2014年于田MS7.3地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及对周边断层的影响

This paper calculates the static Coulomb stress changes generated by four earthquakes in the Yutian area during 2008 ~ 2014 separately, then discusses the triggering influence, their accumulated Coulomb stress changes and their influence on nearby faults. The results indicate that the Ms5. 5 earthquake in 2011 and the Ms7. 3 earthquake in 2014 are both in the regions where the Coulomb stress change is positive, the stress changes are 0. 004MPa and 0. 021MPa, respectively, meaning they are triggered by prior earthquakes. The Ms6. 2 earthquake in 2012 occurred in the place where Coulomb stress change was negative, so it is postponed by the prior earthquakes. The image of Coulomb stress changes of the Ms 7. 3 earthquake in 2014 is in accord with aftershocks （ML ≥ 3. 0 ） distribution, but some regions on the fault where the Coulomb stress change is positive have few aftershocks, and strong aftershocks may occur at these districts in future. In addition, this paper calculates the Coulomb stress change on nearby faults, and finds that the Coulomb stress changes of different elements in the GGC fault are very different, and must receive strong triggered-influence, though the result may be influenced by the input finite fault model, so there is still a large earthquake-risk. The GGN, PLC, PLW and LBW faults were also triggered by the four earthquakes occurring between 2008 ~ 2014. Their maximum Coulomb stress changes all exceed 0. 002MPa, so they also have a strong earthquake hazard.     

1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震静态库仑应力变化及断裂危险性初步研究

Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.     

Visco-elastic stress triggering model of Tangshan earthquake sequence

We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks.     

Implication of fault interaction to seismic hazard assessment in Sichuan-Yunnan provinces of southeastern China

Coulomb stress changes associated with the strong earthquakes that occurred since 1904 in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces of China are investigated. The study area comprises the most active seismic fault zones in the Chinese mainland and suffers from both strong and frequent events. The tectonic regime of this rhombic-shaped area is affected by the eastern extrusion of the Tibetan highland due to the collision of Eurasian Plate against the Indian lithospheric block along the Himalayan convergent zone. This movement is accommodated on major strike-slip intraplate fault zones that strike in an E-W direction. The gradual 90° clockwise rotation of the faults in the study area contributes to the complexity of the stress field. The seismic hazard assessment in this region is attempted by calculating the change of the Coulomb Failure Function (?CFF) arising from both the coseismic slip of strong events (MS≥6.5) and the stress built-up by continuous tectonic loading on major regional faults. At every step of the stress evolutionary model an examination of possible triggering of each next strong event is made and the model finally puts in evidence the fault segments that apt to fail in an impending strong event, thus providing fu-ture seismic hazard evaluation.     

Research on seismic stress triggering

Introduction What is called seismic stress triggering refers to that stress change tensor produced by previous earthquake projected on the fault plane and slip direction of subsequent earthquakes, taking into account normal stress, pore pressure and friction coefficient, and Coulomb failure stress change DCFS can be obtained. If the direction of Coulomb failure stress changes are consistent with slip direction of subsequent seismic mechanism, e.g., Coulomb failure stress changes are positive…     

2010年4月14日玉树Ms7.1地震对余震的触发研究

This paper calculates the static stress changes generated by the Yushu M_S 7. 1 earthquake in Qinghai Province. On the basis of regional stress,we take account of the static stress change triggered by the Yushu M_S 7. 1 earthquake to find the optimally oriented fault planes,then calculate the Coulomb stress change on the optimally oriented fault plane. The results indicate that most of the aftershocks are triggered by the mainshock. The image of Coulomb stress changes is also in accord with regional earthquakes ( M_L ≥3. 0 ) distribution,but the value is lower than 0. 01MPa. In addition,this paper calculates the Coulomb stress changes in the case that the aftershock fault plane is the same as the main shock. Through comparison,we find that the image of Coulomb stress changes obtained using the "optimally oriented fault"approach is more consistent with the distribution of Yushu aftershocks and regional earthquakes.     

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

中国大陆MS≥7.0地震与潮汐库仑破裂应力关系研究

In this paper, we focused on earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Chinese mainland from 1900 to 2012, calculated the lunisolar tidal Coulomb failure stress on the seismic fault plane and got the tidal phase through Schuster＇s test, then quantitatively analyzed the correlation between strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland and tidal Coulomb failure stress. Research shows that among 57 strong earthquakes with focal mechanism solutions, over 71.9% took place within the tidal loading phase, with the p-value of 3.83%, indicating that strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7. 0 in Chinese mainland have a certain correlation with lunisolar tidal Coulomb failure stress. In the active period, the p-value is 4. 56%, 75.5% of earthquakes occurred in the tidal loading phase zone, and 50% of earthquakes occurred in the quiescence period, indicating that strong earthquakes in the active period were obviously triggered with the tidal Coulomb failure stress loading.     

Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt,southwestern China

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed.The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo,Daofu,Kangding,Qianning and Ganzi fault.Luohuo(Ms=7.6,1973)-Kangding(Ms=6.2,1975)-Daofu(Ms=6.9,1981)-Ms=6.0,1982)earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than6.0.They occurred on the Luhuo.Kangding,Daofu and Ganzi fault,respectively.The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated,and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed.It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors,and most after-shocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock.With the fault interaction considered,the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed,and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change,the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized.It is con-cluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt,and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30.5%.     

Research on the Dynamic Change of Regional Stress Fields before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Using the digital telemetric seismic waveform data of Chengdu and Kunming, this article studies the focal mechanism solutions and the apparent stress values of a large number of small earthquakes, and then analyzes the dynamic variation of regional stress fields and the spatio-temporal distribution of apparent stress values. The annual variation values of the azimuth of average principal stress field before the May 12, 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in the Sichuan-Yunnan region were 58° from 2003 to 2004, 85° from 2003 to 2005,61° from 2006 to 2007 and 90° from 2006 to April 2008 respectively. In recent years, deflection or disturbances occurred in the azimuth of the average principal stress field in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Analysis shows that this may be related to the change of stress field states of crustal blocks before and after the December 26, 2004 M_S9.0 Sumatra earthquake and the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. The ratio of thrust-type earthquakes in the Sichuan-Qinghai block was on the higher side in the period from 2006 to 2007, and the source faulting type of the regional moderate and small earthquakes had changed before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. The change of state of the stress field is consistent with the changes in block displacement fields revealed by GPS data and the crustal shortening velocity vertical to the Longmenshan fault zone. Based on the radiation energy calculated from all bands of the seismic waveform, the value of apparent stress σ_app is obtained. The fluctuation shape of the fitting trend of the apparent stress is related to the intensity of regional seismicity. It reveals that the micro-dynamic fluctuation process of the regional stress value is similar to the azimuth transition of the regional principal compressive stress field, which can be used to probe for pregnant physical processes. Areas with a higher value of apparent stress σ_app are possible areas of potential seismic risk. It can be seen from the spatial distribution of the medium and short-term apparent stress σ_app before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the Longmenshan fault zone is in a low stress distribution area, and the relatively high apparent stress is in the peripheral area. These images may show medium and short-term locking phenomena near the seismogenic tectonics of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. For example, changes with time of the focal parameter consistency of the sub-blocks in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, continual increase of thrust-type earthquakes in the Sichuan-Qinghai block and the appearance of spatial distribution areas of high apparent σ_app stress. The work on this aspect was continued after the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, and the results seem to be shown a clearer relationship between these phenomena and future great earthquakes.     

京西盆岭构造区积累库仑破裂应力变化对强震的影响

以拉张正断层作用为主的京西盆岭活动构造区(112°～116.2°N, 38.3°～41.5°E)自BC231年以来共记载和记录15次M6～7.5地震。 本研究计算每一次强震产生的以及逐次积累的库仑破裂静应力变化, 并分析强震之间的应力触发关系。 结果显示在14次后发的强震中, 有10次发生在先发强震产生的积累库仑破裂静应力变化为正的触发区, 触发率为71%。 所有15次历史强震作用共同引起研究区积累库仑破裂静应力变化的正值区, 主要分布于六棱山北麓断裂中段、 怀涿盆地北缘断裂、 新保安沙城断裂、 桑干河断裂以及蔚县盆地南缘断裂, 并使得这些断裂(段)的强震危险性有所增加, 这可为分析研究区的未来强震危险性提供参考。     

青藏高原东北缘主要断裂带的库仑应力演化及其强震危险性

自1920年海原发生M8.5地震以来,青藏高原东北缘接连发生了1927年古浪M8.0地震、1932年昌马M7.6地震等一系列大地震,使其进入了强震活动的丛集期。为了探究青藏高原东北缘这一系列地震间的相互作用及区域地震危险性,建立青藏高原东北缘的三维Maxwell黏弹性有限元模型,模拟了区域自1920年以来17次M6.7以上地震的同震及震后库仑应力演化。结果显示：研究区自1920年海原M8.5大地震之后,后续的16次地震中,有13次地震发生在库仑应力变化为正的区域,说明了地震间的相互作用可能是导致区域地震丛集的主要原因之一。系列地震发生后,阿尔金断裂、柴达木盆地断裂西段、东昆仑断裂中段、鄂拉山断裂北段、共和盆地断裂南段、日月山断裂南段、庄浪河断裂、礼县—罗家堡断裂、成县盆地断裂西段、文县断裂西段、龙首山断裂南段、六盘山断裂东段、西秦岭北缘断裂东段、海原断裂西段和祁连断裂东段位于库仑应力变化为正的区域,且大部分断裂或断裂段的累积库仑应力变化超过了0.01 MPa,它们未来的地震危险性较高。     

COULOMB STRESS CHANGE ON ACTIVE FAULTS IN SICHUAN-YUNNAN REGION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR SEISMIC HAZARD

Coulomb stress change on active faults is critical for seismic hazard analysis and has been widely used at home and abroad. The Sichuan-Yunnan region is one of the most tectonically and seismically active regions in Mainland China, considering some highly-populated cities and the historical earthquake records in this region, stress evolution and seismic hazard on these active faults capture much attention. From the physical principal, the occurrence of earthquakes will not only cause stress drop and strain energy release on the seismogenic faults, but also transfer stress to the surrounding faults, hence alter the shear and normal stress on the surrounding faults that may delay, hasten or even trigger subsequent earthquakes. Previously, most studies focus on the coseismic Coulomb stress change according to the elastic dislocation model. However, the gradually plentiful observation data attest to the importance of postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effect during the analysis of seismic interactions, stress evolution along faults and the cumulative effect on the longer time scale of the surrounding fault zone. In this paper, in order to assess the seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region, based on the elastic dislocation theory and the stratified viscoelastic model, we employ the PSGRN/PSCMP program to calculate the cumulative Coulomb stress change on the main boundary faults and in inner blocks in this region, by combining the influence of coseismic dislocations of the M≥7.0 historical strong earthquakes since the Yongsheng M7.8 earthquake in 1515 in Sichuan-Yunnan region and M≥8.0 events in the neighboring area, and the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effect of the lower crust and upper mantle. The results show that the Coulomb stress change increases significantly in the south section of the Xianshuihe Fault, the Anninghe Fault, the northern section of the Xiaojiang Fault, the southern section of the Longmen Shan Fault, the intersection of the Chuxiong-Jianshui Fault and the Xiaojiang Fault, and the Shawan section of the Litang Fault, in which the cumulative Coulomb stress change exceeds 0.1MPa. The assuming different friction coefficient has little effect on the stress change, as for the strike-slip dominated faults, the shear stress change is much larger than the normal stress change, and the shear stress change is the main factor controlling the Coulomb stress change on the fault plane. Meanwhile, we compare the Coulomb stress change in the 10km and 15km depths, and find that for most faults, the results are slightly different. Additionally, based on the existing focal mechanism solutions, we add the focal mechanism solutions of the 5 675 small-medium earthquakes(2.5≤M≤4.9)in Sichuan-Yunnan region from January 2009 to July 2019, and invert the directions of the three principal stresses and the stress shape factor in 0.1°×0.1° grid points; by combining the grid search method, we compare the inverted stress tensors with that from the actual seismic data, and further obtain the optimal stress tensors. Then, we project the stress tensors on the two inverted nodal planes separately, and select the maximum Coulomb stress change to represent the stress change at the node. The results show that the cumulative Coulomb stress change increase in the triple-junction of Sichuan-Yunnan-Tibet region is also significant, and the stress change exceeds 0.1MPa. Comprehensive analysis of the Coulomb stress change, seismic gaps and seismicity parameters suggest that more attention should be paid to the Anninghe Fault, the northern section of the Xiaojiang Fault, the south section of the Xianshuihe Fault, the southern section of the Longmen Shan Fault and the triple-junction of the Sichuan-Yunnan-Tibet region. These results provide a basis for future seismic hazard analysis in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.     

Dynamic simulation of interactions between major earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault zone

The authors firstly evaluate the strain accumulation rate of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on earth- quake activity. We calculated the stress and seismic moment accumulation rate for each subsection of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on the distribution of geological slip rate and GPS survey results. According to the results, we get the recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each sub- section respectively. A three-dimensional finite element model for western Sichuan is constructed to discuss the earthquakes triggering among major earthquakes (M>6.7) that occurred along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1893. The calculated Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) show that 5 of the 6 earthquakes with Ms>6.7 were triggered by positive ΔCFS. The interactions between major earthquakes not only influence recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each subsection, but also change recurrence behavior of major earthquakes along the whole fault zone.     

COULOMB STRESS EVOLUTION AND SEISMIC HAZARD ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

Using a more realistic model of multi-layered viscoelastic media, and considering the effects of the coseismic dislocation and the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation caused by the 34 great earthquakes occurring along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block since 1480 and the interseismic stress accumulation caused by the tectonic loading generated by plate motions which were modeled by introducing "virtual negative displacements" along the major fault segment in the region under study, we calculated the evolution of the Coulomb stress change in each fault plane of 18 major fault segments along the eastern boundary caused by the coseismic, postseismic and interseismic effects. We studied the interactions of the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones on the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. By evaluating if the previous earthquake could bring another earthquake closer to or farther from failure, we analyzed the interactions of the earthquakes which occurred in the different segments in the same fault zone, or in the different fault zones respectively. And further based on the calculation results of the Coulomb stress change on the fault planes, we analyzed the seismic hazard of each fault segment.The results show that the previous earthquake may trigger another earthquake which can occur in the same fault zone or in the different fault zone. And the calculation results on the evolution of the cumulative Coulomb stress change in the each fault segment show that, the Coulomb stress increases significantly in the middle section and the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault zone, the Qiaojia-dongchuan segment and the Jianshui segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, and the seismic hazard in these fault segments is worthy paying attention to.     

THE COULOMB STRESS CHANGES AND SEISMICITY ON SOME MAJOR FAULTS IN NORTH CHINA

In recent years, the Coulomb stress change induced by large earthquakes has attracted extensive attention in seismology. Many scientists at home and abroad have made remarkable achievements in the research on it. It is well known that North China is densely populated and industrially developed. More importantly, the Chinese capital city, Beijing, lies in the hinterland of North China. At the same time, there are abundant active faults and earthquakes in North China. The capital Beijing is China's political, economic, cultural, and transportation center. It is the center of all social activities and economic activities in the country, and is also a region where population, wealth, and information are highly concentrated. With the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Xiong'an New District, the consequences of big earthquake in Beijing and surrounding areas are unimaginable. Due to its special geographical location, frequent seismic activities in North China capture much attention. From the physical principle, the occurrence of earthquakes releases the accumulated stress, but the stress does not completely disappear. Some of the stresses are transmitted and transferred to other areas, resulting in stress concentration in some areas, which in turn affects the occurrence of earthquakes in the area. This is the idea of stress triggering of earthquakes. According to this hypothesis, the enhancement of Coulomb stress corresponds to the additional loading of the fault and promotes the occurrence of earthquakes; conversely, the weakening of the Coulomb stress in the stress shadow zone corresponds to partial unloading of the fault, which will delay the occurrence of the earthquake. In order to study the future seismic activity of North China, this paper estimates risks of future strong earthquakes in the region. To this end, we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation stresses of the events with M_S ≥ 6.0 that occurred in the North China region since 1820, using elastic dislocation theory and hierarchical lithosphere model, respectively, in order to examine whether the cumulative Coulomb stress change can explain the spatiotemporal pattern of large earthquakes. Also we project the Coulomb stress change onto the specific active faults in North China and assign the present and future Coulomb stress change state to the faults to provide a dynamics reference for analyzing whether the areas will be hit by strong earthquakes in the future. The simulated results show that the effect caused by the effective friction coefficient changes is not significant on the spatial distribution of Coulomb stress changes induced by coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effect of the medium of earthquakes in the North China region. Although the variation of the effective friction coefficient has an impact on the Coulomb stresses for some sections of faults, the general pattern of the spatial distribution of the Coulomb stress changes keeps unchanged. Consequently, 19 of the 24 earthquakes since the 1888 Bohai Bay earthquake have fallen in the positive region of Coulomb stress changes, with a triggering rate of 79%. In particular, considering the seismogeological data and the Coulomb stress calculation results, we assume that Luanxian-Yueting Fault, Panzhuangxi Fault, Dongming-Chengwu Fault, Yuncheng Fault, Longyao Fault of Ninghe-Xinxiang seismic belt, the Yingkou-Weifang Fault of Tanlu seismic belt, the Xiadian Fault, and the Huangzhuang-Gaoliying Fault in the Capital area have higher seismic risk and deserve in-depth study.     

1975年海城地震和1976年和林格尔强震与1976年唐山大震的关系讨论

从北纬40°纬向地震带活动的关系探讨了华北3次强震发生的同时性的原因,这条EW向地震带首先发生的地震传递的能量促使唐山积累了发震能量,而另一条由邢台、河间NE走向的下地壳蠕滑断层的能量传至唐山断层后,解锁了该孕震断层,从而发生了唐山大震。地震波的触发作用也是同步的另一个原因,除了震动的断层面的直接触发之外,对组合模式中单地震波的积累与调整也会产生触发作用而改变其性质。另外还从中国8级大地震发生的25年周期讨论了同步性。     

兰州-天水地区三维重力反演及其地质解释

本文利用重力资料对兰州－天水地区的深部构造进行了研究。在计算中，采用Ｐａｒｋｅｒ－Ｏｌｄｅｎｂａｒｇ三维位场反演方法，反演前对重力资料进行了地形改和中新生低沉积层校正。根据反演结构，综合反演结果，综合分析了有关资料，认为该区为青藏块体过渡带，并且并且提出了陇中盆地为断块型构造盆地的新认识。