细胞自动机的多重分形特征和动力学根源

用大量弹簧滑块组成的模型可以模拟地震的复杂性，本文以细胞自动机（ＣＡ）为数学工具，结合地震学和岩石力学的结果，考虑了能量的输入和损耗，进行了地震事件的数字模拟。对模型中输出的“地震”事件进行了时间和空间的多分形分析，并对自组织临界（ＳＯＣ）状态进行了讨论，进而得到事件至少在时间域里的分布呈现出层次结构，符合自相似特征。本文的ＣＡ模型属于确定性的混沌系统，而对于处在ＳＯＣ状态下的大量事件的频度和大小的统计与Ｇ－Ｒ指数律很好地吻合。结果表明，虽然自组织（ＳＯ）可能是更准确的地震表征，但ＳＯＣ仍然是研究地震现象的很好的模式。     

自组织临界系统中地震平静是大地震即将发生的标志

地震活动的断层系统有可能处于自组织临界（SOC）状态。以简单的自组织临界模型的研究说明，地震从本质上讲也许是不可预测的。本文中，我们使用更复杂、更切合实际的自组织临界模型分析了地震的可预测性问题。这个模型是由具有暂态蠕变特性的弹簧－滑块系统构成的。该模型除了能够再现地震大小的幂律分布外，还可再现前震和余震序列。所模拟的地震序列还表明，除了大地震之前在短临阶段地震活动性的迅速增强外，平均来说这些事件发生在中期时间尺度的地震活动性降低之后。这个时期的地震活动性降低明显和持续时间越长，后续的主震震级也就越大。我们发现，地震活动平静期的检测有助于改进与时间无关的危险性评估工作。这种改进对最大目标地震的危险性估计最重要。     

随机性细胞自动机的地震模拟的动力学含义

结合随机的能量输入和确定的能量损耗，本文用随机性细胞自动机(CA)进行了地震事件的数字模拟，并对事件进行了能量分维和时间序列的多重分形分析。初步结果表明，大量事件的能量-频次的统计分布可能遵从最经典的Gutenberg—Richter关系．不同的初始能量分布和不同的能量传递准则都对模型的输出产生影响，b值与模型参数的设置密切相关，地震现象本质上的复杂性可能是随机性与确定性的统一体现。     

关于地震丛集特征、成因及临界状态的讨论

给出了研究地震临界丛集现象的最新方法,即时间变异诊断方法。讨论了不同类型的地震丛集活动特征和成因,结合中国大陆及邻区M≥ 8. 0大震序列和华北地区自1966年以来M≥6. 0地震序列,研究了丛集状态的自相似性及临界时间分支现象。对发震系统的内部时间给出了定义,并研究了地震丛集的非线性时间结构特征。研究认为: ① 事件的发生意味着系统现存的能量一次跳跃式的释放和状态的一次转换。只有当系统以某种足够随机方式动作时,系统状态才会转换,事件才会发生;② 涨落是系统状态的探测器,在临界状态时系统出现很大的涨落,时间变异系数W= 1。临界丛集是由系统内在随机性决定的,事件发生时间是随机地出现的,未来可能出现不止一次的W= 1的临界点;③ 相继发生的事件(M≥ M₀) 可以反映系统的演化过程和特征,丛集是系统演化过程中的有序性和无序性的综合反映;④ 事件丛集和丛集的事件具有自相似性和分形结构,也具有耗散系统的自组织和映射特点;⑤ 根据时间变异系数,系统内部时间(年龄),时间间隔与所经历时间非线性关系式以及映射和迭代方法可以用来预测未来地震趋势和未来M≥ M₀ 地震发生的可能时间点。     

对地震分形特征的几点认识

本文简述了分形和分维在地震学中应用的主要方面,从地震现象的自组织过程和尺度不变性。分析了实验室岩石破裂试验与实际地震观测之间的异同,对地震发生的自组织临界模式(SOC)作了简要的介绍。文中后一部份概述了复杂现象的多分形(Multifractals)和广义分维Dq的基本概念,以及计算Dq的方法,并给出了广义分维应用于地震活动研究的例子,指出Dq(q<0)随q变化的形态特征,在地震前兆信息的提取中可能有重要意义。     

高烈度地震区岩土体边坡崩塌动力学特性研究

"5·12"汶川特大地震引发的次生山地灾害中以山体崩塌数量最多.本文在对国道213线都江堰至映秀段以及水磨支线公路边坡地震崩塌调查研究的基础上,分析总结了岩土体边坡的崩塌成灾模式、崩塌作用机理以及崩塌自组织临界(SOC)动力学特性.调查范围包括Ⅸ～Ⅺ度地震区,工点105个.对崩塌体方量、崩塌深度进行统计分析后发现,在Ⅸ度区崩塌体方量和崩塌深度都符合负幂律分布,呈现出明显的自组织临界动力学特性;而Ⅹ、Ⅺ度地震区不呈现该崩塌特性,其崩塌动力学性质受地震的强扰作用控制.     

地震巨灾模型中的随机地震事件集模拟

地震巨灾保险是降低地震灾害风险的有效手段之一,而地震危险性分析是地震巨灾模型的主要分析模块之一。传统的概率地震危险性分析主要是基于潜在震源模型、地震活动性模型和地震动衰减模型等并采用概率方法得到场点的地震危险性值,该危险性表示的是未来所有地震对场点的综合影响。然而,在使用地震巨灾模型进行地震风险分析时需要用到单个地震事件对场点的影响,这就需要根据潜在震源区生成一系列单个地震事件,并计算每个事件对场点的影响。本研究采用蒙特卡洛方法,基于第五代中国地震动参数区划图中所采用的地震活动性模型(潜在震源区及其地震活动性参数),模拟符合我国地震活动时间、空间和强度分布特征的地震事件集。模拟时遵从的基本理论为:地震发生在时间上符合泊松分布,震级分布可用古登堡-里克特定律来描述,空间分布特征则用潜在震源区及其地震发生率来描述。模拟得到的地震事件包含以下参数:时间(年、月、日)、地点(经度、纬度)、深度、震级、断层走向以及衰减特征等。该模拟地震事件集可满足地震巨灾模型中地震风险分析的需求,已应用于我国地震巨灾模型中。     

非平稳地震激励下隔震曲线梁桥振动控制研究

曲线梁桥由于其平面不规则性导致结构在地震激励下产生弯扭耦合效应,使得隔震曲线梁桥的地震响应更加复杂。目前常用的控制方法是将隔震技术与附加减震装置相结合对曲线梁桥进行控制。本文将地震动考虑为一均匀调制非平稳随机过程,针对隔震曲线梁桥长周期、低频率的特点,选取Clough-Pension平稳地震动功率谱模型作为随机地震动输入模型,对无控(NON-C)、经典线性最优控制(COC)以及序列最优控制算法(SOC)三种状态下的曲线桥梁进行随机响应分析。通过建立曲线梁桥在随机地震动作用下的运动方程,求出减震控制结构的位移谱密度、加速度谱密度响应及时变方差。分析结果表明:序列最优控制算法(SOC)在使隔震层位移得到减小的同时,可以更有效地控制上部结构的地震响应,具有更好的控制效果。     

利用短周期P波确定小震震源参数的新方法

提出了一种通过短周期(0.5～2Hz)P波反演来确定小震震源机制和地震矩的新方法,其中用已知震源机制的4级地震来校正没有给定模型的速度结构的影响。校正基于震群波形的分析,其结果显示震群中不同大小的地震事件,例如4级和2级,在短周期频带上显示出相似的信号,表明了传播过程的稳定。由于4级和2级地震事件的拐角频率都高于2Hz,因此可以认为是点源,并且没有给定模型的结构对短周期P波的影响可以由已知震源机制的4级地震推导出。同样,已经很好确定了参数的2级小震也能够为在更高频率,例如2～8Hz上研究更小的地震事件提供校正。尤其是我们发现,未给定模型的结构对短周期P波的影响主要是数据和一维合成之间的振幅的差异。我们定义"振幅放大因子"(AAF)为数据和一维合成之间的振幅比,不同的震群事件得到的AAF基本一致,有很好的稳定性且与震源机制无关,因此,它的简单函数为研究小震提供了有用的校正。我们用校正过的数据和短周期P波的合成来确定震源机制,并且采用网格搜索的方法来使拟合的误差最小化。确认检验显示了在重现可靠结果中AAF因子校正的重要性和有用性。我们以2003年的大贝尔震群为例对这一方法进行了说明。但该方法对南加州其他震源区的应用结果也同样很好,因为我们已经说明10km×10km的震源区AAF因子的稳定性和与震源机制的无关性。根据定义,AAF因子包含台站场地效应、路经效应和地壳散射效应。尽管想要分离出这些效应已经证明是很困难的,但AAF的稳定性和与震源机制无关性说明它们主要受接收台站附近场地结构的影响。另外,不同地区不同地震事件的垂向分量和径向分量AAF的比值看起来一致,说明这些AAF(v)/AAF(r)比值可能是场地条件的简单函数。本文得到了92个大贝尔地震序列ML2.0级以上地震的震源机制和地震矩。这些震源平面解包含了大量精细的断层结构情况,但仍与地震活动图案吻合得很好。最后我们提出符合3个震级档(2.0相似文献   

沂沭断裂带近期地震活动性分析

本文研究了沂沭带近期(1970～1986)地震活动性指标的时序变化,设计了分布模型并进行统计检验,结合地震空间分布特点综合分析认为,该带地震活动性指标无明显异常,空间分布状态稳定,时间分布服从泊松模型。说明近期沂沭带处于稳定受力状态,地震为正常背景性活动。     

Towards a new view of earthquake phenomena

Recent advances in the theory of fracture and fragmentation are reviewed. Empirical laws in seismology are interpreted from a fractal perspective, and earthquakes are viewed as a self-organized critical phenomenon (SOC). Earthquakes occur as an energy dissipation process in the earth's crust to which the tectonic energy is continuously input. The crust self-organizes into the critical state and the temporal and spatial fractal structure emerges naturally. Power-law relations known in seismology are the expression of the critical state of the crust. An SOC model for earthquakes, which explains the Gutenberg-Richter relation, the Omori's formula of aftershocks and the fractal distribution of hypocenters, is presented. A new view of earthquake phenomena shares a common standpoint with other disciplines to study natural complex phenomena with a unified theory.     

Evolving Towards a Critical Point: A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/Energy Release Prior to Large and Great Earthquakes

—There is growing evidence that some proportion of large and great earthquakes are preceded by a period of accelerating seismic activity of moderate-sized earthquakes. These moderate earthquakes occur during the years to decades prior to the occurrence of the large or great event and over a region larger than its rupture zone. The size of the region in which these moderate earthquakes occur scales with the size of the ensuing mainshock, at least in continental regions. A number of numerical simulation studies of faults and fault systems also exhibit similar behavior. The combined observational and simulation evidence suggests that the period of increased moment release in moderate earthquakes signals the establishment of long wavelength correlations in the regional stress field. The central hypothesis in the critical point model for regional seismicity is that it is only during these time periods that a region of the earth’s crust is truly in or near a "self-organized critical" (SOC) state, such that small earthquakes are capable of cascading into much larger events. The occurrence of a large or great earthquake appears to dissipate a sufficient proportion of the accumulated regional strain to destroy these long wavelength stress correlations and bring the region out of a SOC state. Continued tectonic strain accumulation and stress transfer during smaller earthquakes eventually re-establishes the long wavelength stress correlations that allow for the occurrence of larger events. These increases in activity occur over longer periods and larger regions than quiescence, which is usually observed within the rupture zone of a coming large event. The two phenomena appear to have different physical bases and are not incompatible with one another.     

Rethinking Earthquake Prediction

—We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and their possible societal uses differ for those time scales. Earthquake prediction should not be equated solely with short-term prediction—those with time scales of hours to weeks—nor should it be assumed that only short-term warnings either are or might be useful to society. A variety of "consumers" or stakeholders are likely to take different mitigation measures in response to each type of prediction. A series of recent articles in scientific literature and the media claim that earthquakes cannot be predicted and that exceedingly high accuracy is needed for predictions to be of societal value. We dispute a number of their key assumptions and conclusions, including their claim that earthquakes represent a self-organized critical (SOC) phenomenon, implying a system maintained on the edge of chaotic behavior at all times. We think this is correct but only in an uninteresting way, that is on global or continental scales. The stresses in the regions surrounding the rupture zones of individual large earthquakes are reduced below a SOC state at the times of those events and remain so for long periods. As stresses are slowly re-established by tectonic loading, a region approaches a SOC state during the last part of the cycle of large earthquakes. The presence of that state can be regarded as a long-term precursor rather than as an impediment to prediction. We examine other natural processes such as volcanic eruptions, severe storms and climate change that, like earthquakes, are also examples of complex processes, each with its own predictable, possibly predictable and inherently unpredictable elements. That a natural system is complex does not mean that predictions are not possible for some spatial, temporal and size regimes. Long-term, and perhaps intermediate-term, predictions for large earthquakes appear to be possible for very active fault segments. Predicting large events more than one cycle into the future appears to be inherently difficult, if not impossible since much of the nonlinearity in the earthquake process occurs at or near the time of large events. Progress in earthquake science and prediction over the next few decades will require increased monitoring in several active areas.     

Dynamical Implications of Earthquake Modeling Using Stochastic Cellular Automata

Combining stochastic energy import and deterministic energy loss,this paper does digital modeling for earthquake events by using stochastic cellular automata(CA),and derives energy fractal dimension analysis and multifractal analysis for time sequences of "earthquake" events from this model.The preliminary results show that statistical energy-frequency distribution of many events yields to the classic Gutenberg-Richter relation; different energy initial statuses and propagation rules both influence the output of the model.The b value tightly correlates to model parameters.The complexity of earthquake phenomena essentially may be both stochastic and deterministic.     

高斯线调频连续小波变换的时频能量衰减因子方法及其应用

本文基于高斯线调频连续小波变换，提出了能够反映震源区或近场区小地震波形在震源深度、震源尺度、震源破裂机制、地震波传播途径、地震波衰减等方面的差异特征信息的特征指标，即小波变换的时频能量衰减因子方法。为了验证该方法的有效性，选取了震源破裂机制有明显差异特性的天然地震、爆破或塌方资料以及非强地震孕震区同一地点发生的多次小震资料。研究结果表明，天然地震与爆破或塌方记录的连续小波变换时频能量衰减因子有明显区别；正常地震活动背景下地震记录的连续小波变换时频能量衰减因子变化比较稳定；利用该方法，通过对某一地区的连续观测，可望为强震预测提供有效判据。     

Self-organized criticality and earthquake predictability

We analyse a seismic catalogue of South California to investigate the possibility of earthquake prediction using the hypothesis that the seismic events are self-organized critical phenomena. The relation found previously is valid only in a mean field approximation, but cannot be used for earthquake prediction because the time clustering of seismic events makes the definition of a standard deviation of waiting times of earthquakes impossible.     

The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the preslip and cascade models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.     

中国地震科学实验场地震时空演变规律研究

通过分析某一区域地震事件的时空演化过程可以了解该区域地震的演化特征,为评估该地区地震的危险性提供依据。基于中国地震科学实验场2000年至2019年3.0级以上的地震事件数据,利用加权平均中心、标准差椭圆和全局空间自相关等空间统计学方法探索该地区地震事件的时空演变规律。结果表明:（1）汶川地震之后该地区地震的发生频次总体呈现出下降趋势,地震的活动性逐渐减弱。（2）地震加权平均中心呈现出"折返"型的移动规律,在东北-西南方向上来回震荡。（3）地震事件的空间分布呈现"东北-西南"格局走向,与映秀-北川断裂带的方向基本一致。（4）该地区地震事件的空间分布模式以聚集模式为主,且正处于上升阶段,但上升速度较为缓慢。     

The Time-Frequency Energy Attenuation Factor and Its Application on the Basis of Gauss Linear Frequency-Modulated Continuous Wavelet Transform

Based on the Gauss linear frequency-modulated wavelet transform, a new characteristic index is presented, namely time-frequency energy attenuation factor which can reflect the difference features of waveform in earthquake focus mechanism, wave traveling path and its attenuation characteristics in focal area or near field. In order to test its validity, we select the natural earthquakes and explosion or collapse events whose focus mechanisms vary obviously, and some natural earthquakes located at the same site or in a very small area. The study indicates that the time-frequency energy attenuation factors of the natural earthquakes are obviously different with that of explosion or collapse events, and the change of the time-frequency energy attenuation factors is relatively stable for the earthquakes under the normal seismicity background. Using the above-mentioned method, it is expected to offer a useful criterion for strong earthquake prediction by continuous earthquake observation.