2010年4月14日玉树Ms7.1地震对余震的触发研究

This paper calculates the static stress changes generated by the Yushu M_S 7. 1 earthquake in Qinghai Province. On the basis of regional stress,we take account of the static stress change triggered by the Yushu M_S 7. 1 earthquake to find the optimally oriented fault planes,then calculate the Coulomb stress change on the optimally oriented fault plane. The results indicate that most of the aftershocks are triggered by the mainshock. The image of Coulomb stress changes is also in accord with regional earthquakes ( M_L ≥3. 0 ) distribution,but the value is lower than 0. 01MPa. In addition,this paper calculates the Coulomb stress changes in the case that the aftershock fault plane is the same as the main shock. Through comparison,we find that the image of Coulomb stress changes obtained using the "optimally oriented fault"approach is more consistent with the distribution of Yushu aftershocks and regional earthquakes.     

Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt,southwestern China

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed.The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo,Daofu,Kangding,Qianning and Ganzi fault.Luohuo(Ms=7.6,1973)-Kangding(Ms=6.2,1975)-Daofu(Ms=6.9,1981)-Ms=6.0,1982)earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than6.0.They occurred on the Luhuo.Kangding,Daofu and Ganzi fault,respectively.The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated,and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed.It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors,and most after-shocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock.With the fault interaction considered,the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed,and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change,the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized.It is con-cluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt,and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30.5%.     

1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震静态库仑应力变化及断裂危险性初步研究

Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.     

京西盆岭构造区积累库仑破裂应力变化对强震的影响

Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional normal faulting. In this paper,we calculate the Coulomb stress change of each earthquake and the cumulative Coulomb stress change,and on this basis we analyze the stress triggering of strong earthquakes. The research shows that there are 10 of 14 earthquakes that occurred in the trigger zones,in which the Coulomb stress change is positive,and the trigger rate is 71%. The positive areas of cumulative Coulomb stress change caused by these 15 earthquakes are: middle of northern Liulengshan fault,Northern Huaizhuo basin fault,Xinbaoan-Shacheng fault,Sangganhe fault and Southern Yuxian basin fault. This necessarily increases the seismic risk of these faults and can be used as a reference for future seismic risk analysis in this area.     

Study on the Triggering Effect of the October, 2005 Pakistan Mw7.6 Earthquake on Its Aftershocks

The influences upon aftershocks of Coulomb failure stress change (CFSC) generated by the main-shock of the October 8, 2005, Pakistan earthquake are calculated and analyzed. The following factors are included in the calculation: (1) the difference between the pore fluid pressure and the medium elastic constant in the fault plane area and those of its surrounding medium; (2) the tectonic stress direction of the seismic source area; (3) the aftershock failure mechanism of aftershocks is calculated by stacking the tectonic stress with the stress change generated by the main-shock. Our study, which includes many factors, fits fairly well with the aftershock distribution. It indicates that most of the aftershocks were triggered by the Pakistan main-shock that occurred on October 8, 2005.     

Numerical Simulation on Coseismic Effect of the November 14,2001 Great Kunlun Earthquake,Northern Tibet,China

The November 14, 2001 Ms8.1 Kunlun Mountains earthquake in northern Tibet is the largest earthquake occurring on the Chinese mainland since 1950. We apply a three-dimensional （3-D） finite element numerical procedure to model the coseismic displacement and stress fields of the earthquake based on field investigations. We then further investigate the stress interaction between the Ms8.1 earthquake and the intensive aftershocks. Our primary calculation shows that the coseismic displacement field is centralized around the east Kunlun fault zone. And the attenuation of coseismic displacements on the south side of Kunlun fault zone is larger than that on the north side. The calculated coseismic stress field also indicates that the calculated maximal shear stress field is centralized around the east Kunlun fault zone; the directions of the coseismic major principal stress are opposite to that of the background crustal stress field of the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau. It indicates that the earthquake relaxes the crustal stress state in the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau. Finally, we study the stress interaction between Ms8.1 earthquake and its intensive aftershocks. The calculated Coulomb stress changes of the Ms8.1 great earthquake are in favor of triggering 4 aftershocks.     

Complete Coulomb stress changes induced by the Ms7.6 earthquake in Lancang-Gengma,Yunnan and triggering of aftershocks by dynamic and static stress

The spatiotemporal evolution patterns of complete Coulomb stress changes caused by 1988 Ms7.6 earthquake in Lancang-Gengma,Yunnan,are calculated and studied.And the triggering problems of Ms7.2 Gengma shock occurring 13 minutes after the main shock and of Ms5.0―6.9 aftershocks within 24 days after the main shock are discussed.The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of complete Coulomb stress changes of the Ms7.6 main shock are strongly asymmetric.The areas of positive dynamic and static Coulomb stress are both coincident well with the strong aftershocks' locations.The Ms7.2 Gengma shock and most of strong aftershocks are subjected to the triggering effect of dynamic and static Coulomb stresses induced by the Ms7.6 Lancang earthquake.     

Visco-elastic stress triggering model of Tangshan earthquake sequence

We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks.     

Study on Stress Triggering During the Activity Process of the Jiashi Strong Earthquake Swarm

The Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of Ms6.8 occurred on February 24, 2003, about 20km from the southeast of the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi seismic region in Xinjiang, and its aftershocks are rich and strong. Did the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm trigger the Bachu-Jiashi Ms6.8 earthquake？ The Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 occurred in 1996, and the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm occurred about 70km from the Atushi earthquake 10 months later. Did the Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 encourage the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm？ There were 9 earthquakes with Ms6.0 from 1996 to 1997 in the Jiashi seismic region, how did they act on each other？ To answer the above questions, the article studies the triggering effect of the activity process of the whole Jiashi earthquake swarm from the 1996 Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7, the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong swarm to the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of Ms6.8, and analyzes the seismicity characteristics around the Jiashi region. The results show that the 1996 Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 encouraged the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong swarm to some extent, the accumulative Coulomb stress change from the previous M6.0 earthquakes of the Jiashi strong swarm had certain triggering effects on the following M6.0 events, and the Coulomb stress change converted from the Jiashi strong swarm strongly encouraged the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake with Ms6.8.     

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

地震大小的度量

The paper begins with a brief review of the research history of earthquake size measurement. On this basis, the author pointed out the following points： ① In recent decades, ML, mb （mH ）, Ms magnitude scales are widely used as measures of earthquake size. However, these magnitude scales have a deficiency of ＂overgeneralization＂ and ＂magnitude saturation＂. Moreover, since they do not fully take into account the regional difference of seismic attenuation, especially the difference of site effects on the amplification of ground motion, these magnitude scales are but inaccurate measures of earthquake size. ② Seismic moment M0 not only has clear physical meaning, but also overcomes the deficiencies existing in ML, mb （mB ） and Ms magnitude scales, so it is the most suitable physical quantity for measuring earthquake size scientifically. In order to continue to use the term ＂magnitude＂, Kanamori defined the moment magnitude scale Act. Although its prerequisite assumptions remain to be studied, it is still a reasonable scale used as a measure of the relative size of an earthquake. ③ For measuring the earthquake size more scientifically, we must make full use of a large amount of waveform data from modern regional digital seismograph networks, strengthen the research on seismic wave attenuation characteristics, site effect, calculation of source parameters and the related scaling relations. In improving the measurement methods for ML, mb （mB ） and Ms magnitude, we should focus on the improvement of Mw scale and carry forward the work as gradually taking Mw magnitude scale as the uniform physical quantity to measure the relative size of earthquakes, so as to lay a more solid foundation for research in earthquake science and earthquake prediction.     

应对汶川特大地震波及乐山事件的做法及思考

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震是有史以来对乐山市波及范围最广、人员伤亡最多、经济损失最大、社会影响最强烈的地震。本文回顾了近几年乐山市在地震应急准备方面所做的工作和汶川特大地震波及乐山后的应急工作,认为坚持不懈地抓好地震应急准备是做好大地震之后应急工作的重要前提,及时有效地开展应急工作是防震减灾部门的重要职责,震后恢复重建中防震减灾部门可以发挥重要作用。     

Research on the Application of Time Structure Variation Analysis to the Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake Swarm Sequence

In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Onl     

新疆喀什-乌恰交汇区地震活动潮汐触发的统计检验

A statistical analysis on earthquake activity in the Kashi-Wuqia intersection area triggered by earth tide is done by Schuster＇s test and the Permutation test on daily and monthly scales. The north-south, east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are chosen as the tidal curve in the daily scale. The results show that most of the earthquakes occurred near the maximum 0° of the three kinds of tidal curves, the predominant tidal phases of the earthquake are - 5. 86°, 6. 60° and - 15. 52°, and the frequency of the earthquakes increases with the increase of the tide; with three kinds of tidal curves （the north-south, east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress ）, the Ps of Schuster＇s test for all the earthquakes is 10. 52 %, 2. 40 % and 2. 06 %, and the pp of the Permutation test is 10. 90%, 2. 40% and 2. 06%, and the results ofps andpp based on the east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are below the threshold of 0. 05 that tidal triggering of earthquakes. In the monthly scale, both the Ps and pp are very low （ close to 0 ）, far below the threshold of 0. 05 of tidal triggering of earthquakes, and the predominant tidal phase for earthquake triggering is - 18. 95°, close to the maximum 0° （ new moon and full moon） of the earth tide in monthly scale. Regarding the statistical test result of tidal triggering of earthquakes, a preliminary explanation is given as to why the trigger effect in the east-west direction is greater than that in north-south direction.     

汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带孕震构造运动特征分析?

On the basis of elastic rebound theory, using the horizontal velocity field of the Chinese mainland calculated from GPS data during three observation periods from 1999 to 2007, the velocity components that are parallel and plumb to the fault zone are calculated respectively for different periods, and then relative ground movements of two sides of the fault zone are analyzed with power function fitting and graphics. The results show that the relative ground movement shows right-lateral shear deformation before the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake, and at the same time the movement was hindered by the Longmenshan fault zone. Thus, this result has positive significance for distinguishing the elastic strain energy accumulation and deformation anomaly in an earthquake preparation process, and for conducting further research on earthquake prediction.     

A rotary-shear low to high-velocity friction apparatus in Beijing to study rock friction at plate to seismic slip rates

This paper reviews 19 apparatuses having highvelocity capabilities,describes a rotary-shear low to highvelocity friction apparatus installed at Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,and reports results from velocity-jump tests on Pingxi fault gouge to illustrate technical problems in conducting velocity-stepping tests at high velocities.The apparatus is capable of producing plate to seismic velocities（44 mm/a to 2.1 m/s for specimens of 40 mm in diameter）,using a 22 kW servomotor with a gear/belt system having three velocity ranges.A speed range can be changed by 103 or 106by using five electromagnetic clutches without stopping the motor.Two cam clutches allow fivefold velocity steps,and the motor speed can be increased from zero to 1,500 rpm in 0.1-0.2 s by changing the controlling voltage.A unique feature of the apparatus is a large specimen chamber where different specimen assemblies can be installed easily.In addition to a standard specimen assembly for friction experiments,two pressure vessels were made for pore pressures to 70 MPa;one at room temperature and the other at temperatures to 500 °C.Velocity step tests are needed to see if the framework of rate-and-state friction is applicable or not at high velocities.We report results from velocity jump tests from 1.4 mm/s to 1.4 m/s on yellowish gouge from a Pingxi fault zone,located at the northeastern part of the Longmenshan fault system that caused the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.An instantaneous increase in friction followed by dramatic slip weakening was observed for the yellowish gouge with smooth sliding surfaces of host rock,but no instantaneous response was recognized for the same gouge with roughened sliding surfaces.Instantaneous and transient frictional properties upon velocity steps cannot be separated easily at high velocities,and technical improvements for velocity step tests are suggested.     

GNSS在断层形变研究中的应用

Great earthquakes often occur along or near active fault belts. Thus, monitoring and research on fault deformation are quite important. Methods such as short-leveling, short- baseline and integrated monitoring profile across fault belts have been used to monitor fault activities for many years. GNSS observations are mainly used to obtain the horizontal velocity field in large areas and to study the activities and deformation of major blocks. GNSS technology has been used to monitor and study the deformation of faults from a different aspects, In this paper, some applications and new explorations of GNSS are discussed. They are： （1） Research and monitoring of strike-slip activities of faults with GNSS. （2） Research and monitoring of vertical activities of faults with GNSS. （3） Investigating the laws of deformation of blocks on the sides of fault zone and setting up strain models to deduce the activities and deformation of faults with respective models and compare the deduced results with the actual measurements across fault. It is concluded that a larger discrepancy between the deduced and the observed deformation indicates a stronger interaction between the blocks, which can be important for predicting the location of a strong earthquake and assessing seismic hazard, as well as the seismicity trend.     

2013 年芦山MS7.0 地震前甘孜台地电阻率变化分析

A trend increase in apparent resistivity has been observed in the N30°E monitoring direction at Garze Seismic Station since July 2011. This increase trend in geo-electric resistivity has been observed in the N60°W direction since 2012. During the period of the increase, the national highway No.317 was expanded in the monitoring area, so the potential electrodes in the N30°E direction had to be moved 10m towards the current electrodes. We interpreted the electric sounding data of Garz6 Seismic Station with a horizontally layered model. Analysis based on this model showed that the shift of potential electrodes can cause a 4 l-l.m rise to the measurements in the N30°E direction. Therefore, apparent resistivity of the two directions increased in the same time in 2012 after offsetting the effects from electrodes shift. Sensitivity coefficients of the two observation directions were also obtained using the model. Sensitivity coefficients of both directions were negative for the shallow layers, which can well explain the unexpected annual variations of Garze Seismic Station. In order to quantitatively analyze the effects from the expansion of the national highway on the observation, we constructed a finite element model based on the electrical structure. Analysis results also suggested that the expansion of the national highway could only cause a 0. 15 Ω·m decrease in the N60°W monitoring direction and 0. 1 Ω· m increase in the N30°E direction. Additionally, the valley values of annual variation of 2013 were distinctively higher than that of other years since 2008, meaning that there was an abnormal rise in apparent resistivity in the two observation directions at Garz~ Seismic Station before the Lushan earthquake. However, the rise was contrary to the decline variation before the Wenchuan earthquake. Therefore, it is still unsure whether or not the rise variation is related to the Lushan earthquake.     

由四川省防震减灾科普示范学校引发的思考

5·12汶川特大地震造成人民生命财产重大损失。四川省防震减灾科普示范学校由于平时注重在学生中进行防震减灾知识教育和避震应急演练,在此次地震中均能做到临危不乱,快速撤到安全地带,将灾害损失降到了最低。鲜活的事例说明,有无防震减灾知识和自救互救技能,地震后的效果大不一样。     

Heating Stage Experimental Study of Melt Inclusions in Feldspars from Three Holocene Eruptions of Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano

There occurred several eruptions from Changbaishan Tianchi volcano in Holocene, and at least three of them were believed to be true according to the formal studies. The products of three eruptions were yellow comenditic pumice of - 5000a B.P. （Eruption Ⅰ ）, gray comenditic pumice and pyroclastic flow of - 1000a B.P. （ Eruption II, i.e. the millennium explosive eruption）, black trachy pumice and welded tuff of - 300a B.P. （ Eruption Ⅲ ） respectively. There were a large number of melt inclusions found in phenocrysts, which differ in size and color. The Leitz 1350 heating stage experiments for melt inclusions in host feldspars from three Holocene eruptions of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano imply that there were little differences between the homogenization temperatures of melt inclusions from Eruptions Ⅰ and Ⅲ, whereas it was rather complicated for Eruption H, i.e. there might be two kinds of melt with different homogenization temperature periods, which gave the evidence for the assumption that the explosive millennium eruption of Tianchi volcano was triggered by injection and mixing of two different magmas. The experimental results also indicate that （ 1 ） small melt inclusion is easy to be homogenized, while the large one, especially the one with lots of daughter crystals, is rather difficult to be homogenized; （2） homogenization temperature closely correlates with the size of melt inclusion within host crystal, with the temperature point switching from high heating rate to low heating rate, and correlates with whether it is the first time to obtain homogenization as well; and （3） a melt inclusion can get different homogenization temperatures when it is repeatedly heated. Even more, the next homogenization temperature is usually higher than the former one, which testifies the phenomenon that hydrogen migration occurs during repeated heating.