流速风险降低约50%。②若在汛前塌坝下泄蓄水,人为洪峰的叠加会使沭河中下游河段产生极高风险。③通过划分水位、流速综合洪水风险安全域,洪水重现期50年一遇时,建议沂沭河橡胶坝在汛前调节至低于50%设计坝高,且控制沭河水深和流速分别在12 m和2.23 m/s以内,可以降低水位和流速风险至低风险（P < 0.4）;洪水重现期100年一遇时,需将橡胶坝调至25%设计坝高以下,或者汛前尽早缓慢塌坝下泄蓄水,才能有效降低沂沭河水系防洪压力。     

岷江上游河流阶地发育特征及与古滑坡关系初步分析

河流阶地形成演化及其对滑坡的控制是近年来古滑坡研究的热点问题。笔者在对岷江上游河流阶地和古滑坡实地调查测试的基础上,对岷江上游河流阶地的级序、拔河高度、成因类型等进行了分析,绘制了阶地高程位相图和年龄位相图,并结合阶地和古滑坡年代,讨论了阶地与古滑坡的发育关系等。主要取得了以下认识:1)岷江上游的河流阶地具有分段性,成因主要为气候多期次波动与构造活动共同作用,古滑坡及堰塞湖是影响高山峡谷区河流阶地发育的重要因素;2)叠溪-茂县段在20~30 ka B.P.发生了多处大型古滑坡,其中20 ka B.P.的古滑坡可能主要是气候波动引发,30 ka B.P.发生的古滑坡可能主要受控于构造活动(地震);3)岷江上游大量分布的古滑坡堆积体与阶地发育的叠置关系有待进一步理清,开展该地区的河流阶地级序研究要充分考虑古滑坡和堰塞湖的影响.