层结大气中重力惯性波的非线性周期解

本文在动量无辐散近似下的层结大气中,考虑密度空间分布的不均匀性引入非线性项,并假设解为行波形式,得到了一个二阶非线性系统。应用本系统不仅可以得到刘式适等(1984)所得到的一切结果,而且可以证明一次近似系统存在周期解时,非线性系统也存在周期解,且避免了应用级数展开时所带来的一些数学问题。文中还讨论了非线性系统的一系列近似解。     

对称不稳定的非线性问题和对称型重力惯性波的非线性周期解

本文利用密度的空间分布不均匀性引入非线性项，从准动量无辐散模式出发导出了一个自治的二阶非线性系统，应用这个系统讨论了非线性项对对称不稳定以及对称型重力惯性波非线性周期解的作用。从本系统的一次近似系统可得到类似Hoskins于1974年得到的结论，同样可导出对称不稳定的位涡判据。由于本系统是一有限次的非线性系统，故应用Poincare形式级数法可证明非线性周期解的存在性，并可求得周期解的一系列近似解。     

1991年江淮梅雨暴雨与亚洲季风的关系

利用实际大气参数取值进行尺度分析，求得斜压半地转模式中非线性斜压Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波的非频散周期解的存在条件与解。给出了能够描述非线性特性波动的无量纲拟能效ε，由此推导了非线性特征波动的波速公式及波参数间的一些诊断关系。     

Nondispersive Periodic Solution of a Barotropic Semi-Geostrophic Model

The existence and solution of the non-dispersive periodic solution are achieved concerning nonlinear barotropic Rossby waves of a barotropic semi-geostrophic model, demonstrating the likelihood of the Taylor evolution, together with the related dimensionless a-criterion. Finally, the wave velocity expression is proposed with some diagnostic relations among the wave parameters.     

On the Nonlinear Response of Lower Stratospheric Ozone to External Forces---The Inclusion of BrOx and Radiation Processes

In this paper the bromine family and radiative effects are considered in an updated box model under the framework of ozone-temperature feedback,in order to further analyze the possible behavior of atmospheric ozone in the lower mid-latitude stratosphere.Results show that this updated photochemical system can present several different solutions,within a certain domain of parameters,with fixed-point and periodic states appearing in turn.The temperature feedback effect introduced in this box model has not changed the topology of the ozone system.This result presents nonlinear characteristics of the ozone system,and possible trends in the stratospheric atmosphere between complex chemistry and radiation processes.     

中性和不稳定层结大气的孤立行波精确解

通过研究二维准动量无辐散、无摩擦层结大气非线性方程组的行波解问题证明，非线性行波解的本质属性是由参数ｂ的符号性质决定的。当ｂ＞０时，为周期解，其周期与相应的线性周期解的周期相等；当ｂ≤０时，为孤立波解。给出了一般行波解的解析表达式。并细致地研究了中性和不稳定层结大气中的孤立行波的特征，发现中性和不稳定层结大气中存在具有类似于飑线结构特征的孤立波。指出了中性和不稳定层结大气中的一般孤立行波物理量的分布特征。     

Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales

Trends in climate time series are often nonlinear and temporally-asymmetric, i.e. the trend is different for different seasons and/or hours of the day. Here a method is developed that allows the nonlinearity and temporal asymmetry of a trend to be investigated simultaneously. First, nonlinear trend components are extracted from a univariate time series, by adapting a nonparametric dimension-reduction method. Then, the nonlinear trend components are substituted into a regression model in which the periodic mean component and the periodic variation in the amplitude of the nonlinear trend are modeled using harmonic functions of the seasonal and diurnal periods. Third, trend patterns in the positive and negative anomalies are investigated, by extending the nonlinear trend model using indicator variables. Fourth, a non-local inferential test is developed to test the statistical significance of the trend patterns. The nonlinear trend model is applied to a simulated time series, as well as to long-term high-resolution temperature records from five Southern Hemisphere sites: Lucas Heights, Sydney Airport, Cape Grim, Macquarie Island and Law Dome. Our method should be generally useful for identifying the effect of both climate-related factors and observation/site-related factors on seasonal and diurnal trends in meteorological data series.     

利用一维时间序列确定吸引子维数中存在的若干问题

从一些控制方程已知的微分动力系统出发，利用它们不同分量、不同时间间隔的解序列重构相空间和原本相空间两种方式所得分维结果进行了比较，发现了一些有意义的事实，并探讨了用一维时间序列重构相空间确定吸引子维数的理论，揭示出其中存在的本质问题。最后指出，只有完全搞清动力系统的单分量序列采用怎样的延滞时间τ和怎样的采样间隔Ｈ延拓后才能保证重构相空间和原本相空间的度量性质不变时，我们才能获得真实、可靠、有用的结果。     

均匀基流中非线性行波解的稳定性及其存在条件

本文利用地转动量近似＾「１」并结合行波解的方法,研究了均匀基本气流中的层结大气非线性波动,首先由绝热无磨擦的闭合方程组导得关于垂直Ｐ速度的单一变量的非线性方程,然后讨论了非线性方程解的稳定性,并求得近似的非线性方程的椭圆余弦波和孤立波解及其存在条件。     

Study on Atmospheric Travelling Wave Solutions and Review of Its Present Developments

The scientific achievements of travelling waves in a barotropic atmosphere are introduced, including i) the existence conditions of periodic solutions (wavetrain solutions) and solitary wave solutions (pulse solutions), together with the solution finding methods and a series of related problems, ii) seeking solutions of monotonous wave (wave front) and of nonmonotonous travelling wave (oscillatory wave) by using phase plane shooting technique and hi) progress in the study of travelling wave solution at home and abroad. The investigation of travelling wave solutions in recent years has been found in mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology and other sciences. Over the past decade the problem has been the subject of much interest and become an important area of research. So it is no doubt of great significance to investigate the travelling wave solutions and thereby explain phenomena of weather.     

层结大气中非线性椭圆余弦波和孤立波的研究

在前文采用半地转近似和行波法来研究层结大气中的非线性波动的基础上,进一步探讨非线性方程及其级数近似方程的解的稳定性,波动解的存在条件和波动的一些特征。研究指出,在平衡点附近,将非线性方程用其级数近似方程代替是可行的、合理的。在初始拟能满足一定的条件下,椭圆余弦波和孤立波是存在的。文中还求得了椭圆余弦波解的周期、ｘ向波长和振幅以及孤立波的宽度和振幅。并指出,孤立波的宽度和振幅不但与波速有关,还与β因子和层结稳定度有关,而且在相同的某条件下,西行的混合Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ－重力孤立波比起东行的惯性重力孤立波来,宽度要小但振幅却大。     

Some Possible Solutions of Nonlinear Internal Inertial Gravity Wave Equations in the Atmosphere

Ｓｏｍｅ　Ｐｏｓｓｉｂｌｅ　Ｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｓ　ｏｆ　Ｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒ　Ｉｎｔｅｒｎａｌ　Ｉｎｅｒｔｉａｌ　Ｇｒａｖｉｔｙ　Ｗａｖｅ　Ｅｑｕａｔｉｏｎｓ　ｉｎ　ｔｈｅ　ＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｅＬｉＧｕｏｐｉｎｇａｎｄＬｕＪｉｎｇｈｕａ（ＣｈｅｎｇｄｕＩ...     

Nonlinear waves in barotropic model

In this paper, from the system of equation describing a barotropic atmosphere using the method of Taylor expansion for the nonlinear terms, the periodic solutions of the nonlinear inertio-surface gravity waves and Rossby waves have been obtained.The finite-amplitude nonlinear inertio-surface gravity waves and Rossby waves with horizontal divergence satisfy all the KdV equation. The solutions are all the cnoidal function, i, e, the cnoidal waves which in-clude the linear waves and form the solitary waves under certain conditions. For the finite-amplitude Rossby waves with horizontal divergence, we find the new dispersive relation including both the wave number and the amplitude parameter. In case of small amplitude it is reduced to the Yeh formula. It is shown that the larger the amplitude and width, the faster the finite-amplitude inertio-surface gravity waves and the slower the finite-amplitude Rossby waves with horizontal divergence propagate. The blocking or cut-off system in which the amplitude and width are large may be considered as Rossby solitary waves.     

Time-Dependent Solutions to the Fokker-Planck Equation of Maximum Reduced Air-Sea Coupling Climate Model

1. IntroductionAir-sea interaction is an important physical pro-cess in the climate system. Because oceans occupy twothirds of the earth's surface, and have a tremendousthermal inertia, oceans exert an extremely importantinfluence on atmospheric motion, and the air-sea inter-action becomes a core item of climate change studies.Contrarily, the atmosphere constrains the motion ofseawater through wind drifts and heat transfer. Withregard to the hotspot problem of global warming, theocean is a mos…     

STUDY OF NONLINEAR ROSSBY WAVES IN THE ATMOSPHERE UNDER SEMI-GEOSTROPHIC APPROXIMATION

Under semi-geostrophic approximation the nonlinear ordinary differential equations are obtained for the motion inthe barotropic and baroclinic atmospheres with the effects of zonal shear basic flow and topographic forcing included.Two constraints are acquired of finite-amplitude periodic and solitary waves in the original model with the aid of thephase-plane geometric qualitative theory of a dynamic system defined by the differential equation.The explicit solutionof the nonlinear waves is found by means of the approximation method and some significant results are achieved.     

STUDY OF NONLINEAR ROSSBY WAVES IN THE ATMOSPHERE UNDER SEMI-GEOSTROPHIC APPROXIMATION*

Under semi-geostrophic approximation the nonlinear ordinary differential equations are obtained for the motion in the barotropic and baroclinic atmospheres with the effects of zonal shear basic flow and topographic forcing included.Two constraints are acquired of finite-amplitude periodic and solitary waves in the original model with the aid of the phase-plane geometric qualitative theory of a dynamic system defined by the differential equation.The explicit solution of the nonlinear waves is found by means of the approximation method and some significant results are achieved.     

发展方程的非线性计算不稳定问题

进一步讨论了有关非线性不稳定的一些问题,其主要内容有： １．考察了有代表性的三类发展方程,指出其对应的差分格式是否出现非线性计算不稳定,与原微分方程解的性质密切相关。 ２．进一步讨论了带周期边条件的守恒型差分格式的非线性计算稳定性问题,总结了克服非线性不稳定的有效措施。 ３．以非线性平流方程为例,着重分析了带非周期边条件的非守恒差分格式的非线性计算稳定性问题,给出了判别其计算稳定性的“综合分析判别法”。     

应用自激励门限自回归模式对旱涝游程序列的模拟和预报

在用AR、ARMA等线性模式对气候序列进行拟合和预报时,由于气候序列中存在着非线性变化,所以拟合和预报效果往往不太理想。本文首次用非线性自激励门限自回归模式(SETAR)对由北京511年(1470—1980年)历史旱涝记录变换的湿涝(干旱)游程记录进行了模拟和预报,解决了长期以来预报方程不能随转折点变更的问题。拟合和预报结果表明:门限自回归模式的拟合和预报效果比线性AR模式有明显提高。AR模式只能预报出2年长度以下的游程转折点,而SETAR模式能较准确地预报出3年长度以上的游程转折点。这可能是因为在预报过程中SETAR模式能按游程转折点更新模式,而且模式建立时不要求序列具有平稳性的缘故。     

飑线的非线性重力波行波解模型

本文提出了一个飑线的非线性重力波行波解模型,并将该模型与实际飑线作了比较,结果表明,该模型可反映出飑线的主要特征.     

Stochastic Modeling of the Van Lake Monthly Level Fluctuations in Turkey

Summary  Planning, design, construction and operation of lakeshore structures require information about the future likely extremes of the lake levels at a given risk percentage. Alternative future likely synthetic sequences can be numerically generated provided that the underlying generating mechanism of the lake level fluctuation phenomenon is identified. Simple linear and periodic nonlinear models are used for modeling the deterministic part in the lake level records. Linear trend is eliminated from the original lake level historic data by regression line technique. The nonlinear part needs two stages for its identification. First Fourier series is applied to model interannual periodicities in the lake level fluctuation series and then monthly standardization procedure is applied for seasonal periodic nonlinear component modeling. A second order Markov model is found suitable for the remaining stochastic parts. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van monthly level data in eastern Turkey. Suitable models are identified and their parameters are estimated for trend, periodic and stochastic parts. Likely, synthetic lake levels are generated by the stochastic model and hence lake level extreme values are depicted for the next 2, 6, 12, 24, 60 and 120 months with risk calculations. Such risk calculations take into account the stochastic characteristics of the lake level fluctuations only. The deterministic parts as linear trends and periodicities are added to the stochastic extreme events for the actual simulation of the lake levels. The model presented in this paper is not for time prediction of future lake levels but rather for the simulation of possible equally likely extreme lake level value occurrences over any desired future period. Received April 22, 1998/Revised July 28, 1999