2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震前LURR异常时空演化特征

基于加卸载响应比理论,对2017年8月9日新疆精河6.6级地震前加卸载响应比时空演化特征和异常区的孕震积分时程曲线进行分析。结果表明,在精河6.6级地震前,研究区出现了明显的加卸载响应比高值异常区域,异常区呈现环状特征;而且,异常区域随时间逐渐向震源附近迁移,异常演化过程中异常区域内部和周围发生了6次5级以上地震,其中,2次6级地震发生在异常高值减弱过程中,异常峰值到发震的时间分别为11、22个月,大于以往研究的理论发震时间,这可能是受构造应力区域性特征影响的缘故。     

阿克陶M_S6.7地震前LURR异常演化特征分析

加卸载响应比理论是描述震源区介质损伤程度的一种地震预测方法。基于加卸载响应比理论,对2016年11月25日阿克陶M_S6.7地震前加卸载响应比时空演化特征和异常区的孕震积分时程曲线进行分析。结果表明,本次地震前,研究区出现了多个加卸载响应比高值区域,异常区呈现为环状或片状,随着地震孕育过程,异常区往震源附近迁移,发震地点在异常区边缘和内部,地震发生在异常高值减弱过程中,异常峰值到发震时间为1个月,远小于理论发震时间,这表明了研究区构造活动剧烈,孕震周期短的特征。     

地磁加卸载响应比与地震对应关系研究

通过对浙、沪、苏邻近 4个地磁观测点的近十年的资料,及邻近区域10个地震进行了每日Z分量日变幅加卸载响应比随时间变化和响应比月均值的相关研究。结果表明:加卸载响应比阈值P₀(Z) 和响应比月均值P_M(Z)的大小与地震的震级、震中距及异常出现的早晚并非完全呈线性相关;当响应比值大于某一阈值时,有可能发生一定震级的地震 ;按该方法结果综合分析,截止1998年9月底,未来1年左右的时间内在该研究区域或更大范围(含台湾区域)有可能发生6级左右的地震。该方法可作为分析预报手段参与中短期和短临地震趋势判断的一种新方法。     

台湾地区强震前加卸载响应比特征

对台湾地区加卸载响应比沿时间进程的发展趋势进行分析,结果显示:台湾MS≥7.0级地震前加卸载响应比可能出现高值异常或小幅度的突升现象;超过50%的7级强震前,加卸载响应比出现趋势上升异常,未来地震震级与趋势异常上升幅度、异常持续时间之间呈线性正相关,即异常持续时间越长,其上升的异常幅度也越大,未来地震的震级也越大。出现趋势上升异常的地震震中均处在北纬24°以南的台湾东带区域。     

新疆中强地震前加卸载响应比时空演化特征分析与检验

加卸载响应比是一种刻画震源区介质损伤程度的物理学参数,它通过随时间的变化来反映地震孕育的过程来进行地震预测。通过对1990—1999年新疆地区部分中强地震前加卸载响应比时空演化特征进行分析,并基于该理论得到孕震积分的概念应用于震例中。结果表明:中强震震前在震中附近可能存在多个高加卸载响应比值区,它们大致围成椭圆状或环状,地震通常发生在异常高值波动或减弱的过程中;异常峰值至发震时间比理论时间要短,这可能表明新疆地区构造活动剧烈,孕震周期较短。     

加卸载响应比理论在包头西MS6.4地震预报中的应用

用加卸载响应比理论对包头西 MS6 .4 地震前加卸载响应比随时间的变化进行了较详细的研究.结果表明,震前加卸载响应比有较明显的上升异常.异常出现的时间和异常幅度大小不但与所选择的区域和震级下限有关,而且还与发震构造和控震构造有关.异常与地震的对应关系表现为:上升异常出现、转折并恢复到正常值附近时发震.异常持续时间,短的1 a 以上,最长4 a 左右.     

加卸载响应比与震前应力积累模式研究

加卸载响应比是一种中短期地震预测方法.按照该方法,通常在大地震发生之前加卸载响应比时间序列会出现明显的异常高值.早先的研究发现,震前临界区域的选择对加卸载响应比的计算有很大影响.我们发展了一种使用震前应力积累区域取代传统圆形区域计算加卸载响应比的算法,提高了加卸载响应比的地震预测能力,其震前库仑应力场分布采用地震断层位错模型将同震滑移量反向滑移的方法计算.美国南加州近20年来发生的4次M6.5地震以及2008年中国汶川MS8.0地震的研究事实表明,使用库仑应力算法得到的加卸载响应比时间序列,前兆变化相对于圆形区域算法更为明显,且对目标地震的位置、震级预测更为明确.库仑应力算法的这一独特性质,使我们可以针对不同地区的活动构造特征对未来地震发生的地点和大小提供信息和约束.     

新疆地区2000 ～ 2012 年加卸载响应比时空演化特征分析

对新疆地区进行了加卸载响应比的时空扫描计算,考察了研究区2000 ～ 2012年期间加卸载响应比异常区域的时空演化特征,利用孕震积分定量统计了新疆地区5级以上地震与LURR的时空关系;并用2011 ～2012年的扫描结果与次年实际发生的5级以上地震进行对比,发现绝大部分的中强地震都发生在前1年的预测区域内.基于加卸载响应比的时空扫描结果,分别对2011 ～2012年发生的4个6级地震进行了孕震积分时程曲线分析,结果显示,实际地震发生之前几个月孕震积分均会达到峰值,并在高值波动过程中或高值回落后发震.     

加卸载响应比理论在张北——尚义Ms6.2级地震预测中的应用

用加卸载响应比理论对张北－尚义Ｍｓ６．２地震国卸载响应比随时间的变化进行了较详细的研究。结果表明,震前加卸载响应比有较明显的上升异常。异常出现的时间、异常幅度大小与所选择的区域有关,与所选取的震级下限有关,而且,还与发震构造和控震构造有关。异常与地震的对应关系表现为：上升异常出现,转折并恢复到正常值附近时发震。异常持续时间,短的半年以上,最长约６年左右。     

云南普洱地区6级以上地震前的Y值异常特征

本利用加卸载响应比方法研究了云南省普洱地区ＭＬ６．０级以上地震前的加卸载响应比随时间的变化，计算了这个地区近期的加卸载响应比，结果显示，普洱地区６级以上地震前Ｙ值出现明显异常，近期的Ｙ值显异常，表明该地区或在以其为中心方圆１００－２００公里的区域内在１９９５年或稍长时间内发生６．０级以上的地震的可能性很大。     

九寨沟MS 7.0地震前单台波速比变化特征

收集、整理四川省地震台网2013年5月至2017年9月产出的震相观测报告数据,采用单台多震和达法,重点分析2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S 7.0强震前龙门山断裂带中北段地区波速比变化特征。结果表明：龙门山断裂带中段西侧的茂县地震台,在发震前2年左右,波速比出现一次持续时间约一年半的下降异常;发震前半年左右,波速比出现明显回返特征,波速比回返至均值上下时即发生九寨沟M_S 7.0地震;震源区周边其他6个地震台波速比在发震前变化较平稳。茂县地震台波速比低值异常对判定九寨沟M_S 7.0强震前龙门山断裂带中北段可能存在孕震体具有重要参考价值。     

Low CodaQcin the Epicentral Region of the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake ofMw7.7

On 26 January, 2001 (03:46:55,UT) a devastating intraplate earthquake of M_w 7.7 occurred in a region about 5 km NW of Bhachau, Gujarat (23.42°N, 70.23°E). The epicentral distribution of aftershocks defines a marked concentration along an E-W trending and southerly dipping (45°) zone covering an area of (60 × 40) km². The presence of high seismicity including two earthquakes of magnitudes exceeding 7.7 in the 200 years is presumed to have caused a higher level of shallow crustal heterogeneity in the Kutch area; a site lying in the seismic zone V (zone of the highest seismicity for potentially M8 earthquakes) on the seismic zoning map of India. Attenuation property of the medium around the epicentral area of the Bhuj earthquake covering a circular area of 61,500 km² with a radius of 140 km is studied by estimating the coda-Q_c from 200 local earthquakes of magnitudes varying from 3.0–4.6. The estimated Q₀ values at locations in the aftershock zone (high seismicity) are found to be low in comparison to areas at a distance from it. This can be attributed to the fact that seismic waves are highly scattered for paths through the seismically active and fractured zone but they are well behaved outside the aftershock zone. Distribution of Q₀ values suggests that the local variation in Q₀ values is probably controlled by local geology. The estimated Q₀ values at different stations suggest a low value of Q=(102 ± 0.80)^*f^{(0.98 ± 0.02)} indicating an attenuative crust beneath the entire region. The frequency-dependent relation indicates a relatively low Q_c at lower frequencies (1–3 Hz) that can be attributed to the loss of energy due to scattering attenuation associated with heterogeneities and/or intrinsic attenuation due to fluid movement in the fault zone and fluid-filled cracks. The large Q_c at higher frequencies may be related to the propagation of backscattered body waves through deeper parts of the lithosphere where less heterogeneity is expected. Based on the attenuation curve estimated for Q₀=102, the ground acceleration at 240 km distance is 13% of 1 g i.e., 0.13 g agreeing well with the ground acceleration recorded by an accelerograph at Ahmedabad (0.11 g). Hence, it is inferred that the Q₀ value obtained from this study seems to be apt for prediction of ground motion for the region.     

Crustal thickness and vP/vS ratio in Shanxi Graben,China

Shanxi Graben is in the middle part of the North China Craton, from south to north. With the teleseismic data recorded by Regional Seismograph Networks and the temporary ZBnet-W Seismic Array around east part of Shanxi Graben, we measured the crustal thickness and v_P/v_S ratio beneath each station using the H-κ stack of receiver functions. The observed crustal thickness shows obvious lateral variation, increasing gradually from east to west in the Shanxi Graben. Beneath the Shanxi Graben the crust is relatively thicker than both sides of the south and the north. In addition, the v_P/v_S ratio in the north of study zone is higher than that in the south. The highest v_P/v_S ratio exists in the crust of the Xinding basin and the Datong basin. Our study also suggests that high velocity ratio might result from the strong activities of the magmation and volcanism.     

Vp/Vs ratios in the Yellowstone National Park region, Wyoming

In this paper we study the variation of V_p/V_s and Poisson's ratio (δ) in the Yellowstone National Park region, using earthquakes which were well recorded by a local seismic network. We find that the average V_p/V_s value within the geothermally active Yellowstone caldera is about 7% lower than in the area outside the caldera. Within the caldera itself there may be a further 2–7% reduction of V_p/V_s in the hydrothermally active Norris Geyser Basin, the Upper and Lower Geyser Basins, and the Yellowstone Lake and Mud Volcano regions. After considering various possible causes for V_p/V_s changes, such as geologic and structural differences, thermal effects, partial melting, and hydrothermal activity, we conclude that the most plausible explanation for the observed V_p/V_s reduction is the presence of hot-water at temperatures and pore-pressures near the water steam transition in the caldera geothermal reservoirs.     

Vp and Vp/Vs structures in the crust and upper mantle of the Taiwan region, China

A tomographic study of the V _p and V _p/V _s structures in the crust and upper mantle beneath the Taiwan region of China is conducted by simultaneous inversion of P and S arrival times. Compared with the previous tomographic results, the spherical finite difference technique is suitable for the strong heterogeneous velocity structure, and may improve the accuracy in the travel time and three-dimensional ray tracing calculations. The V _p and V _p/V _s structures derived from joint inversion and the relocated earthquakes can provide better constraints for analyzing the lateral heterogeneity and deep tectonic characters in the crust and upper mantle. Our tomographic results reveal significant relations between the seismic wavespeed structure and the tectonic characters. In the shallow depth, sedimentary basins and orogen show distinct wavespeed anomalies, with low V _p, high V _p/V _s in basins and high V _p, low V _p/V _s in orogen. As the suture zone of Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate, Longitudinal Valley is characterized by a significant high V _p/V _s anomaly extending to the middle-lower crust and upper mantle, which reflects the impact of rock cracking, partial melting, and the presence of fluids. In the northeast Taiwan, the V _p, V _p/V _s anomalies and relocated earthquakes depict the subducting Philippine Sea Plate under the Eurasian Plate. The high V _p of oceanic plate and the low V _p, high V _p/V _s atop the subducted oceanic plate extend to 80 km depth. Along the east-west profiles, the thickness of crust reaches 60 km at the east of Central Range with eastward dipping trend, which reveals the eastward subduction of the thickened and deformed crust of the Eurasian continental plate. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-234-2), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2007CB411701), National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006AA09A101-0201) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40804016, 40704013)     

Ultrasonic measurements of Vp and Qp: relaxation spectrum of complex modulus on basalt melts

Ultrasonic compressional wave velocity V_p and quality factor Q_p have been measured in alkali basalt, olivine basalt and basic andesite melts in the frequency range of 3.4–22 MHz and in the temperature range of 1100–1400°C. Velocity and attenuation of the melts depend on frequency and temperature, showing that there are relaxation mechanisms in the melts. Complex moduli are calculated from the ultrasonic data. The results fit well a complex modulus of Arrhenius temperature dependence with log-normal Gaussian distribution in relaxation times of attenuation. The analysis yields average relaxation time, its activation energy, relaxed modulus, unrelaxed modulus and width of Gaussian distribution in relaxation times. Relaxed modulus is smaller (17.5 GPa) for basic andesite melt of high silica and high alumina contents than for the other two basalt melts (18.1–18.4 GPa). The most probable relaxation times decrease from ～ 3 × 10^?10 s for basic andesite to ～ 10^?11 s for alkali basalt at 1400°C. Activation energies of attenuation, ranging from 270 to 340 kJ mol^?1 in the three melts, are highest in basic andesite. Longitudinal viscosity values and their temperature dependences are also calculated from V_p and Q_p data. The volume viscosity values are estimated from the data using the shear viscosity values. Longitudinal, volume and shear viscosities and their activation energies are highest in the basic andesite melt of the most polymerized structure.     

兴蒙造山带诺敏河火山群地壳厚度与波速比研究

利用布设于兴蒙造山带诺敏河火山群地区的宽频带流动地震台站资料,基于接收函数方法,获取了该地区的地壳厚度与波速比值.研究结果显示,该地区的地壳厚度介于32~38 km,莫霍面深度在空间上分布特征与五大连池为中心的火山带分布具有较好的一致性：沿着火山带延展方向地壳较薄.该地区的波速比介于1.74~1.84,波速比在空间上与地壳厚度变化具有一致性：高波速比主要集中于靠近五大连池火山带地区,向诺敏河火山和小古里河火山延展.研究认为：诺敏河火山与五大连池火山带可能具有相同的岩浆来源,可能与富钾岩石圈地幔拆沉作用造成的地幔热物质上涌有关.研究区地壳厚度与波速比呈现负相关关系,暗示该地区可能发生过岩浆底侵作用.     

Earthquake prediction on the basis of Vp/Vs variations — a case history

On November 7, 1976, an earthquake of the strike-slip fault type, and of magnitude 6.7, occurred at two mountainous localities, Yanyuan and Ninglang, in the border region of the Szechuan and Yunnan Provinces, China. One year before the earthquake, a prediction was made as to the magnitude and location of the impending earthquake by the present authors, on the basis of the results of a general survey of an area of about 20,000 km² for V_p/V_s ratio variations. The prediction of time of occurrence was made afterwards by the combined analysis of results of observations of some other precursory phenomena. The actual occurrence of the event was generally considered as being in agreement with the prediction.The present study may be taken as a new example for the detection of V_p/V_s ratio variations prior to an earthquake of the strike-slip fault type. By considering the difference between the shear rupture and stick-slip motion and the anisotropy induced by dilatancy, a preliminary discussion is made concerning the related results.     

汶川地震前后波速比变化特征的再研究

收集整理了四川省地震台网1990—2012年产出的地震直达波震相数据, 利用单台多震和达法对2008年汶川M_S8.0地震前后四川地区的波速比变化特征进行了分析研究(共筛选出13个数据量较为丰富、 连续性较好的台站). 结果显示: 其中位于龙门山断裂中北段西侧的4个台站, 震前出现长达7年左右的中长期波速比低值异常; 其它9个台站的波速比震前变化基本稳定. 震前波速比出现异常的4个台站的分布与汶川M_S8.0地震孕震区范围大体一致, 从而为研究汶川M_S8.0地震前是否存在地壳介质特性的时间变化过程, 提供了有力的判定依据.